2019 Draft thread

[briztoon]

Yeah, I say we take 16 and 21 to the draft and try and offload 34 and 48 for a pick next year if possible.
Use the later picks for Academy.

We might need 48 to match a bid on Noah Cumberland. If we keep 52 and 55, we have to hope Coleman receives a late bid or no bid, as a bid for Cumberland could use up 52 and push 55 back in to the 60’s.

There’s been some talk from the editor of AFL draft central that Cumberland could receive a bid inside the top 40.

 

[Comeback Lions]

Yeah, I say we take 16 and 21 to the draft and try and offload 34 and 48 for a pick next year if possible.
Use the later picks for Academy.

We might need 48 to match a bid on Noah Cumberland. If we keep 52 and 55, we have to hope Coleman receives a late bid or no bid, as a bid for Cumberland could use up 52 and push 55 back in to the 60’s.

There’s been some talk from the editor of AFL draft central that Cumberland could receive a bid inside the top 40.

Not saying you don't know this, but caluclating the 197 pt discount for bids after the first round means:
48 will match a bid at 36 or later
52 will match a bid at 39 or later
55 will match a bid at 41 or later. (This is a rough estimate given picks can get pushed back by academy bidding.)
If we keep say 48 and 55 we should be right, if we're planning to draft both Cumberland and Coleman. That's means we would try to trade 34 and 52.
Not sure when bids will come, but 52 and 55 could easily do the job, meaning we can trade 34 and 48. At this stage trading the picks seems harder and it would be a pity to not get something next year for our excess 2 picks.

 

[chopperduck]

Reckon with how unknown the draft will be from about pick 5 to 20, any clubs looking to trade will do so on the night. We will have a player we want, and will hit up someone a few picks higher that if player x is available we are keen to trade. There will be a few deals done in principle before hand. If said player is taken, trade won't happen. I can see us doing this with out pick 16. Just depends if there are any takers.

 

[trikster]

I did this last season so thought I'd do it again. I've tried to calculate a "consensus" power ranking using the rankings of Cal Twomey, Knightmare, Pie 4 Life (Draft Central), eDPS and Paul Williams (Draft Central). Basically I take their top 20, give them points 20 to 1, then average it out.
In theory it removes (or at least minimises) the outliers where 1 person has a player 10+ spots above all the others (Hello Deven Robertson, 9th, 8th, 4th, 19th, didn't make top 20).

 

[eDPS]

I did this last season so thought I'd do it again. I've tried to calculate a "consensus" power ranking using the rankings of Cal Twomey, Knightmare, Pie 4 Life (Draft Central), eDPS and Paul Williams (Draft Central). Basically I take their top 20, give them points 20 to 1, then average it out.
In theory it removes (or at least minimises) the outliers where 1 person has a player 10+ spots above all the others (Hello Deven Robertson, 9th, 8th, 4th, 19th, didn't make top 20).

View attachment 773665

Robbing Peter to pay Paul

 

[trikster]

Robbing Peter to pay Paul

I don't pay him so all good

 

[eDPS]

I don't pay him so all good

Pete will be happy to see he has been included twice haha

 

[bungalow_bill]

Reckon with how unknown the draft will be from about pick 5 to 20, any clubs looking to trade will do so on the night. We will have a player we want, and will hit up someone a few picks higher that if player x is available we are keen to trade. There will be a few deals done in principle before hand. If said player is taken, trade won't happen. I can see us doing this with out pick 16. Just depends if there are any takers.

A team may want to trade their 2020 first rounder for 16

 

[trikster]

Pete will be happy to see he has been included twice haha

? Paul was Bishop? Or have I got him and Balmer mixed up?

 

[eDPS]

? Paul was Bishop? Or have I got him and Balmer mixed up?

Matt Balmer is bishop and is with fox sports

Pete Williams is pie4life and is with Draft Central

Matt left Draft Central the start of last year

 

[trikster]

Matt Balmer is bishop and is with fox sports
Pete Williams is pie4life and is with Draft Central
Matt left Draft Central the start of last year

Ok, that was a typo and now I get your original comment

In my own defence though, both the P4L thread and draft central page looked like October power rankings but weren't exactly the same .... so it's all his fault

I'd update it but there would be minimal change

 

[eDPS]

Ok, that was a typo and now I get your original comment

In my own defence though, both the P4L thread and draft central page looked like October power rankings but weren't exactly the same .... so it's all his fault

I'd update it but there would be minimal change

Pete has been a bit slack with updating his rankings on here but he is really
busy with ADC so it’s understandable.

