Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion II

[Blue__Balls]

If GC want to trade up with us, the response is simple.

Delist Martin. Now. You ****ed him and us over during the trade period, and if you want us to come to the table you need to make that right.

Then. On draft night. IF there is no player available at 9 that we're absolutely wedded to. We'll trade 9 and chump change for 15 and 20. If there's a player we like, we're picking him though.

Gold Coast lose nothing by agreeing to those terms. Worst case scenario, they regain some measure of goodwill from us (we didn't lose any during trade period, they did). Best case scenario, they also trade up into the top 10.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Gold coast can get stuffed. I'd rather dangle 9 in front of Fremantle and Hawthorn and see what we can shake out of them under the provisio we don't bid on their academy players. For them, not having to bid means they effectively get to bundle multiple late picks for a top 15 player in the draft. They might be happy to throw us a juicy bone or two...either this year or next. We don't lose anything as we would get the same player anyway. That makes way more sense than dealing with the devil.

That's not true. Fremantle or Hawthorn could take the player we want after trading with us.

 

[HARKER]

If GC want to trade up with us, the response is simple.
Delist Martin. Now. You f’ed him and us over during the trade period, and if you want us to come to the table you need to make that right.
Then. On draft night. IF there is no player available at 9 that we're absolutely wedded to. We'll trade 9 and chump change for 15 and 20. If there's a player we like, we're picking him though.
Gold Coast lose nothing by agreeing to those terms. Worst case scenario, they regain some measure of goodwill from us (we didn't lose any during trade period, they did). Best case scenario, they also trade up into the top 10.

I have no idea which way it may well play out, but I have a pretty good idea that regardless of how upset we may have been with GC for being as 'tough' as they were, we wouldn't close the door on dealing with them in the future.
I just can't imagine Lloyd and Liddle wanting to play that game.....SOS maybe, but not LLoyd nor Liddle.

This sounds crazy on face value and I've said it before but not having the #9 may take us away from taking 'the best player available' and force our hand somewhat in taking the types we need.

i.e. No two drafts are alike but I would have been happy to forego O'Brien (#10) to attain Higgins (#17) and Tim Kelly (#24) in 2017

 

[FRUMPY]

This would be great but it just never seems to happen. I think the money playing in premier competitions around the state is far greater than VFL.

Definitely more money in local leagues than VFL and less training etc. That's why most ex AFL play local footy

 

[Jimmae]

My optimistic take, if we can favourably trade with Gold Coast:

15 - Kemp or Gould
20 - Sharp
37 - Riccardi
53 - Bryan
Late - best-projected running defender on the board

DFA - Newnes
PSD - Martin

Cat A - another running defender
Cat B - Wild

I'm not sure Kemp will make it past Hawthorn though.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I have no idea which way it may well play out, but I have a pretty good idea that regardless of how upset we may have been with GC for being as 'tough' as they were, we wouldn't close the door on dealing with them in the future.
I just can't imagine Lloyd and Liddle wanting to play that game.....SOS maybe, but not LLoyd nor Liddle.

This sounds crazy on face value and I've said it before but not having the #9 may take us away from taking 'the best player available' and force our hand somewhat in taking the types we need.

i.e. No two drafts are alike but I would have been happy to forego O'Brien (#10) to attain Higgins (#17) and Tim Kelly (#24) in 2017

Happy to trade down, but there is no reason not to take the opportunity to try and get GC to do the right thing and release Martin.

And then I'd still prefer we wait til draft night before signing off on a trade, would be pretty damn frustrating if someone like Flanders or Serong slipped to 9.

Cochrane and Co are the ones who decided to put their foot down. If they want to come back to us asking, pretty please, to trade up to 9, we absolutely should leverage their need and their recent bullshit to get what we want out of the deal. It's not about refusing to deal with them, it's about dictating terms.

 

[murphster]

Building goodwill so Gold Coast play nice when we try and land Rowell in a few years?

Come on Murph, no chance you really believe that.

Look it would never be easy especially with a player like Rowell, which was probably a bad example to use, my point was more around some other players that might look to move home, it would make them a lot easier to deal with if we left them with a face saving deal for Martin now than if we just leave it as it is and take him through the PSD.

