2019 Expectations

blue shark

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At the end of the year I expect we target Longmuir, Caracella, Justin has been coaching since 2010, Blake since 2007.
JL Freo, WC, Pies. BC Pies, Geelong. Tigers.
Glass is the smokey, 2 years at Hawks, but also an Academic.
 

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Yato

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I am quietly optimistic. We played the 2 grand final teams from last year in not ideal circumstances. We will regroup and put our best foot forward in Round 1 and I think there may be positive expectations in this thread. It will be nice when we have Fyfe, Blakely and Stephen Hill in the side and I am also looking forward to seeing if Sandi can make an impact this year too. Don't look too much into the JLT.
 

go_the_dockers

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Best case

We get our best 22 together after the bye.
Win 4 out of the first 6, then struggle until the bye and make a late finals push.

Worst case
Start poorly, injury list gets worse and we win 5 to 7 games.
 

Scham

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At the end of the year I expect we target Longmuir, Caracella, Justin has been coaching since 2010, Blake since 2007.
JL Freo, WC, Pies. BC Pies, Geelong. Tigers.
Glass is the smokey, 2 years at Hawks, but also an Academic.
Yep, I'd look at replacing Prior with Glass.
 

blue shark

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Yep, I'd look at replacing Prior with Glass.
With Clarkson, Mitchell supposedly the brains behind WC 2018, Glass may have the stones to push for change.
The other two you would suspect would want a Pies, Dee's commitment with Ross fulfilling his contract in a mentoring role. That would be a "Wheels have totally fallen off" scenario.
 

M_rash

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The Age journos predictions.

Has worst case = spoon
Best case = 15th

Sadly, I concur... but with the 3rd youngest list, and our usual injury concerns... it feels about right. Pretty sure we’ll avoid the spoon though. Think we have Gold Coast covered. Other than that, toss a coin for Saints and Blues, and we would need some injury luck to get ahead of Dogs, Roos or Brissy. Our saving grace is Optus Stadium - not only do we seem to play better, but other teams sometimes play worse.

My predicted finish... 15th.
Best case... flag
Optimistic case... 12-10th
Worst case... 17th

There really are no easy games this year... except maybe Freo on the road if we don’t fix that from last year!

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/footy-in-2019-the-long-term-afl-forecast-20190309-p512yr.html
 
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Even though we won 8 games in both 2017 and 2018, our 2018 campaign was better:

- started to win more consistently at home (in 2017 we won most of our games in one streak with very small margins)
- with exception of the Geelong game we stopped the absolute 100 point shockers (we had 3 in 2017)
- played a much younger team in 2018 than 2017

Injuries permitting, I think we will again see improvement:
- Lobb, Hogan, and Conca are all obvious improvements with Neale the only major loss.
- Brayshaw, Cerra, Banfield, Darcy, Cox, Ryan, Duman, Switkowski, and maybe Tucker should still all be on the "natural" improvement path where mere extra experience and another pre-season results in a more capable footballer
- Neale leaving maybe the best thing possible for Blakely, Brayshaw and Cerra as it provides midfield opportunity that they simply wouldn't have got if Neale stayed

If you can get two forwards to kick 40+ goals for the year, most of the time you play finals. I believe it is reasonable to expect 2 out of the following are capable of that: Hogan, Walters, Lobb, Cox.

I'm predicting we finish either 7 or 8 and travel to play an elimination final.
 

Scham

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They were my expectations this year.

We absolutely must not have any floggings anywhere near 100 pts this coming year. That would be unacceptable with the same list as this year but with the improvements we’ve made to the list, it’s a given.

We must be more consistently competitive this year regardless of wins and losses and ladder position.

Our sports science must improve but I have serious doubts that it will while we still have the same personnel running it.

To achieve what we all know the squad is capable of, we must have our best 25 available for most games and a gameplan that’s relevant.

The recruiters and list managers have done their bit. It’s now up to Lyon and Webber to get the final two pieces to fit.

My expectations haven’t changed from Nov.
 

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My expectations haven’t changed from Nov.
Yeah I was thinking that adding Hogan, Lobb, Colyer and Conca we couldn't possibly get worse...But the constant stream of serious injuries, and our complete inability to show more than 20 minutes of semi-competent football in the JLT has shaken any confidence I had about the season.

I actually think we're at serious risk of dropping all of our first 4 games (maybe the Gold Coast will outshine us in the shitness stakes) and that is supposed to be the easy ride into the season...after that it could get worse as the confidence leaks out like balloon with a small hole
 

wayToGo_

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Given our current injury list I think it's incredible that plenty of people still have us as favourites against North in round 1. Home ground advantage of course but quite a few think North will make the 8 and if Tarrant comes in they won't be missing many B22 players at all. If we win that game I suspect it will turn around a lot of views on here (well it should). But if we don't we should have enough talent to beat GC and StK. 3-0 or 2-1 heading into the Derby in Round 4 isn't too bad. Our player availability could look a lot better by then.

Although our current injury situation is dire, in some ways we are lucky it's now because we have 3 winnable games to start the season. Imagine if we had 3 decent teams to start against, with all our missing players? We'd probably get thumped and never recover. The key will be being competitive for the early parrt of the season and not adding to our injury list until we get players back. I don't think it should change our outlook, as our second half of the season is easier, we should have better player availability (hopefully) and most importantly our new players might have settled in far better by then.
 

Quokka

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My expectations haven’t changed from Nov.
Unfortunately neither have mine from October.


After another tough year I'm actually looking forward to the offseason and to be honest atm I'm about as pessimistic about Freo as I've been in a long time.

I'm sure all it will take is one good preseason game (Well we didn't get that) and I'll be amped again and I'm hoping for the new players to gel, a few more wins and an improved %. But right now what do I expect?

Injuries will an even bigger risk than normally, our best 22 is looking much better but I'm not sure we will cover long term injuries well, I don't think we're going to have a lot of depth.

Can see us struggling to get the ball out of the centre cleanly or to lock it into the forward 50 if one of our forwards don't take a clean mark.

Don't make the most of our opportunities, get tired by mid year and Lyon is gone before 2020.

Obviously not a particularly serious prediction and there's heaps to play out before round one even begins but like was said earlier in the thread, I think our % is a bigger indication than our wins the last few years and there needs to be a lot of things improving for us to actually be improving more than the teams around us.

I am really looking forward to the football being back again and Fremantle are at the point now where we should see some upswing in both gameplay and results, and so I have hope, but similar to others its not going to be a complete shock if the season goes another way.

What should be a definite though is that this is a make or break season for Lyon, if Freo shows a better balance and can be competitive, awesome but if they mirror the last three years too closely then a change in coaching and strategy needs to be on the table.
 
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Http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-03-13/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2019-season-predictions

This could prob go in the media thread but...fits here too. Two of the journos have Freo making finals. I don’t share this view but I agree with the people saying it’s gonna be a win-win season. If our play is crap and we get flogged, Ross is gone. Win! If our key youngsters (Cerra, AB, Banners, etc) take a step forward, our i50 delivery improves, our forward line gels, we appear to have some semblance of a game plan, and we end up 9-12 on ladder, we have hope for 2020. Win!

That said, I think the former rather than later is more likely but I want to see how these first 4 games go.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

wayToGo_

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I can't find the thread/post anymore (BF search is ****ing useless) but someone was talking about our average losing margin last year - and our poor form away. One thing that wasn't discussed much (either here or in the media) was who we played away last season.

So of our 11 away games, 7 were against top 8 teams (Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, Melbourne, Sydney, GWS and Geelong) plus 2 more against top 11 teams (Port and Essendon). So we played 9 of the top 11 teams away. We lost all 9 of those games. The other two away games (against GC and Carlton) we won comfortably (although GC was at Optus, not that it would have mattered).

At home the only top 8 teams we played were West Coast and Hawthorn - we lost to both but that's nothing unusual given our recent history with both. We did however manage to win at home against Port, Essendon, Adelaide, Dogs, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton. That's every team who finished 10th or lower, except Brisbane - which was, in my opinion, our worst game of the season and was triggered by Sandilands being an out seconds from the bounce.

This season our away fixture can't possibly end up that lopsided, and our team won't be carrying up to half a dozen first year players, so I'm expecting us to be far more competitive away. At home I think we might now have the firepower up forward to put on big scores and have higher winning margins against those teams in the bottom half of the ladder. So I'd be expecting lower losing margins (especially away), and higher winning margins (especially at home). The question is whether it changes our win/loss record at all? If we are capable of beating mid table teams either at home or away like North (at home in Rd 1), and Port (at home in Rd 13 and away in Rd 23) then we can definitely improve both our percentage and win/loss this season. Irrespective of ladder position I'm expecting a 100%+ percentage this season.
 
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I can't find the thread/post anymore (BF search is ****ing useless) but someone was talking about our average losing margin last year - and our poor form away. One thing that wasn't discussed much (either here or in the media) was who we played away last season.

So of our 11 away games, 7 were against top 8 teams (Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, Melbourne, Sydney, GWS and Geelong) plus 2 more against top 11 teams (Port and Essendon). So we played 9 of the top 11 teams away. We lost all 9 of those games. The other two away games (against GC and Carlton) we won comfortably (although GC was at Optus, not that it would have mattered).

At home the only top 8 teams we played were West Coast and Hawthorn - we lost to both but that's nothing unusual given our recent history with both. We did however manage to win at home against Port, Essendon, Adelaide, Dogs, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton. That's every team who finished 10th or lower, except Brisbane - which was, in my opinion, our worst game of the season and was triggered by Sandilands being an out seconds from the bounce.

This season our away fixture can't possibly end up that lopsided, and our team won't be carrying up to half a dozen first year players, so I'm expecting us to be far more competitive away. At home I think we might now have the firepower up forward to put on big scores and have higher winning margins against those teams in the bottom half of the ladder. So I'd be expecting lower losing margins (especially away), and higher winning margins (especially at home). The question is whether it changes our win/loss record at all? If we are capable of beating mid table teams either at home or away like North (at home in Rd 1), and Port (at home in Rd 13 and away in Rd 23) then we can definitely improve both our percentage and win/loss this season. Irrespective of ladder position I'm expecting a 100%+ percentage this season.
The fixture has conspired against us over the past three years in relation to interstate games.

We've played 18 games v top 8 teams and only 11 games v bottom 10 teams interstate.

We're 4-7 v bottom 10 teams and only 1-17 v top 8 teams (Mundy's last gasp goal v Richmond in 2017 prevented us being 0-18).

This season our interstate games are evenly split at 5-5 with regards to top 8 v bottom 10 teams (if you can believe the betting markets): GWS; Collingwood; Melbourne; Essendon and Adelaide v Hawthorn; Western B's; St Kilda; Port and Gold Coast.
 
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If this thread is about expectations then it should start with making the 8
Our backline is becoming established
If we can get them on the park we have some big fwd firepower and Walters and ? To feed off them
Our midfield has Fyfe, Mundy, Blakey [soon I hope) and some developing mids which should hold us in good stead with the 666
Would love to have Sandi on the park... But looking forward to seeing Darcy develop with Lobb assisting
We need to make the craypot our fortress...
I'm starting with a positive mindset
 
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