Position 2019 Forwards

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Andrew Birch said:
Sterling, could you please do a why - why not? for Kyle Langford as a potential F4?
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Happy to have a crack although breakout players don't generally have the same statistical backing like when choosing a premium starter. Which makes it gut feel, harder to assess unless you know the players inside out (and as seen with Libba/Dunkley, can't say I`m completely all over Langfords game).

The other warning I`ll put is I`m a sucker for a good end to the previous season in picking breakouts. I have no idea if it actually is a percentage player - far too hard to go through. But despite guys like Savage, McDonald, possibly Billings if I recall correctly, not continuing on from good ends to a previous season, I still fall for that form every time.

Anyway
Why - 47 games and 22yo is a decent breakout platform. Boosted his average to 86 post bye. 3 100s and 2 90s shows good scoring potential. Big bodied mids tend to score well (191cm 90kg),

Why not - consistency still an issue, with not just SC scores but actual playing performance too. Following his bye in his 10 games he had 4 games above 22 disposals and 6 below 16. With a strong first line midfield at Essendon potentially he is more susceptible to quieter games, just on the basis Heppell/Merrett/Shiel/Zaharakis may take some of the ball away from him.
Also a low TOG% player. Only went over 80% 5 times. I don't think you can really correct this in 1 preseason, he`s probably a couple of years away from finishing building that platform with some injuries
 
SterlingArcher said:
Happy to have a crack although breakout players don't generally have the same statistical backing like when choosing a premium starter. Which makes it gut feel, harder to assess unless you know the players inside out (and as seen with Libba/Dunkley, can't say I`m completely all over Langfords game).

The other warning I`ll put is I`m a sucker for a good end to the previous season in picking breakouts. I have no idea if it actually is a percentage player - far too hard to go through. But despite guys like Savage, McDonald, possibly Billings if I recall correctly, not continuing on from good ends to a previous season, I still fall for that form every time.

Anyway
Why - 47 games and 22yo is a decent breakout platform. Boosted his average to 86 post bye. 3 100s and 2 90s shows good scoring potential. Big bodied mids tend to score well (191cm 90kg),

Why not - consistency still an issue, with not just SC scores but actual playing performance too. Following his bye in his 10 games he had 4 games above 22 disposals and 6 below 16. With a strong first line midfield at Essendon potentially he is more susceptible to quieter games, just on the basis Heppell/Merrett/Shiel/Zaharakis may take some of the ball away from him.
Also a low TOG% player. Only went over 80% 5 times. I don't think you can really correct this in 1 preseason, he`s probably a couple of years away from finishing building that platform with some injuries
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Thanks man. Yeh when you put it like that, he's a bit too risky for my liking. If he were 280-300k like Dunkley was last year, he'd be worth a nibble. Too much of a risk at 420k though
 
SterlingArcher said:
Happy to have a crack although breakout players don't generally have the same statistical backing like when choosing a premium starter. Which makes it gut feel, harder to assess unless you know the players inside out (and as seen with Libba/Dunkley, can't say I`m completely all over Langfords game).

The other warning I`ll put is I`m a sucker for a good end to the previous season in picking breakouts. I have no idea if it actually is a percentage player - far too hard to go through. But despite guys like Savage, McDonald, possibly Billings if I recall correctly, not continuing on from good ends to a previous season, I still fall for that form every time.

Anyway
Why - 47 games and 22yo is a decent breakout platform. Boosted his average to 86 post bye. 3 100s and 2 90s shows good scoring potential. Big bodied mids tend to score well (191cm 90kg),

Why not - consistency still an issue, with not just SC scores but actual playing performance too. Following his bye in his 10 games he had 4 games above 22 disposals and 6 below 16. With a strong first line midfield at Essendon potentially he is more susceptible to quieter games, just on the basis Heppell/Merrett/Shiel/Zaharakis may take some of the ball away from him.
Also a low TOG% player. Only went over 80% 5 times. I don't think you can really correct this in 1 preseason, he`s probably a couple of years away from finishing building that platform with some injuries
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Same here ....love the final 4-6 games of the previous year

I'm a big fan of Langford ....but he's progressed far to slowly since his stellar U18 season ....I'd suggest its body size & fitness

Still think he's at least another season away .....tends to remind me a lot of Acres
 

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Daniel McL said:
Here’s my thinking behind the Parfitt selection:

- Last year the times that Parfitt was given more midfield time he impressed. He’s a good contested player, moves well in traffic, also one of our best two-way players working both ways + lays lots of tackles.

- SC scores of 104, 92, 168, 94, 102, 119 & 117 last year means he can score well, and that was while playing mainly forward with little midfield time. The 168 was against St. Kilda & we were able to give him more midfield responsibility where he racked up 28 touches (16 contested) at 71% efficiency, 7 tackles, 3 goals and 14 score involvements. I expect him to get much more midfield time in 2019 which means he might not kick 3 goals in a game but he should get more of the ball + lays lots of tackles so should still score very well.

- The senior players for Geelong this preseason have been talking about young players needing to step up & take more responsibility which is great to hear compared to the usual spiel about the senior players carrying the load + means they also need to give the younger guys (like Parfitt & Narkle) more of a chance in the midfield to show what they can do. Almost every article I’ve read about Geelong’s preseason has mentioned Parfitt being a standout too so he’s having a full preseason + dominating in match simulation in the midfield.

