Prediction 2019 "Hypothetical Trade, FA, random player you wish we could get" thread..

[Rioli magic]

I have raided the Sier discussion quite a number of times... If there was a mid season trade period as is being mooted, then we surely would have gone hard at him... He is a Josh Kenndy absolute clone, I would go as far as offering him a grandfather deal, 600k over 4 seasons, by the end of that contact he'd be worth 1.2 a season, deadset star.

Would be worth 1.2 million a season in 4 years time? Highly unlikely.

And you would pay double that (2.4 million over 4 years) to secure him in the interim.

Assuming that next contract was 4 years - 1.2 x 4 = 4.8 million
+
600 x 4 to get him = 2.4

7.2 over 8 years.

Target Sier from Collingwood with a plan for 8 years @ 900k per year....

Confident! Not sure that’s the best list management strategy...

Don’t get me wrong I like the kid and would love to get him at Hawthorn, but not as confident he will end up in the top 1% of players across the league...

 

[Topiary]

Its pretty crazy looking at Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood, GWS lists. All have 30-35 genuine AFL level players on their lists this season. In specific Collingwood has about 35, plus some young guns who've yet to debut.

Yes. We have an enormous amount of work to do. The Club, GW knows it.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Sier commented that he wants to stay at Pies.

I know a lot of comments are fluff, but you'd imagine he'll stay

Seems a bit odd him wanting to stay TBH, he either thinks that by biding his time he will get his reward at some stage or he sees our club and the stage were at and assumes we are going to struggle for a while. If that's his thinking than Clarko needs to convince him that were not as far off as alot of people think and by making a few good decisions and regaining Mitchell next year we will be in a good spot to challenge sooner rather than later.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think there's one thing to get straight and it's that no club on that list save for GWS actually have the depth that you're touting, the other teams just have really well drilled players and a steady system. Collingwood have a patchwork defense that falls to bits if they lose any players, Geelong haven't been troubled by injury all year and Richmond have a lot of half decent players that play with a truckload of confidence.

They have solid midfield depth, sure, but that's about it and it's about what we don't have.

Pies have lost to injury: Eliot, Wells, Adams, Beams, and defenders in Dunn, Kelly, Langdon.

I think they miss Dunn who was excellent before injury, but Roughead has proven a strong replacement. They also have Goldsack, and Landgdon is obviously best 22.

They could play Quaynor, who has huge expectations.

Aish, Brown, Greenwood, Daicos, Crisp, Phillips, Wills, are on the fringe.

Their depth is incredible.

 

[Bugs1977]

Sier commented that he wants to stay at Pies.

I know a lot of comments are fluff, but you'd imagine he'll stay

Some fluff pieces for your reading pleasure:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...n/news-story/3fdeb14c07acb7c248e236402258f87f

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/s...g/news-story/f671a5e791668b4215e5496f8e98711d

 

[Rioli magic]

Seems a bit odd him wanting to stay TBH, he either thinks that by biding his time he will get his reward at some stage or he sees our club and the stage were at and assumes we are going to struggle for a while. If that's his thinking than Clarko needs to convince him that were not as far off as alot of people think and by making a few good decisions and regaining Mitchell next year we will be in a good spot to challenge sooner rather than later.

It’s got nothing to do with Hawthorn, we’re just one of seventeen other clubs.

 

[MrPremiership]

Seems a bit odd him wanting to stay TBH, he either thinks that by biding his time he will get his reward at some stage or he sees our club and the stage were at and assumes we are going to struggle for a while. If that's his thinking than Clarko needs to convince him that were not as far off as alot of people think and by making a few good decisions and regaining Mitchell next year we will be in a good spot to challenge sooner rather than later.

similar to Cousins wanting to stay last year despite Sydney's interest

 

[KermitJagger]

Pies have lost to injury: Eliot, Wells, Adams, Beams, and defenders in Dunn, Kelly, Langdon.

I think they miss Dunn who was excellent before injury, but Roughead has proven a strong replacement. They also have Goldsack, and Landgdon is obviously best 22.

They could play Quaynor, who has huge expectations.

