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Position 2019 Forwards

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CrozaN said:
Anyone else on the Dunkley train? (keeping his mid role ;))
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At the moment, I’m on him on because I don’t trust Libba to actually stay fit. He’s a 90ish player in the mid if Libba plays but 110ish if Libba doesn’t play
 

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Dark Sharks said:
Even in his "break out" season in 2018, his average only improved by 3 pts.


Scores of 59, 51, 38, 36 ,56, 48 and 28 don't do anything for my chol either.
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thats key forwards for you

I mean this guy aint even an exxer yet
 
Dark Sharks said:
Even in his "break out" season in 2018, his average only improved by 3 pts.


Scores of 59, 51, 38, 36 ,56, 48 and 28 don't do anything for my chol either.
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But he didn't breakout in 2018 though. He basicaly just consolidated his 2017 season, even though Carlton slumped from 6 wins to only 2 wins. 49.2, 74.2, 77.5 is still an upward trajectory. Not many players fully breakout in only their 3rd season, especially KPF's from a wooden spoon team. His young teammates are another year older, Mackay is starting to look ominous as a monster fwd. Carlton have traded in some more talent, in particular forward depth in GovJnr which will hopefully free up Charlie a bit. I reckon Charlie's progression will be 87-92 average in 2019 and 100+ in 2020 in his 5th seaon.
 
Andrew Birch said:
But he didn't breakout in 2018 though. He basicaly just consolidated his 2017 season, even though Carlton slumped from 6 wins to only 2 wins. 49.2, 74.2, 77.5 is still an upward trajectory. Not many players fully breakout in only their 3rd season, especially KPF's from a wooden spoon team. His young teammates are another year older, Mackay is starting to look ominous as a monster fwd. Carlton have traded in some more talent, in particular forward depth in GovJnr which will hopefully free up Charlie a bit. I reckon Charlie's progression will be 87-92 average in 2019 and 100+ in 2020 in his 5th seaon.
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Totally agree .....once Carlton's midfield matures and becomes more dominant, Curnow will then get greater supply & better scoring .....but it's hard to select a KPF for a bottom side, not likely to win more than 6-7 games
 
Forwards are haaaaard this year, so many good high price options and there's a few juicy cheapies.

Danger is the only player I've locked in, after that I'm lost. Smith and Heeney my next two favourites, but doubt I'll be able to afford both
 
stevebbb said:
Forwards are haaaaard this year, so many good high price options and there's a few juicy cheapies.

Danger is the only player I've locked in, after that I'm lost. Smith and Heeney my next two favourites, but doubt I'll be able to afford both
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I have the same problem but opposite reasons. Don't like many of the high price options (will post in depth later, sick day at work, currently doing up a bit on the top 15 2018 forwards) and none of the cheapies really excite me. So at the moment it's Dangerfield and Heeney, with a combo of 1 or 2 others. Would love to have 5 forwards and 7 defenders!
 

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Heeney is just about an auto-lock for the next decade IMO, provided he remains a DPP. Hasn’t even properly broken out as a footballer.

Smith is good value, Billings is great value (especially in a contract year) and if Greene is right to go he’s an easy pick.

I’ve only had a quick scour through, but I couldn’t see too many good mid-priced forwards.
 
Premiums

Caveat – there’s always some players who defy their ‘history’, such as Hawkins and Westhoff in 2018, so just because ‘history’ indicates something, doesn’t mean you can’t go against it. But I think it helps to pick up some safe, stock players and not potentially ruin your season straight up by picking 3 or 4 risky premiums (which you easily can in forwards). Bolded are players I personally consider options to start with.
I tried to do this without any bias/preconceived notions, which is obviously difficult, but I did try to report the stats as I found them and assess whether it made each player a valuable starter or probably better off as an upgrade target. Dangerfield is F1, this is for F2/F3 even F4.

Hawkins:
Why - Huge unexpected jump with a normal average between 80-90 jumping up to 101 in 2018, backed by 6 scores over 120 in his last 11 games. New 6-6-6 rules may create an advantage with Geelong able to generate quick clearances

Why not - $550k, he would need to start well to maintain his price. Being a key forward, he is always going to have ebbs and flows. 2018 he had 5 scores below 80 (3 below 60), 2017 he had 9 scores below 80 (3 below 60), 2016 he had 9 scores below 80 (3 below 60), 2015 he had 9 scores below 80 (5 below 60) etc.
Also, he’s a slow starter. 2018 he had 989 points @ 89.9 before the bye, 1,048 @ 116.4 after the bye. 2017 he had 886 points @ 80.5 before the bye, 751 points @ 93.9 after the bye. 2016 he had 1,034 points @ 79.5 before the bye, 741 points @ 92.6 after the bye. Are paying a premium price ($550k) for a forward who has a strong history of multiple low scores a season, a poor starter, and at this stage the 101 is an outlier, not the normal. The value play is not starting with him.

