2019 Draft thread

[briztoon]

I'd be willing to trade 16 and 21 to move up to 12/13 if Serong was on the board. I really rate him and view him as a top 5 prospect personally. My favourite player of the draft.

Serong is one of those players I just haven’t been able to get on board with.

I’d be hoping that Brodie Kemp slides, and we could trade up for him.

Listening to the Draft Central podcast today, and they were discussing possible draft night trade scenarios, and they made a case for Melbourne trading their pick 8 for two picks in the teens. Geelong or Gold Coast.

Carlton splitting their pick 9, again Geelong.

GWS splitting pick 6 on the night if a bid comes in before pick 6, and they were unable to trade up to at least pick 4 beforehand. Again Geelong.

Fremantle splitting pick 10 if a bid comes in for Henry the pick before. Most likely to Gold Coast.

If a dream trifecta came in, we could end up with pick 10 from Fremantle, but I don’t see it happening.

 

[abcde12345]

Taheny has not played a forward/mid role as far as I’m aware. Had a great first three weeks to the season where he kicked 11 goals, then has been up and down.

There’s been some interesting discussions most of the second half of the season regarding his on field performances.

I believe we’ll have an interesting mix of players at our first two picks, some high risk high reward types, and some safe and consistent performers.

Yeah that's a fair point. If we don't think we could mould him into that sort of 50-50 player then I would agree that he wouldn't be worth taking - as we discussed earlier, due to the significant amount of talent we have and will have coming through our academy in a similar role. I wasn't aware of the disproportionately good start to the year relative to the rest of his season so that's definitely worth keeping in mind, although I'm also reading that he may have been having issues with a groin injury which may have been hampering his output.

Do you see Stephens sliding to our 2nd pick? If we could nab one of Rivers or Day with pick 1, and Stephens with Rantall as a backup at our 2nd pick, I reckon that would be a pretty successful draft period. Throw in Cumberland and Coleman, and I would be pretty happy with that.

Do we definitely have 4 senior slots going into the main draft? By my count we will have 37 senior players, 3 cat A rookies and 3 cat B rookies, accounting for Oscar and Hinge being upgraded and Skinner and Lyons being rookie listed. Definitely more than possible I missed something.

 

[briztoon]

Do we definitely have 4 senior slots going into the main draft? By my count we will have 37 senior players, 3 cat A rookies and 3 cat B rookies, accounting for Oscar and Hinge being upgraded and Skinner and Lyons being rookie listed. Definitely more than possible I missed something.

We have 4 spots in the National Draft, 3 Cat A rookie spots available, and apparently an extra Cat B a rookie spot for Matt Eagles.

Archie Smith was delisted, and it was mentioned he was exploring his options to sign elsewhere, otherwise we have committed to redrafting him in the rookie draft if he doesn’t find a home elsewhere.

We have to yet to redraft Lyons, Skinner and Eagles, so they’re all technically delisted free agents and can sign as a free agent, or drafted in the National Draft by an opposition team. But in all likelihood we redraft them in the rookie draft.

With the SSP now, I think we’ll see quite a few clubs keep one or two rookie spots available for after the drafts, and sign a few of the less sought after delisted free agents during preseason.

Otherwise I would have expected a delisted free agent like Nick Robertson to have already been picked up by a rival club.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah that's a fair point. If we don't think we could mould him into that sort of 50-50 player then I would agree that he wouldn't be worth taking - as we discussed earlier, due to the significant amount of talent we have and will have coming through our academy in a similar role. I wasn't aware of the disproportionately good start to the year relative to the rest of his season so that's definitely worth keeping in mind, although I'm also reading that he may have been having issues with a groin injury which may have been hampering his output.

Before SA began their U18 trial games the SA coach, on I’m sure it was Road to the Draft podcast, said he wanted to play Taheny up on a wing, as well as up forward during the Championships. But it didn’t eventuate.

There was talk that Taheny must be playing with an injury after the early part of the SANFL, because it was often mentioned that he was looking like he was disinterested when he wasn’t getting much of the ball.

I’m not sure if Taheny or his club or state would have played him if he was injured, because his perceived onfield lack of performance and perceived attitude really has seen him slide down draft boards.

But, I have no idea of the reality of the situation or how clubs view him.

 

[briztoon]

Do you see Stephens sliding to our 2nd pick? If we could nab one of Rivers or Day with pick 1, and Stephens with Rantall as a backup at our 2nd pick, I reckon that would be a pretty successful draft period. Throw in Cumberland and Coleman, and I would be pretty happy with that.

I’ve been listening to a few draft related podcasts, and have a few wider thoughts in regards to the draft and how it might impact the Lions.

