Prediction 2019 Ladder Predictions + 2020 Ladder early Predictions ( Page 115+ )

[Strapping Young Lad]

"Woopdy do" is right (particularly as you can't refute the argument, smart tactic), no other team travelled less than Hawthorn this year, good reason to be ecstatic.
Again you refused to acknowledge the other point I made about interstate teams.
Have you tried "Woopdy do?" It seems to make a compelling case.



Geelong were OK, but there were 7 teams better, Sydney were OK, but there were 6 teams better. Wins against Essendon were either straight forward, or incredibly difficult depending on when you played them. Nobody is revising history, but there are better teams out there than those sides. 5 of them in fact (excluding Hawthorn), and you played none of them twice. Other teams played 2 or even 3 of those better sides twice.

Hawthorns wins alone don't relegate sides to "also-ran" status. Sydney and Geelong lost 7 games outside their Hawthorn games, Essendon lost 8. We're not dealing with 3 powerhouse sides. Simple middle of the road sides.



It sounds like that, if you refuse to read any of my points and just assume what you want.
My favourite part of this straw man comment, is that of the 3 sides you mentioned, you literally didn't play a single one of them twice. Had you played, even just one of them twice (or played more than 4 interstate games), I wouldn't be claiming you had an easy draw.

You didn't, the draw was easy.

More evidence below.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/saints-afl-fixture-list-schedule-draw-20180831-p500xd.html

My main confusion here with this exchange is, there is a clear argument to suggest that Hawthorn didn't use their easy draw to inflate their finishing position. Which suggests that a (likely) more difficult fixture in 2019 won't have much an affect on them.

There just isn't a credible argument that Hawthorn didn't have an easy draw.

I’ll keep this quick, without all the multi quotes.

Point 1: We didn’t play a bunch of interstate games because we finished 12th.

Point 2: We didn’t double up against the Premiers or runners up because we finished 12th.


Point 3: If Geelong don’t lose their two games to Hawthorn they finish 3rd.
Essendon would’ve been 6th.
If Hawthorn lose all of those games they don’t play finals, would that mean Geelong and Essendon don had easy draws because they doubled up against Hawthorn?


This is what you keep missing. You say Hawthorn had an easy draw because of the results of these games, whereas at the start of the year, every man and his dog had Geelong, Essendon and even St Kilda finishing above the 12th placed 2017 Hawthorn - all teams that Hawthorn played twice and defeated this year.

I’m not saying that Hawthorn had a hard draw, nor should they have as a 12th placed team, but to suggest they had an easy draw because they won a bunch of their double up games against teams that were more highly fancied us dumb.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I’ll keep this quick, without all the multi quotes.

Point 1: We didn’t play a bunch of interstate games because we finished 12th.

Point 2: We didn’t double up against the Premiers or runners up because we finished 12th.


Point 3: If Geelong don’t lose their two games to Hawthorn they finish 3rd.
Essendon would’ve been 6th.
If Hawthorn lose all of those games they don’t play finals, would that mean Geelong and Essendon don had easy draws because they doubled up against Hawthorn?


This is what you keep missing. You say Hawthorn had an easy draw because of the results of these games, whereas at the start of the year, every man and his dog had Geelong, Essendon and even St Kilda finishing above the 12th placed 2017 Hawthorn - all teams that Hawthorn played twice and defeated this year.

I’m not saying that Hawthorn had a hard draw, nor should they have as a 12th placed team, but to suggest they had an easy draw because they won a bunch of their double up games against teams that were more highly fancied us dumb.

It's a winning argument that there was no conspiracy to give the Hawks a hard draw. It can still fall that way because of luck though. That's where the debate is at cross purposes I think.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I’ll keep this quick, without all the multi quotes.

That's a shame, I ******* love multi quotes.

Point 1: We didn’t play a bunch of interstate games because we finished 12th.

Point 2: We didn’t double up against the Premiers or runners up because we finished 12th.

Correct. Why are you helping to prove my point that Hawthorn had an easy draw?

