2019 Draft thread

[mpal6]

If Kemp hadn’t ruptured his ACL I’d genuinely consider it. Otherwise I just don’t believe there’s another kid in the top 6 who’s worth giving up 16 and 21 for, let alone adding 34.

And how does GWS land back at pick 22 from this trade?

I have the bid coming it at pick 4 from Adelaide, which requires all of pick 16, and half of pick 21, which generates a residual pick at pick 41.

So GWS get Green, picks 34 and 41 from the trade, plus they keep their own pick 40.

Found it. I see the mistake I made earlier - looks like I calculated our picks points using the after discount number as well.

AFL draft: How father/son and academy draft picks work, explaining the bidding system

Your guide to AFL draft academy, F/S bidding

www.foxsports.com.au

PICK — POINT VALUE — POINTS NEEDED TO MATCH WITH DISCOUNT
4 — 2034 — 1627

matching our picks
16 — 1067 — 854
21 — 878 — 681
34 — 542 — 345

 

[Saucery]

100% agree players slide.

I’ve said it, some of the media have said it (Matt Balmer, Pete Williams and Cal Twomey), and even David Noble has said it, this looks like a draft where teams will likely be drafting on a needs basis from pick 3.

100% perceived team needs have influenced my own uneducated rankings. So to have biases such as; a lack of a contested game, perceived flight risk, being short and slow (or not possessing elite speed).

There are some very talented kids in this draft who are very short, but are being spoken about as potential early second round or late first round picks. 170cm small forward Kysiah Pickett being the prime example.

A lot of the players who I have beyond 30 are very short, and more than a few of them are also not very fast. That’s two big knocks against in today’s AFL.


One observation from recent draft talk is that players who were earlier being spoken about as mid to late draft prospects are moving up boards based on either playing a position with few actual prospects, or it’s a valued position with shallow depth, and these players poses decent physiological and athletic traits.

Hawthorn seem to be absolute guns at picking up late draft gems, and we haven't done so bad ourselves recently.

Diamonds in the rough: Best value draft picks of the last decade

Proof you can find a superstar on Day Two: Best value draft picks of the past decade

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[briztoon]

Found it. I see the mistake I made earlier - looks like I calculated our picks points using the after discount number as well.

AFL draft: How father/son and academy draft picks work, explaining the bidding system

Your guide to AFL draft academy, F/S bidding

www.foxsports.com.au

PICK — POINT VALUE — POINTS NEEDED TO MATCH WITH DISCOUNT
4 — 2034 — 1627

matching our picks
16 — 1067 — 854
21 — 878 — 681
34 — 542 — 345

That still doesn’t explain how GWS end up with pick 22.

You’re not thinking of adding the residual points from pick 21 with pick 34 and moving back up the draft order are you? Because that’s not how it works.

 

[mpal6]

That still doesn’t explain how GWS end up with pick 22.

You’re not thinking of adding the residual points from pick 21 with pick 34 and moving back up the draft order are you? Because that’s not how it works.

yep that's what I did.. at 11pm last night anything goes to make my offer look better !

 

[briztoon]

If the bid comes at 4 for Green, GWS would be better off just matching with 6. Their other picks, 40,59 and 60 with a 20% first round discount don't quite match a bid at 19. So if they don't use 6 and the bid comes early and after their first pick, say in the top ten, they will go into serious deficit for next year. Can't see how it would be in their interests to not take Green at 6. If they want him then not taking him at 6, but taking him later will stuff up their draft picks in 2020.

Draft rules are that you have to match with your next available pick, so GWS would have to match with pick 6.

However GWS is trying to trade up to pick 4 to get ahead of the bid on Green, so the can draft a top rated kid, plus get Green. They are reportedly offering pick 6 this year and their 2020 first round pick on the table to help move up to pick 4.

GWS would definitely sacrifice next years first round pick to get Green and another highly rated kid in this years draft.

Consider GWS probably finish top 4 next year, meaning at best they have pick 16 (have to remember Gold Coast have a PP at pick 11 next year, so all teams who make the finals have their draft pick pushed back one position).

Plus there’s potentially 3 academy tied kids who get bid on before GWS’s pick next year, pushing it out further.

