Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[Wolftone]

I'm a bit confused with my own thoughts about how our offseason is going. I was disappointed with only recruiting Clarke and Thurlow, I thought we were in a really good position to recruit some more highly rated ready-made senior players. Then I couldn't really see how Menzel would move the needle for us because we've got Hayward already in pretty much the same role.

But the more I'm thinking about our list for next year and looking at what a best 28 or so players looks like, I'm actually starting to like what I'm seeing. It might just be an optimistic tendency of mine when it comes to football (I used to be more pessimistic until I had an epiphany that my life was far too dependent emotionally on the Swans) and there being some time and distance between how terribly the side played in the finals, but I'm starting to quite like the look of our best 22 and the players who will be kept out. I was also really pleased to hear that we're training Mitch Maguire from Canberra over the offseason and I really hope we pick him up too, I love him as a player.

So I was thinking of this as a 22 (with Menzel assumed to be on board):

Smith - Melican - Rampe
Lloyd - Aliir - McVeigh
Jones - Parker - Mills
Heeney - Franklin - Menzel
Papley - Reid - Cunningham
Sinclair - Kennedy - Hewett

IC: Florent - Clarke - Dawson - Hayward

Emer: Thurlow - Jack - Grundy - Ronke

That 22 doesn't have Ronke in it who had a really good debut year (petered off at the end), Thurlow who should be a solid/motivated player for us, or McCartin who I'd be very happy to see in the side, or O'Riordan who I desperately want in the side ASAP, or the older guys in Jack/Grundy/Naismith.

I picked Sinclair as first ruck mainly because I rate him as a better player than Naismith, but I expect Naismith will be in and Sinclair in as a forward. I wouldn't go for that though with Menzel in the side because that makes us limited in how strong our pressure is up front.

I'm not gonna pick us for a flag this year but I'd be excited to see that side play. I love that Mills, Jones and Clarke will all be in the midfield to give us more senior bodies and run, I want to see Dawson get more opportunities and Aliir to put a full season of excellent play together to prove himself as a true top-line defender.

You would have to include Ronke. He was sensational.

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[Wolftone]

Fair point. I still think Ronke is in the side. Push Heeney into the middle, and play Ronke there. Bottom line I'd rather Ronke in the side than not. He's one of our classier players personally.

And his pressure us super

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[Wolftone]

FB : Smith - Melican - Rampe
HB : McVeigh - Aliir - Lloyd
C: Jones - Parker - Florent
HF: Heeney - Franklin - Menzel
FF: Papley - Reid - Ronke
Fol: Sinclair - Kennedy - Mills

IC: Hewett - Clarke - Dawson - Hayward

That's my best crack at it at the moment. It's actually getting hard to leave some players out so we can't be that bad off. O'Riordan and Thurlow could either get a run down back as McVeigh or Smith wind down. Hewett and Clarke to rotate through the mids. Dawson to play wing or high half forward off the bench and Hayward to rotate through the forwards.

No place for Reg?

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[Wolftone]

He can fit in a forward line with them if you factor in Papley, Ronke and Hayward spending time rotating through the midfield group too.

I expect our forward line to function a fair bit differently in 2019. Naismith coming in to the team will release Sinclair to spend more time forward where he poses as a strong marking option. I suspect we will start to see Buddy slow down a bit and spend more time in the forward line, assisted by Reid coming in to the team to do more of the link up work on the wing that Buddy was having to do himself. Menzel creates another smart marking target deep in the forward 50. The tall marking options open up better opportunities for Papley and Ronke to do their best work crumbing the packs. With opposition defences stretched more by the increased marking options in our forward line it probably frees up Hayward to have more of an impact against a lesser/smaller defender too.

Just need to sort out getting our hands on the ball first out of the centre (through Naismith's tap work and Heeney, Mills, Jones and hopefully Clarke and Dawson all stepping up to take on more midfield responsibility alongside the established Kennedy and Parker) and continue to run a tight and miserly defence, where we have good options for both talls (Aliir, Melican and Grundy) and mediums/smalls (Rampe, Smith, McVeigh, Lloyd, O'Riordan).

I've already named more than 22 players and haven't mentioned the likes of Hewett, Cunningham, Florent, McCartin, Jack, Thurlow... I really feel like there is a lot to like about this list and it's potential for performance in 2019, but also continued improvement in to the 2020s. We will lose a few players over the next few years but it feels like other than Buddy and Kennedy the replacements for them are already in the squad and are already contributing.

Will Reid actually get on the park?

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[caesar88]

Gee I dunno about that. All I heard all year is how talented our players are, how we should be a monty for the flag and how Horse is the one holding us back.

The last time champion data released similar data we were ranked first for 2018 with the most elite players.