Long rambling post coming up. Might split it up in to multiple posts.

First up, no idea if Cooper Stephens lasts to our second pick. A lot hinges on what pick trades occur on draft night, and which teams actually end up picking where.


If Noble and Stephen Conole are locked in to selecting Coleman and Cumberland, I believe that has to impact our drafting strategy for our first two picks.

Cumberland can play either flank position or wing, and he has a good contested side to his game, but he’s still raw.

Coleman can also play either forward or back on a flank, and we saw both Coleman and Cedric Cox playing as really good defensive forwards, hunting the opposition ball carries in the forward 50 during the NEAFL finals.

I’ve heard plenty of recruiters talk about watching the talent for future drafts, and how it might impact their drafting and trading strategy for the current draft.

So to, if you’re a team that has decent academy kids coming through in future drafts, you do have to take that in to account in your drafting strategy.

As I’ve said before, we also have Blake Coleman next year, and I’ve been reluctant to mention this, but I’ve heard him likened to Fremantle’s Liam Henry in terms of talent.

Add in Ah Chee, who has primarily played as a forward flanker in his career, and I’m not sure we really look at any forward flankers this draft.

 

[briztoon]

Twomey, Balmer and Pete Williams have all mentioned that the AFL ask clubs to delay trades to help create suspense and drama.

So there’s likely a few trades already agreed to in principle between clubs, that are being kept for draft night.

But there are going to have to be some trades beforehand, otherwise clubs like us, are going to be left with some later valuable picks as dead picks come draft night.

Unless the AFL allow teams to take “hidden picks” to the draft to trade on the night.

My feeling is, if we trade one or two of our 3rd round picks for a future 3rd round pick to a team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us do a draft night trade with that team that involves their own 3rd round pick coming back to us on draft night, so it’s an even two in two trade for both teams.


For example:

We trade picks 52 and 55 to the Bulldogs for their future 3rd round pick and their current 5th round pick 89. Pick 89 is basically a throw away pick for us, but it makes the trade look nice and even/kosher for the AFL.

This gives the Bulldogs four worthwhile picks to take to the draft. 13, 52, 53 and 55. While we have 16, 21, 34 and 48.

On draft night, we trade picks 16 and 34 to the Bulldogs for picks 13 and 53.

For us, it means we now have the two late picks for our academy kids, and we move 16 up to 13, where we can potentially get a slider out of the top 12/13 kids, and we get ahead of GC, because if there isn’t a slider that we like, we can at least draft Will Day if we rate him, because sure as anything, GC will target Day if they keep pick 15.

And we keep pick 21, which means hopefully at least one of Trent Rivers, Cooper Stephens or Jay Rantall is still on board.

For the Bulldogs, if they’re targeting a small forward, one of Cody Weightman or Kysiah Pickett is still on board. And the get to move 53 up to 34 where there might be a KPP or outside mid/wing for them pick up.


There’s a chance Geelong trades 14 and 17 to Melbourne for pick 8. There’s a bit of talk Melbourne is the team in to Kysiah Pickett, but pick 8 is to high for Pickett.

So Melbourne could take Pickett at 14, and use 17 on a KPP or outside mid. Not sure who Geelong take at 8. Anyone from Deven Robertson, Lachie Ash or Brodie Kemp.

 

[Sproj]

James Worpol grates me as he was one that I liked. Changed the way I view players a bit more instead of looking for what they couldn’t do but what they could do at the junior levels. Deven Robertson will be the one I reckon from this years draft where people will be surprised as to his future outcome.

Wasn’t Worpel pretty highly rated and then inexplicably just kept sliding and sliding?

 

[pulpdriver]

Wasn’t Worpel pretty highly rated and then inexplicably just kept sliding and sliding?

He'd been rated highly by a lot people after his junior year; even on this board alone. Apparently told interstate clubs "no", had shitty endurance and attitude issues. No idea what's true but whenever a gun slides there's generally some red flags.

 

[briztoon]

Wasn’t Worpel pretty highly rated and then inexplicably just kept sliding and sliding?

Not really. If you listened to Twomey, he wasn’t rated that high by recruiters. Twomey even got into a “discussion” on twitter with Worpel’s coach about not having Worpel in his Phantom Form Guide.

It was more on BF where Worpel was a favourite of some.

 

[briztoon]

He'd been rated highly by a lot people after his junior year; even on this board alone. Apparently told interstate clubs "no", had shitty endurance and attitude issues. No idea what's true but whenever a gun slides there's generally some red flags.

Was more his lack of agility and lack of a second position.

I don’t remember any attitude issues, and unconfirmed reports of his stay home preference only came to light after the draft.

