AFL 2019 - Grand Final
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iluvparis
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No - you don't understand - you can't say the Giants will win because all the form teams have won in 2017 and 2016 because BEFORE THE EVENT in 2017 you could have argued that it was Adelaide that was the form team of the finals...and they lost!
iluvparis
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Clearly the form side when Adelaide had flogged both GWS and Geelong to get to the Grand Final and went in as the hottest faves for many years? - some solid revisionist history being written here
I never dealt in absolutes, you were the one dealing in absolutes saying that GWS wouldn't win due to their home and away form.
I said don't write them off for their form during the year but definitely stated it could go either way.
iluvparis
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Except the absolutes about the 'form' finals team winning in 2016 and 2017 right?
Pointing out a trend = absolutes?
Sorry for bringing a different opinion to the thread...
It's not a trend though. Richmond turned out to be the form team after the grand final but id assume the grand final winner was the form team every year if you include the GF. It's not a trend before then though
Thats fair. Both teams fairly red hot. Richmond with home ground advantage..
What I'm mainly saying is this year doesn't have that same feel. Tigers as much in form as GWS if not more. If GWS lose to Pies, Richmond would be the "in form" team.
It's tricky because against Coll Whitfield and Greene were missing. It was also wet and when it dried up Coll came storming home. Could easily of lost. Against Bris they jumped them and then got reeled back in. Could easily of lost. Smashed WB who had been in terrific form.
Rich were in trouble against Geel but in the end won by 3 goals. Thrashed Bris away (good form reference with how GWS went). Looks like Rich profile better here than GWS. If you like GWS then the half time line is probably the go. If Rich are up at half time then I can't see GWS storming home.
Interestingly between them they have covered the line in all 5 finals games.
The rain was a big one.
I can't remember who said it, but GWS are often mistaken as liking the big grounds to run and carry, when in fact they are a stoppage team and like that style of play. The rain may have made GWS look better than what they are as it suited them.
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so no norm smith selection for the same game multi?
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SGM’s require a very specific algorithm that spits out the odds. Throwing another huge leg like a best on ground into the engine isn’t easy. Would take bookies a while to accurately price all the markets up and get them right in the system. I highly doubt they will do this for a one off game.
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I’m not sure that I subscribe to the theory that wet conditions suit GWS. I actually think the opposite is true. Sure, Collingwood came back in the last quarter, but I don’t think that had anything to do with the weather drying up, was more just desperation stakes for Collingwood. GWS are obviously a great stoppage side, but they have 3 big targets up forward and have very good ball-use, which is more suited to dry weather. If anything rain would much suit Richmond imo, but that’s irrelevant as it won’t tomorrow.
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Richmond beat an up-and-down Geelong, and even then, they had to fight back from a half-time deficit.
And they smashed a hapless Brisbane in one of the worst-officiated game of football I have ever watched.
That's their 'form line' over the past month.
Meanwhile GWS smashed an in-form Dogs, just got over the line against Brisbane, and belted Collingwood for three quarters.
Personally I like GWS' form line better but by this stage I am biased, I'm on the Big Big Sound wagon like you wouldn't believe.
So much so I have had to reel myself in a bit. Was going to put 20 units on this game, that's ho2 confident I am of the Giants.
Then I realised, 20U on one match basically defeats the purpose of having a bankroll management system in place to begin with.
So I'll calm my farm a little bit and keep it to 10U, tops. Plus a couple of cheeky bonus bets.
I fear that I have lost all objectivity, I just can't see how GWS are $3+ outsiders, I just don't see it, maybe I've gone mad.
And they smashed a hapless Brisbane in one of the worst-officiated game of football I have ever watched.
That's their 'form line' over the past month.
Meanwhile GWS smashed an in-form Dogs, just got over the line against Brisbane, and belted Collingwood for three quarters.
Personally I like GWS' form line better but by this stage I am biased, I'm on the Big Big Sound wagon like you wouldn't believe.
So much so I have had to reel myself in a bit. Was going to put 20 units on this game, that's ho2 confident I am of the Giants.
Then I realised, 20U on one match basically defeats the purpose of having a bankroll management system in place to begin with.
So I'll calm my farm a little bit and keep it to 10U, tops. Plus a couple of cheeky bonus bets.
I fear that I have lost all objectivity, I just can't see how GWS are $3+ outsiders, I just don't see it, maybe I've gone mad.
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Final bets are on. Didn't go overboard, even though I still think GWS are crazy overs.
Kelly AGS @ $2.5 and 2+ goals @ $10 are my favourite bets.
Taranto to get 30+ @ $2.40 looks good as well.
Cameron 3+ goals @ 2.5, 4+ goals @ $5 too good to pass up on.
Put a few small multis on with those.
And a few free bets on GWS to win big.
Really was tempted to load up on GWS though.
Hopefully by this time tomorrow I'm not regretting being 'sensible'.
Oh well, it's all just a bit of fun anyway. Good luck to everybody tomorrow.
Hopefully the Big Big Sound can bring their A-game.
Kelly AGS @ $2.5 and 2+ goals @ $10 are my favourite bets.
Taranto to get 30+ @ $2.40 looks good as well.
Cameron 3+ goals @ 2.5, 4+ goals @ $5 too good to pass up on.
Put a few small multis on with those.
And a few free bets on GWS to win big.
Really was tempted to load up on GWS though.
Hopefully by this time tomorrow I'm not regretting being 'sensible'.
Oh well, it's all just a bit of fun anyway. Good luck to everybody tomorrow.
Hopefully the Big Big Sound can bring their A-game.
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Hellboy101
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SGM 1: Tigers, over and Rioli AGS @3.8
SGM 2: Tigers, over, Whitfield 25+, Finlayson AGS, Rioli 2+ goals@ 19
Rioli and Castagna my two plays for NS
SGM 2: Tigers, over, Whitfield 25+, Finlayson AGS, Rioli 2+ goals@ 19
Rioli and Castagna my two plays for NS
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Gone Zac Williams as my smokey for the Norm Smith
And a stupid amount of silly same game multis
My fav: @85
Finlayson 2+
Daniels ATG
Greene ATG
Dusty ATG
Castagna ATG
Williams 20+
Greene 25+
Prestia 25+
And a stupid amount of silly same game multis
My fav: @85
Finlayson 2+
Daniels ATG
Greene ATG
Dusty ATG
Castagna ATG
Williams 20+
Greene 25+
Prestia 25+
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Tigers -17.5 looks the play
Can’t see GWS containing Lynch and just think GWS get a bit of stage fright on the big stage
Can’t see GWS containing Lynch and just think GWS get a bit of stage fright on the big stage
Place pays out if the player kicks one of the first 3 goals for the match.
X_box_X
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Brodie Smith at $9.50 for the longest kick
GWS under 39.5, Finlayson, Kelly, Williams the medal.
So what I’ve gotten from this thread is that the team in the best form will win?!
I grabbed Houli Under 27.5 yesterday but think those odds at a reasonable price are long gone. I believe he cops a tag today, GWS have been tagging an opposition outside player all finals series. I
I grabbed Houli Under 27.5 yesterday but think those odds at a reasonable price are long gone. I believe he cops a tag today, GWS have been tagging an opposition outside player all finals series. I
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