List Mgmt. 2019 Draft Prospects

[TBOW]

Go back and watch his work in the GF, lots to like imo

Kicks off both feet! Amazing!

 

[dogwatch]

One thing clubs would always be aiming for with their first round picks is to get a player who becomes elite. Handy "best 22" players abound (B-graders for want of a better term) and can usually be picked up fairly easily in the trade period, but elite player are scarce - it's always best (and cheapest) to secure them at the draft.

This all sounds Captain Obvious but it's surely a factor in deciding whether to trade down 2-for-1. Will I blow the chance of finding that elite player? Hypothetically, what if we'd traded pick 9 in 2017 to get highly rated Aiden Bonar (11) and Jack Higgins (17)? Pick 9 for 11 and 17 sounds great - it's a bout a 900 point upgrade - but we'd (probably) have missed out on the steal of the draft, Aaron Naughton.

In any draft there are usually only around 5-10 who become elite so it's an important consideration. What makes the choice tricky is that the elite players don't always go top 10 so if you have at least one player in mind who you think will slide it could be very attractive, especially with live trading allowing you to watch the progress of the early picks first.

Some examples from the ten most recent drafts starting at 2017 (pick in the teens or slightly higher, i.e. players who were definitely on the scouts' radar):

2017 - Tim Kelly (24)​

2016 - Tim English (19) - not yet elite, but heading that way​

2015 - Josh Dunkley (25)​

2014 - not a great draft - maybe Mitch McGovern at 43? (probably not "elite" though)​

2013 - Patrick Cripps (13) or if that's too early then how about Matt Crouch (23)?​

2012 - Brodie Grundy (18)​

2011 - Brad Hill (33)​

2010 - Isaac Smith (19)​

2009 - Nat Fyfe (20)​

2008 - maybe David Zaharakis? (23), if not then Dayne Beams (29)​

On what little I know of this year's draft crop I'd certainly be interested in trading down 2-for-1 this year as long as we still had a pick in the mid-late teens and another < 25 pick. The evenness of it after about pick 12 is a factor in my mind.

Obviously it all depends on who Sam Power has his eye on. If he's convinced he has an elite player at 13 then he should hold on to it.

 

[Virgin Dog]

One thing clubs would always be aiming for with their first round picks is to get a player who becomes elite. Handy "best 22" players abound (B-graders for want of a better term) and can usually be picked up fairly easily in the trade period, but elite player are scarce - it's always best (and cheapest) to secure them at the draft.

This all sounds Captain Obvious but it's surely a factor in deciding whether to trade down 2-for-1. Will I blow the chance of finding that elite player? Hypothetically, what if we'd traded pick 9 in 2017 to get highly rated Aiden Bonar (11) and Jack Higgins (17)? Pick 9 for 11 and 17 sounds great - it's a bout a 900 point upgrade - but we'd have missed out on the steal of the draft, Aaron Naughton.

In any draft there are usually only around 5-10 who become elite so it's an important consideration. What makes the choice tricky is that the elite players don't always go top 10 so if you have at least one player in mind who you think will slide it could be very attractive, especially with live trading allowing you to watch the progress of the early picks first.

Some examples from the ten most recent drafts starting at 2017 (pick in the teens or slightly higher, i.e. players who were definitely on the scouts' radar):

2017 - Tim Kelly (24)​

2016 - Tim English (19) - not yet elite, but heading that way​

2015 - Josh Dunkley (25)​

2014 - not a great draft - maybe Mitch McGovern at 43? (probably not "elite" though)​

2013 - Patrick Cripps (13) or if that's too early then how about Matt Crouch (23)?​

2012 - Brodie Grundy (18)​

2011 - Brad Hill (33)​

2010 - Isaac Smith (19)​

2009 - Nat Fyfe (20)​

2008 - maybe David Zaharakis? (23), if not then Dayne Beams (29)​

On what little I know of this year's draft crop I'd certainly be interested in trading down 2-for-1 this year as long as we still had a pick in the mid-late teens and another < 25 pick. The evenness of it after about pick 12 is a factor in my mind.

Obviously it all depends on who Sam Power has his eye on. If he's convinced he has an elite player at 13 then he should hold on to it.

An example for 2014 could be Caleb Daniel. He was extremely highly rated, one of the top performers all year, but his height meant he slid all the way to us at 46. Sometimes, finding the player with a point of difference (CD with his ball usage) can be worth doing when other clubs focus too much on their downsides.

Kemp is an ideal example here - sliding thanks to his ACL. Others include Dylan Williams (injury troubles all year) and Mitch Georgiades (quad, missed most of this year). Otherwise, Sam Philp could be the type later in the draft (possibly Pick 53 if we don't move). Very good in congestion, won the combine sprint and came top 10 in yoyo and vertical leap. Absolute athlete, but will slide as his kicking has serious question marks and I feel he hasn't responded to coaching as well as he could have

 

[Mofra]

An example for 2014 could be Caleb Daniel. He was extremely highly rated, one of the top performers all year, but his height meant he slid all the way to us at 46. Sometimes, finding the player with a point of difference (CD with his ball usage) can be worth doing when other clubs focus too much on their downsides.

