2019 Ladder Predictions

Balls In

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On West Coast, imagine if they lost McGovern. That's one player they can not cover if he went down injured ( where have we heard that before )

Of course you can say that about many sides. Martin for Richmond, Danger for Geelong. McGovern is massive though and what would have happened had he not been in the GF.
Barrass is the closest replacement intercept mark in the AFL. It would just mean Schofield who is the unluckiest KPP in AFL gets into our best 22 into fullback. Brander as a replacement on the replacement. The bloke we cant cover is Nicnat .. except we did.
 
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Go the Guts

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4. Adelaide: Horrible year last year but all signs point to them storming back up the ladder with a strong forward-line and midfield. Defence is a little shaky perhaps but they've got some real talent there. Brad/Matt Crouch will be two of the best midfielders in the comp by the end of the year (if they aren't already now).
Good call, here's a bit from Matt Crouch's Wikipedia to confirm....

"In 2017, Crouch lifted his game to a new level, averaging 33 disposals per game and finishing second in the AFL for disposals after the regular season, and during the finals broke Dane Swan's AFL record for most disposals in a complete season with 825. He was selected in the 2017 All-Australian team and nominated by his club for the AFL Players Association MVP Award.
In late August 2017 he was named The Age's Player of the Year and won the Malcolm Blight Medal as Adelaide Football Club's best and fairest winner for 2017. In January 2018 Matthew re-sign with the Crows until the end of 2021"


He's only 23. And Brad is the better player......scary good for us.
 

Dr Awkward

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Geez lot of people taking JLT form as gospel. When will you guys learn lmao
JLT is a better predictor than previous pre-season comps IMO. Teams only play two games, intensity was reasonably high and most teams named strong squads. Not saying it's completely accurate but can read a little bit into it.
 
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I ran the ladder predictor and got this.

1 Richmond - 15-7 - 123.1
2 Collingwood - 14-8 - 114.6
3 Adelaide Crows - 13-9 - 127.6
4 Geelong Cats - 13-9 - 120.6
5 Sydney Swans - 13-9 - 109.0
6 Essendon - 12-9-1 - 100.5
7 West Coast Eagles - 12-10 - 111.8
8 Melbourne - 12-10 - 107.3

9 North Melbourne - 12-10 - 104.7
10 Hawthorn - 12-10 - 103.6
11 GWS Giants - 12-10 - 102.6
12 Brisbane Lions - 10-12 - 92.2
13 Fremantle - 10-12 - 90.8
14 Carlton - 9-13 - 83.8
15 Port Adelaide - 8-14 - 86.4
16 St Kilda - 7-14 - 82.1
17 Western Bulldogs - 7-15 - 83.3
18 Gold Coast Suns - 6-16 - 76.0
St Kilda only plays 21 Rounds?
Unless you forgot a draw with Essendon on your ladder?
 

DontArgue4

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Not trying to be disagreeable, but just a comparison on players missing games for Richmond in 2017 vs. Collingwood and West Coast in 2018. I've taken (taken into account a few factors but at the end of the day it's just in my opinion, feel free to disagree, but lets try not to turn the discussion into player A vs. player B) the 3 most important/key position defends, midfielders and forwards plus the number 1 ruck for each team and seen total games played:

Defense:
- Richmond 2017 (Rance, Grimes, McIntosh) - 74 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (McGovern, Hurn, Barrass) - 68 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Dunn, Moore, Howe) - 42 Games Played

Forwards:
- Richmond 2017 (Riewoldt, Caddy, Butler) - 68 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Kennedy, Darling, Cripps) - 60 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (De Goey, Cox, Elliott) - 45 Games Played

Midfielders:
- Richmond 2017 (Cotchin, Martin, Lambert) - 74 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Shuey, Gaff, Yeo) - 64 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Treloar, Pendlebury, Sidebottom) - 68 Games Played

Ruck:
- Richmond 2017 (Naknervis) - 24 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 (Naitanui) - 14 games Played
- Collingwood 2018 (Grundy) - 26 games Played

Totals:
- Richmond 2017 - 240 Games Played
- West Coast 2018 - 206 Games Played
- Collingwood 2018 - 181 Games Played


Again, let's try to avoid an argument about which players warranted selection and just try focus on the numbers.
How did you pick the 3 for each line? lol

McIntosh in our 3 defenders? Lambert in our 3 midfielders? Butler in our 3 forwards?

Astbury replaces McIntosh, Prestia replaces Lambert, Rioli replaces Butler
 

Magpie Monopoly

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How did you pick the 3 for each line? lol

McIntosh in our 3 defenders? Lambert in our 3 midfielders? Butler in our 3 forwards?

