Preview 2019 Fixture
- Thread starter Smeg Head
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The statement that pissed me off was that Essenson has been given more prime time exposure because they play an exciting brand, won trade week and are the media's hot pick to make the 8. They are clearly forgetting how they stunk it up in the first half of the year and didn't play finals, having not finished above 7th for 13 years.
What are you both talking about , that graph has nothing to do with the top 4 or Geelong . Its ranked hardest draw to easiest draw and Geelong are middle of the road as far as a hard draw goes
nobbyiscool
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In the couple of places I've seen this, I haven't seen any of them explain what the colours mean. Can anyone help out an apparent idiot?
The teams were ranked in four categories with the the top-four teams highlighted in red, teams in fifth to eighth in pink, ninth to 14th in white, and 15th to 18th in green.
That's what I'm talking about, the difficulty of the draw is predicated on the nonsense that Geelong are a top 4 ranked team and Coll are ranked 5th to 8th.
Pretty happy with the fixture, more night games & less of those shitty Sunday arvo games.
No it isnt , it is based on the teams they are playing twice how heavily they scored against them.
Edited . Based on percentage last year , not ladder position
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Not quite.
The colours are based on points differential from last season and were then averaged according to their opponents in the 2019 fixture.
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Wtf are you talking about? Geelong is red. Top 4 hardest ranked.
positive - every second home game isn't a Sunday twilight game.
3 MCG games is probably the most we have had in a season in a long time.
A lot of Saturday home games, yeah.
No 5 day breaks and very few 6 day breaks.
Neg - Reigning premiers getting shipped off to the desert where no BIG VIC teams will ever venture.
6 other teams getting more Friday night games including one who didn't even make the finals. 3 for us is good but come on one team get's 7 and 3 others get 5. Not exactly a fair spread.
Overall though much more positive than negative that is for sure.
3 MCG games is probably the most we have had in a season in a long time.
A lot of Saturday home games, yeah.
No 5 day breaks and very few 6 day breaks.
Neg - Reigning premiers getting shipped off to the desert where no BIG VIC teams will ever venture.
6 other teams getting more Friday night games including one who didn't even make the finals. 3 for us is good but come on one team get's 7 and 3 others get 5. Not exactly a fair spread.
Overall though much more positive than negative that is for sure.
Pulsedriver
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The AFL's a bit behind the times not providing WC 5 G.
Miguel Sanchez
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Redid the graphic to take into account 2018 finishing position, rather than points differential. It took a bit longer than I thought but the result was quite colourful.
So Melboirne have the tuffest draw
- Aug 22, 2009
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Never to early to have a guess at wins for next year:
does the WIN column show your estimated probability of winning that particular games?
AFL grooming....?
- Aug 22, 2009
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Sure does. I tried to be fair/conservative and ended up with 13.2
So got a bit more confident and got to 14.
Our three games against the G and our Geelong and Sydney away games are five really tough fixtures.
I didnt look at the colours just read it was based against the heaviest scoring teams which Melbourne Richmond Geelong and then us were , then next 4 lighter and so on
Miguel Sanchez
(Unique injury) TBC
I count four games where we’re underdogs and three 50-50s.
Even with one win out of those games we’d be 16-6 provided we don’t have any upset losses.
It is an excellent estimate and I agreed with most of the number even though it is only a "gut feel" estimates.
With these estimates, someone who has access to a mathematical or probability software like SPSS, MATLAB can derive a Probability Distribution of "Number of Win Vs the associated Probability".
Any university professor or mathematics student in the forum ? (or someone who still remember the good old Binomial Statistics)
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- Aug 22, 2009
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- 28,080
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Final Siren on the main board runs the squiggle which does all this and more. He should have a 2019 ladder prediction out soon which takes into account 2018 performance, draw and home ground advantage.