 

[briztoon]

Not saying you don't know this, but caluclating the 197 pt discount for bids after the first round means:
48 will match a bid at 36 or later
52 will match a bid at 39 or later
55 will match a bid at 41 or later. (This is a rough estimate given picks can get pushed back by academy bidding.)
If we keep say 48 and 55 we should be right, if we're planning to draft both Cumberland and Coleman. That's means we would try to trade 34 and 52.
Not sure when bids will come, but 52 and 55 could easily do the job, meaning we can trade 34 and 48. At this stage trading the picks seems harder and it would be a pity to not get something next year for our excess 2 picks.

I don’t believe there’ll be much or any movement with our 50’s picks. They might get pushed out one spot.

It’s more if Cumberland gets bid on around 30’ish.

Gold Coast being able to prelist Rosas, has removed one of the other main small forwards from the draft, and some clubs might rate Cumberland higher than the 170cm Pickett, or the slower Mahony.

 

[Comeback Lions]

If Cumberland at 30 is likely then we might trade back 34 to 37 with Adelaide or 40 with GWS. Can’t help thinking that we have too many picks and would need to try to package up 2 of 48, 52 and 55 for a third or more likely 4th round future pick in 2020. Hard to see who might do that. Maybe West Coast might be interested in moving forward in this draft. North or Adelaide are the two clubs who currently have excess 2020 picks.

The no of picks equalling list places has changed the value of excess picks. Feels a little bit like we haven’t adjusted to the new system. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[M Malice]

IMO there will be very little pick trading going on in the lead up to the draft but there will be lots of offers made on the night. I would expect us to attempt to trade our 16 & 21 on the night if there is a player we have a high opinion of still on the board in the 7-12 range. Maybe someone like Will Gould, Brodie Kemp, Lachie Ash, Dylan Stephens slips on the night. Selections before us-

7- Dockers.
8- Demons.
9- Blues.
10- Dockers.
11- Hawks.
12- Power.

We could offer 16 & a later selection for one of the following as well-

13- Dockers.
14- Cats.
15 Suns.

 

[briztoon]

If Cumberland at 30 is likely then we might trade back 34 to 37 with Adelaide or 40 with GWS. Can’t help thinking that we have too many picks and would need to try to package up 2 of 48, 52 and 55 for a third or more likely 4th round future pick in 2020. Hard to see who might do that. Maybe West Coast might be interested in moving forward in this draft. North or Adelaide are the two clubs who currently have excess 2020 picks.

The no of picks equalling list places has changed the value of excess picks. Feels a little bit like we haven’t adjusted to the new system. Hope I’m wrong.

Pretty sure one of the rules regarding future pick trading, is if you have traded out your future first, you’re not allowed to trade out any more future picks in a seperate transaction.

Unless you trade back in a future first.

So right now West Coast and Melbourne are prohibited from trading any more future picks.

 

[briztoon]

IMO there will be very little pick trading going on in the lead up to the draft but there will be lots of offers made on the night. I would expect us to attempt to trade our 16 & 21 on the night if there is a player we have a high opinion of still on the board in the 7-12 range. Maybe someone like Will Gould, Brodie Kemp, Lachie Ash, Dylan Stephens slips on the night. Selections before us-

7- Dockers.
8- Demons.
9- Blues.
10- Dockers.
11- Hawks.
12- Power.

We could offer 16 & a later selection for one of the following as well-

13- Dockers.
14- Cats.
15 Suns.

Isn’t 13 the Bulldogs?

I’d trade 16 and 34 for their 13 and 54 on the night if Will Gould is still there. And especially if Cody Weightman was still on board for the Bulldogs.

No way Gold Coast draft a small forward when they have Ainsworth, Rankine, and have just prelisted Buderick and Rosas. And still have Gore and Oea as possible academy selections in the rookie draft. Gold Coast might have the scariest small forward line up in the league in 2 or 3 years time.

Would Geelong draft a small forward at their first pick?

