2019 Ladder Predictions

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telsor

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I think the great sides cover injuries better than the rest. Pies and West Coast did it all year, not surprised they were the last 2 standing.

At some point Richmond are going to face some challenges injury wise, will be interesting to see how they respond. Their top end stock is good but a season ending injury to a Rance or Jack or even Nank will really test their depth.
Last time we faced challenges injury-wise we won the flag.

Our 'innovative' game plan of one tall forward and one Ruckman (+Grigg) didn't come about by choice after all. At the start of the year, the idea was for Hampson and Griffiths to both be playing a lot of games.

Adjusting to injury doesn't necessarily mean like for like replacement.

That said, while our midfield depth might be questionable, we're a lot better off for KPP coverage than we've been in some time.
 

Rion

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I'll have a go.

1. Collingwood: nearly won it all last year with a side struck hard by injury so getting those guys back + Beams should see them first. Incredible midfield
2. West Coast Eagles: well rounded team with a strong game-plan. Their talent in the forward line and defense should see them take to the 6-6-6 well. Home ground advantage is enormous.
3. Richmond: Slight doubts on how they'll adapt to the rule changes but they are a consistently strong team all across the ground, especially in Melbourne. Riewoldt will flourish with Lynch beside him.
4. Adelaide: Horrible year last year but all signs point to them storming back up the ladder with a strong forward-line and midfield. Defence is a little shaky perhaps but they've got some real talent there. Brad/Matt Crouch will be two of the best midfielders in the comp by the end of the year (if they aren't already now).
5. Melbourne: Solid team pushed out by the quality of the 4 above. Still a little worried about their record against the better sides and their midfield needs more class/polish for mine.
6. GWS: Great on their day with a full team but depth is quite poor. If Kelly/Coniglio/Taranto stay together for a season though they could push the 4.
7. Geelong: Have to put them in just based on their midfield. Defence is starting to fall away and the forward-line is going to rely very heavily on Ablett.
8. Essendon: Bit of a wildcard for me, hard to place. Don't rate Worsfold.

9. North Melbourne: Another wildcard. Hall/Polec will turn out to be inspired pick-ups and they've still got a bunch of quality midfield grunt but I'm just not confident in them to put them in the 8.
10. Port Adelaide: On their day a real threat but very inconsistent and seem to have a game-plan which negates their strength. Don't rate Hinkley but if he changes it up the list has the talent to make the 8.
11. Hawthorn: The mix of experienced talent/youngsters is a little underwhelming for the Hawks this year (especially bar Mitchell) but shouldn't ever count out Clarko.
12. Brisbane: Think they are being slightly overrated. Don't think they've got the experienced talent of those above them and need to rely on the development of youngsters who might still be a few years away. Do have some exciting talent though so they'll rise a little.
13. Sydney: End of an era. The older guys are falling off and the youngsters are too inconsistent to take up the mantle. Will get enough from Heeney/Mills/Parker/Buddy/Lloyd to keep them completely sinking down.
14. St. Kilda: Can see a bit of promise in the Saints. Don't think they're building a list that'll ever contend for a premiership (no A-grade talent) but a focus on pressure and a workman-like team should see them rise at least a little.
15. Freo: I'd love to have Freo higher but I just kept finding teams I think will outperform them. Forward line and midfield will need time to gell (particularly if as expected Darcy plays ruck most of the season) while the defense atm looks shaky. Brayshaw will elevate himself into conversation as one of the best up and coming young talents around. Can see us being on the end of some big losses when our young midfield is dominated by a Collingwood/Richmond and our defense is unable to hold up playing 6 v 6.
16. Western Bulldogs: Decent midfield but the forward-line might be the worst in the comp.
17. Carlton: See a hell of a lot of promise in Carlton but it's still too early. The midfield they are developing is going to be incredible in 3-4 years.
18. Gold Coast: Feel for Dew. Can see Gold Coast being absolutely pummeled by almost every team. A young and weak midfield/defense in 6-6-6 land is an absolute death knell.
 
