2019 Draft thread

[BuntonRules]

The other side of our deal with port

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/11...-lions-hailed-a-smart-move-by-player-manager/

 

[briztoon]

The other side of our deal with port

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/11...-lions-hailed-a-smart-move-by-player-manager/

Yeah, that’s been a pretty common comment all year.

Put it this way, last year was viewed as a very strong draft, with an elite top ~10 picks and a strong first round out to about ~20 picks. And good depth out in the later rounds.

And there were still 3 or 4 underage kids who made the AA team last year.

This year a far weaker top end, 2 or 3 kids depending on who you talk to, and the first round talent runs out around picks 12 to 14 depending on who you talk to.

And there were no underagers who made the AA team.

The one caveat is that next years top KPF was injured early this season and would almost certainly have made the AA team had he played. Also a couple of other top prospects were also injured.

Still, at this stage the top 10 to 12 picks next year should be on par with this years top 10 to 12 pick.

At this stage the top 12 looks like predominantly mids with 2 KPF’s, a KPD and a forward flanker, with 3 of them tied to clubs as nga’s or Sydney.

 

[Ironmonger]

The other side of our deal with port

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/11...-lions-hailed-a-smart-move-by-player-manager/

I can only assume Pickering hasn't looked at the deal very closely.

Pickering is talking as though this deal gets Jackson Mead for Port. But Port would have got Jackson Mead for pick 29, maybe for less.

So they've traded pick 16 in this year's draft for a pick most likely somewhere between 6 and 16 in next year's draft.

And they've helped us turn our useless picks into a useful pick along the way.

 

[briztoon]

Is there a club next year with multiple F/S and NGA kids they need picks for? Could that Port pick be trade bait to trade higher into the first round this year if one of the club's need more first round picks next year?

Not that we could trade up to. Unless The Bulldogs finish between 12th and 14th.

Bulldogs have a potentially top 5 kid.
Collingwood potentially have a top 10 kid.


Sydney might have two kids in the 10 to 18 range, but their first pick should be before a bid comes in, and they have enough later points. And seeing as Sydney run with a 38 player senior list, can carry two extra picks in the draft just for points.

 

[jackess]

GWS has picks 4, 40, 59 and 60. If Green is bid on with pick 5 and they match; what is the consequences? Remembering they don’t have a first next year.

 

[briztoon]

GWS has picks 4, 40, 59 and 60. If Green is bid on with pick 5 and they match; what is the consequences? Remembering they don’t have a first next year.

By my quick calculations GWS have enough points (1643) this year and next year to match a bid on Green from pick 4 onwards. And seeing as they have pick 4, only have to worry about Sydney at pick 5.


Unless Melbourne really want Green, they’re not bidding. I’m sure GWS will put it out there, that they won’t match a bid at 3.


So that leaves Sydney at pick 5 to bid on Green. GWS will match and have enough residual points, 141 in next years draft, to match a bid at pick 46 this year on Liam Delahunty (their other academy kid this year).

So again, if a team really wants Delahunty, they need to bid on him before pick 46.

So I expect GWS walk away with two top 5 picks this year, plus Delahunty.

And with their 4th pick at the very end of the draft now, they can draft a delisted free agent such as Nick Robertson. Or move the pick to the rookie draft and draft a delisted free agent there.


Next year they possibly trade out one or two kids. My early guess is Jackson Hately to Adelaide for a future first round pick. But through trading they’ll get a couple of mid draft picks after paying off their 2019 deficit.

 

[jackess]

By my quick calculations GWS have enough points (1643) this year and next year to match a bid on Green from pick 4 onwards. And seeing as they have pick 4, only have to worry about Sydney at pick 5.


Unless Melbourne really want Green, they’re not bidding. I’m sure GWS will put it out there, that they won’t match a bid at 3.


So that leaves Sydney at pick 5 to bid on Green. GWS will match and have enough residual points, 141 in next years draft, to match a bid at pick 46 this year on Liam Delahunty (their other academy kid this year).

So again, if a team really wants Delahunty, they need to bid on him before pick 46.

So I expect GWS walk away with two top 5 picks this year, plus Delahunty.

And with their 4th pick at the very end of the draft now, they can draft a delisted free agent such as Nick Robertson. Or move the pick to the rookie draft and draft a delisted free agent there.