Aish, Brown, Greenwood, Daicos, Crisp, Phillips, Wills, are on the fringe.

Their depth is incredible.

Lynden Dunn and Tyson Goldsack? Okay, sorry - clearly their depth is fantastic.

Don't get fooled about their purported depth just because they're playing well now, they had most of those players back in 2016 + 2017 when they were awful.

Form does a lot to make a team look like it's performing better than it really is.

 

[4THAWN]

I think there's one thing to get straight and it's that no club on that list save for GWS actually have the depth that you're touting, the other teams just have really well drilled players and a steady system. Collingwood have a patchwork defense that falls to bits if they lose any players, Geelong haven't been troubled by injury all year and Richmond have a lot of half decent players that play with a truckload of confidence.

They have solid midfield depth, sure, but that's about it and it's about what we don't have.

I rate the pies defense pretty highly. Darcy Moore, Tom Langdon, Jeremy Howe, Jordan Roughhead, James Aish, Jack Crisp could seriously be the best back 6 in the league. Put Maynard on the bench. Then for "depth/non-22 players" you've still got Scharenberg, Dunn, Goldsack out of best 22.

Greenwood, Pendles, Mayne and Phillips are all versatile players who can play down back if needed.

Theres also a few lesser known players they could use to fill gaps if they have a horrible injury run, but unlikely they'll be needed with so much depth down back.

 

[4THAWN]

Lynden Dunn and Tyson Goldsack? Okay, sorry - clearly their depth is fantastic.

Don't get fooled about their purported depth just because they're playing well now, they had most of those players back in 2016 + 2017 when they were awful.

Form does a lot to make a team look like it's performing better than it really is.

Who would you rather playing for your team. Tyson Goldsack or Kaiden Brand?

 

[Noel Gallagher]

Several vic clubs chasing Alex Keath from the Crows. 197cm KPD number one in comp for contested marks. I really really hope we are in the hunt, has really stepped up this year after Doedee went down

 

[Luv_our_club]

Lynden Dunn and Tyson Goldsack? Okay, sorry - clearly their depth is fantastic.

Don't get fooled about their purported depth just because they're playing well now, they had most of those players back in 2016 + 2017 when they were awful.

Form does a lot to make a team look like it's performing better than it really is.

I agree team form does a lot to make players look better.

But their defence has been ravaged by injury and is still sound. If Dunn and Goldsack were fit, would they even get their places back? Dunn was huge before injury - i stand by that.

Adams, Eliot and Langdon are best 18, as are Wells and Beams if they make it back (doubtful)

Ried is almost an optional player, Sier is optional: they play if they are in form.

Playing Cox is a question they have the luxury to mull over.

Sharenburg still to come back and make the team. Crocker and Murray can't crack the team.

 

[Bugs1977]

Lynden Dunn and Tyson Goldsack? Okay, sorry - clearly their depth is fantastic.

Don't get fooled about their purported depth just because they're playing well now, they had most of those players back in 2016 + 2017 when they were awful.

Form does a lot to make a team look like it's performing better than it really is.

Form and good health!

 

[Bugs1977]

Several vic clubs chasing Alex Keath from the Crows. 197cm KPD number one in comp for contested marks. I really really hope we are in the hunt, has really stepped up this year after Doedee went down

FWIW he'll be 28 at the start of next season

 

[Noel Gallagher]

FWIW he'll be 28 at the start of next season

I reckon that’s perfect. Takes over from Frawley and works alongside a developing Kositski. Make it happen GW!

 

[Rioli magic]

FWIW he'll be 28 at the start of next season

Late starter though... doesn’t have the same miles in the legs as a typical 28 y/o AFL player.

 

[Changa10]

I'm thinking Hugh Dixon from Freo. Tasy boy that supported Hawthorn, only 20 and is a 196cm key forward that finds himself behind Hogan, McCarthy, Taberner, and Lobb.


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Have mentioned Hugh on here before, and there has been some talk of him needing to get out of WA for various reasons. Four Melbourne Clubs have shown interest. However, he was down here last week and there didn't seem to be any real developments at this stage as to whether he would look at leaving or stick it out. Seems to be a bit of a moving beast, as he just needs to settle in with the right crowd!