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Lsta062

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Not really getting the forward line harmony thing. That I've not heard before. I expect the losses thing. Doesn't offend me in a prediction thread, just confusing.
Yeah don’t take offence to it. I just think that their forward line does not get the best out of the work their midfield puts in.

I don’t know, the two Sydney teams are the ones I probably get wrong the most so you can discount what I say about them if you like :p
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Yeah don’t take offence to it. I just think that their forward line does not get the best out of the work their midfield puts in.

I don’t know, the two Sydney teams are the ones I probably get wrong the most so you can discount what I say about them if you like :p
More curious as to the reasoning.
 

Magpie Monopoly

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Last time we faced challenges injury-wise we won the flag.

Our 'innovative' game plan of one tall forward and one Ruckman (+Grigg) didn't come about by choice after all. At the start of the year, the idea was for Hampson and Griffiths to both be playing a lot of games.

Adjusting to injury doesn't necessarily mean like for like replacement.

That said, while our midfield depth might be questionable, we're a lot better off for KPP coverage than we've been in some time.
Not trying to be disagreeable, but just a comparison on players missing games for Richmond in 2017 vs. Collingwood and West Coast in 2018. I've taken (taken into account a few factors but at the end of the day it's just in my opinion, feel free to disagree, but lets try not to turn the discussion into player A vs. player B) the 3 most important/key position defends, midfielders and forwards plus the number 1 ruck for each team and seen total games played:

Defense:
- Richmond 2017 (Rance, Grimes, McIntosh) - 74 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (McGovern, Hurn, Barrass) - 68 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Dunn, Moore, Howe) - 42 Games Played

Forwards:
- Richmond 2017 (Riewoldt, Caddy, Butler) - 68 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Kennedy, Darling, Cripps) - 60 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (De Goey, Cox, Elliott) - 45 Games Played

Midfielders:
- Richmond 2017 (Cotchin, Martin, Lambert) - 74 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Shuey, Gaff, Yeo) - 64 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Treloar, Pendlebury, Sidebottom) - 68 Games Played

Ruck:
- Richmond 2017 (Naknervis) - 24 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Naitanui) - 14 games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Grundy) - 26 games Played

Totals:
- Richmond 2017 - 240 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 - 206 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 - 181 Games Played


Again, let's try to avoid an argument about which players warranted selection and just try focus on the numbers.
 

adammania9

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1. West Coast - reckon they have another gear to kick into. Incredible top tier of players all decorated with experience and now glory, and their depth players will have a cool group of 19-21 year olds breathing down their necks. They just look like a very overwhelming outfit at the moment.

2. Collingwood - with an unbelievable array of top players as well as extensive depth, Collingwood should return to the top four and have another real go at a premiership. Adding Beams, Elliott and key defensive depth to their 2018 list should set them up for another crack.

3. Richmond - can’t doubt their quality. Have added Lynch, and Higgins and Graham and co are ready to up the ante and put Richmond in position for another massive tilt. They’re a side who can creep up at anytime and turn a game upside down.

4. Melbourne - by the end of the season should have enough experience and fluency to really be in the premiership hunt. Their ruck and inside midfield units looks fearsome and their array of creative and opportunistic forwards is very nice. I reckon the Demons will start the season in an iffy patch but will hit September as maybe the league’s form side.

5. Adelaide - I usually don’t like assessing JLT form but they looked really on against GWS. Their midfield is absolutely stacked, their back line is first grade and the forward line still carries that class it did a couple years back. Still very much in premiership contention but will have to do it the hard way from fifth.

6. GWS Giants - definitely a premiership smokey. The back line is what really impresses me - it’s a fantastic blend of smalls and talls, old and young and attackers and defenders. It’s very easy to forget that before late season injuries struck last year, the Giants had won 9 in 10 and were considered by most to be the 2nd or 3rd best side in the league.

7. Geelong - again, I don’t like over assessing JLT form but they looked much better than they did last year. The midfield seemed to gel together much better and their poor forward pressure has been fixed up. Whilst they have a lot of flashy and game changing players, I just think there’s a lack of reliable performers in the forward half of the ground to really carry them back to flag contention.

