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Matthews basically has to join the break in all the high mountain stages and win the intermediate sprint. But if he does that, Sagan will join him and beat him in the intermediate. The training they were talking about last night have indicated that he's not quick enough unfortunately.The only way Sagan loses green is if he falls off his bike (as he did last year), or does something stupid and gets thrown out of the race (2017). Matthews can get to all of the same sprints as Sagan, but Sagan will still beat him every single time in the race to the line. There is no path to victory for Matthews, unless something untoward happens to Sagan.
That's my point... Sagan wins the green consistently by winning those puncheur stages (e.g. last night), and by going in breakaways and winning the intermediate sprints in the high mountains. Matthews is capable of getting to all of those sprint points with Sagan, but Sagan will (almost) always beat him in the resulting sprint.Matthews basically has to join the break in all the high mountain stages and win the intermediate sprint. But if he does that, Sagan will join him and beat him in the intermediate. The training they were talking about last night have indicated that he's not quick enough unfortunately.
The intermediate sprint is really early in this stage - part way up the first Cat 1 climb, only 29km into the stage. There's a fighting chance they won't even let a breakaway go until after the intermediate sprint point. But (hedging my bets), if there is an early breakaway then you can bet that Sagan & Matthews will be part of it - and that they won't be there by the time the breakaway goes over the top of the first climb.You reckon Matthews and Sagan go into the break, collect the points at KM 29 and then sit up?