Could only find the 2018 version so I figured I'd create a 2019 version. Any general AFL discussions should go in here.
Earlier this year people claimed we were 1-2 years behind Brisbane in terms of our development and I think it's an interesting comparison but is it apt? Let's have a look at Brisbane's 2017 & 2018 results and compare them to ours this year:
R1 - '17 BL def. GC by 2 points / '18 BL def. by StK by 25 points / GC def. by StK by 1 point
R2 - '17 BL def. by Ess by 27 points / '18 BL def. by Mel by 26 points / GC def. Fre by 3 points
R3 - '17 BL def. StK by 31 points / '18 BL def. by PA by 5 points / GC def. WB by 5 points
R4 - '17 BL def. by Ric by 52 points / '18 BL def. by Ric by 93 points / GC def. Car by 2 points
R5 - '17 BL def. by WB by 32 points / '18 BL def. by GC by 5 points / GC def. by Ade by 73 points
R6 - '17 BL def. by PA by 83 points / '18 BL def. by GWS by 34 points / GC def. by BL by 49 points
R7 - '17 BL def. by Syd by 54 points / '18 BL def. by Col by 7 points / GC def. by WC by 23 points
R8 - '17 BL def. by Haw by 38 points / '18 BL def. by WC by 14 points / GC def. by Mel by 1 point
R9 - '17 BL def. by Ade by 80 points / '18 BL def. Haw by 56 points / GC def. by 38 points
Above you will see I bolded wins and italicised games decided by less than a goal. Brisbane had just one win in the first 9 rounds of the 2017 season and that also happened to be the only game they played through that stretch that was decided by less than a goal. Also worth mentioning 7 of their 9 games were 30+ point losses and that usually indicates it wasn't a close game. Now let's skip forward a year and see how they went in 2018. Still just one win over their first 9 rounds but the margins certainly decreased. Only 2 of their 9 games were 30+ point losses and they played in 2 games that were decided by less than a goal.
Now we move onto our performances this year. We have 3 wins on the board to date and have played in 5 games that were decided by less than a goal. 3 of our losses this year have been 30+ point defeats. So what does it mean? With the exception of a few games, we've been very competitive for most of the season so far. We're also winning tight games in 2019 and that's something the Lions of yesteryear weren't doing.
So how far off the Lions are we really? I'm inclined to say it could be as little as 6 months given the data I'm looking at. We just need to land a Lachie Neale type in the off season and we'd almost definitely be in the top 8 right now.
Earlier this year people claimed we were 1-2 years behind Brisbane in terms of our development and I think it's an interesting comparison but is it apt? Let's have a look at Brisbane's 2017 & 2018 results and compare them to ours this year:
R1 - '17 BL def. GC by 2 points / '18 BL def. by StK by 25 points / GC def. by StK by 1 point
R2 - '17 BL def. by Ess by 27 points / '18 BL def. by Mel by 26 points / GC def. Fre by 3 points
R3 - '17 BL def. StK by 31 points / '18 BL def. by PA by 5 points / GC def. WB by 5 points
R4 - '17 BL def. by Ric by 52 points / '18 BL def. by Ric by 93 points / GC def. Car by 2 points
R5 - '17 BL def. by WB by 32 points / '18 BL def. by GC by 5 points / GC def. by Ade by 73 points
R6 - '17 BL def. by PA by 83 points / '18 BL def. by GWS by 34 points / GC def. by BL by 49 points
R7 - '17 BL def. by Syd by 54 points / '18 BL def. by Col by 7 points / GC def. by WC by 23 points
R8 - '17 BL def. by Haw by 38 points / '18 BL def. by WC by 14 points / GC def. by Mel by 1 point
R9 - '17 BL def. by Ade by 80 points / '18 BL def. Haw by 56 points / GC def. by 38 points
Above you will see I bolded wins and italicised games decided by less than a goal. Brisbane had just one win in the first 9 rounds of the 2017 season and that also happened to be the only game they played through that stretch that was decided by less than a goal. Also worth mentioning 7 of their 9 games were 30+ point losses and that usually indicates it wasn't a close game. Now let's skip forward a year and see how they went in 2018. Still just one win over their first 9 rounds but the margins certainly decreased. Only 2 of their 9 games were 30+ point losses and they played in 2 games that were decided by less than a goal.
Now we move onto our performances this year. We have 3 wins on the board to date and have played in 5 games that were decided by less than a goal. 3 of our losses this year have been 30+ point defeats. So what does it mean? With the exception of a few games, we've been very competitive for most of the season so far. We're also winning tight games in 2019 and that's something the Lions of yesteryear weren't doing.
So how far off the Lions are we really? I'm inclined to say it could be as little as 6 months given the data I'm looking at. We just need to land a Lachie Neale type in the off season and we'd almost definitely be in the top 8 right now.