Astbury replaces McIntosh, Prestia replaces Lambert, Rioli replaces Butler
A) Thanks for not reading the full post. Astbury over McIntosh potentially, but Butler finished above Rioli in your BnF and Lambert finished above Prestia, so you can easily make the argument they were more important.

B) Rioli played 25 games in 2017, Astbury played 25 games in 2017, Prestia played 22 games in 2017. If I use the players you selected, your games played total goes from 240 to 241.

L.
 

DontArgue4

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A) Thanks for not reading the full post. Astbury over McIntosh potentially, but Butler finished above Rioli in your BnF and Lambert finished above Prestia, so you can easily make the argument they were more important.

B) Rioli played 25 games in 2017, Astbury played 25 games in 2017, Prestia played 22 games in 2017. If I use the players you selected, your games played total goes from 240 to 241.

L.
What does the BnF have to do with it? How about we just use our eyes....

Astbury is CLEARLY better than McIntosh (who isnt even a defender lol)

Prestia is better than Lambert, hes our 3rd best mid easily

Rioli is better than Butler

Why dont we use 2018 games with those players included...

Astbury healthy with 22 games
Rioli - 12 games
Prestia - 13 games
 

JG13

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I ran the ladder predictor and got this.

1 Richmond - 15-7 - 123.1
2 Collingwood - 14-8 - 114.6
3 Adelaide Crows - 13-9 - 127.6
4 Geelong Cats - 13-9 - 120.6
5 Sydney Swans - 13-9 - 109.0
6 Essendon - 12-9-1 - 100.5
7 West Coast Eagles - 12-10 - 111.8
8 Melbourne - 12-10 - 107.3

9 North Melbourne - 12-10 - 104.7
10 Hawthorn - 12-10 - 103.6
11 GWS Giants - 12-10 - 102.6
12 Brisbane Lions - 10-12 - 92.2
13 Fremantle - 10-12 - 90.8
14 Carlton - 9-13 - 83.8
15 Port Adelaide - 8-14 - 86.4
16 St Kilda - 7-14 - 82.1
17 Western Bulldogs - 7-15 - 83.3
18 Gold Coast Suns - 6-16 - 76.0
that would make for an incredible exciting end to the year. Brutal for the teams just outside the eight
 

Magpie Monopoly

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What does the BnF have to do with it? How about we just use our eyes....

Astbury is CLEARLY better than McIntosh (who isnt even a defender lol)

Prestia is better than Lambert, hes our 3rd best mid easily

Rioli is better than Butler

Why dont we use 2018 games with those players included...

Astbury healthy with 22 games
Rioli - 12 games
Prestia - 13 games
The suggestion was made (by a Richmond poster) that Richmond's injury list in 2017 was comparable to Collingwood and West Coasts in 2018, which you clearly didn't read. I'm just pointing out that that is incorrect.

I said I didn't want to have a discussion about which players I selected as it just derails the crux of the discussion, which you also didn't read. Even then, I still bit on your bait to derail the discussion naming different players, which didn't change the outcome.

Although it's entertaining to watch you somehow twist the discussion to make it seem like Richmond has an injury-riddled list, let's try not to waste each others time and further derail any discussion.
 

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Lsta062

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The suggestion was made (by a Richmond poster) that Richmond's injury list in 2017 was comparable to Collingwood and West Coasts in 2018, which you clearly didn't read. I'm just pointing out that that is incorrect.

I said I didn't want to have a discussion about which players I selected as it just derails the crux of the discussion, which you also didn't read. Even then, I still bit on your bait to derail the discussion naming different players, which didn't change the outcome.

Although it's entertaining to watch you somehow twist the discussion to make it seem like Richmond has an injury-riddled list, let's try not to waste each others time and further derail any discussion.
If you look at telsor ‘s post, then you’ll see that injury count is not necessarily what is being compared with Collingwood and West Coast. It is the significance of the injuries.

Remember that Richmond used to play 3 talls in the forward line in 2013-2016. So, when Vickery left at the end of 2016 and Griffiths + Hampson went down injured, people were wondering what in the world we’d do with Riewoldt as our only tall in our forward line because we pretty much had no one else. That’s when we brought in the smaller forward line and as a result won the Premiership.

Due to our injury we not only needed to find replacements, but change the way we play. That’s the challenge we faced and we succeeded.
 

Magpie Monopoly

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If you look at telsor ‘s post, then you’ll see that injury count is not necessarily what is being compared with Collingwood and West Coast. It is the significance of the injuries.

Remember that Richmond used to play 3 talls in the forward line in 2013-2016. So, when Vickery left at the end of 2016 and Griffiths + Hampson went down injured, people were wondering what in the world we’d do with Riewoldt as our only tall in our forward line because we pretty much had no one else. That’s when we brought in the smaller forward line and as a result won the Premiership.