 

[murphster]

Anyway enough speculation, I’d like to make a prediction for next year and that would be that Carlton win back to back Rising Stars as Liam Stocker bursts onto the scene as the best up an coming star midfielder, I honestly believe he is more than capable of doing it too and can’t wait to start getting some pre season training reports that say he is starring on the track after a huge off season running program and a lot of one on one work with Diesel.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Anyway enough speculation, I’d like to make a prediction for next year and that would be that Carlton win back to back Rising Stars as Liam Stocker bursts onto the scene as the best up an coming star midfielder, I honestly believe he is more than capable of doing it too and can’t wait to start getting some pre season training reports that say he is starring on the track after a huge off season running program and a lot of one on one work with Diesel.

Would love for it to happen, but I think he might struggle to have the required impact with Cripps, Walsh, Murphy, Curnow, Setterfield etc. all carrying a fair bit of the midfield load.

Pencil in Rowell now. Not saying he won't deserve it - he's a highly professional ball magnet - but he'll have more responsibility in Gold Coast's undermanned midfield group next season, and it's hard to see Gil not influencing things if necessary to ensure GC get some more recognition.

 

[Foucault1989]

That's not true. Fremantle or Hawthorn could take the player we want after trading with us.

Good point.

 

[Foucault1989]

My optimistic take, if we can favourably trade with Gold Coast:

15 - Kemp or Gould
20 - Sharp
37 - Riccardi
53 - Bryan
Late - best-projected running defender on the board

DFA - Newnes
PSD - Martin

Cat A - another running defender
Cat B - Wild

I'm not sure Kemp will make it past Hawthorn though.

I'm surprised you're into Gould Jim. I would have thought you'd have concerns about his fitness and aerobic capacity.

 

[Jimmae]

I'm surprised you're into Gould Jim. I would have thought you'd have concerns about his fitness and aerobic capacity.

He's a former state-level sprinter, just needs to have a little less on his plate for a bit. Was 95 kgs in pre-season, supposedly measured at 105 kgs at the combine. Just naturally packs on a lot of muscle, so the rest now is conditioning. Plays games out well enough too, I mean they didn't make him captain of SA for nothing.

You can see that he plays faster and is more agile than his testing suggests. Threw everything into his footy season, and likely quite sore by the time the combine rolled around.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't see the issue with doing a trade with GC.

Sure, we COULD tell them to go **** themselves, but I don't see why we can't throw them scraps now.

GC wanted a 1st rounder and value at ~pick 15, we wanted presumably ~25+ and not so keen on 1st rounder. We could give them something worth 40+ and basically a win-win at this point. GC save face. They get something for Martin. We end up with a much better deal than was mooted and we lock in Martin (DFA) without any more hiccups.

Eg 9 and 2020 2nd for 15 & 20. Even if we finished last, and there were no bidding, we would be paying ~pick 43 for Martin. More likely our 2020 2nd rounder is late 20s (including bids) and we end up handing over equivalent of a pick in the 60s for Martin. Cheap as!

If you would allow a poor analogy. Say two parents are fighting for equal custody (3.5 days a week) of the kids. The judge says dad can have them for 7 days if he wants. He was happy with 3.5 and now has the chance to cut the ex-wife off forever. He can do that OR he can say 'How about I take weekdays, ex-wife can have weekends'. He is magnanimous but still walks away more than he wanted.

 

[Foucault1989]

He's a former state-level sprinter, just needs to have a little less on his plate for a bit. Was 95 kgs in pre-season, supposedly measured at 105 kgs at the combine. Just naturally packs on a lot of muscle, so the rest now is conditioning. Plays games out well enough too, I mean they didn't make him captain of SA for nothing.

You can see that he plays faster and is more agile than his testing suggests. Threw everything into his footy season, and likely quite sore by the time the combine rolled around.

Good analysis. I certainly agree with you and think his combine results are misleading. For me, he looks like a natural footballer who could play anywhere. He has attributes that you simply cannot teach, such as awareness, clever use of body, skills and leadership. He is a ready made footballer who would make a valuable contribution from day one. Whether or not he had a higher ceiling than some more physically under developed draftees is worthy of debate but if we slid to 15 and drafted Gould I'd be happy

 

[murphster]

I don't see the issue with doing a trade with GC.

Sure, we COULD tell them to go **** themselves, but I don't see why we can't throw them scraps now.

GC wanted a 1st rounder and value at ~pick 15, we wanted presumably ~25+ and not so keen on 1st rounder. We could give them something worth 40+ and basically a win-win at this point. GC save face. They get something for Martin. We end up with a much better deal than was mooted and we lock in Martin (DFA) without any more hiccups.