Has been battling an injury but should be back playing at Peel this week.

 

[Dipper]

On the Pies board they're worried that the signing of Beams will lead to them losing Sier due to salary cap pressure.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[tige19]

Reckon this is a bit over the top. He's a good player, good size and would help us immensely but he's not a $1.2 a season prospect at any level or by any stretch of the imagination. He's a bloke who can play one role well, isn't overly versatile and averages 25 touches in the VFL. Zero evidence he offers anything more than Howe to be fair.

For perspective, Tom Mitchell was getting 60 touches, averaging 30+ and kicking multiple goals in the NEAFL.

Maybe 1.2m is a stretch but with salary increases and natural progression he turns into a regular 28-30 possession contested beast then you would think he would command huge money once fully matured... Think Cripps, Sier isnt that level but a mature Sier probably isnt that far off.. He is an exciting prospect and unlike anyone we have on our list (6ft3 90kg monster).

 

[Bugs1977]

On the Pies board they're worried that the signing of Beams will lead to them losing Sier due to salary cap pressure.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

And so they should be

 

[Hawk_francais]

On the Pies board they're worried that the signing of Beams will lead to them losing Sier due to salary cap pressure.

On SM-J330G using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't know why the fans are worried. It gives them every hope of winning the flag this year. They needed to improve fast, and he's a gun player with experience in september.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

It’s amazing Box Hill won the flag last year considering Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong have this amazing depth! Geez those Box Hill ring ins must be something special.

 

[NICE1]

It’s amazing Box Hill won the flag last year considering Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong have this amazing depth! Geez those Box Hill ring ins must be something special.

That is a really ignorant comment. Do a comparison based on AFL listed players.

 

[OnceKicked50]

He's hard not to be excited about when you see him. Different player to De Goey.

He just has craft, and really strong hands. He does a lot of the magic stuff that we're missing in the team at the moment, watch out when he has the fitness to do it regularly.

I think he might make a player mate, but he is a long way off it at present. Physically, he hasn't really cracked in all that much at Box Hill and his defensive work is very minimal.

This isn't a knock as he is a young kid in his first year, but I'm just mindful many on here, not saying it's you dude, see a really strong mark in a pre-season game and then build a player up above what's realistic.

We all loved Howe in his first year, Morison last year and countless other young blokes that never made the grade, Hanrahan had wraps from many including myself.

He has talent, but he has work to do. Jackson Ross, obviously a season advanced in development, is doing all the right things at VFL level and is a long way ahead of Walker.

 

[Rioli magic]

On a somewhat related note -

Collingwood have done a great job in “rebuilding on the run” which is what we are trying to do. Everyone talks about how good Geelong have done this, well Collingwood have done it better!

Both played off in the 2011 grand final - Collingwood got back there last year, Geelong haven’t been back. I’m not sure Collingwood get their due credit for this.

What’s interesting is if you look at how they rebuilt the list, it is not that impressive (in the sense they didn’t nail every off season for the 7 years in between).

Basically two or three off seasons with astute trading (Treloar, Adams, Howe, Crisp, Varcoe, Greenwood, Hosking-Elliot), one absolute nailed 1st round selection (Grundy), (+ Stephenson last year) and some solid players picked up later in the draft (Langdon, Maynard, Philips)

The only players who played in both 2011 GF and 2018 GF were Pendlebury and Sidebottom.

I think it shows (again) that you don’t need a plethora of 1st round picks (Collingwood’s 1st rounders were actually quite poor through this period, decent prospects but haven’t worked out and weren’t part of the GF), and that you can build a premiership capable list/depth by getting things right for 2-3 years (essentially what we are aiming to do now).

Everyone talks about following the Geelong model but I think Collingwood have also shown how to go about it - we could learn a lot from their strategy.

What it probably also shows is that the intangibles (culture, values, motivation etc) along with coaching and fitness also play a huge role which is often overlooked when lists are analyzed (purely on talent). We know we can get these right, just need to make smart recruiting decisions over the next two offseasons with our full range of picks available as we head into it.