Kemp is an ideal example here - sliding thanks to his ACL. Others include Dylan Williams (injury troubles all year) and Mitch Georgiades (quad, missed most of this year). Otherwise, Sam Philp could be the type later in the draft (possibly Pick 53 if we don't move). Very good in congestion, won the combine sprint and came top 10 in yoyo and vertical leap. Absolute athlete, but will slide as his kicking has serious question marks and I feel he hasn't responded to coaching as well as he could have

Elijah Taylor. Probably top 5 on talent, concerns how he'd go in a professional environment.
Later in the draft, Rhi-Arn Cox the same.

Kemp and Williams fit the bill too, as you've noted.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Elijah Taylor. Probably top 5 on talent, concerns how he'd go in a professional environment.
Later in the draft, Rhi-Arn Cox the same.

Kemp and Williams fit the bill too, as you've noted.

Taylor is another perfect example that I'd forgotten. I would personally rate him easily top 10 on talent, but the concerns over his mindset (particularly the homesickness thing) have him sliding in most phantom drafts.

If we could back in our staff to keep him comfortable in Vic, I'd love to take the punt on him. Could be a top 5 in the draft in terms of career success

 

[fronkalicious]

Teams want at kemp and Robertson. We’re in a great spot.

 

[dogwatch]

OK we'll know tonight who our first draft pick is (unless we trade completely out of the first round). We've talked about it for interminable weeks. Months even. We've got a draft guru thread to see who predicts best what will happen.

But who do you WANT? Just one name please. No discussion. No either/or.

For the sake of the exercise let's assume what most phantom and mock drafts have done is correct and that the following 13 players are gone by the time we get our pick at 13, 14 or 15 (or whatever it ends up being):

ROWELL
ANDERSON
YOUNG
JACKSON
FLANDERS
GREEN
ROBERTSON
ASH
SERONG
STEPHENS
McASEY
HENRY
KEMP

This means that Worrell, Bergman, Weightman and Pickett are still there. And plenty of other good prospects too.

So who is YOUR choice? (You are allowed the "trade down" option but you can't name any players if you do)

Mine is Weightman.

 

[cherrypie]

One thing clubs would always be aiming for with their first round picks is to get a player who becomes elite. Handy "best 22" players abound (B-graders for want of a better term) and can usually be picked up fairly easily in the trade period, but elite player are scarce - it's always best (and cheapest) to secure them at the draft.

This all sounds Captain Obvious but it's surely a factor in deciding whether to trade down 2-for-1. Will I blow the chance of finding that elite player? Hypothetically, what if we'd traded pick 9 in 2017 to get highly rated Aiden Bonar (11) and Jack Higgins (17)? Pick 9 for 11 and 17 sounds great - it's a bout a 900 point upgrade - but we'd (probably) have missed out on the steal of the draft, Aaron Naughton.

In any draft there are usually only around 5-10 who become elite so it's an important consideration. What makes the choice tricky is that the elite players don't always go top 10 so if you have at least one player in mind who you think will slide it could be very attractive, especially with live trading allowing you to watch the progress of the early picks first.

Some examples from the ten most recent drafts starting at 2017 (pick in the teens or slightly higher, i.e. players who were definitely on the scouts' radar):

2017 - Tim Kelly (24)​

2016 - Tim English (19) - not yet elite, but heading that way​

2015 - Josh Dunkley (25)​

2014 - not a great draft - maybe Mitch McGovern at 43? (probably not "elite" though)​

2013 - Patrick Cripps (13) or if that's too early then how about Matt Crouch (23)?​

2012 - Brodie Grundy (18)​

2011 - Brad Hill (33)​

2010 - Isaac Smith (19)​

2009 - Nat Fyfe (20)​

2008 - maybe David Zaharakis? (23), if not then Dayne Beams (29)​

On what little I know of this year's draft crop I'd certainly be interested in trading down 2-for-1 this year as long as we still had a pick in the mid-late teens and another < 25 pick. The evenness of it after about pick 12 is a factor in my mind.

Obviously it all depends on who Sam Power has his eye on. If he's convinced he has an elite player at 13 then he should hold on to it.

As a random comparison, Pick 13 vs Pick 20+21 in the past 10 drafts

• Isaac Quaynor vs Riley Collier-Dawkins + Ely Smith
• Jarrod Brander vs Callum Coleman-Jones + Oscar Allen
• Daniel Venables vs Isaac Cumming + Will Hayward
• Matthew Kennedy vs Brayden Fiorini + Ben McKay
• Lachie Weller vs Jayden Laverde + Hugh Goddard
• Patrick Cripps vs Jack Leslie + Jarman Impey
• Jesse Lonergan vs Tim Broomhead + Nathan Hrovat
• Taylor Adams vs Hayden Crozier + Tom Mitchell
• Seb Tape vs Jayden Pitt + Jed Lamb
• Daniel Talia vs Nathan Fyfe + Ryan Bastinac

 

[True Dog]

Pickett

 

[Pugz89]

Bianco is meh, id rather us take someone with a higher ceiling with the second pick.

