2019 Le Tour de France

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drd23 said:
Another sprint stage. Likely to not be worth staying up for but apparently the geography provides the potential for eschellons to occur in the latter half as they leave a couple of the valleys
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There's a bit of a hill toward the finish.
 
Yes Caleb! Everything went wrong but at the end of the day, he wanted it more.
 
Okay, other than Ewan in Paris, what's our next best chance at a win (For an Aussie or Mitchelton-Scott)? Has Adam Yates lost enough time for MTS? Does Clarke go in a break?
 
eth-dog said:
Okay, other than Ewan in Paris, what's our next best chance at a win (For an Aussie or Mitchelton-Scott)? Has Adam Yates lost enough time for MTS? Does Clarke go in a break?
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I think you mean Simon, not Adam?

Simon Yates is 1hr 8min down on GC, sitting in 97th overall. That's more than enough for him to be allowed off the leash in the mountains. The question is whether that's the MTS plan. Do they want him in the breakaway, with the ability to drop back and act as a "stepping stone" for an Adam Yates attack? Do they want him going in the breakaways, with the aim of winning a stage? Do they want him going in breakaways, hunting the KotM competition? Or, has he just been taking it super-easy for the first 11 days, so that he's ultra-fresh for the job of supporting his twin brother in the high mountains? Given that MTS have been 100% dedicated to winning the GC this year, my guess is the latter.

Simon Clarke is only 41 min down, but that's more than enough for him to be allowed in breakaways - and we've seen him in breakaways already this year. The only question is whether or not he his legs are good enough to get him to the finish line in 1st position.

As for other possibilities...
  • Rohan Dennis would still be one of the favourites for the TT in Pau on Friday.
  • Stage 16 in & around Nimes will be another day for the sprinters.
  • Stage 17 into Gap also presents opportunities, with the biggest climb topping out 90km from the finish. It's a transition stage, so my guess is the peleton won't be in an aggressive mood. This is probably one for the breakaway, but I can see the sprinters getting over the climb and wanting one more day in the sun before Paris. Failing that, it could be one for Michael Matthews.
 

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Vader said:
I think you mean Simon, not Adam?

Simon Yates is 1hr 8min down on GC, sitting in 97th overall. That's more than enough for him to be allowed off the leash in the mountains. The question is whether that's the MTS plan. Do they want him in the breakaway, with the ability to drop back and act as a "stepping stone" for an Adam Yates attack? Do they want him going in the breakaways, with the aim of winning a stage? Do they want him going in breakaways, hunting the KotM competition? Or, has he just been taking it super-easy for the first 11 days, so that he's ultra-fresh for the job of supporting his twin brother in the high mountains? Given that MTS have been 100% dedicated to winning the GC this year, my guess is the latter.

Simon Clarke is only 41 min down, but that's more than enough for him to be allowed in breakaways - and we've seen him in breakaways already this year. The only question is whether or not he his legs are good enough to get him to the finish line in 1st position.

As for other possibilities...
  • Rohan Dennis would still be one of the favourites for the TT in Pau on Friday.
  • Stage 16 in & around Nimes will be another day for the sprinters.
  • Stage 17 into Gap also presents opportunities, with the biggest climb topping out 90km from the finish. It's a transition stage, so my guess is the peleton won't be in an aggressive mood. This is probably one for the breakaway, but I can see the sprinters getting over the climb and wanting one more day in the sun before Paris. Failing that, it could be one for Michael Matthews.
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I guess we'll find out more tonight when we see what happens. MTS should definitely send someone up the road as a stepping stone, Jack Haig perhaps?
 
Over The Post said:
Caleb Ewan's tyres are being pumped up on the ABC website as being in with a chance tonight, is that realistic or just hopeful?
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eth-dog said:
Realistic you'd think. There aren't that many sprinters who you'd say are definitely quicker, Groenewegen is really the only one. Matthews and Sagan wouldn't be as quick IMO.
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Reign Man said:
realistic
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Well, for people like me who didn't know about him, last night shows how much we've been missing. Green next year?
 
Over The Post said:
Well, for people like me who didn't know about him, last night shows how much we've been missing. Green next year?
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Not a prayer. Riders like Matthews & Sagan are able to get to a lot of sprints which Ewan will never see - intermediate sprints in high mountain stages, and both intermediate & finish sprints on medium mountain stages. Those riders are able to accumulate far more points than the pure sprinters, who are only able to collect points on the flat stages.

Sagan will probably end up with 10x green jerseys, before he loses his edge in the sprint and moseys off into a well earned retirement.

Ewan will probably win more TdF sprints, but it's unlikely that he'll challenge for the green while Sagan is still in the peleton.
 
Over The Post said:
Well, for people like me who didn't know about him, last night shows how much we've been missing. Green next year?
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There's really only one person who can challenge Sagan for Green, Matthews. Unless they totally revamp it to make it even more weighted towards people like Ewan.
 
Hard to see this stage being a major factor in the GC. The summit of the last Cat 1 climb is 40km from the finish line, and the descent is only an average of 25m per km. That's not steep enough for an attack on the descent, and it's too far from the finish line anyway.

I think the GC riders will keep their powder dry tonight. Could be a stage for the breakaway.
 
Vader said:
Hard to see this stage being a major factor in the GC. The summit of the last Cat 1 climb is 40km from the finish line, and the descent is only an average of 25m per km. That's not steep enough for an attack on the descent, and it's too far from the finish line anyway.

I think the GC riders will keep their powder dry tonight. Could be a stage for the breakaway.
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Depends what team TUE decides to do really. If the conditions are right they could ratchet it up the second mountain and see what happens.
 
Yeah, don't foresee much happening on tonight's stage for the same reasons as Vader's already pointed out
Bradesmaen said:
Depends what team TUE decides to do really. If the conditions are right they could ratchet it up the second mountain and see what happens.
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If Stage 6 to Planche des Belles Filles is any indication, hopefully they aren't as strong as in previous years and they can't do that any more
 
drd23 said:
Yeah, don't foresee much happening on tonight's stage for the same reasons as Vader's already pointed out

If Stage 6 to Planche des Belles Filles is any indication, hopefully they aren't as strong as in previous years and they can't do that any more
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Dunno, they still seem up for it. Thomas has taken his supplements it seems.
 
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