Even if they can’t trade up ahead of the bid, they can now live trade on draft night when a team bids on Green, and move back for multiple picks, giving them the chance to get Green and potentially a second round pick.

yep that's what I did.. at 11pm last night anything goes to make my offer look better !

lol

 

[jjami15]

Hawthorn seem to be absolute guns at picking up late draft gems, and we haven't done so bad ourselves recently.

Diamonds in the rough: Best value draft picks of the last decade

Proof you can find a superstar on Day Two: Best value draft picks of the past decade

www.foxsports.com.au

James Worpol grates me as he was one that I liked. Changed the way I view players a bit more instead of looking for what they couldn’t do but what they could do at the junior levels. Deven Robertson will be the one I reckon from this years draft where people will be surprised as to his future outcome.

 

[briztoon]

James Worpol grates me as he was one that I liked. Changed the way I view players a bit more instead of looking for what they couldn’t do but what they could do at the junior levels. Deven Robertson will be the one I reckon from this years draft where people will be surprised as to his future outcome.

lol I was writing the same thing. Worpel and Oscar Allen for me.

 

[Berrygood]

The disappearing Rowell/Rantall mystery, huh
It’s the Twilight Zone?

Fine cotton and bold personality

 

[briztoon]

Hawthorn seem to be absolute guns at picking up late draft gems, and we haven't done so bad ourselves recently.

Diamonds in the rough: Best value draft picks of the last decade

Proof you can find a superstar on Day Two: Best value draft picks of the past decade

www.foxsports.com.au

I don’t doubt there’ll be players picked later in this draft who have good careers.

I believe if you put Worpel in this draft, he’s at worst a mid 20’s pick.

There are quite a few midfielders with far less runs on the board than Worpel in this years draft being spoken about as potentially being drafted in the 20’s and 30’s.

I’ve mentioned it before, this years draft crop is very shallow on KPP’s, inside midfielders, and has a lot of shorter players by position.

But there’s a lot of third tall and general defenders, flankers and small forwards or undersized forward/mids.

 

[dizzysquizz]

I’m not sure Geelong would pick him at their first two picks. I believe their early picks will be used on the best KPP or midfield talent available at either pick.

As for Gold Coast, it will be interesting who they draft at 20 if there’s a choice between Will Day and Trent Bianco. Day’s cousin, Sam Day already plays for Gold Coast, and he’s a confessed GC fan.

I like Bianco. He’s a bit shorter than I would prefer. But he’s one of the best kicks in the draft, off either foot, and would be the perfect small defender to play on opposition small forwards.

But, depending who draft with our first, I would have Rantall as my preferred choice at our second pick.

hey man love all ya draft work, just curious who do you think we will take with our 1st pick and who Do you want to draft with our 1st...

I have posted on here several times I am a huge Day fan, BUT the closer it gets the more I think Day will be gone before our 1st. If we missed out on Day be interesting to see if we go with Rivers, as that rebounding defender.

 

[briztoon]

hey man love all ya draft work, just curious who do you think we will take with our 1st pick and who Do you want to draft with our 1st...

I have posted on here several times I am a huge Day fan, BUT the closer it gets the more I think Day will be gone before our 1st. If we missed out on Day be interesting to see if we go with Rivers, as that rebounding defender.

No idea who we’ll take.

Noble is still talking about midfielders and outside runners with speed. I want to be a little cautious taking Noble at his word because not many clubs want rival clubs to know who they’re looking at, at the draft.

Personally I’d love Brodie Kemp to slide due to his injury. And I’m a big Will Gould fan. And Trent Rivers ticks a lot of boxes for us.

Will Day would be a longer term selection. Might take two preseasons for him to develop a body ready for AFL, but he’s highly rated by some of the draft watchers, especially those who talk a lot to recruiters.

 

[irel]

Hawthorn seem to be absolute guns at picking up late draft gems, and we haven't done so bad ourselves recently.

