Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

bungee

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I agree with you about 2019. I don't see us in a GF either. I still think our list has far more talent than 2016. Several of those senior players you talked about were well and truly cooked in 2016. We had Richards as our back up for Reid, a third tall at best and a lazy footballer. I have just been watching 2016 games and his work rate was woeful.

Talent wise I think this list is streets ahead of 2016. We have offloaded the fringe players and drafted far better talent. The trades are all top 20 draft picks so had obvious talent to start with and just need to develop that talent. I'm not saying it is ready, what I am saying is that talent wise it bat's far deeper the 2016.

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Wolfie, we can agree that the talent is laid down but not ready yet. Like unripened cheese or young wine it needs to mature before its full potential can be realised, but it's going to be one hell of a picnic. I'll bring the crackers.
 

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bungee

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I agree totally. I think the modern game is about endurance. Flexibility is not necessarily the mainstay it is just a tool some coaches think will give them advantage. It works sometimes and sometimes not. Before Paps went into the mids he kicked 29 in his first year, 30 in his second and could have kicked far more if it weren't for stints in the mids. In 2018 he kicked 24.

I'd hate to see the back-line treated the same way as the forward-line. We would end up being anhiliated. Think of this thinking 'We need flexibility in the backs, let me see, Reid to FB, Reg to FF, Smithy to FP, Hayward to BP' now that looks good says Horse.

Of course we would not do that so why do it to a potentially incredibly dangerous forward-line?

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I think it was mostly done out of necessity. We needed to rotate players to fill holes of talent or experience. Forwards became rucks, mids went forward, forwards went through the mids etc. Some flexibility is always useful, such as resting mids or rucks being able to kick goals, forwards pinch hitting in ruck, mids being able to run both ways to help out in defence or even being able to swing an extra tall into defence when needed.
 

bungee

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Ironically WC were knocked by some commentators for being too old school. First Hawks were seen as the model to copy, then Dogs, until they disappeared, then Richmond became the model to copy then....well, seems Wcv are trendy again. Every GF winning team is analysed, scutinised and eventually pulverised if they fail to keep continuously innovating. Just like in business successful coaches adopt and adapt only aspects of others' games that can make them more effective. They generally write their own rule books and they make change a continuous process, so incremental that it's often imperceptible to outsiders.
 

connolly

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I disagree Wolfie. We've lost an enormous amount of experience since 2016 and some of our older players have a reduced output. We're coming towards the end of a period of transition where we've turned over much of our list in the last 2 years as the generation that took us to three GFs makes way for the next.

After a 2016 when we didn't do much wrong at all and were unlucky to lose the GF the myth developed that we only needed to change our playing style to win the 2017 and 2018 GFs. Somehow the complete rejuvenation of our list, sufficient to send most teams well out of the eight, has been whitewashed out of the discussion. It's like losing two wheels of a race car and blaming the driver.

As for depth, our run of key personnel injuries over the last couple of years showed how little depth we had. Our only fully fit tall forward was also the youngest guy in the comp. He played a full season when he should by rights have managed one or two games at best. The supporting cast of forwards weren't much older. We played Parker forward for much of the year despite our lack of midfield depth as we simply needed the experience in the forward line. Buddy was struggling to simply get up for a game and the pressure on him told in the end.
With Parker forward we ran guys like Papley and Hayward through the middle to help Kennedy and co. who were already disadvantaged by our number one ruck being held by an under-sized Sinclair, borrowed from his position as a tall forward to prop up the hole Sinclair left. We spent the last two years and 2018 in particular robbing Peter to pay Paul, such were the holes in our depth. Defence didn't fair much better. Rampe, Smith, Melican. Mills and Grundy all were unavailable for periods during the past couple of years so we played inexperienced guys like O'Riordan or pushed Heeney back to cover hole in our defence.

Does that mean we now have lots of depth ? No, not yet, it means we now have better depth than we could have reasonably expected two years into a rebuild. Guys like McCartin, Stoddart, O'Riordan, Dawson are still young and raw. Thurlow and Clarke new to our system. Our depth players need more games and more experience before they are genuinely able to contribute, though McCartin may be a happy exception if his development continues apace.

I do agree with you that we have a good group of talented players. I think our recruiter have done a marvellous job this year. They haven't panicked and thrown away big bucks trying to fill holes in our list but have stuck with their guns to carefully built a list that should see us very well placed in terms of experience, talent and youth in the every near future.

Is that future now ? In all honesty I think a 2019 GF appearance is a long shot given there are other teams better poised list wise than we are at present but certainly a top four finish is possible and will give our young players even more finals experience. Don't forget that despite everything that was thrown at us in 2018 we finished just one win away from a top four finish and had the best record of any team against the other top 8 teams. Had Buddy been able to play in the last round of the H&A he may have been the difference. Sadly though, Buddy was cooked and was unable to have any further impact for 2018.

The final pieces of the Swans generational transformation will come when the last of 2012 retire, perhaps with a couple of exceptions. Come 2020 onwards I see us entering a real purple patch. Our list will be approaching a peak age/experience profile and our depth should be solid. Then we can judge whether our team is performing to its full potential.
Just a question. Does the last of the 2012 generation retirement include Longmire? He is still coaching that game.
 

connolly

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First point. We outplayed just about everyone in 2016 but factors like injuries and umpiring went against us in the end. Getting to a GF is the hardest bit. The teams you mentioned didn't even get there. As for struggling against Essendon in 2017 ?? We squeaked home once and we wiped them off the planet in the second encounter. Besides, you get to the big dance by beating most other teams, not every other team. And you only have to beat them by a single point to get the four. Somehow that offends you ? Any kind of win is a win.

