Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[windows1]

He's an 18 yr old vs huge guys who have been in the system for years.

Any1 could pop his shoulder, remember murph in his first year.
I think he will be okay, but not AFL standards. Sounds harsh but it's probably the truth.

If the midfield was cripps Kennedy SPS Dow Curnow Setterfield and fisher i would be over the moon.

You still think this? Go watch him.

 

[windows1]

Think he is trying to say something like this.

Walsh will collect 15 possessions in the midfield next year while his opponent will collect it 30 times. If Walsh gets it 20 times then his opponent gets it 35 times. You get the picture.

Walsh will be a good player but in 2019, will have little or negative impact on outcomes. That sounds negative but it is more reality of a first year mid.

I'm sure GoBlue is a fan of Walsh like me...we just have to wait 2-3 years to see the real deal on show.

This is utter crap. It’s really important people get their head around what happens in midfields. Take the much vaunted Pies midfield of 2018.

they had the grand total of FOUR regular mids who averaged more than 20 possessions a game. FOUR.

At the moment ONE or maybe TWO of their mids would keep up with Walsh in any kind of running contest.

Are you saying that he’s not as good as their fifth best mid? Sier? Would you rather Sier in round one than Walsh? What about their 6th best? Aish? I’m not bagging these players. I’m pointing out that MOST mids do not get that much of the footy. Yet everyone acknowledges you need a lot of them going through midfield to keep them fresh. I will put any amount of money that Walsh will average more than 20 a game this year and would be good enough to earn his spot on his merit in any club in the country. EASILY.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

The first one does not have blistering pace, the second doesn't have the disposal or decision making, the third is too lazy and the fourth might not accept the "lesser" role.

Fine players, but neither is a running line breaker.

There is so much wrong with this post I wouldn't know where to begin.

 

[Laphroaig]

Speed is not only about leg speed. It’s about smarts and ball use.

Garbage.

Smarts and ball use are contributors to ball movement.

So is leg speed a contributor. And a side that doesn't have a few genuinely fast players is missing a key weapon in the arsenal.

You know why running bounces is a heavily watched stat? Because guys with the pace to break open defensive systems by sheer pace are highly valued.

There is so much wrong with this post I wouldn't know where to begin.

Try extending yourself.

 

[Soapy V]

Garbage.

Smarts and ball use are contributors to ball movement.

So is leg speed a contributor. And a side that doesn't have a few genuinely fast players is missing a key weapon in the arsenal.

You know why running bounces is a heavily watched stat? Because guys with the pace to break open defensive systems by sheer pace are highly valued.




Try extending yourself.

Nope.

 

[windows1]

For those of you who've watched a fair bit of Kym LeBois ply his trade at the Northern Blues over the last couple of years, where do you see he's at with his footy???

View attachment 599479

The thing that surprised me was how easily LeBois fell off his opponent (Simmo) during the match sims. None of these matches lasted more than 10-15 minutes tops and it wasn't as though the ball spent much time in the Orange Teams front half, so fatigue was unlikely to be a factor.

View attachment 599480

He's gone from being in a position to stick a tackle to leaving it to someone else, in this case SOSOS had just who competed with mark against Jones. Granted Simmo is no slouch and has always had a nice turn of foot, but he's hardly greased lightning these days.

View attachment 599481

LeBois has really fallen away to the point where he's almost out of frame here and in the next shot you won't see him at all. I'm not sure that I see a person with the urgency in his game to make it as an AFL player. This wasn't the only time I noticed this, but it just happened to be the one I caught on camera. Let's hope he can step it up because a quality small forward that can apply defensive pressure while impacting the scoreboard is something we desperately need.

View attachment 599482

Anyway, just some more rambling preseason observations. Will be interested to see if people notice anything else that looks out of place in these shots.

He can’t run. Willo buried him that day in the few 200s they did together. He’s one I just don’t get. But hope I’m wrong about.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

This is utter crap. It’s really important people get their head around what happens in midfields. Take the much vaunted Pies midfield of 2018.

they had the grand total of FOUR regular mids who averaged more than 20 possessions a game. FOUR.

At the moment ONE or maybe TWO of their mids would keep up with Walsh in any kind of running contest.

Are you saying that he’s not as good as their fifth best mid? Sier? Would you rather Sier in round one than Walsh? What about their 6th best? Aish? I’m not bagging these players. I’m pointing out that MOST mids do not get that much of the footy. Yet everyone acknowledges you need a lot of them going through midfield to keep them fresh. I will put any amount of money that Walsh will average more than 20 a game this year and would be good enough to earn his spot on his merit in any club in the country. EASILY.

Keep in context for discussion windows

We are discussing the impact of a 'first year' high pick and their impact in that first year. Not career. My point is that the impact will in most cases be quite low. Especially in a weak team.