- I see Parfitt being one of the 6 main midfielders in Geelong’s rotations probably along with Dangerfield, J. Selwood, Kelly, Duncan & Narkle. Scott Selwood isn’t good enough to be in the midfield now (hence why we were playing him as a pressure forward to finish last season), Ablett & Menegola will play that HF role (which Menegola played last season anyway) pushing into stoppages but starting outside the centre square with Parfitt taking over from GAJ’s midfield time.

So in conclusion, Parfitt will play a lot more midfield and should rack up a lot more of the ball (consistently 25-35 touches) but even if he has an off day (only 20 touches for example) then he makes up for it with all the tackles he’ll lay anyway. That’s my thinking behind it.

Wish me luck kents :devil:
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I just had a look through his season last year and was surprised by his starting/finishing price and his starting price this year. Seems a premium being paid for his few very high scores. His scores are like a rollercoaster aswell with 28 and 168 being the outliers.
I have added a watch to him, but would like to see a bit more consistency and not sure that will happen in the Geelong midfield until the AFL changes the rules to allow 6 starting midfielders.:think:
 
SterlingArcher said:
Happy to have a crack although breakout players don't generally have the same statistical backing like when choosing a premium starter. Which makes it gut feel, harder to assess unless you know the players inside out (and as seen with Libba/Dunkley, can't say I`m completely all over Langfords game).

The other warning I`ll put is I`m a sucker for a good end to the previous season in picking breakouts. I have no idea if it actually is a percentage player - far too hard to go through. But despite guys like Savage, McDonald, possibly Billings if I recall correctly, not continuing on from good ends to a previous season, I still fall for that form every time.

Anyway
Why - 47 games and 22yo is a decent breakout platform. Boosted his average to 86 post bye. 3 100s and 2 90s shows good scoring potential. Big bodied mids tend to score well (191cm 90kg),

Why not - consistency still an issue, with not just SC scores but actual playing performance too. Following his bye in his 10 games he had 4 games above 22 disposals and 6 below 16. With a strong first line midfield at Essendon potentially he is more susceptible to quieter games, just on the basis Heppell/Merrett/Shiel/Zaharakis may take some of the ball away from him.
Also a low TOG% player. Only went over 80% 5 times. I don't think you can really correct this in 1 preseason, he`s probably a couple of years away from finishing building that platform with some injuries
Click to expand...

To build on this Langford's taken a while to find a spot in the team. Early on he was playing HF roles competing with Laverde and just didn't fit in their well. They tried him in the middle for bits and just seemed off their too. Only during the last off season did they really commit to getting him ready to be an inside midfield and I honestly didn't think there was a good chance he was going to make it at AFL level coming in to last year. He surprised me and many others who doubted him. Slowly over the year he stopped looking awkward in his body, stopped being fumbly below the knees and started making decisions in traffic. It was a revelation as we've been dying for big bodied mids.

So what's the upside?
- second pre-season training for the inside
- still need inside mids (Myers, Langford, Shiel, Heppell are going to be the core - yikes - with Zaka, Smith, Merrett, McGrath, Parish on the outside)
- starting to look powerful in his own skin

Downside
- there is the chance he doesn't start well, plateaus or even regresses

I think he's a great watch JLT candidate. If he's looking fit, fast and smooth with ball in hand as good of a punt as any at that price.
 
Worpel finished the year averaging 88.
Should be into the guts with Mitchell gone.
First to second year usually sees largest jump in average score
Priced 85k cheaper then Chadwick

Why isn't he talked about while wingards in every second side. Can someone clue me in?
 
JDavey said:
Worpel finished the year averaging 88.
Should be into the guts with Mitchell gone.
First to second year usually sees largest jump in average score
Priced 85k cheaper then Chadwick

Why isn't he talked about while wingards in every second side. Can someone clue me in?
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Not sure. I don't really know much about him TBH. :moustache:
 
Yeh cant undestand all the love for Wingard at the moment. I cant see his role changing from what it was at Port. I still think he will spend the majority of the time up forward with brief stints in the midfield which hardly lends itself to any decent scoring. Dont think he has a decent enough tank to spend decent time in the middle Wouldnt go near him with a bargepole unless i am missing something
 
shiva25 said:
Yeh cant undestand all the love for Wingard at the moment. I cant see his role changing from what it was at Port. I still think he will spend the majority of the time up forward with brief stints in the midfield which hardly lends itself to any decent scoring. Dont think he has a decent enough tank to spend decent time in the middle Wouldnt go near him with a bargepole unless i am missing something
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Last 12 games, chad averaged 103 from the same role you think he’ll have now. Near keeper status for a fwd
 
Deliverance said:
Howe, Worpel and Cousins most likely to try and cover Titchs absence. O'Meara and Shiel to do plenty of work in there. Rough will probably have to be in there to help Howe protect the younger guys a bit as well. Chad will push through at times, but he's no contested beast who can replace Titch from what I've seen seen.
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Did you watch Port v Richmond? He dominated the midfield
 
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