Next year they possibly trade out one or two kids. My early guess is Jackson Hately to Adelaide for a future first round pick. But through trading they’ll get a couple of mid draft picks after paying off their 2019 deficit.

So 40, 59 and 60 is worth 733. They need about 1,503 to match bid 5. So pre trade period next year they’ll lose picks worth 770 points?

 

[Sunstar]

Im not sure what it is But Will Day to me seems like a real Conole type pick. He is cousins with Sam Day from the suns

Your 4 academy draft hopes

 

[dlanod]

By my quick calculations GWS have enough points (1643) this year and next year to match a bid on Green from pick 4 onwards. And seeing as they have pick 4, only have to worry about Sydney at pick 5.

1675 by my calculations - 40, 59, 60 this year and 36 and 54 x2 next year (based off AFL rules), or 1630 (swap the last three to 37 and 55 x2) if the AFL factors in GC's bonus pick which they probably won't.

However it doesn't affect the rest of your calculations, as GWS can at most match a pick worth ~2,094 points which is still less than pick 3.

 

[briztoon]

1675 by my calculations - 40, 59, 60 this year and 36 and 54 x2 next year (based off AFL rules), or 1630 (swap the last three to 37 and 55 x2) if the AFL factors in GC's bonus pick which they probably won't.

However it doesn't affect the rest of your calculations, as GWS can at most match a pick worth ~2,094 points which is still less than pick 3.

Yep, I was factoring in the GC compensation pick, but made it 37, 54 and 55 instead of 55x2.

 

[Viceregal]

And this is where I find myself happy that I have not spent time thinking/agonising/speculating etc about who we are going to draft with our first pick ... it can go ****** and all my thoughts around 16 would have to spiral away to 29 ... for now.

Not that I don't spend my time on other, equally useful, pursuits (like following the Lions 2005-2017)

 

[spotthedog1]

And this is where I find myself happy that I have not spent time thinking/agonising/speculating etc about who we are going to draft with our first pick ... it can go ****** and all my thoughts around 16 would have to spiral away to 29 ... for now.

Not that I don't spend my time on other, equally useful, pursuits (like following the Lions 2005-2017)

Our first pick this year is now pick 21... Gold Coast's second rounder traded last year in a pick swap.

 

[Quigley]

I don't mind the trade. My only concern is that next year's draft is going to be the most compromised ever with a lot of talent going via the academies that the clubs have as well as the father sons. It could result in Port's pick being a fair bit lower than where they finish.

 

[briztoon]

I don't mind the trade. My only concern is that next year's draft is going to be the most compromised ever with a lot of talent going via the academies that the clubs have as well as the father sons. It could result in Port's pick being a fair bit lower than where they finish.

Hi Quigley. What’s your take on the strength of next years draft, and how many academy and FS kids look like top 10 prospects?

As long as Port don’t make finals I’ll be happy.

 

[Clarkythelion]

2 latish first rounders next year, hmmmm now where is Steph Martin's replacement coming from? lots of flexibility now to get a ready made replacement when Steph retires.

 

[pauldrc]

There could be a number of clubs that will be eyeing off our 2 mid/late first rounders to move up or down due to the large number of academy/fs picks.

Could be some genius trading as we again might be enablers in a position to trade these picks for overs.

 

[M Malice]

Stephen Conole on The Roar Deal today said having 2 1st rounders next year is a good position to be in if someone we like is around the mark in the 1st round next Thursday night.

His tip was tune in to the 1st round on draft night there could be some action involving the Lions.

 

[M Malice]

How far up the board do you think we could get in the 1st round this year if we offered up our 21 and Ports 1st next year? Would it be enough for a selection as high as 6-9?

IMO Port will not make the 8 next season so it is probable that the Port selection next year will be a top 10 pick on its own.

 

[briztoon]

How far up the board do you think we could get in the 1st round this year if we offered up our 21 and Ports 1st next year? Would it be enough for a selection as high as 6-9?

IMO Port will not make the 8 next season so it is probable that the Port selection next year will be a top 10 pick on its own.

My guess is we traded 16 for a future first round pick when we found it very hard to near impossible to trade 16 and 21 for a top 10 to 12 pick.