In 2018, Dow averaged 14.2 possessions 'in his first year'. Against Collingwood, we are asking him to compete against some of the following:

Sidebottom: 29.4
Treloar: 29.5
T Adams: 27
Pendles: 26.8
Sier: 19

He loses against them all. Not fair but that is what Dow had to compete against when we talk about winning games.

Another of our high picks SPS (in his first year) averaged 14 possessions too. Again, lower than all opposition mids.

My point is despite the hype and despite that Walsh will turn out a gun in future years, his first year output based on history is probably going to be low impact with a few highlights. Anything wrong with saying that?

If we then go a bit further and look at disposal efficiency comparisons we know first year high draft picks struggle in first year and pick up over the coming years. So Dow and SPSs possessions are usually less accurate than a mature midfield. Common sense.

 

[windows1]

Keep in context for discussion windows

We are discussing the impact of a 'first year' high pick and their impact in that first year. Not career. My point is that the impact will in most cases be quite low. Especially in a weak team.

In 2018, Dow averaged 14.2 possessions 'in his first year'. Against Collingwood, we are asking him to compete against some of the following:

Sidebottom: 29.4
Treloar: 29.5
T Adams: 27
Pendles: 26.8
Sier: 19

He loses against them all. Not fair but that is what Dow had to compete against when we talk about winning games.

Another of our high picks SPS (in his first year) averaged 14 possessions too. Again, lower than all opposition mids.

My point is despite the hype and despite that Walsh will turn out a gun in future years, his first year output based on history is probably going to be low impact with a few highlights. Anything wrong with saying that?

If we then go a bit further and look at disposal efficiency comparisons we know first year high draft picks struggle in first year and pick up over the coming years. So Dow and SPSs possessions are usually less accurate than a mature midfield. Common sense.

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

*MIKE DROP* …. I'm out!

 

[TooBlue14]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

🖐

 

[katmanblue]

Pickett is our man if he can get a run at it.

I think we need to assume he won't and plan accordingly. If he does, that's just gravy.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[katmanblue]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Arr0w]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

Walsh will be a beauty, but I doubt he will average 20 disposals a game in his first year, in a bottom 6 club

Great runners like Sidebottom took 4 seasons before achieving that and they had similar running capacities as juniors

McGrath, that had an outstanding first year with Essendon (in a stronger side than us), came close to that mark, but still fell short

 

[goBlue]

This is utter crap. It’s really important people get their head around what happens in midfields. Take the much vaunted Pies midfield of 2018.

they had the grand total of FOUR regular mids who averaged more than 20 possessions a game. FOUR.

At the moment ONE or maybe TWO of their mids would keep up with Walsh in any kind of running contest.

Are you saying that he’s not as good as their fifth best mid? Sier? Would you rather Sier in round one than Walsh? What about their 6th best? Aish? I’m not bagging these players. I’m pointing out that MOST mids do not get that much of the footy. Yet everyone acknowledges you need a lot of them going through midfield to keep them fresh. I will put any amount of money that Walsh will average more than 20 a game this year and would be good enough to earn his spot on his merit in any club in the country. EASILY.

Ok we will see by the end of the year.

 

[goBlue]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

I dont believe that Walsh is killing SPS and Dow. If your saying he is gonna get over 20 possesions COMFORTABLY do you think he could get like 24-possessions a game.I just want to know how good you think this guy is
However, I could be wrong, I'm hoping that SPS has a breakout season and Dow gets to 20 possessions a game.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Look I’m in context. The context is WALSH and I dare say you’ve seen nothing of him. To compare him to Dow or SPS suggests same. He’s NOT them. He’s Sam Walsh. The first and incomparable. He will get over 20 a game COMFORTABLY. He would put Dow and SPS in hospital in a run. Even now given he’s doing 3/4 of the preseason and they are on to their second and third. He’s kill them. He’s a better player than both of them already. I’m not talking future. I’m talking now. Adjust your expectations. Enjoy. Cheers. Thanks. Bye.

Hope you are right windows1.

Walshy looks like smashing Judd's first year by some distance.

 

[windows1]

Walsh will be a beauty, but I doubt he will average 20 disposals a game in his first year, in a bottom 6 club

Great runners like Sidebottom took 4 seasons before achieving that and they had similar running capacities as juniors

McGrath, that had an outstanding first year with Essendon (in a stronger side than us), came close to that mark, but still fell short

You can doubt all you want but you’re wrong. He will get 20 a game easily. Walsh would beat Sidey in a run now. Let alone 18 year old Sidey. 18 year old Sidey ran a 14.5 beep and a 10’30” 3km. They were good for his age but not good compared to Walsh. Sidey was also horrifically slow off the mark (over 3.1 for 20) and took a long while before they trusted him to play on ball. McGrath didn’t play on ball. Walsh will start in the centre square in round 1 and stay there for the year.