Due to our injury we not only needed to find replacements, but change the way we play. That’s the challenge we faced and we succeeded.
I do agree Richmond certainly needed to mould their list to deal with injuries in 2017 and did so very successfully.

I guess there are 3 different types of injury adversity that a club can get hit by:

1) A list needing to be reshaped due to long term injuries to KPP and stars over several years.
2) Medium-term injuries to stars and KPP over a season.
3) Short term injuries that leave teams down players during a game and over a few weeks.

I would agree Richmond have probably had to deal with number 1 while West Coast is probably number 2 and 3, and Collingwood 2 and 3 as well. You may disagree but in my eyes, 3 has the best chance of derailing a season, then 2 and then 1.

Having players go down during a game really puts you on the back foot. For example, in the Richmond game this year, we had injuries to Howe (concussion), Mihocek (ankle, was forced to play through due to numbers) and Scharenberg (ACL). This isn't a freak occurrence either, in some other games last year, we had Pendles (Ankle), Moore (hamstring), Phillips (concussion) against Geelong and against West Coast we had Mason Cox (soreness), Sidebottom (eye, had to play through), Moore (dislocated finger), Sier (corked quad) and Langdon (right knee). These were all during 1 game, and we lost all those games. It's easy to say "oh that's just using injuries as an excuse", but coping that sort of a hit during a game really makes it near impossible to win. That's not an excuse, it's just a fact. One or 2 players I think you can cover, but once that number blows out to 3 or 4+ it becomes really tough.

Obviously, for us, we had an extensive injury list on top of that (they were just off the top of my head), but I always felt those situations were much more damaging than just having Treloar out for 8 weeks or Elliott, Wells and Moore out for the year or something like that.
 

telsor

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I do agree Richmond certainly needed to mould their list to deal with injuries in 2017 and did so very successfully.

I guess there are 3 different types of injury adversity that a club can get hit by:

1) A list needing to be reshaped due to long term injuries to KPP and stars over several years.
2) Medium-term injuries to stars and KPP over a season.
3) Short term injuries that leave teams down players during a game and over a few weeks.

I would agree Richmond have probably had to deal with number 1 while West Coast is probably number 2 and 3, and Collingwood 2 and 3 as well. You may disagree but in my eyes, 3 has the best chance of derailing a season, then 2 and then 1.

Having players go down during a game really puts you on the back foot. For example, in the Richmond game this year, we had injuries to Howe (concussion), Mihocek (ankle, was forced to play through due to numbers) and Scharenberg (ACL). This isn't a freak occurrence either, in some other games last year, we had Pendles (Ankle), Moore (hamstring), Phillips (concussion) against Geelong and against West Coast we had Mason Cox (soreness), Sidebottom (eye, had to play through), Moore (dislocated finger), Sier (corked quad) and Langdon (right knee). These were all during 1 game, and we lost all those games. It's easy to say "oh that's just using injuries as an excuse", but coping that sort of a hit during a game really makes it near impossible to win. That's not an excuse, it's just a fact. One or 2 players I think you can cover, but once that number blows out to 3 or 4+ it becomes really tough.

Obviously, for us, we had an extensive injury list on top of that (they were just off the top of my head), but I always felt those situations were much more damaging than just having Treloar out for 8 weeks or Elliott, Wells and Moore out for the year or something like that.
I think the other problem is that people often fail to recognise the importance of particular players to a team.

A lot of the 'Richmond didn't have injuries' argument seems to come down to those making that claim just not rating the players who DID get injured, and therefore dismissing the injury as unimportant because 'the player wasn't all that good anyway' when really they were a core part of our best 22.
 

TheWhiteRhino

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Because they were mostly awful last season and probably shouldn't have even been in the finals.
People have very short memories and love to judge high performing teams to a different standard.

Some how Sydney were awful, when teams who finished below them had strong seasons.

Sydney beat West Coast (twice), Giants (twice), Cats, Pies and Dees last year with injuries to key players throughout the season, including Buddy, Mills, Melican, Reid, Smith, Hannebery, Naismith and McVeigh.
 

Kaufman

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People have very short memories and love to judge high performing teams to a different standard.

Some how Sydney were awful, when teams who finished below them had strong seasons.

Sydney beat West Coast (twice), Giants (twice), Cats, Pies and Dees last year with injuries to key players throughout the season, including Buddy, Mills, Melican, Reid, Smith, Hannebery, Naismith and McVeigh.
I will add that a few of their wins were plain due to the opposition being wasteful up forward. If you are relying on the opposition being wasteful to win, you are probably not a such great team (you can't kick a big score). That is not viable. Prime example was that Melbourne game where they had 17 less inside 50s.

I think that is something they are working on over the offseason as that was something Longmire has talked about.