Point 3: If Geelong don’t lose their two games to Hawthorn they finish 3rd.
Essendon would’ve been 6th.
If Hawthorn lose all of those games they don’t play finals, would that mean Geelong and Essendon don had easy draws because they doubled up against Hawthorn?

You really only need to take into account the second game played though, taking into account the first time the 2 teams met is irrelevant. While I appreciate your high opinion of the Cats, we weren't that good this year. Essendon were either quite good, or ******* terrible, depending on which side of the Carlton game you got them. Sydney, meh. 5 teams better than those guys, Hawthorn played none of them.

This is what you keep missing. You say Hawthorn had an easy draw because of the results of these games, whereas at the start of the year, every man and his dog had Geelong, Essendon and even St Kilda finishing above the 12th placed 2017 Hawthorn - all teams that Hawthorn played twice and defeated this year.

I'm not missing that, It's 100% irrelevant. Perception doesn't make a draw more difficult, performance does. Geelong Essendon and St.Kilda just weren't that good, "every man and his dog" got them wrong.

I’m not saying that Hawthorn had a hard draw, nor should they have as a 12th placed team, but to suggest they had an easy draw because they won a bunch of their double up games against teams that were more highly fancied us dumb.

No, they had an easy draw because the teams they played twice were either terrible (St.Kilda and Brisbane) or Middle of the road (Geelong, Essendon and St.Kilda). The only thing I would consider "dumb" is suggesting a team had a more difficult draw because their opponents were "highly fancied," even though they weren't actually good.

Anyway, we're covering old ground now.

It's been fun. I find your level of bias very intriguing, so I'm sure something you dispute will pique my interest again.
Until next time.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

It's a winning argument that there was no conspiracy to give the Hawks a hard draw. It can still fall that way because of luck though. That's where the debate is at cross purposes I think.

I do love being long winded at times, but this sums it up well.

Hawthorn weren't given an easy draw deliberately. They ended up with an easy draw due to good fortune.

 

[Coaster2012]

Wishful thinking. We missed Viney in the H&A and would have finished top 4 if he'd played most games.

If they're still hungry their age profile suggests they'll only get better and better.

Also, they lost 5 games by 10 points or less this year and still won 14. That's unlikely to repeat itself.

So, in 19 of 22 games we either won or were within 10 points. We were not in 3 games of 22.

I'll be surprised if they're not top 2 in 2019. It will be some fall to not make the eight.

Every team loses a star or two during the season, if you are saying "only if we were 100% full strength we would have made top 4" then guess what? I guarantee you will have injuries next year too. It's called Footy. Eagles and Pies both had some big stars go down and look where they are. If it's going to take having all your players on the park to win a flag, you are never going to win one. And don't fall pray to the linear progression model, it almost never turns out this way. Would not be surprised if you slip down next year, miss finals, then bounce back up in 2020. That narrative is usually more common.

 

[Trav 20]

Every team loses a star or two during the season, if you are saying "only if we were 100% full strength we would have made top 4" then guess what? I guarantee you will have injuries next year too. It's called Footy. Eagles and Pies both had some big stars go down and look where they are. If it's going to take having all your players on the park to win a flag, you are never going to win one. And don't fall pray to the linear progression model, it almost never turns out this way. Would not be surprised if you slip down next year, miss finals, then bounce back up in 2020. That narrative is usually more common.

Of course every club has injuries, but many don't have them to one of their top 3 most important players, which Viney is.

Richmond won a flag because their key players always play.

I see no reason Melbourne will regress but can list plenty of reasons while they'll be better.

As with all things time will tell.

 

[Coaster2012]

Of course every club has injuries, but many don't have them to one of their top 3 most important players, which Viney is.

Richmond won a flag because their key players always play.

I see no reason Melbourne will regress but can list plenty of reasons while they'll be better.

As with all things time will tell.

WC lost their most important player in NN, and lost their most important midfielder in Gaff and lost one of their top 3 defenders in 1st week of finals.

