AFL 2019 - Grand Final

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
594
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Richmond when they won were clearly the form team of that finals series. However I don't think GWS are any more in form than Richmond are this year. You could make a case for both of them.
 

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iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
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So you are agreeing with my point on not writing off the giants then?

Not sure what you are trying to argue here mate but its falling directly in line with my initial point after you were writing off the giants...
No - you don't understand - you can't say the Giants will win because all the form teams have won in 2017 and 2016 because BEFORE THE EVENT in 2017 you could have argued that it was Adelaide that was the form team of the finals...and they lost!
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
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Richmond when they won were clearly the form team of that finals series. However I don't think GWS are any more in form than Richmond are this year. You could make a case for both of them.
Clearly the form side when Adelaide had flogged both GWS and Geelong to get to the Grand Final and went in as the hottest faves for many years? - some solid revisionist history being written here
 

freo_leo29

Premiership Player
Oct 20, 2010
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No - you don't understand - you can't say the Giants will win because all the form teams have won in 2017 and 2016 because BEFORE THE EVENT in 2017 you could have argued that it was Adelaide that was the form team of the finals...and they lost!
I never dealt in absolutes, you were the one dealing in absolutes saying that GWS wouldn't win due to their home and away form.

I said don't write them off for their form during the year but definitely stated it could go either way.
 

iluvparis

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 1, 2005
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I never dealt in absolutes, you were the one dealing in absolutes saying that GWS wouldn't win due to their home and away form.

I said don't write them off for their form during the year but definitely stated it could go either way.
Except the absolutes about the 'form' finals team winning in 2016 and 2017 right?
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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It's not a trend though. Richmond turned out to be the form team after the grand final but id assume the grand final winner was the form team every year if you include the GF. It's not a trend before then though
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
594
311
AFL Club
Fremantle
Clearly the form side when Adelaide had flogged both GWS and Geelong to get to the Grand Final and went in as the hottest faves for many years? - some solid revisionist history being written here
Thats fair. Both teams fairly red hot. Richmond with home ground advantage..

What I'm mainly saying is this year doesn't have that same feel. Tigers as much in form as GWS if not more. If GWS lose to Pies, Richmond would be the "in form" team.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,677
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Hawthorn
Richmond when they won were clearly the form team of that finals series. However I don't think GWS are any more in form than Richmond are this year. You could make a case for both of them.
It's tricky because against Coll Whitfield and Greene were missing. It was also wet and when it dried up Coll came storming home. Could easily of lost. Against Bris they jumped them and then got reeled back in. Could easily of lost. Smashed WB who had been in terrific form.

Rich were in trouble against Geel but in the end won by 3 goals. Thrashed Bris away (good form reference with how GWS went). Looks like Rich profile better here than GWS. If you like GWS then the half time line is probably the go. If Rich are up at half time then I can't see GWS storming home.

Interestingly between them they have covered the line in all 5 finals games.
 

benji21

Team Captain
Apr 2, 2016
594
311
AFL Club
Fremantle
It's tricky because against Coll Whitfield and Greene were missing. It was also wet and when it dried up Coll came storming home. Could easily of lost. Against Bris they jumped them and then got reeled back in. Could easily of lost. Smashed WB who had been in terrific form.

Rich were in trouble against Geel but in the end won by 3 goals. Thrashed Bris away (good form reference with how GWS went). Looks like Rich profile better here than GWS. If you like GWS then the half time line is probably the go. If Rich are up at half time then I can't see GWS storming home.

Interestingly between them they have covered the line in all 5 finals games.
The rain was a big one.
I can't remember who said it, but GWS are often mistaken as liking the big grounds to run and carry, when in fact they are a stoppage team and like that style of play. The rain may have made GWS look better than what they are as it suited them.
 

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Browney2006

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2006
3,348
373
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Essendon
SGM’s require a very specific algorithm that spits out the odds. Throwing another huge leg like a best on ground into the engine isn’t easy. Would take bookies a while to accurately price all the markets up and get them right in the system. I highly doubt they will do this for a one off game.
 

NonPhixion

Outlaw Immortalz
Mar 27, 2018
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It's tricky because against Coll Whitfield and Greene were missing. It was also wet and when it dried up Coll came storming home. Could easily of lost. Against Bris they jumped them and then got reeled back in. Could easily of lost. Smashed WB who had been in terrific form.

Rich were in trouble against Geel but in the end won by 3 goals. Thrashed Bris away (good form reference with how GWS went). Looks like Rich profile better here than GWS. If you like GWS then the half time line is probably the go. If Rich are up at half time then I can't see GWS storming home.

Interestingly between them they have covered the line in all 5 finals games.
I’m not sure that I subscribe to the theory that wet conditions suit GWS. I actually think the opposite is true. Sure, Collingwood came back in the last quarter, but I don’t think that had anything to do with the weather drying up, was more just desperation stakes for Collingwood. GWS are obviously a great stoppage side, but they have 3 big targets up forward and have very good ball-use, which is more suited to dry weather. If anything rain would much suit Richmond imo, but that’s irrelevant as it won’t tomorrow.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,357
3,604
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Richmond beat an up-and-down Geelong, and even then, they had to fight back from a half-time deficit.

And they smashed a hapless Brisbane in one of the worst-officiated game of football I have ever watched.

That's their 'form line' over the past month.

Meanwhile GWS smashed an in-form Dogs, just got over the line against Brisbane, and belted Collingwood for three quarters.

Personally I like GWS' form line better but by this stage I am biased, I'm on the Big Big Sound wagon like you wouldn't believe.

So much so I have had to reel myself in a bit. Was going to put 20 units on this game, that's ho2 confident I am of the Giants.

Then I realised, 20U on one match basically defeats the purpose of having a bankroll management system in place to begin with.

So I'll calm my farm a little bit and keep it to 10U, tops. Plus a couple of cheeky bonus bets.

I fear that I have lost all objectivity, I just can't see how GWS are $3+ outsiders, I just don't see it, maybe I've gone mad.
 

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,357
3,604
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Final bets are on. Didn't go overboard, even though I still think GWS are crazy overs.

Kelly AGS @ $2.5 and 2+ goals @ $10 are my favourite bets.
Taranto to get 30+ @ $2.40 looks good as well.
Cameron 3+ goals @ 2.5, 4+ goals @ $5 too good to pass up on.

Put a few small multis on with those.
And a few free bets on GWS to win big.

Really was tempted to load up on GWS though.
Hopefully by this time tomorrow I'm not regretting being 'sensible'.

Oh well, it's all just a bit of fun anyway. Good luck to everybody tomorrow.
Hopefully the Big Big Sound can bring their A-game.
 

Lama94

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 21, 2013
6,755
14,311
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Gone Zac Williams as my smokey for the Norm Smith

And a stupid amount of silly same game multis

My fav: @85
Finlayson 2+
Daniels ATG
Greene ATG
Dusty ATG
Castagna ATG
Williams 20+
Greene 25+
Prestia 25+
 

Ohh Ok

Team Captain
Jul 31, 2018
548
583
AFL Club
Adelaide
So what I’ve gotten from this thread is that the team in the best form will win?!

I grabbed Houli Under 27.5 yesterday but think those odds at a reasonable price are long gone. I believe he cops a tag today, GWS have been tagging an opposition outside player all finals series. I
 

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