2019 Ladder Predictions | Page 41 | BigFooty

2019 Ladder Predictions

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Macpotata, Aug 15, 2018.

  1. Egga

    Egga Premium Platinum

    North Melbourne
    Joined:
    Nov 09
    Posts:
    2,912
    Richmond
    Hawthorn
    West Coast
    Essendon
    Collingwood
    North Melbourne
    Geelong
    Sydney
    ------------
    Melbourne
    Adelaide
    GWS
    Port Adelaide
    Brisbane
    Bulldogs
    Freo
    St Kilda
    Carlton
    Gold Coast

    Rationale:

    upload_2018-12-1_13-52-16.png



    *I don't consider 'organic improvement' (or decline) as it very rarely actually eventuates as much or as quickly as expected (e.g. Hawks, Swans and/ or Cats were supposed to fall off the cliff last year, while Saints, Blues and Lions were apparently ready to make a charge). Every club has great yoof burning up the track. In this case I have made only one exception for Brisbane and raised them up a couple of spots based on the improvement they actually DEMONSTRATED in the second half of season 2018.

    Interested in other people's thoughts.....
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2018
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  2. Kimbo

    Kimbo Brownlow Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    Location:
    Denmark, WA
    Other Teams:
    Sturt, Liverpool
    I'd call it 'preferable' myself.

    ...because I don't give a shit about the Dees.

    So, how about those 2019 ladder predictions...? :drunk:
     
  3. Kimbo

    Kimbo Brownlow Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    Other Teams:
    Sturt, Liverpool
    It's so difficult to try and 'science' football.

    While there will be subjective assessments within categories, at least there is a sense of justification for why you've got teams where you have. Of course there will always be other factors (organic improvement or decline is too difficult to predict) that you could build into a model like this, but that's just adding more subjective assessment. Of course that's what this whole exercise is about, but once again, at least you've 'shown your workings'.

    'Fixture', not 'Draw'. ;)
     
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  4. Joao

    Joao Norm Smith Medallist

    Fremantle
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    Location:
    QLD
    Are you ratings from an algorithm and/or some data or just you plucking numbers out of thin air?
     
  5. Egga

    Egga Premium Platinum

    North Melbourne
    Joined:
    Nov 09
    Posts:
    2,912
    It's an algorithm:
    Draw: Number of games v top 4 and bottom 4 in 2019 compared to 2018
    Trade: Number of elite, A and B grade players traded in and traded out AND the number of close games the club had which might have been decided by the presence/ absence of these players
    Injury: I've just edited my original post to also account for injuries vs league average, which has shuffled the top 8 order a little
     
  6. THE_GUN

    THE_GUN Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Location:
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    Other Teams:
    Piss Off You Troll
    Richmond
    Melbourne
    West Coast
    GWS
    Essendon
    Collingwood
    Geelong
    Adelaide

    Sydney
    Port Adelaide
    Hawthorn
    Bulldogs
    Brisbane
    North Melbourne
    Fremantle
    StKilda
    Carlton
    Gold Coast
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2018
  7. Kimbo

    Kimbo Brownlow Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    Location:
    Denmark, WA
    Other Teams:
    Sturt, Liverpool
    NM?
     
  8. THE_GUN

    THE_GUN Brownlow Medallist

    Richmond
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    Other Teams:
    Piss Off You Troll
    Are they still in the league ??
    :p
     
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  9. Crowbots are dead

    Crowbots are dead Club Legend

    Adelaide
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    1. collingwood
    2. Richmond
    3. West coast
    4. Melbourne
    5. GWS
    6. Adelaide
    7. Essendon
    8. North Melbourne
    —————————
    9. Geelong
    10. Brisbane
    11. Sydney
    12. Hawthorn
    13. Port Adelaide
    14. Western bulldogs
    15. St Kilda
    16. Fremantle
    17. Carlton
    18. Gold Coast
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  10. Isaac Cumming No 1

    Isaac Cumming No 1 Premium Platinum

    GWS
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    :D So far on top he couldn't fit them in the window.
     