Yep champion data is rubbish IMO. So Essendon with their young up and coming list are widely expected to do well but the Swans with their young up and coming list are going down. These stat people and journos have no ******** idea

 

[swansfan51]

Yep champion data is rubbish IMO. So Essendon with their young up and coming list are widely expected to do well but the Swans with their young up and coming list are going down. These stat people and journos have no ******** idea

Drug cheats' top 10 players:

Devon Smith - 25
Dyson Heppell - 26
Zach Merrett - 23
Adam Saad - 24
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - 25
Tom Bellchambers - 29
Michael Hurley - 28
Cale Hooker - 30
Conor McKenna - 22
Brendon Goddard - N/A

Swans' top 10 players

Jake Lloyd - 25
Luke Parker - 26
Lance Franklin - 31
Isaac Heeney - 22
Josh Kennedy - 30
Dane Rampe - 28
George Hewett - 22
Jarrad McVeigh - 33
Callum Sinclair - 29
Harry Cunningham - 24

Not much difference in age profile

 

[caesar88]

Ted, I don't think anybody thinks the sky is falling, I think you're getting OT from my original point

I expect us to feature in the finals again next year comfortably, and we should be aiming to be top 4 and a premiership contender.

However, the game plan that was used this year was outdated and needs adjusting in 2019, Longmire himself has conceded this. I don't see why its such a big deal when this is highlighted by media pundits. They don't always get it right, but in this case their analysis appears to be pretty reasonable

Because that’s not why that pundit expects us to slide. He didn’t once mention our game plan or structures. All he talked about was personnel, implying that the youth which occupies the majority of our team is not good enough to see us as a contender, while in the same article raving about Essendon’s chances because of their youth. Youth which is less proven than ours. So nothing but pure hypothesizing.

 

[caesar88]

Drug cheats' top 10 players:

Devon Smith - 25
Dyson Heppell - 26
Zach Merrett - 23
Adam Saad - 24
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - 25
Tom Bellchambers - 29
Michael Hurley - 28
Cale Hooker - 30
Conor McKenna - 22
Brendon Goddard - N/A

Swans' top 10 players

Jake Lloyd - 25
Luke Parker - 26
Lance Franklin - 31
Isaac Heeney - 22
Josh Kennedy - 30
Dane Rampe - 28
George Hewett - 22
Jarrad McVeigh - 33
Callum Sinclair - 29
Harry Cunningham - 24

Not much difference in age profile

Exactly.......

 

[The Gong]

No place for Reg?

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I straight up love Reg and didn't think his form warranted getting dropped but if we're going to make tough calls then I think we need to develop Melican and Aliir in those KPD roles.

 

[Caj]

Because that’s not why that pundit expects us to slide. He didn’t once mention our game plan or structures. All he talked about was personnel, implying that the youth which occupies the majority of our team is not good enough to see us as a contender, while in the same article raving about Essendon’s chances because of their youth. Youth which is less proven than ours. So nothing but pure hypothesizing.

Think you're mixed up, Dal Santo's article was all about game style, I'm not even sure he predicted us to slide

The Champion Data article referred to above is the one that predicts us sliding and Bombers rising based purely on statistics

 

[Tedeski]

Ted, I don't think anybody thinks the sky is falling, I think you're getting OT from my original point

I expect us to feature in the finals again next year comfortably, and we should be aiming to be top 4 and a premiership contender.

However, the game plan that was used this year was outdated and needs adjusting in 2019, Longmire himself has conceded this. I don't see why its such a big deal when this is highlighted by media pundits. They don't always get it right, but in this case their analysis appears to be pretty reasonable

All good Caj. I know what you mean but I'm just saying that even with an "outdated game plan", we managed to beat both Grand Finalists & the premiers twice, & only lost 2 games interstate & just missed 4th spot.
Even after winning a flag, a team needs to tweak game plans but the fundamentals of or game plan, which is defence, will never change, so they are out of touch with what we are about, rather than, we are out of touch with what it's the game is all about.

The main tweaks we will do to our game plan from 2018 will be the addition of 4 "new faces" for 2019. Mills, Naismith, Reid & Melican.
The rest will just be icing on the cake.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Relying on Reid...heard this one before

 

[The Gong]

Relying on Reid...heard this one before

One thing I noticed in the player season review videos was how often it was mentioned that they had to play players out of position to cover the loss of Reid. He's obviously pretty crucial to team structure which is a worry. If Naismith takes first ruck then it might be a chance for Sinkers to claim Reid's spot if he can't get on the park and maintain a proper 1st and 2nd ruck rotation.

 

[Caj]

One thing I noticed in the player season review videos was how often it was mentioned that they had to play players out of position to cover the loss of Reid. He's obviously pretty crucial to team structure which is a worry. If Naismith takes first ruck then it might be a chance for Sinkers to claim Reid's spot if he can't get on the park and maintain a proper 1st and 2nd ruck rotation.

Spot on, structurally he's our most important player by a mile.

Hopefully McCartin can continue his improvement this year as he's the closest we've got to a like for like replacement.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Spot on, structurally he's our most important player by a mile.