8. North Melbourne - looked a bit rusty in JLT but if they add Tarrant, Daw and Thompson to the back line, they’ll concede lesser scores. They look a side that may struggle to find their feet early on but I reckon they’ll find some real fluency in the second half of the year and waltz into finals in great form.

—————————————————————

9. Hawthorn - Mitchell is obviously a godly loss but Hawthorn in their infinite wisdom always find a way to compete. Headlined by little known youngsters, I reckon they’ll be in the eight for most of the season but will be knocked off at the last gasp. If they play finals I won’t be surprised in the slightest.

10. Essendon - the last team I will judge on their JLT form - they looked completely lost against Geelong and very uninspiring against Carlton. Essendon clearly have a lot of on-field talent but they’re just not a frightening outfit. As a result, I expect them to continue their trend of the past decade or so in beating a premiership contender or two during the year whilst balancing the ledger with losses to the league’s bottom sides. Essendon’s back line particularly is looking really bad.

11. Sydney Swans - on the bandwagon that they’ll fall off. They were awful in the last section of the season and copped wins on the back of crucial injuries to their opposition and they were destroyed in their final scoring only 30 points. The list looks dry and I struggle to see how they’ll kick enough winning scores this season.

12. Port Adelaide - great looking back line, competitive midfield and forward lines; they can definitely still play finals footy but as we’ve seen over the past few years, Port are (and I hate this expression) a mentally weak team. When the whips are cracking and they need to win games in the back half of the year to play finals footy, I don’t think they’ll seize the moment. How they’ll adjust without two of their back ball movers in Polec and Wingard will be very interesting. It does look like they’ll be playing a lot of youngsters this year.

13. Brisbane Lions - good looking bunch particularly their young midfield. Forward line looks threatening and they have a great core of seasoned experience to guide the way. I can see them contending for finals but like last year, I reckon that despite playing a lot of good footy they may fall short in a handful of games which will cost them.

14. St Kilda - was looking at them as a bolter but the Roberton news and McCartin setback I think has had before and will again take a significant toll on the rest of the team. I think they made a lot of bold moves in the off-season regarding the playing list that look good early, and now they need to re-evaluate the coaching group. With Carlisle and Roberton set to miss a lot of footy, I reckon they’ll concede too many scores that they can’t match themselves.

15. Fremantle - will again win the games at home that they need to, to avoid finishing down the bottom but won’t be very competitive away from home. I don’t think they have anywhere near as much upside as others are suggesting, and I think the loss of Neale is bigger than the additions of Hogan and Lobb. With a midfield unit like theirs I cannot see them compete any week that they’re without Fyfe.

16. Western Bulldogs - blegh everywhere. The midfield looks terrific on paper but I’ve been watching them for a while now and it’s nowhere near as good as people rate it to be. Forward line is probably the league’s worst and the back line is okay without being great. Young and exciting, I think this will be another year for pumping games into 19-22 year olds before maybe moving up in 2020. Right now though I reckon they look hopeless.

17. Carlton - looked switched on in the JLT but I reckon at least come the second half of the year, they’ll really be battling. The forward line looks pretty good and the back line looks very competitive but that midfield doesn’t have the experience nor the ability to regularly supply enough footy to the forwards. 2019 is about putting games into the kids again.

18. Gold Coast - I think they look okay, but I just don’t see enough class or aggression to regularly win games of footy. With Rory Thompson going down with an ACL, I expect many key forwards will have field days again st the Suns.
 
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jezzajay

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1. Richmond
2. GWS
3. Collingwood
4. Melbourne
5. West Coast
6. Adelaide
7. North Melb
8. Brisbane
------------------
9. Fremantle
10. Geelong
11. Essendon
12. Sydney
13. Pt Adelaide
14. Carlton
15. Hawthorn
16. Bulldogs
17. St Kilda
18. Gold Coast
 

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dzussy

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On West Coast, imagine if they lost McGovern. That's one player they can not cover if he went down injured ( where have we heard that before )

Of course you can say that about many sides. Martin for Richmond, Danger for Geelong. McGovern is massive though and what would have happened had he not been in the GF. All if's and but's, what if the trio that missed were there etc. I'd hate for another player of such calibre to go down though.