2nd & 3rd- Stop attributing thought to Horse that you think he has. These guys are way ahead of the curve. Playing finals for 20 of the last 23 years is not a fluke. Don't try suggesting that the game's only changed in the last few years. It's always been evolving. We've managed again to rebuild on the fly. That takes skill. You play the game that has the best chance of getting a win from the cattle you have on the park. The Swans did that. Their game style changed throughout the year as available personnel changed. Players were moveed around to cover each other. They did every trick in the book to stay competitive and they succeeded.

4th - Your devotion to Aliir is touching but also rather blind. He had a lot of talented tricks but he also had some shocker games where the opposition worked out how to play him. He's become a better team player and a better indivdual player and will continue to get better if he adds more strings to his bow. Get rid of this idea that he was somehow born the second coming. As for players being utilised out of position. That's what you do when you don't have the depth to cover injured players. You hobble together the best combination. You ask players to step outside their natural game because the team needs them to do it. You balance that compromise as best you can. Sometimes that throws up surprises.

5th. Richmond was the closest we had to a bogey team in 2018 but I'm confident we can beat them with a full compliment of players. They, like the wonderful Dogs, have yet to play more than one GF in recent memory. We beat every other team in the eight this year and remain the bogey team of West Coast and Melbourne despite Melbourne being the most attacking team in the comp in 2018. I don't think your perceptions match reality.

Perpetuate facts by all means but don't let your personal bias towards players or coaches flavour your thoughts.
The Suns? Stewie Dew??? Ring a bell????
 

connolly

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Any team can lose to another on their day. In 1995 Carlton, the best team in the league by a long way, was not just beaten but soundly thrashed by Sydney, the reigning spooners ! Your point ?
My point is you ignored Dew's game plan which was to put a high defensive line across our half back line and basically strangled our slow ball movement out of defense. To sharpen the point do you think that opposition coaches might be studying that game? But then again you are probably right and they are still ruminating on the Carlton defeat of 1995. Nothing to worry about. Your post is a strong contender for the Panglossian award of 2018.
 

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RUNVS

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Players lost the suns game after patting themselves on the back in the 1st Q & thinking their work was done. Game plan don’t mean much if the players overrate their chances and don’t put the work in. Humans are not machines as yet.
but that sort of culture starts from the top. Longmire has not instilled a killer instinct in the players. We have all seen the last year or two where the Swans are playing really well for the first quarter or first half and then, when they get 30 points up they take the foot off the pedal. Hawthorn or Geelong from a few years ago would have never have done that as they didn't just want to beat their opponents, they wanted to humiliate them. Longmire is content to just beat them, and when we get 30 points up he seems to think that is enough.
 

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but that sort of culture starts from the top. Longmire has not instilled a killer instinct in the players. We have all seen the last year or two where the Swans are playing really well for the first quarter or first half and then, when they get 30 points up they take the foot off the pedal. Hawthorn or Geelong from a few years ago would have never have done that as they didn't just want to beat their opponents, they wanted to humiliate them. Longmire is content to just beat them, and when we get 30 points up he seems to think that is enough.

It’s called Reidback disease
 

connolly

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Players lost the suns game after patting themselves on the back in the 1st Q & thinking their work was done. Game plan don’t mean much if the players overrate their chances and don’t put the work in. Humans are not machines as yet.
When Geelong thrashed this joke club by 85 points do you think Dangerfield raised a sweat? I would suggest every club approached a Suns (even their fake yank corporate logo name is a joke) game with something approaching over confidence. Something was different in this game. Dew knew Longmire's .game plan backwards and after the first quarter out coached him. Its a blueprint on how to beat a chip passing/ boundary hugging/ deep defensive game plan.
 

Wolftone

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Players lost the suns game after patting themselves on the back in the 1st Q & thinking their work was done. Game plan don’t mean much if the players overrate their chances and don’t put the work in. Humans are not machines as yet.

No, Dew countered everything we did and Longmire panicked. He went totally defensive, as Dew knew he would if they pushed up, and in doing so lost us the game.
 

RUNVS

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Lol! This thread typifies the Swans board!

Is there anyone on this board sitting on the fence re Longmire? Seems to me we've all taken sides and just can't see the other side... makes for very entertaining reading lol! :)
Longmire has been the Swans coach for 8 years now. I would be worried if someone had not made up their mind about him. 8 years is a big enough body of work to have a strong opinion on him.
 

Kirkswan

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Longmire has been the Swans coach for 8 years now. I would be worried if someone had not made up their mind about him. 8 years is a big enough body of work to have a strong opinion on him.
Really? I followed the Swans from 83 to 98 without caring much about who coached them... plenty of people do. Doesn't make them less of supporters, just not the same as us...
 

MarkP

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Was watching a game from 1996 on Fox last night. We played the druggies before they were stoned.

There was this guy, big fella, seemed to stay in the forward 50 a lot for us.

What we did was kick it to him in a 1 on 1 contest because he was ahead of the play.

He then took marks or won the contest and kicked goals.

It was amazeballs.
 

RUNVS

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