Hopefully McCartin can continue his improvement this year as he's the closest we've got to a like for like replacement.

That’s a huge issue with gameplan if one of our most structurally important players is one of our most injury prone. That’s on the coach.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

That’s a huge issue with gameplan if one of our most structurally important players is one of our most injury prone. That’s on the coach.

You have inherited the player. You try to use what you have on hand. Said player breaks down. What more can you do? Not use him? Give up?

If he didn't rely on Reid then we'd all be complainjng he's misusing him when he's fit. It's a lose/lose when it comes toHorse around here sometimes. He's copping a whack no matter what he does.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

You have inherited the player. You try to use what you have on hand. Said player breaks down. What more can you do? Not use him? Give up?

If he didn't rely on Reid then we'd all be complainjng he's misusing him when he's fit. It's a lose/lose when it comes toHorse around here sometimes. He's copping a whack no matter what he does.

Exactly. But it wasn't just Reid. His loss was exacerbated by the absence of Tippet and Sinclair (who had to play ruck) so his role was left to a kid, who performed admirably, but was nevertheless a kid. Reid is the best, but it's not as if there aren't others to play the role. You just don't need 3 talls to go down at once.

 

[Wolftone]

I straight up love Reg and didn't think his form warranted getting dropped but if we're going to make tough calls then I think we need to develop Melican and Aliir in those KPD roles.

I still think every player has to earn it. Love both Pelican and Aliir but Reg is the rock down there. He will hand over slowly this year I think. Can't see him going beyond 2019

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[LukeParkerno1]

You have inherited the player. You try to use what you have on hand. Said player breaks down. What more can you do? Not use him? Give up?

If he didn't rely on Reid then we'd all be complainjng he's misusing him when he's fit. It's a lose/lose when it comes toHorse around here sometimes. He's copping a whack no matter what he does.

Probably should have moved him on while he had value but that’s a minor point now. Firmly belive we need to structure our gameplan that doesn’t involve bombing it to contests. It doesn’t suit Franklin who is our bonafide star

 

[Tedeski]

I still think every player has to earn it. Love both Pelican and Aliir but Reg is the rock down there. He will hand over slowly this year I think. Can't see him going beyond 2019

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No one actually knows.
Reg may be AA for the next two years. Macca was done after the 2016 GF apparently. s**t happens to these people through out the year. It is what it is. If all our senior blokes fall off the cliff by round 6 then so be it, we'll have a s**t load of cap space for 2020 & some valuable experience would have been put into our young bloke while we finish bottom 4, allowing us to gain a top 5 pick in next year's draft.

Shake the tree I say!

 

[The Gong]

I still think every player has to earn it. Love both Pelican and Aliir but Reg is the rock down there. He will hand over slowly this year I think. Can't see him going beyond 2019

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I also love how Reg and Rampe work as a team. Having said that Aliir has earned a first 22 spot (despite my opinion about his defensive fundmentals) and, before the injury, Melican was also rock solid.

Either way I really want to see Rampe play the third tall/rebounding role again. It was frustrating seeing him have to be played as a KPD.

 

[connolly]

Drug cheats' top 10 players:

Devon Smith - 25
Dyson Heppell - 26
Zach Merrett - 23
Adam Saad - 24
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - 25
Tom Bellchambers - 29
Michael Hurley - 28
Cale Hooker - 30
Conor McKenna - 22
Brendon Goddard - N/A

Swans' top 10 players

Jake Lloyd - 25
Luke Parker - 26
Lance Franklin - 31
Isaac Heeney - 22
Josh Kennedy - 30
Dane Rampe - 28
George Hewett - 22
Jarrad McVeigh - 33
Callum Sinclair - 29
Harry Cunningham - 24

Not much difference in age profile

One quibble. McVeigh is not top 10. Aliir is. Brings down the age profile also.

 

[connolly]

I still think every player has to earn it. Love both Pelican and Aliir but Reg is the rock down there. He will hand over slowly this year I think. Can't see him going beyond 2019

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Grundy is not only in a very dim twilight of a career but he has been effectively umpired out of the game. No more blocking or rocking. Aliir is ranked statistically as the best one on one and intercepting defender in the game.

 

[connolly]

No one actually knows.
Reg may be AA for the next two years. Macca was done after the 2016 GF apparently. s**t happens to these people through out the year. It is what it is. If all our senior blokes fall off the cliff by round 6 then so be it, we'll have a s**t load of cap space for 2020 & some valuable experience would have been put into our young bloke while we finish bottom 4, allowing us to gain a top 5 pick in next year's draft.

Shake the tree I say!

Don't we have one of the best spine's in the comp? Rampe, Aliir, Kennedy, Franklin and Sinclar. That's three AA"s and a potential AA. So aren't we on the cusp of a flag next year?

 

[swansfan51]

One quibble. McVeigh is not top 10. Aliir is. Brings down the age profile also.

That's our top 10 players according to the coaches