Post trade period, Noble mentioned in several interviews that we wanted to package 16 and 21 to move up for a pick in the top 10 to 12 of the draft.

Problem is Gold Coast has said the same thing, holding 15 and 20. And Geelong has also said the same thing holding 14 and 17.

Melbourne has been mentioned as possibly wanting 2 first round picks, putting Geelong in the box seat holding 14 and 17.

I still believe come draft night, our best chance at a trade might eventuate if Fremantle receive a bid on Henry around pick 12 to 14.

We can offer 29 and 34 for 22 and 58. That will give us 21 and 22 on night two of the draft, and a chance to pick up two of the best kids left on board, target a need, or a strong trade option for clubs looking to move up for a specific player.

We could literally turn both picks in to future firsts. Move back and take our academy kids, push a pick in to the rookie draft for Johnson’s kid or another academy kid. Pick up a slider, such as Flynn Perez who missed the whole year due to a preseason ACL.

 

[luthor]

We could literally turn both picks in to future firsts. Move back and take our academy kids, push a pick in to the rookie draft for Johnson’s kid or another academy kid.

I didn't know until today that Johnson Jnr had done an ACL back in July

I did know however, that he had been previously linked with Essendon through the NGA.

So I'm wondering whether that unfortunate injury means that the Bombers have cooled on him or is it still basically a two horse race?

 

[briztoon]

I didn't know until today that Johnson Jnr had done an ACL back in July

I did know however, that he had been previously linked with Essendon through the NGA.

So I'm wondering whether that unfortunate injury means that the Bombers have cooled on him or is it still basically a two horse race?

An ACL isn’t as bad as what it once was. Noah Cumberland did his ACL last year, and had a very good U18 year this year. You wouldn’t know it watching him play this year.

Ok I’ve listened to it twice now to make sure I heard what I heard.

Dom asked Conole if we had made a commitment to take Lachie Johnson in the rookie draft if he gets through the national draft, and Conole was pretty firm with his yeah, twice.

Now I thought our rookie list was full with the commitments to redraft our delisted free agents.

Which leads me to speculate one of them has a deal in place at another club and will sign elsewhere as a delisted free agent. Or possibly will be drafted in the national draft by another team.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Which leads me to speculate one of them has a deal in place at another club and will sign elsewhere as a delisted free agent. Or possibly will be drafted in the national draft by another team.

Maybe the Archie Smith to Sydney rumours are true.

 

[T Rick]

An ACL isn’t as bad as what it once was. Noah Cumberland did his ACL last year, and had a very good U18 year this year. You wouldn’t know it watching him play this year.

Ok I’ve listened to it twice now to make sure I heard what I heard.

Dom asked Conole if we had made a commitment to take Lachie Johnson in the rookie draft if he gets through the national draft, and Conole was pretty firm with his yeah, twice.

Now I thought our rookie list was full with the commitments to redraft our delisted free agents.

Which leads me to speculate one of them has a deal in place at another club and will sign elsewhere as a delisted free agent. Or possibly will be drafted in the national draft by another team.

Thanks for all your insights into the Draft Briztoon!

 

[Quigley]

Hi Quigley. What’s your take on the strength of next years draft, and how many academy and FS kids look like top 10 prospects?

As long as Port don’t make finals I’ll be happy.

I don't rate this year's draft overly highly and my early feel is that next year will be about the same as this. A major difference being the sheer number of players that will come out of the pool due to already being committed to clubs. I note there is a high proportion of committed players in the AFL Academy for next year which indicates that they should figure in the draft talk at this stage.

As far as the pointy end I am thinking maybe 3 or so will figure in top 10 contention with a fair few others in the back half of the first round. I am expecting the first round to end at about 25 next year. Admittedly though things change a great deal between now and then.

If Port don't make finals I will be happy as well and will think we have come away with a win.

 

[JasRulz63]

Now I thought our rookie list was full with the commitments to redraft our delisted free agents.

Which leads me to speculate one of them has a deal in place at another club and will sign elsewhere as a delisted free agent. Or possibly will be drafted in the national draft by another team.

I think in the original article, it mentioned we'll either re-draft them on the primary or rookie list. If the four players aren't taken by any other teams, we could in theory take them with pick 71. If we don't want to use pick 71 on them, I'm not sure how it'll work unless one has a commitment from another team like you mentioned.