Diamonds in the rough: Best value draft picks of the last decade

Proof you can find a superstar on Day Two: Best value draft picks of the past decade

www.foxsports.com.au

I don't believe Hawthorn is any better than the other clubs. Hawthorn's history of trading away their high draft picks leaves them with nothing but low selections. If you only have selections in the 40's 50's + then the law of averages means sometimes you hit pay dirt. Where Hawthorn have been excelling is in the development and cultural area. Compared to us, how many high end selections have we burnt on want aways and simply lack of proper development.

 

[Saucery]

I don't believe Hawthorn is any better than the other clubs. Hawthorn's history of trading away their high draft picks leaves them with nothing but low selections. If you only have selections in the 40's 50's + then the law of averages means sometimes you hit pay dirt. Where Hawthorn have been excelling is in the development and cultural area. Compared to us, how many high end selections have we burnt on want aways and simply lack of proper development.

Good point, I hadn't considered the circumstances.

 

[Fatcat08]

Hawthorn is a really interesting one. They built the core of their premiership side on high draft picks (including priority picks) and then were in a position to attract FA players when it was first introduced. They also coincided their rise with the erosion of teams ability to get high end talent when GWS and GC came in which diluted the ability of other teams to bridge the gap. Now they're trying to do the same still but without that core of really high end draft picks. So far it hasn't worked out for them in any real sense as they sit in that pergatory zone where they're not bad enough to get elite talent but not looking like challenging. Is going to be a really critical year for them this year and will be interesting to see if they can rise up further, or whether they just continue to be a mid pack team. Their staff and culture are good so they may be able to do it but its a tough ask.

 

[Dalions]

Cal Twomey on the Road to the Draft Podcast has just done a needs based Mock Draft And has us taking Jay Rantall at 16 and Kysiah Pickett at 21.

 

[Ironmonger]

Cal Twomey on the Road to the Draft Podcast has just done a needs based Mock Draft And has us taking Jay Rantall at 16 and Kysiah Pickett at 21.

Kysiah Pickett being the nephew of Byron.

The Picketts owe us. Byron arguably cost us premierships in both 1999 and 2004.

I'd love to have a little bit of that genetic line at the Lions.

 

[Dalions]

Kysiah Pickett being the nephew of Byron.

The Picketts owe us. Byron arguably cost us premierships in both 1999 and 2004.

I'd love to have a little bit of that genetic line at the Lions.

He looks like a pretty solid little bugger for only 171cm. And likes to throw himself around too.
Some of his highlights are a little Betts like.

 

[briztoon]

Cal Twomey on the Road to the Draft Podcast has just done a needs based Mock Draft And has us taking Jay Rantall at 16 and Kysiah Pickett at 21.

To be fair, it was shifter Sheehan who picked Rantall at 16 for us (and trotted out the line that we like picking Vic Country boys, especially those from GWV Rebel’s and Wornambool). And Cal commented, gees a bolter.

 

[jackess]

I wanna see Pickett and the Big O standing next to each other

 

[Dalions]

To be fair, it was shifter Sheehan who picked Rantall at 16 for us (and trotted out the line that we like picking Vic Country boys, especially those from GWV Rebel’s and Wornambool). And Cal commented, gees a bolter.

He would be a bolter at 16 but I could see us taking him at 21.
There has been talk of us being into him, which may have been his logic.

 

[Dalions]

I wanna see Pickett and the Big O standing next to each other

It would be like O’Mac standing next to me.
I had a photo with Tom Fullarton last year and, WOW I didn’t realise I was so small.
My mother also had a photo with Ben Keays and that was quite amusing as well

 

[briztoon]

He would be a bolter at 16 but I could see us taking him at 21.
There has been talk of us being into him, which may have been his logic.

I hope so. I haven’t seen anything linking us to Rantall, only me talking him up.

 

[Dalions]

I hope so. I haven’t seen anything linking us to Rantall, only me talking him up.

Cal Mentioned it, again today on the Draft desk video that we were into him.
But there has been other talk for a little while.

 

[countryVicLion]

Kysaiah Pickett our 2nd pick please let’s get this young man in our colours


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dalions]

Kysaiah Pickett our 2nd pick please let’s get this young man in our colours


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

There’s talk of Carlton taking him as early as 9.
Being of indigenous background, why is Pickett not linked to an Academy?