 

[pulpdriver]

Was more his lack of agility and lack of a second position.

I don’t remember any attitude issues, and unconfirmed reports of his stay home preference only came to light after the draft.

Big slide for lack of a second position and agility. Just looked a gun footballer. I'm only going by rumours but tend to think there's some validity to the rumours when someone so good slides so late.

 

[briztoon]

Big slide for lack of a second position and agility. Just looked a gun footballer. I'm only going by rumours but tend to think there's some validity to the rumours when someone so good slides so late.

I know Twomey and Draft Central repeatedly mentioned he wasn’t rated as high as he was by amateur draft watchers.

I had a conversation with Matt Balmer (Draft Central and now at Fox Sports) before the season even began, and he said then Worpel wasn’t viewed as a first round prospect. He specifically mentioned Luke Davies-Uniack and Adam Cerra as possibly the two top inside mids. And this was before the TAC cup had started.

 

[pulpdriver]

I know Twomey and Draft Central repeatedly mentioned he wasn’t rated as high as he was by amateur draft watchers.

I had a conversation with Matt Balmer (Draft Central and now at Fox Sports) before the season even began, and he said then Worpel wasn’t viewed as a first round prospect. He specifically mentioned Luke Davies-Uniack and Adam Cerra as possibly the two top inside mids. And this was before the TAC cup had started.

So why did Worpel drop? It can't really be on performance. LDU definitely looked fantastic although sporadic, more than twice he'd single handedly brought his team back from the brink and in a final. Cerra looked good but had bundles of injury issues. Worpel had basically been a consistent and top performer for two years straight. Basically a surefire bet. How does someone like that drop so far? Granted teams get it wrong plenty but it's rare for guns to drop without some major red flags.

 

[briztoon]

So why did Worpel drop? It can't really be on performance. LDU definitely looked fantastic although sporadic, more than twice he'd single handedly brought his team back from the brink and in a final. Cerra looked good but had bundles of injury issues. Worpel had basically been a consistent and top performer for two years straight. Basically a surefire bet. How does someone like that drop so far? Granted teams get it wrong plenty but it's rare for guns to drop without some major red flags.

Low ceiling.

He didn’t drop as far as you’re making out. Brett Anderson rated him the highest out of the media draft commentators, and that was still in the mid 30’s. Charlie Constable was viewed as having a higher upside.

He was viewed as a man child. As a 17 year old in his underage year, he was bigger than most of the kids a year older.

Very one paced, and like I said poor agility. And was often criticised for just throwing the ball on the boot and hoofing it forwards. It was only late in the season that he made a real effort to look for targets with his kicks.

I’ll stick my hand up and say I rated him higher, and was vocal on here about it. So there may have been a perception that he was rated higher than what clubs thought.

Going back to that conversation I mentioned with Matt Balmer, I asked Balmer who he rated higher, Worpel or Mathieson. And he said Mathieson.

 

[briztoon]

Top 30 AFL young guns revealed — and there’s a shock at No. 2

Top 30 AFL young guns revealed — and there’s a shock at No. 2

www.foxsports.com.au

27. JAY RANTALL

Clubs: GWV Rebels/Vic Country

Position: Balanced Midfielder

Size: 185cm, 83kg

Plays like: Jy Simpkin

Champion Data says: Rantall was consistently able to hit the scoreboard from the midfield, rating elite for goals and score involvements. His tackle numbers exploded late in the year, laying 45 tackles from his final four matches. He also broke the 2km Time Trial Record at the 2019 Combine.

foxfooty.com.au says: The underage basketball gun has rapidly jumped up draft boards — potentially as early as the second round — following a year of growth across all levels. Rantall’s clearance work is outstanding and, like other basketball players, his work in traffic is very clean.

 

[jackess]

The Lions may also look to bring another Vic Country player to the club, with Stephens a potential selection at Pick 21.

They finished top of the ladder. But the Cats are set for an audacious draft play

They finished top of the ladder. But the Cats are set for an audacious draft play

www.foxsports.com.au

Matt Balmer article

 

[Section 5]

A article from Draft Central specifically on the Brisbane Lions for anyone interested.

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

They also have what they call "Power Rankings" you may want to have a look at if you go to the site.
So far only two sets of rankings - Nov 3 Rank 60-41 - Nov 11 rank 40-21.
Top 20 not released yet.
They rank Cumberland @ 47. No mention of Coleman unless he is in the top 20 ??.


