Competitions 2019 Fantasy Questions

eth-dog

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Thread starter #1
That time of year, who's burning up the track? Who's a good option as an underpriced player? For Essendon I'd seriously consider:

Heppell: Consistent scorer due to high possession and inside ball winning rate
Merrett: Obvious reasons
Shiel: Think he might be the big one for us, priced at 487k in Supercoach but I think he'll be one of the ones that you'll get consistent 100+ scores from
Francis: Really think it'll be a break out year for big red, although an awkward price at 350k
Gleeson: Not straight away, but I think after 3 games his price will drop and then after that he can be a potential cash cow.
Z Clarke: Not many back up rucks fill me with glee, so he's up there.

I nly have two (Shiel and Francis) at this stage.
 

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owen87

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#2
That time of year, who's burning up the track? Who's a good option as an underpriced player? For Essendon I'd seriously consider:

Heppell: Consistent scorer due to high possession and inside ball winning rate
Merrett: Obvious reasons
Shiel: Think he might be the big one for us, priced at 487k in Supercoach but I think he'll be one of the ones that you'll get consistent 100+ scores from
Francis: Really think it'll be a break out year for big red, although an awkward price at 350k
Gleeson: Not straight away, but I think after 3 games his price will drop and then after that he can be a potential cash cow.
Z Clarke: Not many back up rucks fill me with glee, so he's up there.

I nly have two (Shiel and Francis) at this stage.
Merrett should be our highest Fantasy scorer; if he can get more possessions on the outside and use his kicking then his SuperCoach scores could see a big increase. The inclusion of Shiel also means he's less likely to be tagged. In Fantasy i'll take him, in SC he could be one to go early on at R3 if his kick numbers and DE% jump. He's priced at 100 and has 2 season around the 110 mark already, with those being a 117 in Fantasy, so he's got the potential to really jump.

Outside that I think Hurley will drop out of being a Top-6 SC defender, McGrath / Parish / Langford might all see an increase, but think they're all a bit awkwardly priced, Daniher (especially in SC) is a sneaky chance for some big price jumps early if he's fully fit for R1. Zac Clarke is one of the better R3 options, but Fort from Geelong is probably the most likely to get games early.

Can't see much upside in Smith, Heppell or Zaharakis from 2018 prices. Smith should be a Top-6 forward still but he's priced at his ceiling anyway.

Shiel could see a jump, but he's never been a big scorer (best was 102 avg from 14 games in 2015) and I don't think he's got the ceiling for a Top-8 midfielder in either format.
 

eth-dog

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Thread starter #3
Merrett should be our highest Fantasy scorer; if he can get more possessions on the outside and use his kicking then his SuperCoach scores could see a big increase. The inclusion of Shiel also means he's less likely to be tagged. In Fantasy i'll take him, in SC he could be one to go early on at R3 if his kick numbers and DE% jump. He's priced at 100 and has 2 season around the 110 mark already, with those being a 117 in Fantasy, so he's got the potential to really jump.

Outside that I think Hurley will drop out of being a Top-6 SC defender, McGrath / Parish / Langford might all see an increase, but think they're all a bit awkwardly priced, Daniher (especially in SC) is a sneaky chance for some big price jumps early if he's fully fit for R1. Zac Clarke is one of the better R3 options, but Fort from Geelong is probably the most likely to get games early.

Can't see much upside in Smith, Heppell or Zaharakis from 2018 prices. Smith should be a Top-6 forward still but he's priced at his ceiling anyway.

Shiel could see a jump, but he's never been a big scorer (best was 102 avg from 14 games in 2015) and I don't think he's got the ceiling for a Top-8 midfielder in either format.
Heppell has averaged 90+ every year since 2013, and his past four seasons he's gone 106.4, 104.8, 99.5 and 101.6. You don't buy Heppell for upside, you buy him for consistency.
 

owen87

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#4
Heppell has averaged 90+ every year since 2013, and his past four seasons he's gone 106.4, 104.8, 99.5 and 101.6. You don't buy Heppell for upside, you buy him for consistency.
Yes, he'll be consistently not a Top-8 midfielder that is already priced at his ceiling.

I like Heppell as a player, but unless you're playing Draft, he's not likely to be SC relevant. You either need him to be under-priced, or be a guaranteed Top 8 mid come end of season, and he's neither.

Merrett or Crouch are both the same price but have 10+ points of proven upside in them; or Sloane, Adams and Zorko are cheaper with 10 - 15 points of upside.
 

eth-dog

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Thread starter #5
Yes, he'll be consistently not a Top-8 midfielder that is already priced at his ceiling.

I like Heppell as a player, but unless you're playing Draft, he's not likely to be SC relevant. You either need him to be under-priced, or be a guaranteed Top 8 mid come end of season, and he's neither.

Merrett or Crouch are both the same price but have 10+ points of proven upside in them; or Sloane, Adams and Zorko are cheaper with 10 - 15 points of upside.
I don't have him but I think there's always relevance for a proven 100+ scorer year on year.
 

owen87

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#7
I don't have him but I think there's always relevance for a proven 100+ scorer year on year.
He's one of those players that could jump with a slight role change, and is relevant in draft leagues. For a starter you want someone with significant upside, or that is already priced at their ceiling (where that ceiling has them as Top 6 / 8 in their position).

