2019 Draft thread

briztoon

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Listening to Conole on Road to the Draft talking about this years draft pool. Paraphrasing as close as possible

"After the first 4 or 5 picks, the draft really opens up. Clubs could see kids they have early on their draft boards slide, or kids that go earlier than some clubs might expect.

There's some top talent, but their skill set isn't kicking and ball use. Their weapons are elsewhere, while skills are an area for growth, for clubs to work on. The elite players aren't fantastic ball users."
 

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briztoon

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Pretty good year to rise to the top then. Thrive on getting elite ball users.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Many of the better ball users, who like likely to be available outside the top 10, are on the short side.

The exception that springs immediately to mind is Trent Rivers. East Fremantle colts captain. Played as a general defender for WA, but plays as a tall inside mid at WAFL colts level. A very composed player, makes good decisions and capable of assessing his options and change his target pretty fast.
 

briztoon

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Another option is Trent Bianco, a short HBF, very good skills on both sides, is fast, but not Zac Bailey fast. Has a good contested side to his game and does play inside mid at NAB league when Rowell and Anderson are playing school footy.
 

buttermuffs

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Many of the better ball users, who like likely to be available outside the top 10, are on the short side.

The exception that springs immediately to mind is Trent Rivers. East Fremantle colts captain. Played as a general defender for WA, but plays as a tall inside mid at WAFL colts level. A very composed player, makes good decisions and capable of assessing his options and change his target pretty fast.
Where is he projected to go?

In the end, I’d probably be in favour of trading out of this years draft. We have two or three academy guys that we could pick up and I feel like the picks will probably be used to bring some interested players in. Trent Rivers does not sound bad though, we are in need of a taller midfielder (other than Berry).
 

briztoon

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Where is he projected to go?

In the end, I’d probably be in favour of trading out of this years draft. We have two or three academy guys that we could pick up and I feel like the picks will probably be used to bring some interested players in. Trent Rivers does not sound bad though, we are in need of a taller midfielder (other than Berry).
Really depends, as Conole said, clubs could have a wide variation on players standings.

Immune guess is in the 15 to 25 range.
 

mick1013

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Jeremy Sharp, East Perth. One I think will really suit our needs especially in a few years when Rich retires. He has speed & an elite damaging kick?
Also watch for Sam Flanders or Deven Robertson slide down to our Collingwood pick.
 

briztoon

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Jeremy Sharp is a somewhat polarising kid with draft watchers.

Some have him as a top 15 talent, while others have him in the 20 to 30 range.

I’ve said before, he’s the Tom Cutler of this years draft.

He has the physical gifts and skills to be an elite winger.

But he’s very outside, won’t put his head over the ball or go in when it’s his turn, and wouldn’t work defensively.

This isn’t a biased opinion. This is what everyone saw at this years Champs. There were draft watchers sitting next to the WA bench who witnessed the WA coach really rip in to Sharp a couple of times for his lack of defensive efforts and lack of team play.


As for Deven Robertson, he doesn’t offer anything different to Corey Lyons or Tom Joyce. I’d have Tom Joyce ahead of Robertson, as Joyce has better hands and is a far better kick.

Robertson for me clearly demonstrates how shallow this draft is, in that he’s widely spoken about as a mid first round pick.
 

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bungalow_bill

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Jeremy Sharp is a somewhat polarising kid with draft watchers.

Some have him as a top 15 talent, while others have him in the 20 to 30 range.

I’ve said before, he’s the Tom Cutler of this years draft.

He has the physical gifts and skills to be an elite winger.

But he’s very outside, won’t put his head over the ball or go in when it’s his turn, and wouldn’t work defensively.

This isn’t a biased opinion. This is what everyone saw at this years Champs. There were draft watchers sitting next to the WA bench who witnessed the WA coach really rip in to Sharp a couple of times for his lack of defensive efforts and lack of team play.


As for Deven Robertson, he doesn’t offer anything different to Corey Lyons or Tom Joyce. I’d have Tom Joyce ahead of Robertson, as Joyce has better hands and is a far better kick.

Robertson for me clearly demonstrates how shallow this draft is, in that he’s widely spoken about as a mid first round pick.
Isn't there a correlation between low contested ball numbers and chances of succeeding at AFL level?
 

briztoon

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Isn't there a correlation between low contested ball numbers and chances of succeeding at AFL level?
That's been discussed before on the Draft page. I can't remember the exact percentage, whether it's 15%, 20% or 25%.

You can view some of the Stats for the Champs here. Just scroll down.

Role in the team also plays apart, and the teams style of play also plays a part. I'm not sure if Sharp's style of game will fit in with how Fagan wants our wingers to play.

It's hard to read to much in to the contested possession stats for the HBF's, general defenders and wingers from this years Champs, as there was a lot of just plain bombing it in to the forward lines with out looking, followed by a lot of uncontested marks by the defenders, and then kicks out to the wing for another uncontested mark by the outside runners.