#47 Noah Cumberland
Brisbane Lions Academy/Allies | Forward
15/03/2001 | 183cm | 79kg
A player we at Draft Central are a fan of, Cumberland has some seriously great athletic traits. In particular his break-neck speed coming off a flank or charging down the ground, recording a 2.931-second 20m sprint and 8.208-second agility test at the National Draft Combine. Tied to the Lions’ Academy, Cumberland could well be the first Lion bid on in the AFL Draft, and his versatility and high upside would be something attractive to the club and other clubs. He is a great pressure player as well, with his aggression at both the ball and opponent, and with ball-in-hand or without. He averaged almost five tackles a game at the championships, and while he will want to lift his accumulation and kicking consistency – he averaged just the 11 touches per game – he has some great traits from which a club can develop.

 

[briztoon]

A article from Draft Central specifically on the Brisbane Lions for anyone interested.

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

They also have what they call "Power Rankings" you may want to have a look at if you go to the site.
So far only two sets of rankings - Nov 3 Rank 60-41 - Nov 11 rank 40-21.
Top 20 not released yet.
They rank Cumberland @ 47. No mention of Coleman unless he is in the top 20 ??.


#47 Noah Cumberland
Brisbane Lions Academy/Allies | Forward
15/03/2001 | 183cm | 79kg
A player we at Draft Central are a fan of, Cumberland has some seriously great athletic traits. In particular his break-neck speed coming off a flank or charging down the ground, recording a 2.931-second 20m sprint and 8.208-second agility test at the National Draft Combine. Tied to the Lions’ Academy, Cumberland could well be the first Lion bid on in the AFL Draft, and his versatility and high upside would be something attractive to the club and other clubs. He is a great pressure player as well, with his aggression at both the ball and opponent, and with ball-in-hand or without. He averaged almost five tackles a game at the championships, and while he will want to lift his accumulation and kicking consistency – he averaged just the 11 touches per game – he has some great traits from which a club can develop.

Pie 4 Life here on BF is the editor and chief draft watcher on Draft Central. If you go to his draft thread here on BF, he has his full list from 1 to 60. Don’t need to wait until next week for his top 20.

He also has produced a 130+ page Draft Guide with player profiles. You can download it for free from the Draft Central website.

http://cdn.draftcentral.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AFL-Draft-Guide-2019-v2.pdf

 

[Section 5]

Pie 4 Life here on BF is the editor and chief draft watcher on Draft Central. If you go to his draft thread here on BF, he has his full list from 1 to 60. Don’t need to wait until next week for his top 20.

He also has produced a 130+ page Draft Guide with player profiles. You can download it for free from the Draft Central website.

http://cdn.draftcentral.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AFL-Draft-Guide-2019-v2.pdf

Thanks Briztoon that draft guide is great although finding a particular player could be a challenge in some cases.
Found Pie4Life he was under "Slice Of Pie"

 

[Mr Ripper]

That is one seriously well put together document. Still think draft obsession is utter wank, but kudos.

 

[Section 5]

With Briztoon suggestion to go to Draft Hub i noticed another draft watcher named eDPS who has a list 45 down to 1.
They have utilised and given credit to the 130 page Daft Guide by Slice Of Pie and integrated this into his selections.
For someone like me this is a much easier read for player placement in the draft especially for anything 25+.
A link below to eDPS starting at pick 45 (page 39 starts about a third way down page) for anyone interested.

Draft Watcher - eDPS Draft Watch 2019

Unfortunately he has an ACL and the chance of re injury is rather high. Secondly, do you think he gained enough possessions to be worthy of a top 5 selection? Is it though? Can't clubs rehab and strengthen it?

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Scubaveg]

That is one seriously well put together document. Still think draft obsession is utter wank, but kudos.

100%


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[briztoon]

With Briztoon suggestion to go to Draft Hub i noticed another draft watcher named eDPS who has a list 45 down to 1.
They have utilised and given credit to the 130 page Daft Guide by Slice Of Pie and integrated this into his selections.
For someone like me this is a much easier read for player placement in the draft especially for anything 25+.
A link below to eDPS starting at pick 45 (page 39 starts about a third way down page) for anyone interested.

Draft Watcher - eDPS Draft Watch 2019

Unfortunately he has an ACL and the chance of re injury is rather high. Secondly, do you think he gained enough possessions to be worthy of a top 5 selection? Is it though? Can't clubs rehab and strengthen it?

www.bigfooty.com

eDPS also works for Draft Central. And I think maybe PMBangers as well.

 

[PMBangers]

eDPS also works for Draft Central. And I think maybe PMBangers as well.

Unfortunately not, just your average Joe that watches U18s

 

[briztoon]

Unfortunately not, just your average Joe that watches U18s

Well that’s still like 3 steps (maybe more) up from me.