McGrath down back an obvious one for me going off training reports he looks set to kick the ball more often, Langford i dont think would be a bad choice either up forward.
Agree that Parish / Langford as FWD, and McGrath as DEF both offer upside. McGrath would be the pick of those three for me, he's $50k cheaper, with a significant role change, and was a massive ball-winner as an U18. Unfortunately I think Nic Newman at only $10k more has better upside in him given he'll play Docherty's role, has some massive scores on the books at Sydney, and Carlton will see plenty of ball in their back half.
 

eDPS

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#8
He's one of those players that could jump with a slight role change, and is relevant in draft leagues. For a starter you want someone with significant upside, or that is already priced at their ceiling (where that ceiling has them as Top 6 / 8 in their position).



Agree that Parish / Langford as FWD, and McGrath as DEF both offer upside. McGrath would be the pick of those three for me, he's $50k cheaper, with a significant role change, and was a massive ball-winner as an U18. Unfortunately I think Nic Newman at only $10k more has better upside in him given he'll play Docherty's role, has some massive scores on the books at Sydney, and Carlton will see plenty of ball in their back half.
I have both McGrath and Newman ;)
 

eth-dog

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Thread starter #9
He's one of those players that could jump with a slight role change, and is relevant in draft leagues. For a starter you want someone with significant upside, or that is already priced at their ceiling (where that ceiling has them as Top 6 / 8 in their position).



Agree that Parish / Langford as FWD, and McGrath as DEF both offer upside. McGrath would be the pick of those three for me, he's $50k cheaper, with a significant role change, and was a massive ball-winner as an U18. Unfortunately I think Nic Newman at only $10k more has better upside in him given he'll play Docherty's role, has some massive scores on the books at Sydney, and Carlton will see plenty of ball in their back half.
Williamson from Carlton is my pick. 189k, could be a 200k+ increase IMO
 

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owen87

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#12
None of them sadly :(
I've got Newman, Miles and Worpel at the moment.

Think all 3 have 15 - 20 points more in them. Miles has averaged at least 90 every time he's played a full season (with a 99 from 12 games and 97 from 22) yet is priced around a 70 average. Worpel probably the one I'm most shaky on presently.
 

owen87

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#13
Williamson from Carlton is my pick. 189k, could be a 200k+ increase IMO
I've not seen enough of him previously, will he get a role with a fully bit back 22 (sans Docherty) for Carlton?

Jones - Weitering - Plowman(?)
Newman - Marchbank - Simpson
 
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#16
only fantasy relevant Essendon SC players are

Zerrett
D Smith
Shiel
Langford
Parish
McGrath
Francis
Daniher
Begley / Z Clarke (if they play)


I've only got Zerrett and I might get Daniher if he plays JLT and is moving fine.

outside that Langford / McGrath / Francis for improvement but there are other options at that price points, like Roberton / Hanley / B Smith / Newman in DEF and Billings / Dahlhaus / Tom Lynch (RIC) / Worpel / Armo in FWD, so they'd be hard to select
 

GUMBLETRON

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#17
Shiel could see a jump, but he's never been a big scorer (best was 102 avg from 14 games in 2015) and I don't think he's got the ceiling for a Top-8 midfielder in either format.
What piques my interest with Shiel is, while he's topped out around 100, he's done so from ~75% gametime, where most senior midfielders play ~85%. I can't say whether that's been due to a limited tank or GWS intentionally playing him in bursts, but if he can maintain his possession rate and ramp up his time on ground 110+ is viable.
 

owen87

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#18
What piques my interest with Shiel is, while he's topped out around 100, he's done so from ~75% gametime, where most senior midfielders play ~85%. I can't say whether that's been due to a limited tank or GWS intentionally playing him in bursts, but if he can maintain his possession rate and ramp up his time on ground 110+ is viable.
He's reasonably explosive; so someone like Tom Mitchell who has a high TOG% and relies largely on smarts to clear by hand, is very different to a Shiel who breaks out as a runner. But Josh Kelly also played < 80% TOG so maybe it's a GWS thing to rotate them more frequently.

Merrett played < 80% for us, I think we'll see them rotate through with reasonable frequency, and maybe a bump from Shiel's TOG% but still don't think he'll make that Top 8 scoring group of Mids. Think Merrett is a better bet there.
 
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#19
What piques my interest with Shiel is, while he's topped out around 100, he's done so from ~75% gametime, where most senior midfielders play ~85%. I can't say whether that's been due to a limited tank or GWS intentionally playing him in bursts, but if he can maintain his possession rate and ramp up his time on ground 110+ is viable.
Generally speaking, by players 4th / 5th by year their TOG% doesn't change much, unless there has been injury effected games (ie zerrett been KO'd last year) or significant role change.

My poster boy for this is Jack Ziebell. Amazing SC ratio when on the park but could never develop the mid 80s TOG in mid rotation

Moved back to move Fwd time last year which increases his TOG

Shiel has hardly gone 130 SC in games, so is a pretty easy pass for me. I'd prefer zorko at that price.
 

blitzer

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#24
Currently in my supercoach team I have Merrett and McGrath. Francis is probably the other one in serious consideration.

If Begley gets a spot round 1 he would be in my team at 167k. I probably wouldn't take Ridley even if he makes round 1 team because I just don't trust our match selection to keep him in. You could make an argument for Parish but too speculative for my interest. I was initially keen on Shiel but historically he hasn't scored well enough to justify as a genuine midfield premium so I'd rather go other fallen premiums instead. I have had daydreams about including Daniher but even at his best he's probably an 85-90 player which is pretty awkward to work with.
 
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