 

[The Inbetweener]

On the contrary, it seems you have a real talent for picking the dud player - thats invaluable information!

Who do YOU prefer Picket or Weightman? Be honest.

Weightman, so watch Pickett become a star!

 

[Pugz89]

Teams want at kemp and Robertson. We’re in a great spot.

Would not surprise me if this is why Power was so strong with not giving up the pick during trade period. It's a buyers market during trade period, sellers market on draft night.

 

[Testekill]

Bianco is meh, id rather us take someone with a higher ceiling with the second pick.

Yeah Bianco strikes me as a high floor, lower ceiling player. Comes in ready to go but doesn't have the scope of improvement that other 1st rounders have. A safe pick but not a glamorous pick

 

[Bro_Pro]

OK we'll know tonight who our first draft pick is (unless we trade completely out of the first round). We've talked about it for interminable weeks. Months even. We've got a draft guru thread to see who predicts best what will happen.

But who do you WANT? Just one name please. No discussion. No either/or.

For the sake of the exercise let's assume what most phantom and mock drafts have done is correct and that the following 13 players are gone by the time we get our pick at 13, 14 or 15 (or whatever it ends up being):

ROWELL
ANDERSON
YOUNG
JACKSON
FLANDERS
GREEN
ROBERTSON
ASH
SERONG
STEPHENS
McASEY
HENRY
KEMP

This means that Worrell, Bergman, Weightman and Pickett are still there. And plenty of other good prospects too.

So who is YOUR choice? (You are allowed the "trade down" option but you can't name any players if you do)

Mine is Weightman.

McASEY Hands down

 

[weltschmerz]

Weightman.

 

[weltschmerz]

McASEY Hands down

Unfortunately off the board in this situation.

 

[TBOW]

Bianco is meh, id rather us take someone with a higher ceiling with the second pick.

I don't mind the look of Ralphsmith at that later pick. Tall, fast outside type.

Actually looks like he and Bergman were seperated at birth.
Same height and everything. Weird.

 

[Mojorisin]

I don't mind the look of Ralphsmith at that later pick. Tall, fast outside type.

Actually looks like he and Bergman were seperated at birth.
Same height and everything. Weird.

View attachment 785552 View attachment 785553

Sharp and ralphsmith is something I could get behind

 

[Pugz89]

I don't mind the look of Ralphsmith at that later pick. Tall, fast outside type.

Actually looks like he and Bergman were seperated at birth.
Same height and everything. Weird.

View attachment 785552 View attachment 785553

Probably a reach if it was a pick around the early 20s and won't last til our pick in the 50s imo.

 

[weltschmerz]

I’ve mostly seen people rate Ralphsmith in the 30s and 40s. Don’t think he’s worth an early 20s pick.

 

[Bro_Pro]

Unfortunately off the board in this situation.

I know but I’ll take kemp as a slider in the draft

 

[murphy's twin]

Sharp and ralphsmith is something I could get behind

Weightman and Sharp

 

[TBOW]

I’ve mostly seen people rate Ralphsmith in the 30s and 40s. Don’t think he’s worth an early 20s pick.

It's all speculation at this point.
A lot of those guys rated in the early 20's don't seem to fill a need for us and I like Ralphsmiths 30 seconds of highlights

 

[Virgin Dog]

OK we'll know tonight who our first draft pick is (unless we trade completely out of the first round). We've talked about it for interminable weeks. Months even. We've got a draft guru thread to see who predicts best what will happen.

But who do you WANT? Just one name please. No discussion. No either/or.

For the sake of the exercise let's assume what most phantom and mock drafts have done is correct and that the following 13 players are gone by the time we get our pick at 13, 14 or 15 (or whatever it ends up being):

ROWELL
ANDERSON
YOUNG
JACKSON
FLANDERS
GREEN
ROBERTSON
ASH
SERONG
STEPHENS
McASEY
HENRY
KEMP

This means that Worrell, Bergman, Weightman and Pickett are still there. And plenty of other good prospects too.

So who is YOUR choice? (You are allowed the "trade down" option but you can't name any players if you do)

Mine is Weightman.

Weightman

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

OK we'll know tonight who our first draft pick is (unless we trade completely out of the first round). We've talked about it for interminable weeks. Months even. We've got a draft guru thread to see who predicts best what will happen.

But who do you WANT? Just one name please. No discussion. No either/or.

For the sake of the exercise let's assume what most phantom and mock drafts have done is correct and that the following 13 players are gone by the time we get our pick at 13, 14 or 15 (or whatever it ends up being):

ROWELL
ANDERSON
YOUNG
JACKSON
FLANDERS
GREEN
ROBERTSON
ASH
SERONG
STEPHENS
McASEY
HENRY
KEMP

This means that Worrell, Bergman, Weightman and Pickett are still there. And plenty of other good prospects too.

So who is YOUR choice? (You are allowed the "trade down" option but you can't name any players if you do)

Mine is Weightman.

Pickett. We're pretty set for goalkickers so I'd take the best pressure forward.