Teams seasons and the Premiership race can be shaped by an injury or two ( obviously ) Reigning Brownlow Medal winner Mitchell out has caused the odds to increase dramatically just for the Hawks to participate in September action.

If West Coast did lose McGovern to injury, it would be interesting to see where people's perceptions of them lie in premiership aspirations.
Losing him would hurt abit no doubt. We lost Shep, Gaffy & Nicnat but still won the lot. The Eagles can almost base a side around McLovin, so if he is out then it certainly unbalances everything. Like when Dustin Martin played injured in the Prelim last year, yes he played but he may as well hadn't have. Lose a major key element like these types of players and it hurts sides for sure. But until then.... we keep rolling.
 

Ocha905

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1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. Adelaide
4. Melbourne

5. Geelong
6. Collingwood
7. North Melbourne
8. GWS

9. Brisbane
10. Port Adelaide
11. Essendon
12. Hawthorn
13. Sydney
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Fremantle
18. Gold Coast

Melbourne d Richmond
West Coast d Adelaide
Collingwood d North Melbourne
GWS d Geelong

Richmond d GWS
Adelaide d Collingwood

Melbourne d Adelaide
Richmond d West Coast

GF - Richmond d Melbourne
 

jatz14

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On West Coast, imagine if they lost McGovern. That's one player they can not cover if he went down injured ( where have we heard that before )

Of course you can say that about many sides. Martin for Richmond, Danger for Geelong. McGovern is massive though and what would have happened had he not been in the GF. All if's and but's, what if the trio that missed were there etc. I'd hate for another player of such calibre to go down though.

Teams seasons and the Premiership race can be shaped by an injury or two ( obviously ) Reigning Brownlow Medal winner Mitchell out has caused the odds to increase dramatically just for the Hawks to participate in September action.

If West Coast did lose McGovern to injury, it would be interesting to see where people's perceptions of them lie in premiership aspirations.
West coast have an abundance of quality talls. Their real issue is who to leave out. Could probably cover the loss of a McGovern better than any other team in the comp.

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bit uncomfortable seeing many predicting the crows to finish high up the ladder after ending up 12th last year. we could easily implode and finish bottom 4.
 

joop

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Dismantled Melb in round 12. Also were defeated by a mediocre Geelong, Hawks and GWS at home. Like I said, credit for what they did to Rich but any team can win the flag, if they can get in a half decent position to do so. Which Collingwood did aided by a soft draw. Winning games like they did in 2018 builds confidence and they start playing bold footy, which is what you need to do come finals time. I'm not expecting you to agree with me due to your biased opinion. But proof will be in the pudding this year. Alot tougher draw. 1st 3 games are crucial to their year. Good luck.
You're really clutching at straws if you think Collingwood are a middle of the road side.
 

dylan93

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Final Post-JLT Prediction:

1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. North Melbourne
8. Sydney
------------------------------
9. Essendon
10. Geelong
11. Hawthorn
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Fremantle
15. Port Adelaide
16. Carlton
17. St. Kilda
18. Gold Coast

Finals:

QF1 - West Coast vs. Adelaide
EF1 - Collingwood vs. Sydney
EF2 - GWS vs. North Melbourne
QF2 - Richmond vs. Melbourne

SF1 - Adelaide vs. Collingwood
SF2 - Richmond vs. GWS

PF1 - West Coast vs. Richmond
PF2 - Melbourne vs. Adelaide

GF - Richmond vs. Melbourne

Brownlow: Josh Kelly
Coleman: Tom McDonald
Norm Smith: Dustin Martin
Rising Star: Sam Walsh
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Final Post-JLT Prediction:

1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. North Melbourne
8. Sydney
------------------------------
9. Essendon
10. Geelong
11. Hawthorn
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Fremantle
15. Port Adelaide
16. Carlton
17. St. Kilda
18. Gold Coast

Finals:

QF1 - West Coast vs. Adelaide
EF1 - Collingwood vs. Sydney
EF2 - GWS vs. North Melbourne
QF2 - Richmond vs. Melbourne

SF1 - Adelaide vs. Collingwood
SF2 - Richmond vs. GWS

PF1 - West Coast vs. Richmond
PF2 - Melbourne vs. Adelaide

GF - Richmond vs. Melbourne

Brownlow: Josh Kelly
Coleman: Tom McDonald
Norm Smith: Dustin Martin
Rising Star: Sam Walsh
Could be famous last words but I fancy a matchup with the Tigers in September next year. I feel like we know the wall we have to climb with them.