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cfc4life

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These always end up being a crap shoot but here we go:

1. Richmond- Still the best team in the comp when fully switched on, although the new rules may affect them and their forward press.
2. West Coast- Kind of came from nowhere last year but I think they have enough talent to stay up top.
3. Melbourne- I could see them anywhere from top 4 to just missing the 8. Depends which Melbourne turn up. McDonald is key.
4. Collingwood- Injuries permitting, I see them potentially going one better in 2019, however that's a big if.

5. Adelaide- Easiest draw of the competitive teams, should move back into the 8 pretty simply.
6. GWS- Their midfield is still bonkers even with Shiel leaving. Class rises to the top.
7. Essendon- On the rebound they will be unstoppable, their success is dependent on teams stopping Saad/McKenna etc.
8. Brisbane- This is the year they rise. Young talent in spades.

9. Sydney- Competitive but not good enough. Couple of their stars on the downswing.
10. North Melbourne- Showed good signs in the JLT, another decent year for them.
11. Geelong- They don't fill me with confidence, very thin depth after the big 3 or 4.
12. Port Adelaide- Another team that's lost some important players in the off season, Ryder being gone early hurts a lot.
13. Hawthorn- Pretty worrying age profile
14. Western Bulldogs- Another building year
15. Fremantle- A real unknown, but losing Neale hurts
16. Carlton- Improvement for sure, but no miracles
17. Gold Coast- Bad times ahead
18. St Kilda- a rabble, especially if Roberton isn't there.
 

Coaster2012

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People have very short memories and love to judge high performing teams to a different standard.

Some how Sydney were awful, when teams who finished below them had strong seasons.

Sydney beat West Coast (twice), Giants (twice), Cats, Pies and Dees last year with injuries to key players throughout the season, including Buddy, Mills, Melican, Reid, Smith, Hannebery, Naismith and McVeigh.
They beat WC in round 1 before WC were the team they ended up becoming, then they beat them at the SCG where WC never win. Hell, WC lost to North Melbourne in Tasmania. If WC played the Swans today in Perth. I would have WC comfortably.
 

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1. Richmond - still too good, the only team I don't think essendon have any chance against.
2. West Coast - solid all around, amazing GF win
3. Collingwood - more of the same + beams
4. Adelaide - list primed for a move
5. Melbourne - hopefully a fitter list means a rise for their sake
6. GWS - very talented despite the losses
7. Geelong - still too damn talented of a top end for mine
8. North Melbourne - exceeded my expectations last year and added 3 good recruits. No Waite seems like a big loss however, 32 goals last year in a half of a season :eek:

9. Hawthorn - Still too damn good on the outside
10. Essendon - Sloppy JLT fills not much hope. Talented list hindered by limited pre season for their stars and a one dimensional game plan that will lead to inconsistent performances.

11. Sydney - Still talented but just have them missing
12. Western Bulldogs - Really rate the midfield and reckon it'll get them over the line in some games.
13. Brisbane - building a good list
14. Port Adelaide - lots of kids playing now + no ryder, possibly no wines at the start of the year?

15. Fremantle - Don't know where to rate them, this feels too low but someone had to go here. I fear they'll struggle when they inevitably lose Fyfe for 3 or so games

16. Carlton - would have sligthly higher if doch fit.
17. St Kilda - still think they'll upset a few teams despite their position (ess)
18. Gold Coast - don't know much about the list but they just seem almost as youthful as when they started.
 

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Finally done a predictor.
Mostly weighted on where teams should be in relation to their opponents

1-Tigers. 2 losses for the year. finish 2 games clear
2-Eagles
3-Crows
-Both on equal points. % to determine 2nd and 3rd
4-Coll
5-Bris
6-Ess
7-Melb
-All on equal points. Surprised how good the Lions draw is for them, and how tough the Dees have it.
8-GWS
9-Syd
-Equal points for both NSW teams. Have very hard draws, particularly early. If GWS beat Ess both times, it would put them level on wins with Dons
----------
10-Cats
11-Port
Both a game behind the 8
12-North
13-Dogs
14-Hawks
15-Freo
16-Suns
17-Saints
18-Blues

Expectations - Bris and Ess don't capitalise. Both will miss the 8.
Swans and GWS will, and one of the Cats or Power will battle it out for 8th
 

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Here’s my ladder after afl ladder predictor

1 - RICHMOND
2 - COLLINGWOOD
3 - MELBOURNE
4 - WEST COAST
5 - ADELAIDE
6 - GEELONG
7 - GWS
8 - ESSENDON

9 - North Melb
10 - Sydney
11 - Brisbane
12 - Port Adelaide
13 - Fremantle
14 - Hawthorn
15 - Bulldogs
16 - Carlton
17 - St Kilda
18 - Gold Coast
 
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