GF this weekend.

It's not an excuse. 1 player in the midfield isn't the difference between making it and not. Premiership sides have systems.

 

[Trav 20]

WC lost their most important player in NN, and lost their most important midfielder in Gaff and lost one of their top 3 defenders in 1st week of finals.

GF this weekend.

It's not an excuse. 1 player in the midfield isn't the difference between making it and not. Premiership sides have systems.

You have a propensity to state the bleeding obvious. Well done.

 

[Coaster2012]

You have a propensity to state the bleeding obvious. Well done.

And yet, you can't seem to grasp it.

 

[the view]

I predict I like this ladder in 2019...

dam

 

[Xhoquelin]

Crows and one of Saints/Dogs will make it IMO. Dogs especially looked a lot better at the end of the season.

Going to be another tough race. You’d think Saints/Blues/Suns can only improve, Freo might struggle/stagnate if they lose Neale and can’t get Hogan although they are a lot more developed than the Blues, Lions will keep taking more steps.

But anyway, ladder prediction has to wait until the draft finishes IMO or at least until the trade period is done. It’s all guessing regardless but at least when the draft is finished you can make educated guesses. If the dogs for some reason trade Bont they obviously would find it very hard to make finals

 

[Trav 20]

And yet, you can't seem to grasp it.

What's not to grasp.

Everyone gets injuries, but not always to their very best players and not always to multiple of their best half dozen.

It also depends when you get them. Eagles lose Gaff when they've cemented top 2. Not a bad time to lose him.

But yes, West Coast have covered their losses admirably. Is that what you wanted to hear ?

More of the obvious coming my way I assume.

 

[Macpotata]

That's a nice prediction if you want to be wrong. No way Geelong and port are top 2.

Who would have thought WCE, Collingwood and Hawthorn would be top 4 this year though.

That's the beauty of the competition and having a crack.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Crows and one of Saints/Dogs will make it IMO. Dogs especially looked a lot better at the end of the season.

Going to be another tough race. You’d think Saints/Blues/Suns can only improve, Freo might struggle/stagnate if they lose Neale and can’t get Hogan although they are a lot more developed than the Blues, Lions will keep taking more steps.

But anyway, ladder prediction has to wait until the draft finishes IMO or at least until the trade period is done. It’s all guessing regardless but at least when the draft is finished you can make educated guesses. If the dogs for some reason trade Bont they obviously would find it very hard to make finals

I get the Crows making finals.

I really struggle with the Bulldogs though. They showed better form only when finals were gone and their season done. Bob Murphy is publicly criticising Dalhaus, and that's not a good look in public. These things reflect on culture I think.

I seriously doubt they'll turn it around quickly to make finals, but they may not be the absolute rabble they were at the start of the season this year.

The Saints can play good footy at times, I could see them getting close to finals at best.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Crows and one of Saints/Dogs will make it IMO. Dogs especially looked a lot better at the end of the season.

Going to be another tough race. You’d think Saints/Blues/Suns can only improve, Freo might struggle/stagnate if they lose Neale and can’t get Hogan although they are a lot more developed than the Blues, Lions will keep taking more steps.

But anyway, ladder prediction has to wait until the draft finishes IMO or at least until the trade period is done. It’s all guessing regardless but at least when the draft is finished you can make educated guesses. If the dogs for some reason trade Bont they obviously would find it very hard to make finals

I don't think the draft, or the fixture, make that much difference. The 18 year old draftee isn't likely to have a big impact first year, and the fixture really only makes more than one game's difference around mid-table. Trades though, and free agency, can have a big impact on the following year.

That said, Adelaide definitely can get back up there. St Kilda I don't see a lot of reason for optimism in 2019, they can play well enough at times against the right sort of opponent, but getting regular wins might still be a struggle. Two good pick ups might change that.
Dogs, I don't know, I think they should be better but two years now they've been apparent under-performers, maybe that is really where they are.

No ladder yet from me.

 

[dropbear101]

hard to determine exact positions but I have put sections into order of about the same
Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

essedon, WCE, Sydney, north melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide

hawthorn, geelong, port, western bulldogs, fremantle

gold coast, carlton

 

[kranky al]

1) melbourne
2) collingwood
3) richmond
4) west coast
5) gws
6) brisbane
7) adelaide
8) port.

 

[jatz14]

Of course every club has injuries, but many don't have them to one of their top 3 most important players, which Viney is.

Richmond won a flag because their key players always play.

I see no reason Melbourne will regress but can list plenty of reasons while they'll be better.

As with all things time will tell.

Every year, teams with no reason to regress, regress.

 

[Lsta062]

Of course every club has injuries, but many don't have them to one of their top 3 most important players, which Viney is.

Richmond won a flag because their key players always play.

I see no reason Melbourne will regress but can list plenty of reasons while they'll be better.

As with all things time will tell.

Famous last words...
I mean, I don't think that Melbourne will regress, but those words right there are the type of things people bump 12 months later.

Reality is that there are so many reasons that any of the top 8 sides can regress. Injury is one that applies to every one of those sides. Other reasons are:

West Coast - Premiership hangover where the desire to win a Premiership and battle adversity is no longer there.
Collingwood - Close Grand Final loss and perhaps a tougher draw.
Richmond - 6-6-6 game style could see their small side and gameplan exposed.
Melbourne - The way they lost the PF could see them go back into their shells a little bit.
Hawthorn - A tougher draw and perhaps less confidence after losing finals in straight sets could see them slip down the ladder.
GWS - Being around the mark for so many year + players leaving yet again could see them tumble down.
Sydney - Being up for so long for no Premiership since 2012 + players leaving could see 2019 become the start of a reset
Geelong - Depth was exposed and being up for so long for no Premiership since 2011 could see their motivation drop.

Every side has a reason to regress. Whether they will or not is a different story.

 

[Tom_Thumb]

Fremantle wooden spoon.

I actually think if they get Hogan they will be top 8, if not then they will be pus.

 

[The Plowking]

Famous last words...
I mean, I don't think that Melbourne will regress, but those words right there are the type of things people bump 12 months later.

Reality is that there are so many reasons that any of the top 8 sides can regress. Injury is one that applies to every one of those sides. Other reasons are:

West Coast - Premiership hangover where the desire to win a Premiership and battle adversity is no longer there.
Collingwood - Close Grand Final loss and perhaps a tougher draw.
Richmond - 6-6-6 game style could see their small side and gameplan exposed.
Melbourne - The way they lost the PF could see them go back into their shells a little bit.
Hawthorn - A tougher draw and perhaps less confidence after losing finals in straight sets could see them slip down the ladder.
GWS - Being around the mark for so many year + players leaving yet again could see them tumble down.
Sydney - Being up for so long for no Premiership since 2012 + players leaving could see 2019 become the start of a reset
Geelong - Depth was exposed and being up for so long for no Premiership since 2011 could see their motivation drop.

Every side has a reason to regress. Whether they will or not is a different story.

Excellent post.
Personally with a harder draw I see Collingwood falling back a little.
Same with the Hawks.
Reckon we missed a little early window of opportunity there with this list. Momentum etc.
Cest la vie.

 

[tigertigertiger]

Eagles
Giants
Tigers (P)
Demons

Power
Pies
Swans
Roos

———————-

Cats
Hawks
Dockers
Bombers
Lions
Crows
Bulldogs
Saints
Blues
Suns

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Hawthorn, Melbourne & Collingwood will have tougher draws than this year.

Crows will have an easier draw.

Geelong, Port and Essendon slightly easier.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Hawthorn, Melbourne & Collingwood will have tougher draws than this year.

Crows will have an easier draw.

Geelong, Port and Essendon slightly easier.

Given the draw is on ladder positions, I think we would expect an easier draw as well. Luck plays a part as well though.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Feel it's hard to predict. Think we'll be similar to this year, Richmond to drop, Pies about the same, Melbourne to rise.