Westhoff:
Why - had a career best year at 31 years old in 2018, largely supported by his best ball winning year as a secondary ruck/forward. Earns his points in multiple ways (disposals, tackles, hitouts, goals) rather than relying on 1 stat line that could be shut down.

Why not - But just how does he fit in with Lycett and Ryder, with Dixon potentially starting slow after a broken leg late last year. 32 years of age. 2nd best season average was 98.6 achieved in 2013, he started 2014 by dropping 100k in 8 weeks and 160k in 10 weeks.

Elsewhere? - I think he is best utilised if you don’t trust Gawn or Grundy – start Westhoff as R2 and if they start to dominate, you’re not as far off as if you pick Longer/Mumford etc, and if all goes well you can swap Westhoff to the forwards and upgrade a forward rookie to Gawn/Grundy mid-season.

Franklin:
Why - not sure of the exact stats but based on his more easily accessible season averages he has finished in the top 10 forwards for 7 of the last 11 years (and not far off it with 2 of the other years).
Why not - But he has clear niggles and durability issues. Not so much on a ‘misses games’ basis, but definitely seems to struggle at times making it fully fit throughout the season. Even with a 175 in round 1, he still dropped to 450k by round 11 (4 100s from 8 games plus a 98…). You will be able to pick him up at much cheaper than 550k at some stage if you want him.

Menegola:
Why - Managed to write off any doubters about his scoring ability with Dangerwoodlet Duncan Kelly in 2018, so maybe you just set and forget, and bank that 100 average as a top 8 forward. Extremely impressive career average of 100.1 from 47 games, with season averages of 100.0, 100.4, 99.3. On that alone, he’s consistent, right?

Why not - Consider this – 12/47 of 120+, 19/47 games of 110+, 12/47 between 90-110, 16/47 below 90, 10/47 below 80. 2018 he started off at 550k and did take until round 10 to drop 50k. So potentially you look to pick him up cheaper with 34% of games below 90, 20% below 80, and ride the highs of 25% of 120+ games.

Smith:
Why - As a high tackle volume player, he can score ok with low disposal (sub 20) games, but you’d need to be sure those tackle numbers plateau or increase. However, in the positives, he’s a midfielder, and he has reasonable consistency for a forward. Unlikely to plummet in price I’d think. A 52, 2x 77 and then bunch of scores in the 80s were his lowest.

Why not - In my opinion reached his peak supercoach average in 2018, with a record number of tackles, average of 22 disposals and 1 goal a game. I’d be surprised if those tackle numbers increased (likely will decrease), his goals surely won’t, and so he’d be looking at 25-26 disposals to try make it up to 100. Merrett could have a better year and Shiel will also take some ball winning ability, while Langford will get his fair share of inside mid time.
McDonald:
Why - tick for durability. Played 87 of 88 games from 2014 to 2017, missed the first 5 games of 2018 with his toe injury but played the next 20 games (including finals), had some niggles with the toe early on but still played through. A key forward with consistency – including finals he had 2 scores below 80, 8 scores above 100 (including the average boosting 164 and 135 you need to see), and 10 games between 80-100 which is his ‘stock score’. He should probably get more goals this year without Hogan, but he also goes up the wing which means in his 0 and 1 goal games he still scores alright (93, 90, 80, 103, 39 = 81 av for his worst goalkicking games). His 39 also came the week after he was in doubt after copping a huge knock and having lung bruising from the week before, and only playing 73% TOG (he is a 90%+ mostly).

Out of 2019 eligible forwards he was 7th for average points and should be again durable at this stage of his pre-season.
Why not – how will he go as the big fish, his change in roles may hurt him, points in the Demons side to go around (Oliver, Gawn, Brayshaw, Viney, Harmes etc)

Heeney
Why – 97.6 and 97.5 in his last 2 years, consistent, able to lift in big moments (screamer over Jesse Hogan at FB late in a close game anyone), a goalkicker, able to take contested marks, able to win contested ball. 2017 he was coming off glandular fever, 2018 he had an injury affected 18, still pushed into the top 10. Didn’t have a massive price drop until sort of round 20 in 2018.

Why not – Don’t really have a great reason at this stage? He’s locked in alongside Dangerfield
 
Gray:
Why – potential return to the midfield and an easier run in the draw. From 2014 to 2016 where he averaged only 1.5 goals a game and closer to 26 disposals, his SC average was 110. As a forward in 2017 and 2018, where he averaged closer to 2 goals a game and 20 disposals, he averaged 94. 2018 saw a return to some sort of consistency – while in 2017 he had a 38, 30, 44, 45 and 69, in 2018 his lowest 5 scores were 37, 61, 65, 67, 84.

Why not – modified program, history of significant groin issues and turns 31 early on in the season. Might be a case of “better to have Gray up forward than not on the field at all” and back the mids in. Some very lean periods in 2018, where he only scored 4 100s in 13 weeks after his bye.