Eg 9 and 2020 2nd for 15 & 20. Even if we finished last, and there were no bidding, we would be paying ~pick 43 for Martin. More likely our 2020 2nd rounder is late 20s (including bids) and we end up handing over equivalent of a pick in the 60s for Martin. Cheap as!

If you would allow a poor analogy. Say two parents are fighting for equal custody (3.5 days a week) of the kids. The judge says dad can have them for 7 days if he wants. He was happy with 3.5 and now has the chance to cut the ex-wife off forever. He can do that OR he can say 'How about I take weekdays, ex-wife can have weekends'. He is magnanimous but still walks away more than he wanted.

What world is this judge from giving the father custody, bizzaro world, would never happen in Australian family courts. Just saying

 

[Wickzki]

What world is this judge from giving the father custody, bizzaro world, would never happen in Australian family courts. Just saying

I've seen a case here where the stepfather was awarded permanent custody over the biological mother.

It happens.

 

[murphster]

I've seen a case here where the stepfather was awarded permanent custody over the biological mother.

It happens.

What was the mother an axe murderer.

 

[therubbernub]

I think that the CFC would like for Martin to know that everything is OK about him getting to us, sooner than later.
I'd be very surprised should we or even GC now wish engage in a war of wills.

Martin aside, I'm now leaning towards selling off our pick #9 for #15 and #20 regardless and it me even be fair for GC to ask for a little more.
Don't you think?

The scenario I put forward makes sense to me for all the reasons outlined.
It may well not come to be, but I can see why the 'greater powers' would like to see it come about.

EDIT: Yes Red Bull GC do the 'right thing' we do the 'right thing' and the AFL are all smiles.

the 9 for 15 and 20 seems to be a deal we would have done a few years ago- when we had a real need to rebuild via sheer numbers. Now, we are in list hole plugging mode, and as such we should keep the #9 so as to maximise our chances of drafting someone we really need. If there s no one left that fullfills that criteria at #9 we should consider another live trade.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Anyway enough speculation, I’d like to make a prediction for next year and that would be that Carlton win back to back Rising Stars as Liam Stocker bursts onto the scene as the best up an coming star midfielder, I honestly believe he is more than capable of doing it too and can’t wait to start getting some pre season training reports that say he is starring on the track after a huge off season running program and a lot of one on one work with Diesel.

Would love for it to happen, but I think he might struggle to have the required impact with Cripps, Walsh, Murphy, Curnow, Setterfield etc. all carrying a fair bit of the midfield load.

Pencil in Rowell now. Not saying he won't deserve it - he's a highly professional ball magnet - but he'll have more responsibility in Gold Coast's undermanned midfield group next season, and it's hard to see Gil not influencing things if necessary to ensure GC get some more recognition.

Rankine
Stocker

Daylight

Rowell

 

[checkpoints]

Would Archie Smith from Brisbane be worth a look? Just delisted. Could be good ruck depth

 

[Jeremias]

Would Archie Smith from Brisbane be worth a look? Just delisted. Could be good ruck depth

I don't see why we need a fourth ruck on the list.

Kreuzer, Pittonet and TDK should be more than enough for 2020.

 

[ferrisb]

I don't see why we need a fourth ruck on the list.

Kreuzer, Pittonet and TDK should be more than enough for 2020.

First time in years we've had ruck balance on the list.

Don't **** it up!

 

[AT97]

Would Archie Smith from Brisbane be worth a look? Just delisted. Could be good ruck depth

pretty Sure I heard Archie moved away from footy as he has been offered a position in banking.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

My optimistic take, if we can favourably trade with Gold Coast:

15 - Kemp or Gould
20 - Sharp
37 - Riccardi
53 - Bryan
Late - best-projected running defender on the board

DFA - Newnes
PSD - Martin

Cat A - another running defender
Cat B - Wild

I'm not sure Kemp will make it past Hawthorn though.

I could live with Gould or Kemp at 15, but I’d be unhappy with Sharp at 20.

I don’t see him being anything other than an unaccountable HBF type at senior level IMO.

 

[AT97]

pretty Sure I heard Archie moved away from footy as he has been offered a position in banking.

Just read he is looking for a new gig as a free agent. obviously must have been a hearing about a different player and banking.