 

[windows1]

I dont believe that Walsh is killing SPS and Dow. If your saying he is gonna get over 20 possesions COMFORTABLY do you think he could get like 24-possessions a game.I just want to know how good you think this guy is
However, I could be wrong, I'm hoping that SPS has a breakout season and Dow gets to 20 possessions a game.

I think this guy is the best mover/runner we’ve ever had and I include Craig Bradley. His kicking needs a little cleaning up but other than that he’s a superstar. He’s so ready to go it’s incrsdible. He is desperate to do extras every session - in other words: the sessions aren’t hurting him. He’s not like every other early pick we’ve had. Murph and Gibbs couldn’t break 12 minutes for Optus when they got here. I reckon Walsh would go close to cracking 10. I’m not saying this stuff for effect or to be controversial. It’s what I see. He reads the play brilliantly. He gets to a million contests. He may not be ‘big’ but he is already ‘body strong’ and won’t be knocked around. He’s extremely different this kid. I see 22/23 a game no problem. Play every game won’t need rests. No problem.

 

[goBlue]

I think this guy is the best mover/runner we’ve ever had and I include Craig Bradley. His kicking needs a little cleaning up but other than that he’s a superstar. He’s so ready to go it’s incrsdible. He is desperate to do extras every session - in other words: the sessions aren’t hurting him. He’s not like every other early pick we’ve had. Murph and Gibbs couldn’t break 12 minutes for Optus when they got here. I reckon Walsh would go close to cracking 10. I’m not saying this stuff for effect or to be controversial. It’s what I see. He reads the play brilliantly. He gets to a million contests. He may not be ‘big’ but he is already ‘body strong’ and won’t be knocked around. He’s extremely different this kid. I see 22/23 a game no problem. Play every game won’t need rests. No problem.

Sounds really good, I hope he does get the 22/23 per game. Would be massive for a first season!!

 

[Zatoichi Blue]

Not a very productive truck by the looks of it.

Hate to OVER-pump up Walshy's tyres so early on.

His tyes don't need pumping atm.

Let him do his thing, and probably debut Rd 1 (great effort).

Let him adjust from TAC dominance to AFL pressure/tackles/gut chasing/2-3 repaet pressure acts/getting targeted by opponents every chance they get

Then we can all celebrate him and jump on board the ride Carlton is on.

s**t. To play every game, avarage 20+ possessions and make both Dow and SPS look second-rate.....

Ease up on the psi pleaeesseee!!

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Best ever Round 1 debut v Richmond?
...
Mitch Robinson


Last few years
...
Dow
SPS
Weitering


To come
...
Walsh


Stocker debuts about Round 2 or 3 (last couple of years when O’Brien, Fisher and Williamson made their debuts).

Get around them.

 

[HARKER]

Walsh in his first year is going to average 20 possessions a game?
Dow played many midfield minutes last year and had one 20 possession game. Just one.
A first year player will often get a RS nomination after such a game, but Walsh is going to have around 16 of them?

It's not going to happen but if anyone could do it, it may be Walsh.
Called him Mr. Everywhere last year but he'll need to elevate that to superman status to muster those sorts of numbers.

 

[Soapy V]

Time will tell but it wouldn’t surprise me if Walsh steps straight into the midfield and averages 20 plus possessions.

He’s as ready made as any mid I have ever seen at this age. Has it all. Only have to see him at training to realise this

Doesn’t mean he is better than Dow SPS etc just that he is more ready at a younger age

 

[HARKER]

I doubt there's been another first year player that has averaged 20 possessions a game over more than a dozen games, in his first year as an 18/19 year old.

As ready as we may feel he is, it would make for quite an achievement and tuck away firmly the RS award for him.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

This is utter crap. It’s really important people get their head around what happens in midfields. Take the much vaunted Pies midfield of 2018.

they had the grand total of FOUR regular mids who averaged more than 20 possessions a game. FOUR.

At the moment ONE or maybe TWO of their mids would keep up with Walsh in any kind of running contest.

Are you saying that he’s not as good as their fifth best mid? Sier? Would you rather Sier in round one than Walsh? What about their 6th best? Aish? I’m not bagging these players. I’m pointing out that MOST mids do not get that much of the footy. Yet everyone acknowledges you need a lot of them going through midfield to keep them fresh. I will put any amount of money that Walsh will average more than 20 a game this year and would be good enough to earn his spot on his merit in any club in the country. EASILY.

understand your sentiment but your examples arent good. Neither aish nor sier are in Collingwoods first choice midfield.
Pendlebury sidebottom treloar Adams Phillips Wells beams de goey greenwood