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  11. Joao

    Joao Norm Smith Medallist

    Fremantle
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    How do you define "A" and "B" grade players though?
     

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  12. darcytiger

    darcytiger Club Legend

    Richmond
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    Melbourne
    Something against Ross Lyon?
     
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  13. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    If they played again I don’t think the margin would have been so big. Melbourne’s forward line and midfield is really good so it is quite rare for them to be kept quiet like that for a quarter.
     
  14. Rod Stroker

    Rod Stroker Brownlow Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    It was more than just one game. It was your biggest game of the year, and you got blown apart.
     
  15. Rod Stroker

    Rod Stroker Brownlow Medallist

    North Melbourne
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    Other Teams:
    Eagles (NFL), Suns (NBA)
    Daniher still isn't training, and yeah Shiel > Polec + Hall + Tyson
     
  16. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

    Melbourne
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    Location:
    The Corridor
    Other Teams:
    Dees
    Yeah, we had a bad one.

    That can happen to young teams interstate with 13 players under 100 games. Half of West Coast's team had played 150 games (11) compared to our 5.

    North's round 23 team that beat Sydney had 9 players under 100 games and just one under 50. They were on average 18 months older than our prelim team with 21 games more experienced.

    I think we're tracking nicely.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
  17. Antonio Conte

    Antonio Conte Draftee

    Adelaide
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    Other Teams:
    Real Madrid C.F.
    1. West Coast
    2. Richmond
    3. Geelong
    4. Essendon
    5. Collingwood
    6. Melbourne
    7. North Melbourne
    8. GWS
    9. Port Adelaide
    10. Fremantle
    11. Hawthorn
    12. Brisbane
    13. Sydney
    14. St Kilda
    15. Western Bulldogs
    16. Carlton
    17. Gold Coast
    18. Adelaide
     
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  18. Alwaysacrow

    Alwaysacrow Club Legend

    Adelaide
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    I hope so. Please finish above Carlton. In fact to every other team in the comp; please finish above Carlton.
     
  19. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Hall of Famer

    Adelaide
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    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    Other Teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Trollolol
     
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  20. JayJ20

    JayJ20 Norm Smith Medallist

    Essendon
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    Reality is that North had one of the easiest fixtures and Essendon had one of the most difficult, yet we finished only percentage below you. Same wins.

    North double ups:

    Sydney
    Bulldogs
    St Kilda
    Brisbane
    Gold Coast

    3 of the bottom 4 teams. No top 4 team

    Essendon double ups:

    Richmond
    Collingwood
    Hawthorn
    Port
    Fremantle

    3 of the top 4 teams. No bottom 4 team

    Not to mention that we played the likes of GWS and West Coast away while you played them both in Tassie.

    Not hard to see why Essendon is rated higher than North now that the fixture is likely to balance out.
     
  21. wazza03

    wazza03 Team Captain

    North Melbourne
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    Location:
    Melbourne
    Too much hype about Essendon who haven’t proven squat! December champions.
    North will finish higher than them like most years!


    On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
     
  22. Giant Pete

    Giant Pete Premiership Player

    GWS
    Joined:
    Jan 13
    Posts:
    3,583
    Essendon
    West Coast
    Richmond
    Melbourne
    Collingwood
    Geelong
    Adelaide
    GWS
    Sydney
    Port
    Hawthorn
    North
    Brisbane
    Bulldogs
    Saints
    Freo
    Carlton
    Gold Coast
     
  23. ep2018

    ep2018 Bigfooty Pessimist

    West Coast
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    24,382
    Honestly will lol if North win the flag after Gaff turned them down. He'd have missed two flags in two years.
     
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  24. Godzke

    Godzke Brownlow Medallist

    Essendon
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    Melbourne
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    Barcelona
    Yeah safe bet he won't have to worry about North winning a flag any time soon.

    On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
     
  25. ep2018

    ep2018 Bigfooty Pessimist

    West Coast
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    With the dogs and tigers winning it, and the eagles who won this year despite expected not to make finals, who's to say they cant?
     
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