Opinion 2019 Ladder Prediction

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6285sutto

6285sutto

Debutant
May 22, 2012
135
143
AFL Club
West Coast
The 2019 season is still a long way away however just wondering what everyone is thinking about the final ladder placement (excluding the final series). I've posted mine below.
  1. West Coast
  2. Richmond
  3. Collingwood
  4. Melbourne
  5. Essendon
  6. Hawthorn
  7. Adelaide
  8. North Melbourne
  9. Greater Western Sydney
  10. Sydney
  11. Port Adelaide
  12. Fremantle
  13. Geelong
  14. Brisbane
  15. Western Bulldogs
  16. St Kilda
  17. Carlton
  18. Gold Coast Suns
Comments - For me who makes the top 4 is pretty straight forward although realistically I think Eagles may fall to 3rd while collingwood jump to first. I feel like Geelong will fall heavily(even with Kelly), while Essendon will win a couple of big games they should have won this year. Hawthorn could do anything. Adelaide is a smoky to jump into the 8 but could easily swap places with Port. North to land somewhere in the 5-8 range. Sydney and GWS to drop out of the 8. Brisbane to improve significantly yet still fall well short of the 8. The dogs will struggle.
 

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Rowan18 said:
I think Adelaide will be bolters provided they get their injury issues sorted. Them and Richmond are probably the only two teams who will be able to imitate our gane plan successfully as they have good talls.
Click to expand...

What about Hawthorn ? We have practically modelled our game plan on theirs while they also have a number of quality talls. Feel like they are one to watch out for this year.
 
  1. Richmond
  2. West Coast
  3. Melbourne
  4. Essendon
  5. Greater Western Sydney
  6. Collingwood
  7. Hawthorn
  8. Adelaide
  9. North Melbourne
  10. Sydney
  11. Geelong
  12. Port Adelaide
  13. Fremantle
  14. Brisbane
  15. Western Bulldogs
  16. St Kilda
  17. Carlton
  18. Gold Coast Suns
 
The formula for us is straightforward. Win 10 of 12 games at home, plus 6 of 10 on the road.

Where do the six away wins come from?

Brisbane (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
Geelong (Their shithole)
St Kilda (Marvel - whatever)
Adelaide (AO)
Sydney (SCG)
Hawthorn (MCG)
Melbourne (Darwin)
Carlton (Marvel)
Richmond (MCG)

Road wins will be harder to come by.
 
6285sutto said:
What about Hawthorn ? We have practically modelled our game plan on theirs while they also have a number of quality talls. Feel like they are one to watch out for this year.
Click to expand...

I reckon we will beat Collingwood in the GF 79 to 74 with Sheed kicking the winning goal
 
Candiru said:
The formula for us is straightforward. Win 10 of 12 games at home, plus 6 of 10 on the road.

Where do the six away wins come from?

Brisbane (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
Geelong (Their shithole)
St Kilda (Marvel - whatever)
Adelaide (AO)
Sydney (SCG)
Hawthorn (MCG)
Melbourne (Darwin)
Carlton (Marvel)
Richmond (MCG)

Road wins will be harder to come by.
Click to expand...
Brisbane (W)
Geelong (W)
St. Kilda (W)
Sydney (W finally)
Carlton (W)
Adelaide (50/50)
 
1. Bitchmen Tigers
2. Best Coast Premiers
3. Melbourne semens
4. Collywobble Fagpies
5. Methedon Bombers
6. Hawthorn-in-my-ass Hawks
7. Adelame Crows
8. Port Adelame-r Power
9. North Melbourne Kangalosers
10. Buddy Swans
11. Geelongs Kittens
12. Brisbane Jarryd Lyons
13. GWS Giant losers of the trade period
14. St. Killed their chances with bad trades Saints
15. Carlton Who's?
16. Western Bullfrogs
17. Gold Coast Crumbs

Honorable Mention: Freo Shockers, to finally be relegated to the Womens WAFL reserves.
 
6285sutto said:
What about Hawthorn ? We have practically modelled our game plan on theirs while they also have a number of quality talls. Feel like they are one to watch out for this year.
Click to expand...
Building a solid team but still hard to see them going all the way without an elite KPF. Gunston and Breust are good but with Roughead slowly dropping off I think they're up against it with teams like us, rich, melb etc.
 
Candiru said:
The formula for us is straightforward. Win 10 of 12 games at home, plus 6 of 10 on the road.

Where do the six away wins come from?

Brisbane (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
Geelong (Their shithole)
St Kilda (Marvel - whatever)
Adelaide (AO)
Sydney (SCG)
Hawthorn (MCG)
Melbourne (Darwin)
Carlton (Marvel)
Richmond (MCG)

Road wins will be harder to come by.
Click to expand...

Maybe I'm a little confident, but from my end:
  • Brisbane - 80% - We've won our last 8 against them, 5 of which were away and just did it comfortably without JK 2 months ago, despite having already locked in top 2.
  • Collingwood - 60% - We've shown we have Collingwood's match 3 times this year, twice at the G. Twice also with a man down, and several AA quality players missing. It took us 20 years to beat them once at the G, and we did it twice, no reason we can't go over there and do it again.
  • Geelong - 50% - I expect to drop off next year, and while we haven't beaten them at KP since 2006, we've only played them 5 times, 3 of those being in non finals years, and one of them being in a geelong flag year. We're due a win there and we've shown this year we're breaking hoodoos.
  • StK - 95% - as close to a sure thing away win as you can get.
  • Sydney - 50% - Same deal as Geelong, I expect them to drop off a bit, and while we haven't won at the SCG in years, we've only played them there 3 times since 2010.
  • Adelaide - 50% - We're 2 - 2 against them at adelaide oval, and if not for a last minute choke even without our forwardline we would be 3 - 1, genuine 50/50 match.
  • Hawthorn - 50% - We showed we could beat them in Melbourne this year despite them being a top 4 side, sure it was at Marvel and not the G, but we were also rubbish at the MCG up until this year. Good chance to break this hoodoo as well.
  • Melbourne - 70% - They were lucky to play us in perth in consecutive years while we were missing several key players, which gave them false hope going into the PF. Losses like that on the big stage can be psychologically damaging as we know all too well, and they won't have any home advantage playing us in the NT. We probably also play better in the heat than they do, good odds for a win here.
  • Carlton - 95% - Same as StK.
  • Richmond - 50% - I don't buy into their whole dominant aura like some. I think we match up well on them as we showed in round 9 this year and we've learnt how to play the G well. We even took it up to them in 2017 when we were rubbish and they were premiers, finishing with 4 more scoring shots but failing to convert. Would've been 4 from our last 4 against them if not for that mishap and we beat them comfortably at the G in 2015 when they were also up and about.
That right there puts us at about 6.5 away wins, which leaves a little bit of margin for error. Considering this year we beat Bris, Carl, Coll x 2, GWS, Haw, Port, WB away, there's no reason we can't jag 6 wins from the above games, especially considering all 3 of our away losses this year came when we had big injury lists and were missing key players. In fact there's no reason we can't improve on this year and boost our tally from 16 to 18 or so wins if we can get a good run with injurys like Richmond had this year.
 

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6285sutto said:
What about Hawthorn ? We have practically modelled our game plan on theirs while they also have a number of quality talls. Feel like they are one to watch out for this year.
Click to expand...
Roughead is cooked and after vickery got peed off they have no second tall
 
  1. Richmond
  2. West Coast
  3. Melbourne
  4. Essendon
  5. Greater Western Sydney
  6. Collingwood
  7. Adelaide
  8. North Melbourne
  9. Sydney
  10. Geelong
  11. Fremantle
  12. Port Adelaide
  13. Brisbane
  14. Hawthorn
  15. Carlton
  16. Western Bulldogs
  17. St Kilda
  18. Gold Coast Suns
 
Yippy Yi Yeo said:
Building a solid team but still hard to see them going all the way without an elite KPF. Gunston and Breust are good but with Roughead slowly dropping off I think they're up against it with teams like us, rich, melb etc.
Click to expand...

Don't think they'll win the Grand Final (WCE have it in the bag) but they'll definitely be a threat throughout the season and in the finals.
 
Went through the entire ladder predictor process, cam out as such:

Richmond
West Coast
Adelaide
Essendon
Melbourne
Collingwood
GWS
North Melbourne
-------------------
Geelong
Sydney
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
St.Kilda
Bulldogs
Carlton
Gold Coast
 
kid_a said:
Went through the entire ladder predictor process, cam out as such:

Richmond
West Coast
Adelaide
Essendon
Melbourne
Collingwood
GWS
North Melbourne
-------------------
Geelong
Sydney
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
St.Kilda
Bulldogs
Carlton
Gold Coast
Click to expand...
Mostly agree although Fremantle and Hawthorn are a little low and North and Essendon are a little high.
 
My 2019 H & A Ladder prediction:
1. Adelaide Crows
2. WCE
3. Melbourne
4. Essendon
5. Richmond
6. Hawthorn
7. Sydney Swans
8. Collingwood
9. Fremantle
10. Port Adelaide
11. Brisbane Lions
12. GWS Giants
13. Geelong Cats
14. North Melbourne
15. St Kilda
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast Suns
 
Last edited:
One of the shue ins for bottom 4 always surprises. I think St Kilda will rise up to 9-12 territory again. They went 12-10 & 11-11 before this season's debacle so they aren't in Gold Coast or Carlton territory.
 
1. Richmond (16 home games is too big an advantage for them not to finish 1st)
2. West Coast
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Collingwood
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. GWS
9. Sydney
10. Hawthorn
11. North Melbourne
12. Brisbane
13. Port Adelaide
14. Fremantle
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Carlton
17. St. Kilda
18. Gold Coast
 
Are we really sure Adelaide will shoot straight back up? Jenkins looked bad last season and Eddie is almost cooked
 
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