It's been repeatedly noted by draft watchers and club recruiters on Twomey's podcast, this years champs was really poor for skills.


Dylan Stephens, Mitch O'Neill and Trent Bianco all have games that would suit Fagan's game plan. But as players they're all on the shorter and lighter side, compared too Sharp (187cm 79kg). All three are willing to put their head over the ball, despite their smaller frames. Stephens (183cm 69kg) might be the most natural, two way runner in the draft pool, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was near the top of the yo yo test. O'Neill (181cm 70kg) is probably the most aggressive, little hard nut. And Bianco (176cm 70kg) has the best skills of the three, and can play both sides of his body.
 

jason pm

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IIRC Jimmy Toumpas was a highly rated junior and went pick 4 with a substantial weakness in the contested ball area, there were others but I can't recall them off hand, I think that influenced some future decisions.

I know that Knightmare on the Draft board puts an extremely high value on contested ball ability when assessing junior talent.
 

mick1013

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Jeremy Sharp is a somewhat polarising kid with draft watchers.

Some have him as a top 15 talent, while others have him in the 20 to 30 range.

I’ve said before, he’s the Tom Cutler of this years draft.

He has the physical gifts and skills to be an elite winger.

But he’s very outside, won’t put his head over the ball or go in when it’s his turn, and wouldn’t work defensively.

This isn’t a biased opinion. This is what everyone saw at this years Champs. There were draft watchers sitting next to the WA bench who witnessed the WA coach really rip in to Sharp a couple of times for his lack of defensive efforts and lack of team play.


As for Deven Robertson, he doesn’t offer anything different to Corey Lyons or Tom Joyce. I’d have Tom Joyce ahead of Robertson, as Joyce has better hands and is a far better kick.

Robertson for me clearly demonstrates how shallow this draft is, in that he’s widely spoken about as a mid first round pick.
So basically trade our first rounder in a package to get something decent in (maybe go higher in draft or bring outside talent in)?
 

dlanod

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IIRC Jimmy Toumpas was a highly rated junior and went pick 4 with a substantial weakness in the contested ball area, there were others but I can't recall them off hand, I think that influenced some future decisions.
Aish. O'Rourke. Mayes. Hoskin-Elliott.

There are others, like Polec, Scully and some of the West Coast early picks, that have a combination of disposal efficiency, speed and endurance that lets them play effective uncontested games but they are the exceptions and generally also haven't lived up to their draft selection - they've just had meaningful careers instead of a general flop.
 

briztoon

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Aish. O'Rourke. Mayes. Hoskin-Elliott.

There are others, like Polec, Scully and some of the West Coast early picks, that have a combination of disposal efficiency, speed and endurance that lets them play effective uncontested games but they are the exceptions and generally also haven't lived up to their draft selection - they've just had meaningful careers instead of a general flop.
Who was the winger delisted by Hawthorn when Fagan came across? Hartung, he's another.

Thats when there was a big discussion on the draft board about wingers with low contested possession percentage. I believe at the time, a lot of the discussion was about Patrick Naish in his draft year, because Cal Twomey rated him as a top 15 kid, but he had a CP% of about 15% through the TAC cup and U18 Championships. Richmond ended up matching a bid in the mid 30's for him.


Of the three players I've mentioned, plus Sharp, rough CP% from the U18 Champs:
Sharp - 23.2%
Stephens - 33.3%
O'Neill - 36.6%
Bianco - 32.3

Another kid I like, Elijah Taylor, a HFF who can play wing. 38.7%CP.

Noah Cumberland from our academy, 59.6%CP. And Will Martyn from our academy, 36.7%CP.
 

briztoon

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So basically trade our first rounder in a package to get something decent in (maybe go higher in draft or bring outside talent in)?
Trading for a best 22 player is my preferred option with our first pick, and this is coming from someone who is heavily in to the draft.

I really dislike many of the kids projected in the 10 to 20 range. It's not so much that I don't like them, it's more that they don't represent good value in that range, as in previous years, many would be similar to talent drafted in the second round. Why spend a mid first round pick on borderline second round talent.

Add in a probable Gold Coast pick 1 Priority Pick, and I really dislike the second half of the first round.


It's a big reason why I rate the WA ruck, Luke Jackson so highly. After the probable top 10, he represents far better value than most of the other kids in the draft. Not only was he by far the dominant ruck at the Championships, winning 147 HO across four games of the Championships, compared to 88 for the next best, he averaged 4.5 clearances per game, laid 2.8 tackles, 2 I50's, and 14.5 disposals per game to go with a CP% of 70% on 15.75 possessions per game. He projects to be Stef Martin with a better kick.


If we kept our first pick in the draft, I'd consider going in to the draft with a list of names where we hope one slides to our pick, say Will Gould, Dylan Stephens, Brodie Kemp or Sam Flanders. If they're all off the board, I'd consider doing a live trade of our first pick to another club for a 2020 future first round pick. Teams such as Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney, possibly even Adelaide if they have a list clean out.