Gunston:
Why - a 96 average, which he has been able to achieve before, and a decent amount of ‘stock scores’ between 85-99 (10 total). Relatively consistent, not being a true KP he is more in the Tom McDonald than Ben Brown mould, where he probably won’t score 160s but he won’t score 40s either (or close to it). 96.5 v bottom 6 teams means a harder draw for Hawthorn (2018 double ups v St Kilda, Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong Sydney compared to 2019 double ups v Brisbane, Geelong, North, GWS, West Coast) shouldn’t harm him too much – he didn’t really get any significant boost from poor sides.

Why not - Last time he averaged 96 he dropped 80k in 6 weeks the following season. Potential change in role. Lacks the ability to go as big as often which can be the difference between a 95 average and 100. (3 150s v 1 150 a year)

Mundy:
Why – potential midfield time, has averaged over 100 multiple times with a peak of 113

Why not – 33 and a half, probable Dockers coaching staff leaning towards Cerra/Brayshaw/Banfield etc in the midfield, Perth based player who don’t normally have great longevity

Breust:
Why – career best SC average in 2018, thanks to a 165, 142 and 131, and 6 other 100+ scores. Potential midfield time

Why not – small forward who had 1 spike year. Doesn’t scream ‘must pick’, tougher draw (98.9 v bottom 6 teams last year), Hawks still have 5x main mids and 3 flankers who can go in there

Dunkley:
Why – Well-established. Averaged 111.3 from his last 10 games, with 7 100s, including 6 in a row. As an inside mid, he is close to a must have. BUT

Why not - Can you say he won’t move back to a forward rotation role into the midfield with Liberatore (much more one dimensional) back? Would push him back to the 77 average he had in the first half of 2019

McLean:
Why – Well-established. Averaged 106.7 from his first 11 games, with 8 100s, including 8 in 9. As an inside mid, he is close to a must have BUT

Why not – Can you say he won’t move back to a forward rotation role into the midfield with Liberatore (much more one dimensional) back? Would push him back to the 82.6 average he had in the second half of 2019

Kelly:
Why – Don’t believe in the 2nd year blues for mature aged players, plus don’t believe the “teams will pay him more attention in 2019”. As if teams can only watch tape and adjust tactics in off-seasons. Please. Opposition teams would have included him in plans from about round 4 onwards. Has already put together a 93 season behind Dungerwoodlet in the pecking order, I can’t see Dahlhaus changing him too much.

Why not – Had all sorts of inconsistency week to week, and while he did achieve a 93 average behind the big 4, is there room to increase that? 120 from Danger, 105 from Selwood and Duncan, 100 from Ablett, Menegola, possibly 95 from Hawkins, 90 from Tuohy, there’s a lot of points being scored from his own team.

Riewoldt
Why – Lynch may enable him to either kick more goals by having less attention, or work further up the ground and get more stats

Why not – Lynch may take away some of his goals and other stats. Competition may be better for Richmond overall but it may not benefit Riewoldts SC scores. While his lowest game was a 3 with a concussion, his biggest game was a 219 – take these outliers out and he is actually worse off. I’d say an injury affected game happens more commonly than a 10 goal bag – so that doesn’t work in his favour.

I also included Walters after seeing a bit of discussion elsewhere about him being a potential 100+ player...
Walters:
Why – increased midfield time (see: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018)

Why not – eased back into pre-season, career high season average of 88.9 (with 2x 87s) in 6 seasons since becoming established, it’s an extremely brave man to pick him to suddenly increase that to 100. Plus you get potential suspensions and brain fades
 
Nice write up Sterling.
You don't see Menegola, McDonald or Kelly in many teams, but I agree they are all viable options.
It's just hard to fit them in with Danger locked, Heeney close to it, Gray training with the midfield, Wingard with potentially more mid time and cheaper options like Greene and JJK.
 

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SterlingArcher said:
Smith:
Why - As a high tackle volume player, he can score ok with low disposal (sub 20) games, but you’d need to be sure those tackle numbers plateau or increase. However, in the positives, he’s a midfielder, and he has reasonable consistency for a forward. Unlikely to plummet in price I’d think. A 52, 2x 77 and then bunch of scores in the 80s were his lowest.

Why not - In my opinion reached his peak supercoach average in 2018, with a record number of tackles, average of 22 disposals and 1 goal a game. I’d be surprised if those tackle numbers increased (likely will decrease), his goals surely won’t, and so he’d be looking at 25-26 disposals to try make it up to 100. Merrett could have a better year and Shiel will also take some ball winning ability, while Langford will get his fair share of inside mid time.
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Sterling, could you please do a why - why not? for Kyle Langford as a potential F4?
 
Thoughts on jesse hogan improving his average?

He had some monster scores last year, and some shockers and still came out with a 91 avg. Will the move to freo help his scoring??
 

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