We have them twice in the H/A so we'll get an idea then.
 

TooBlue14

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Final Post-JLT Prediction:

1. West Coast
2. Richmond
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. North Melbourne
8. Sydney
------------------------------
9. Essendon
10. Geelong
11. Hawthorn
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Fremantle
15. Port Adelaide
16. Carlton
17. St. Kilda
18. Gold Coast

Finals:

QF1 - West Coast vs. Adelaide
EF1 - Collingwood vs. Sydney
EF2 - GWS vs. North Melbourne
QF2 - Richmond vs. Melbourne

SF1 - Adelaide vs. Collingwood
SF2 - Richmond vs. GWS

PF1 - West Coast vs. Richmond
PF2 - Melbourne vs. Adelaide

GF - Richmond vs. Melbourne

Brownlow: Josh Kelly
Coleman: Tom McDonald
Norm Smith: Dustin Martin
Rising Star: Sam Walsh
Tough finish for Richmond. Lose to melb at the G. Travel to west coast and win (doubtful) and then return to the G to beat the side they just lost to in the GF. I find this highly unlikely despite it being a prediction thread. As a melb supporter it’s okay to just bsck yourself in. 95% of Richmond supporters are doing the same as younon here but picking their own team as premiers. I for one think Melbourne will smash it in this year. They’ll peak at the right time and win the GF easily.
 

RonnieRaven

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Purely home and away don’t think the crows will get to the gf

Crows
Eagles
Demons
Tigers
Giants
Pies
Bombers
Cats

Swans
Power
Hawks
Dockers
Lions
Roos

Dogs
Blues
Saints
Suns
 

kaiserchief13

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Tough finish for Richmond. Lose to melb at the G. Travel to west coast and win (doubtful) and then return to the G to beat the side they just lost to in the GF. I find this highly unlikely despite it being a prediction thread. As a melb supporter it’s okay to just bsck yourself in. 95% of Richmond supporters are doing the same as younon here but picking their own team as premiers. I for one think Melbourne will smash it in this year. They’ll peak at the right time and win the GF easily.
I reckon Melbourne are very overrated. Their forward line is putrid outside of McDonald. Their KPD are decent but May and Lever are no where near AA so they'll get owned by KPF
 

Russian Demon

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I reckon Melbourne are very overrated. Their forward line is putrid outside of McDonald. Their KPD are decent but May and Lever are no where near AA so they'll get owned by KPF
Well you are half right. KPFs have been owning us for years, but its the stupidly high scoring forward line that kept the wins ticking over last year.

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kaiserchief13

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PCORF

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I ran the ladder predictor and got this.

1 Richmond - 15-7 - 123.1
2 Collingwood - 14-8 - 114.6
3 Adelaide Crows - 13-9 - 127.6
4 Geelong Cats - 13-9 - 120.6
5 Sydney Swans - 13-9 - 109.0
6 Essendon - 12-9-1 - 100.5
7 West Coast Eagles - 12-10 - 111.8
8 Melbourne - 12-10 - 107.3

9 North Melbourne - 12-10 - 104.7
10 Hawthorn - 12-10 - 103.6
11 GWS Giants - 12-10 - 102.6
12 Brisbane Lions - 10-12 - 92.2
13 Fremantle - 10-12 - 90.8
14 Carlton - 9-13 - 83.8
15 Port Adelaide - 8-14 - 86.4
16 St Kilda - 7-14 - 82.1
17 Western Bulldogs - 7-15 - 83.3
18 Gold Coast Suns - 6-16 - 76.0

Richmond will lose the Grand Final to either Collingwood or Adelaide.
 
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