2019 Draft thread

[briztoon]

The problem with the logic that there’s only 30 good players in the draft is that it assumes everyone has the same top 30. We might have 30 kids that we rate but the chances are remote that it is the same 30 as other clubs have their eye on. It could well be that at our pick 34, there are a good half dozen kids that we like to pick from. And with live trading, we get to make that assessment on the night and respond accordingly.

Aggregating opinions and using them to reach conclusions of fact isn’t exactly the most reliable intelligence. Best to keep an open mind, particularly when we’re talking about matters of significant subjectivity.

Not sure if this post is directed specifically at me, but seeing as I’ve been saying the talent only runs about 30 deep, and I really dislike where our pick 34 sits in recent discussions, I’ll reply.

You can go back through this thread where I’ve repeatedly said, I’m an amateur watching the people who watch the kids, and to take anything I say with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Most recently I said it to @jasonpm in the last fortnight.

I try not to present anything as fact, just my opinion.

If you want to discuss my comment about the depth of talent, I’m more than happy to go through the players generally listed in the top 35.

There aren’t many Lions fans who talk a lot of draft here. Who post articles from the media and genuine draft watchers, and discuss the articles.

Feel free to discuss or question my/our comments about players, our views on depth or strength of the draft, etc.

But without our input from the beginning of the season, there’d be **** all information here, and **** all chat.

And when this time of the year rolls around, you’d have to be going off and reading all the articles for yourselves, or visiting another teams discussion thread.

 

[POBT]

Not sure if this post is directed specifically at me, but seeing as I’ve been saying the talent only runs about 30 deep, and I really dislike where our pick 34 sits in recent discussions, I’ll reply.

You can go back through this thread where I’ve repeatedly said, I’m an amateur watching the people who watch the kids, and to take anything I say with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Most recently I said it to @jasonpm in the last fortnight.

I try not to present anything as fact, just my opinion.

If you want to discuss my comment about the depth of talent, I’m more than happy to go through the players generally listed in the top 35.

There aren’t many Lions fans who talk a lot of draft here. Who post articles from the media and genuine draft watchers, and discuss the articles.

Feel free to discuss or question my/our comments about players, our views on depth or strength of the draft, etc.

But without our input from the beginning of the season, there’d be **** all information here, and **** all chat.

And when this time of the year rolls around, you’d have to be going off and reading all the articles for yourselves, or visiting another teams discussion thread.

Hang on, I didn’t make any other comment other than I believe the method of analysis that you (and others) have adopted is flawed and explained why. I could have quoted you but that would have indicated that I was replying to your opinion alone, or that I was attacking you directly.

If you want a comment about the interest levels or otherwise in a draft thread, over many years, the board has never had an issue discussing the draft both in terms of quality and quantity. I highly doubt that would change now. Perhaps there’s just less need for others to post when you’re so active? I know I now only use this thread to find basic draft info but have pretty much stopped posting as it seems like every discussion point has been raised. Even if I find something I’d like to reply to, it generally has already been dealt with. It is a bit of a shame really but I can hardly complain if someone is more interested in a topic than I am and so posts a whole lot more, even if it means I’m not really part of the conversation. So I move from being active to passive. No big deal.

But I go back to the point that I started with which is I don’t agree with your analysis. Even if you had your own top 30, there will obviously be a margin of error compared to the club’s list and that of other clubs. Pick 34 is only just outside your own range. If you’d said “I’m worried about pick 45 because I (or the experts) only rate 30 players”, then it would make more sense. But the simple divergence of opinion makes pick 34 very much in play.

I’m sorry you found my post offensive. If it means anything, I mustn’t find your posting too objectionable because I haven’t blocked you. I just think there’s a flaw in that particular opinion and, for what it’s worth, I think it’s caused by a blurring of fact and opinion, even though I am aware that you don’t pretend to possess particular expertise.

 

[briztoon]

Hang on, I didn’t make any other comment other than I believe the method of analysis that you (and others) have adopted is flawed and explained why. I could have quoted you but that would have indicated that I was replying to your opinion alone, or that I was attacking you directly.

If you want a comment about the interest levels or otherwise in a draft thread, over many years, the board has never had an issue discussing the draft both in terms of quality and quantity. I highly doubt that would change now. Perhaps there’s just less need for others to post when you’re so active? I know I now only use this thread to find basic draft info but have pretty much stopped posting as it seems like every discussion point has been raised. Even if I find something I’d like to reply to, it generally has already been dealt with. It is a bit of a shame really but I can hardly complain if someone is more interested in a topic than I am and so posts a whole lot more, even if it means I’m not really part of the conversation. So I move from being active to passive. No big deal.

But I go back to the point that I started with which is I don’t agree with your analysis. Even if you had your own top 30, there will obviously be a margin of error compared to the club’s list and that of other clubs. Pick 34 is only just outside your own range. If you’d said “I’m worried about pick 45 because I (or the experts) only rate 30 players”, then it would make more sense. But the simple divergence of opinion makes pick 34 very much in play.

I’m sorry you found my post offensive. If it means anything, I mustn’t find your posting too objectionable because I haven’t blocked you. I just think there’s a flaw in that particular opinion and, for what it’s worth, I think it’s caused by a blurring of fact and opinion, even though I am aware that you don’t pretend to possess particular expertise.

Hey POBT I’ll hopefully be able to give a more in-depth reply later tonight, but just want to make one comment.

I don’t aggregate others opinions to come to my own opinion/s. Nor do I present my opinions as fact. It’s never my intention if it comes across as that.

I do read as much as I can, to help inform my opinion/s. I also watch as much as I can, which admittedly is not much.

But that’s not the same as aggregating opinions, otherwise that how all of us form all our opinions.

It’s not the first time that someone has said that about myself and my draft opinions on here. I just haven’t addressed it before.

 

[countryVicLion]

Around our picks


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mpal6]

Around our picks


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we want him, we may need to get him at 16.
I get the feeling he won't get past Geelong at 17 or Gold coast at 20.

 

[briztoon]

If we want him, we may need to get him at 16.
I get the feeling he won't get past Geelong at 17 or Gold coast at 20.

I’m not sure Geelong would pick him at their first two picks. I believe their early picks will be used on the best KPP or midfield talent available at either pick.

As for Gold Coast, it will be interesting who they draft at 20 if there’s a choice between Will Day and Trent Bianco. Day’s cousin, Sam Day already plays for Gold Coast, and he’s a confessed GC fan.

I like Bianco. He’s a bit shorter than I would prefer. But he’s one of the best kicks in the draft, off either foot, and would be the perfect small defender to play on opposition small forwards.

But, depending who draft with our first, I would have Rantall as my preferred choice at our second pick.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Seems like there will be a few excellent prospects at our first pick. Pies must be kicking themselves for giving up two 1st rounders

 

[mpal6]

I’m not sure Geelong would pick him at their first two picks. I believe their early picks will be used on the best KPP or midfield talent available at either pick.

As for Gold Coast, it will be interesting who they draft at 20 if there’s a choice between Will Day and Trent Bianco. Day’s cousin, Sam Day already plays for Gold Coast, and he’s a confessed GC fan.

I like Bianco. He’s a bit shorter than I would prefer. But he’s one of the best kicks in the draft, off either foot, and would be the perfect small defender to play on opposition small forwards.

But, depending who draft with our first, I would have Rowell as my preferred choice at our second pick.

I'm guessing you meant Rantall at our second.

 

[Dalions]

I’m not sure Geelong would pick him at their first two picks. I believe their early picks will be used on the best KPP or midfield talent available at either pick.

As for Gold Coast, it will be interesting who they draft at 20 if there’s a choice between Will Day and Trent Bianco. Day’s cousin, Sam Day already plays for Gold Coast, and he’s a confessed GC fan.

I like Bianco. He’s a bit shorter than I would prefer. But he’s one of the best kicks in the draft, off either foot, and would be the perfect small defender to play on opposition small forwards.

But, depending who draft with our first, I would have Rowell as my preferred choice at our second pick.

If we could get Rowell at our second pick, we should all start to ’Praise The Lord’.

 

[Comeback Lions]

Best option of trading picks might be to the Pies who have 2 2020 second rounders. 34 + 55 for Collingwood's 2020 2nd rounder (which might be lower than the one they have tied to St Kilda and hence more likely to be traded.) Logic we give up a second rounder and surplus pick for a 2nd rounder next year. On points we give up 542 + 207= 749 pts equivalent to pick 25 (756pts).

Moves Collingwood forward in this draft from 35, 62, 74 to 34, 35, 55 which might be attractive to them. Gives us a replacement 2020 2nd rounder for the one we traded to Gold Coast.
Leaves us with 16, 21, 48 and 52 to take to this years draft, which works especially if we have academy players Cumberland and Coleman in the mix for our last 2 picks. Also means we can death ride the Collywobbles in 2020.

 

[Comeback Lions]

If we could get Rowell at our second pick, we should all start to ’Praise The Lord’.