 

[Comeback Lions]

IMO there will be very little pick trading going on in the lead up to the draft but there will be lots of offers made on the night. I would expect us to attempt to trade our 16 & 21 on the night if there is a player we have a high opinion of still on the board in the 7-12 range. Maybe someone like Will Gould, Brodie Kemp, Lachie Ash, Dylan Stephens slips on the night. Selections before us-

7- Dockers.
8- Demons.
9- Blues.
10- Dockers.
11- Hawks.
12- Power.

We could offer 16 & a later selection for one of the following as well-

13- Dockers.
14- Cats.
15 Suns.

If we don’t trade any picks before the draft then we will forfeit 52, 55 and 72 as we can only take in 4 picks for 4 list spaces. That’s the equivalent of having pick 38 in points and not using it. 72 probably doesn’t matter, but I imagine we’d be trying to hard to trade 2 of 34, 48, 52 and 55 for at least 1 future pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Isn’t 13 the Bulldogs?

I’d trade 16 and 34 for their 13 and 54 on the night if Will Gould is still there. And especially if Cody Weightman was still on board for the Bulldogs.

No way Gold Coast draft a small forward when they have Ainsworth, Rankine, and have just prelisted Buderick and Rosas. And still have Gore and Oea as possible academy selections in the rookie draft. Gold Coast might have the scariest small forward line up in the league in 2 or 3 years time.

Would Geelong draft a small forward at their first pick?

With (excluding Ablett on age) Miers Dahlhaus Fogarty Atkins Simpson and Tarca on the books i doubt it. I expect we want Jackson and/or mids with speed at our picks. We also have a list spot problem like you so trading one pick for 2 lower ones is harder for us, unless it was one lower pick plus a future pick i doubt we'd do it. You should try the bulldogs for a deal like that though imo.

 

[briztoon]

With (excluding Ablett on age) Miers Dahlhaus Fogarty Atkins Simpson and Tarca on the books i doubt it. I expect we want Jackson and/or mids with speed at our picks. We also have a list spot problem like you so trading one pick for 2 lower ones is harder for us, unless it was one lower pick plus a future pick i doubt we'd do it. You should try the bulldogs for a deal like that though imo.

So Bid on Finn Maginness to start with. Then Cooper Stephens or Miles Bergman after the Hawks match?

 

[dizzysquizz]

I was thinking/hoping to pick Rantall at 34, BUT that is looking highly unlikely now.
I would have no problem with us picking him with pick 21(currently), good size, plenty of upside, good contested side to his game which Fages Loves.
Noble has continually said the Club wants some run and carry off hb, and in the draft with our current picks Will Day fits that bill to a tee, I would love him with pick 16, BUT have a strong feeling, no info or anything that the Suns will NAB him with pick 15.

 

[dizzysquizz]

IN saying all that I am still hopefull ,not sure how exactly we trade up to a pick in 7-12 range and take L ash.

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

With McInerney and Hinge not yet officially on the senior list, doesn't that mean we do take pick 52 and pick 55 to the draft?

And if it doesn't what does that mean? The picks are "locked" from trading or being used for points, until we get to the time where we upgrade rookies?

 

[Comeback Lions]

With McInerney and Hinge not yet officially on the senior list, doesn't that mean we do take pick 52 and pick 55 to the draft?

And if it doesn't what does that mean? The picks are "locked" from trading or being used for points, until we get to the time where we upgrade rookies?

I think we will list/ upgrade Big O, Hinge before the draft, otherwise other clubs could take them. But we can trade picks right up to the draft. Only have to take 2 picks and one rookie up grade to draft, so in theory we could trade up to 5 picks before the draft. Be good to shift 2 of them into 2020. Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.

 

[briztoon]

I think we will list/ upgrade Big O, Hinge before the draft, otherwise other clubs could take them. But we can trade picks right up to the draft. Only have to take 2 picks and one rookie up grade to draft, so in theory we could trade up to 5 picks before the draft. Be good to shift 2 of them into 2020. Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.

I’m pretty sure rookie upgrades are lodged with the AFL before the draft, and the picks required are assigned to them before the draft.

So teams can’t take those picks to the draft, nor can opposition teams poach rookies who are to be upgraded.

I’m also sure picks can be traded up until 1 week before the draft. Found confirmation, picks can be traded until 2pm on the 22nd of November. The draft is on the 27th and 28th November.

And then traded live during the draft.