Then we just take an extra pick in to the rookie draft, and at worst draft one of our overlooked academy kids, instead of having them play on in 2020 as an overage U19 academy kid.

Or just draft Luke Jackson.


There should be far better value at our Gold Coast pick. There's a decent chance Jeremy Sharp slides on draft night if clubs have the same opinion of some of the draft watchers. Otherwise, there's a very good chance Trent Bianco and Trent Rivers are there, same with Will Day or Elijah Taylor. At worst Cooper Stephens, a tall inside mid from the Geelong Falcons, who has missed most of the year with a broken leg.
 

BigCat2

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Also will be interesting to see if the draft runs over 2 days again. Last year, the first pick on fay 2 became highly valued because teams have reassessed overnight and want to trade up to get a player they really want. We should keep pick 19 available for live trading.
 

briztoon

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Keidean Coleman and Kobe Tozer the only Brisbane boys invited to the State combine.

Candidates needed a minimum of two invites to be invited to the various State combines.
 

Fatcat08

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Trading for a best 22 player is my preferred option with our first pick, and this is coming from someone who is heavily in to the draft.

I really dislike many of the kids projected in the 10 to 20 range. It's not so much that I don't like them, it's more that they don't represent good value in that range, as in previous years, many would be similar to talent drafted in the second round. Why spend a mid first round pick on borderline second round talent.

Add in a probable Gold Coast pick 1 Priority Pick, and I really dislike the second half of the first round.


It's a big reason why I rate the WA ruck, Luke Jackson so highly. After the probable top 10, he represents far better value than most of the other kids in the draft. Not only was he by far the dominant ruck at the Championships, winning 147 HO across four games of the Championships, compared to 88 for the next best, he averaged 4.5 clearances per game, laid 2.8 tackles, 2 I50's, and 14.5 disposals per game to go with a CP% of 70% on 15.75 possessions per game. He projects to be Stef Martin with a better kick.


If we kept our first pick in the draft, I'd consider going in to the draft with a list of names where we hope one slides to our pick, say Will Gould, Dylan Stephens, Brodie Kemp or Sam Flanders. If they're all off the board, I'd consider doing a live trade of our first pick to another club for a 2020 future first round pick. Teams such as Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney, possibly even Adelaide if they have a list clean out.

Then we just take an extra pick in to the rookie draft, and at worst draft one of our overlooked academy kids, instead of having them play on in 2020 as an overage U19 academy kid.

Or just draft Luke Jackson.


There should be far better value at our Gold Coast pick. There's a decent chance Jeremy Sharp slides on draft night if clubs have the same opinion of some of the draft watchers. Otherwise, there's a very good chance Trent Bianco and Trent Rivers are there, same with Will Day or Elijah Taylor. At worst Cooper Stephens, a tall inside mid from the Geelong Falcons, who has missed most of the year with a broken leg.
The concept of value is an interesting one and certainly a much larger focus of draft watchers more so than clubs recruiters themselves. If there's "Value" at pick 19 than you're usually happy taking them 4 or 5 spots earlier. It's a mindset difference really. As a draft observer people are evaluating all clubs picks so the notion of value is a more important metric as people naturally want to be rated against others. But for a club they have a list of requirements they want to fill and it just becomes about who best suits that list at the spot they're picking.
 

briztoon

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Cal Twomey’s August Phantom Form Guide.



I would be ecstatic if these three players were available at these picks.
13. Dylan Stephens
8/1/01
183cm/70kg
South Australia/Norwood
Midfielder


Stephens saved his best game of the championships for last, when he performed well for South Australia against the Allies. He has done some nice things at senior level for Norwood, including a classy goal two weeks ago against North Adelaide that saw him zip away from the centre square, accelerate when under pressure and nail the running shot. Continues to show Andrew Gaff-like tendencies as a run and carry left-footer.

14. Luke Jackson
29/9/01
198cm/94kg
Western Australia/East Fremantle
Ruckman


It was a standout game for Jackson at colts level last week, with the ruckman getting 25 disposals and having 36 hitouts for East Fremantle. He's had a very strong season and elevated himself to be the premier ruck choice, particularly after a commanding under-18 carnival for Western Australia. Jackson has proved his ability at ground level to not only win his hitouts but follow that up around the ground to be a physical and intimidating presence. A number of clubs rate him as a top-10 pick.


15. Will Gould
14/1/01
191cm/98kg
South Australia/Glenelg
Defender


Has been playing at senior level throughout this season and has continued to show what he does well: rebound off half-back, kick the ball with penetration and match up on senior types. He has as good a CV as any of the draft hopefuls with his back-to-back All Australian jumpers and being a regular senior in the SANFL. Will be fascinating to see where clubs view Gould on draft night given his maturity as a prospect already.
And no Jeremy Sharp in Twomey's top 30.
 

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