Rantall? The mind does funny things. Odds of the no 1 favourite sliding to 21 must be more than a million to one. But sure if it does happen, I'm happy to convert to any or all religions.

 

[Dylan12]

Hey POBT I’ll hopefully be able to give a more in-depth reply later tonight, but just want to make one comment.

I don’t aggregate others opinions to come to my own opinion/s. Nor do I present my opinions as fact. It’s never my intention if it comes across as that.

I do read as much as I can, to help inform my opinion/s. I also watch as much as I can, which admittedly is not much.

But that’s not the same as aggregating opinions, otherwise that how all of us form all our opinions.

It’s not the first time that someone has said that about myself and my draft opinions on here. I just haven’t addressed it before.

You don't need to justify yourself briztoon, I enjoy your analysis given I don't read any other draft board and without people like you discussing draftees, I'd have even less of a clue who are our potential targets, which admittedly is getting less and less each year.

 

[briztoon]

I'm guessing you meant Rantall at our second.

Yeeees.

 

[Sproj]

I wonder if the Lions will go a little left field with someone coming from the clouds, ala Smith last year for their first pick. If so, who is likely?

 

[Saucery]

...
I don’t value pick 34 highly at all. It’s at a really bad spot in the draft. It’s outside the top 30 where most draft watchers say the decent talent runs out.

And you’re probably drafting a kid that’s no better than kids who will get drafted 10 or 20 picks later.

34 best value is to a team that needs points, and unfortunately this is a draft lacking in academy and father son kids.

However GWS probably can get better deals. 10 and 22 off Fremantle or 14 and 17 off Geelong.

If a bid came from Adelaide at pick 4.

The Fremantle trade would give them a residual pick 31, right where they could get a slider from the top 30. Fremantle probably asks for pick 40 in return as well.

The Geelong trade would give them a residual pick at 34, pushing our 34 back to 35. And Geelong isn’t asking for a later or future pick back.

Players slide and it depends on who is being targeted by the club. Look at Noah Answerth last year, pick 55 and played 19 games.

 

[briztoon]

I wonder if the Lions will go a little left field with someone coming from the clouds, ala Smith last year for their first pick. If so, who is likely?

Rantall is my “Smith” for this year. I rate (opinion here) Rantall higher than most media draft watchers.

Hard to see the left field options. Going a KPP or a half forward flanker would be a left field option. Or selecting a player who is vertically challenged, or lacks any semblance of a contested side.

Players slide and it depends on who is being targeted by the club. Look at Noah Answerth last year, pick 55 and played 19 games.

100% agree players slide.

I’ve said it, some of the media have said it (Matt Balmer, Pete Williams and Cal Twomey), and even David Noble has said it, this looks like a draft where teams will likely be drafting on a needs basis from pick 3.

100% perceived team needs have influenced my own uneducated rankings. So to have biases such as; a lack of a contested game, perceived flight risk, being short and slow (or not possessing elite speed).

There are some very talented kids in this draft who are very short, but are being spoken about as potential early second round or late first round picks. 170cm small forward Kysiah Pickett being the prime example.

A lot of the players who I have beyond 30 are very short, and more than a few of them are also not very fast. That’s two big knocks against in today’s AFL.


One observation from recent draft talk is that players who were earlier being spoken about as mid to late draft prospects are moving up boards based on either playing a position with few actual prospects, or it’s a valued position with shallow depth, and these players poses decent physiological and athletic traits.

 

[Dalions]

Rantall? The mind does funny things. Odds of the no 1 favourite sliding to 21 must be more than a million to one. But sure if it does happen, I'm happy to convert to any or all religions.

The disappearing Rowell/Rantall mystery, huh
It’s the Twilight Zone?

 

[mpal6]

That’s a lot to give up to get one pick in a draft where everyone says there’s only two top tier kids, Rowell and Anderson.

If Brodie Kemp hadn’t done his ACL possibly. But by the same token, Kemp probably would have been drafted at 3, or no later than Sydney at 5.

Think I’d rather keep 16 and 21. Unless GWS throw in a future 2nd round pick.

I don’t value pick 34 highly at all. It’s at a really bad spot in the draft. It’s outside the top 30 where most draft watchers say the decent talent runs out.

And you’re probably drafting a kid that’s no better than kids who will get drafted 10 or 20 picks later.

34 best value is to a team that needs points, and unfortunately this is a draft lacking in academy and father son kids.

However GWS probably can get better deals. 10 and 22 off Fremantle or 14 and 17 off Geelong.

If a bid came from Adelaide at pick 4.

The Fremantle trade would give them a residual pick 31, right where they could get a slider from the top 30. Fremantle probably asks for pick 40 in return as well.

The Geelong trade would give them a residual pick at 34, pushing our 34 back to 35. And Geelong isn’t asking for a later or future pick back.

While I agree with how much we are giving up for that one pick, I wonder if our list is at a stage where adding top-end talent is more important to push that first 22 even further than more players who have something to work with and develop.

16+21+34 for 6 equates to us trading away a second rounder (26) for free. If players available in that 30-40 bracket isn't that high on radar, may be its worth throwing this lot at pick 6. Us trading so much might even help outbid Fremantle and Geelong. With discount, GWS lands back at pick 22 for this draft if they take our three picks which is attractive than 31 from Fremantle trade or 34 from Geelong. We could get a late pick or future third back for our academy if needed.

Again it's just this draft, player depth and us potentially taking Cumberland+Coleman and possibly the minimum draft intake of 4 is making me think along these lines.

 

[briztoon]

While I agree with how much we are giving up for that one pick, I wonder if our list is at a stage where adding top-end talent is more important to push that first 22 even further than more players who have something to work with and develop.

16+21+34 for 6 equates to us trading away a second rounder (26) for free. If players available in that 30-40 bracket isn't that high on radar, may be its worth throwing this lot at pick 6. Us trading so much might even help outbid Fremantle and Geelong. With discount, GWS lands back at pick 22 for this draft if they take our three picks which is attractive than 31 from Fremantle trade or 34 from Geelong. We could get a late pick or future third back for our academy if needed.

Again it's just this draft, player depth and us potentially taking Cumberland+Coleman and possibly the minimum draft intake of 4 is making me think along these lines.

If Kemp hadn’t ruptured his ACL I’d genuinely consider it. Otherwise I just don’t believe there’s another kid in the top 6 who’s worth giving up 16 and 21 for, let alone adding 34.

And how does GWS land back at pick 22 from this trade?

I have the bid coming it at pick 4 from Adelaide, which requires all of pick 16, and half of pick 21, which generates a residual pick at pick 41.

So GWS get Green, picks 34 and 41 from the trade, plus they keep their own pick 40.

 

[mpal6]

If Kemp hadn’t ruptured his ACL I’d genuinely consider it. Otherwise I just don’t believe there’s another kid in the top 6 who’s worth giving up 16 and 21 for, let alone adding 34.

And how does GWS land back at pick 22 from this trade?

I have the bid coming it at pick 4 from Adelaide, which requires all of pick 16, and half of pick 21, which generates a residual pick at pick 41.

So GWS get Green, picks 34 and 41 from the trade, plus they keep their own pick 40.

Will check and update, I was looking at a website with a table showing points per pick and with discount. Could have got it wrong easily as it was my first attempt.

 

[Wrenny]

Hey guys,
Half way through our Richmond Bigfooty draft and I have picked the following for you guys:
16: Will Gould
23: Trent Bianco (Bid on Jackson Mead first)
34: Cameron Taheny (Dow, O'Neill & Pickett also considered)
How many live picks do you guys have and I'm hoping no one picks your academy players so you have access to them in the rookie draft. If so any other types of players you'd like?

 

[briztoon]

Hey guys,
Half way through our Richmond Bigfooty draft and I have picked the following for you guys:
16: Will Gould
23: Trent Bianco (Bid on Jackson Mead first)
34: Cameron Taheny (Dow, O'Neill & Pickett also considered)
How many live picks do you guys have and I'm hoping no one picks your academy players so you have access to them in the rookie draft. If so any other types of players you'd like?

What pick did Jay Rantall go?

4 picks btw.

 

[Wrenny]

What pick did Jay Rantall go?

4 picks btw.

At #30 to the Crows. I would have snapped him up if available of course.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Rantall? The mind does funny things. Odds of the no 1 favourite sliding to 21 must be more than a million to one. But sure if it does happen, I'm happy to convert to any or all religions.

Potential for a ring-in. Fine Cotton style.

 

[Comeback Lions]

I have the bid coming it at pick 4 from Adelaide, which requires all of pick 16, and half of pick 21, which generates a residual pick at pick 41.
So GWS get Green, picks 34 and 41 from the trade, plus they keep their own pick 40.

If the bid comes at 4 for Green, GWS would be better off just matching with 6. Their other picks, 40,59 and 60 with a 20% first round discount don't quite match a bid at 19. So if they don't use 6 and the bid comes early and after their first pick, say in the top ten, they will go into serious deficit for next year. Can't see how it would be in their interests to not take Green at 6. If they want him then not taking him at 6, but taking him later will stuff up their draft picks in 2020.