So the thing is when we play ugly it's generally because we're struggling, and that's how we stay in games when stuff isn't flowing well. We've been doing it since 2003, hanging in there and grinding out results we didn't deserve, mostly avoiding blowouts, and occasionally pinching games late after being outplayed. It's a way to get Ws where a lot of other clubs just don't.
The slow low risk stuff is not plan A, never has been. Wasn't in 2005-6, wasn't in 2012 to 2016. It was there though. It's what happens when they're not winning the ball and not moving the ball well. When that happens they stop taking so many risks, they set up expecting turnovers and they work to mitigate the damage from those turnovers, and the defense holds the line better than any other in the comp.
There's no reason to think 2019 will see such frequent issues with this as 2018 did, and even 2018 saw us beat every finalist except Richmond and walk into another finals series. If nothing else, we'll almost certainly have more of an actual tall structure to work with where last year we lost three best-22 talls before round 3 and scrambled all year to cover them.
Last year we were particularly cooked through the middle - conceded a lot more inside-50s than we got ourselves while actually being okay in forward efficiency (6th in goals per inside 50) and being the best in the league at defending opposition inside 50s. The issues started and were concentrated in the centre, which probably caught everyone by surprise. We won something like 8 games conceding more inside-50s than we got, where generally inside-50 balance is a good indicator of who wins.
Part of the issue was because of personnel. We had Hanners being a hobbled shell, and we had Heeney and Parker spending a lot of time forward as pretend forward targets given the injuries. The Mills injury also probably pulled Jones and Lloyd out of more midfield contribution. Inside ball dried up. Or, just as bad, inside ball wins were achieved by over-crowding the coalface and sacrificing having any outside ball movers left.
They spread the midfield load across a lot of the skinnier young flanker types (Hayward, Papley, Florent, Ronke) and it seemingly burned them out by the end. These guys might be good midfielders soon, but aren't yet built for a full season of the contested stuff - Hayward and Papley in particular both had a higher ratio of contested to uncontested possessions in 2018 vs 2017, which probably suggests they were pulled out of their comfort zones and not able to be as damaging as they might have been. Hayward went from having half as many contested touches as uncontested, to having 72% as many. Florent and Ronke could probably both have stood to be at the coalface a little less, too.
But, team needs demanded they all play a bit of a genuine midfield role at times. This undoubtedly led to the limp finish to the year, those guys all looked buggered by the end. BUT, the team did get a good look at how they might fit in, they all look like they'll cope eventually. And if they can stabilise this new broader midfield group a bit better, and get those other guys back in there a bit more, they should look a lot better elsewhere as a flow on effect of actually winning some ball.
We look like we will have a bunch of genuine goal scorers rotating through the midfield into the future, and it should make us more potent once they're all up to the task in a sustained way. I don't think we've had this level of natural small forward flair in quite a while, but there's almost too much to fit forward without giving them secondary roles. Especially if we want three talls too. Steve Johnson must be having fun.
The slow low risk stuff is not plan A, never has been. Wasn't in 2005-6, wasn't in 2012 to 2016. It was there though. It's what happens when they're not winning the ball and not moving the ball well. When that happens they stop taking so many risks, they set up expecting turnovers and they work to mitigate the damage from those turnovers, and the defense holds the line better than any other in the comp.
There's no reason to think 2019 will see such frequent issues with this as 2018 did, and even 2018 saw us beat every finalist except Richmond and walk into another finals series. If nothing else, we'll almost certainly have more of an actual tall structure to work with where last year we lost three best-22 talls before round 3 and scrambled all year to cover them.
Last year we were particularly cooked through the middle - conceded a lot more inside-50s than we got ourselves while actually being okay in forward efficiency (6th in goals per inside 50) and being the best in the league at defending opposition inside 50s. The issues started and were concentrated in the centre, which probably caught everyone by surprise. We won something like 8 games conceding more inside-50s than we got, where generally inside-50 balance is a good indicator of who wins.
Part of the issue was because of personnel. We had Hanners being a hobbled shell, and we had Heeney and Parker spending a lot of time forward as pretend forward targets given the injuries. The Mills injury also probably pulled Jones and Lloyd out of more midfield contribution. Inside ball dried up. Or, just as bad, inside ball wins were achieved by over-crowding the coalface and sacrificing having any outside ball movers left.
They spread the midfield load across a lot of the skinnier young flanker types (Hayward, Papley, Florent, Ronke) and it seemingly burned them out by the end. These guys might be good midfielders soon, but aren't yet built for a full season of the contested stuff - Hayward and Papley in particular both had a higher ratio of contested to uncontested possessions in 2018 vs 2017, which probably suggests they were pulled out of their comfort zones and not able to be as damaging as they might have been. Hayward went from having half as many contested touches as uncontested, to having 72% as many. Florent and Ronke could probably both have stood to be at the coalface a little less, too.
But, team needs demanded they all play a bit of a genuine midfield role at times. This undoubtedly led to the limp finish to the year, those guys all looked buggered by the end. BUT, the team did get a good look at how they might fit in, they all look like they'll cope eventually. And if they can stabilise this new broader midfield group a bit better, and get those other guys back in there a bit more, they should look a lot better elsewhere as a flow on effect of actually winning some ball.
We look like we will have a bunch of genuine goal scorers rotating through the midfield into the future, and it should make us more potent once they're all up to the task in a sustained way. I don't think we've had this level of natural small forward flair in quite a while, but there's almost too much to fit forward without giving them secondary roles. Especially if we want three talls too. Steve Johnson must be having fun.
Last edited: