Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[HARKER]

I suppose what I'm driving at here is that I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go land a top shelf player this coming off-season, and instead look to bolster the 15-30th ranked player on our list.

We may as you say not acquire that top-shelf player, but it probably won't be for lack of trying.
Attaining a couple of the right mature players that may be achieved by using the first rounder we have from Adelaide, could well be the go.

We don't need any second grade mids though. There'd be very little point.
The players we do get have to be ready to step into a clearly-defined vacant position and not just brought in for depth......obviously.

 

[Laphroaig]

You called a club champion in Brett Ratten a butcher at the age of 25 even though at age 24 he was best and fairest in a premiership year, you then said at the same age as lebois Ratten has played 20 games and all of them s**t !
Ratten averaged 20 possessions playing SENIOR footy in his second year and was the most competitive player Carlton has had in the last 30 years and your comparing him to a lazy player who has shown nothing playing vfl football.

I would love for lebois to make it but watch him train and watch him play compared to other young players Williamson, Kennedy, Walsh, Fisher or silvagni these 5 players might not all make it but like Ratten they will die trying can the same be said about lebois ? definitely not.

Thanks for the lesson in rose colored hindsight. As Doro points out, it was only in the second half of his career that Ratten became a darling of the supporter base. In the first half of his career, he was quite the opposite. Stand in the crowd at a home game and you would rarely hear "Ratten" unless it was immediately preceded by "* ing useless".

I am old enough to have been there and experienced it. I wonder if you are.

Let us also consider another player who in his early years was widely believed to be talented but too lazy to use his gifts. Gary Ablett Junior. Eventually GAJ got his finger out, applied himself and became the undisputed number one player in the game for some years.

Nobody suspects Le Bois is that good. But if we think past the superficial GAJ is a fine example of young men maturing at different rates. Both physically and mentally.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We may as you say not acquire that top-shelf player, but it probably won't be for lack of trying.
Attaining a couple of the right mature players that may be achieved by using the first rounder we have from Adelaide, could well be the go.

We don't need any second grade mids though. There'd be very little point.
The players we do get have to be ready to step into a clearly-defined vacant position and not just brought in for depth......obviously.

Yeah, I'm considering it from the perspective of the players, and what they get out of the deal.

In 2019, we probably finish bottom 6. Slight chance we surprise and do better, but the odds would have to be on us landing in the bottom third of the ladder. Playing kids, not making finals, still a bit of room in the salary cap. For an elite player, finals is often a strong motivator. Job security is irrelevant, they'd get a game at any club. Money is a factor, but as we saw with Shiel it's not always as high on the list as we might think. We're also likely going to be competing with other clubs who have money to spend and not enough sense to do it responsibly. Solid role players, on the other hand, can often find themselves in and out of strong sides, or taking significant pay cuts to hang around. Money is a strong motivator, as is job security. Finals is a factor, but these players don't often have the luxury of being able to cherry pick the club they think will win a flag.

In 2020, ideally, it should be the reverse situation. We finish inside, or on the edge of, the top 8. We may not have as much money to offer an elite player, but it would be competitive, and we'd be offering the chance to join a club poised to challenge for multiple flags. The solid role players though - we're offering them less money, and a longer shot at making the senior side with more players having developed and established themselves.

If an out and out gun wants to come to us later this year, we'd be silly to turn them away. But reading the tea-leaves, I think we're probably still another two seasons away from becoming a genuine threat in September, and as such we'll be pushing the proverbial uphill to bring across a Josh Kelly type when we're still a finals non-factor.

2019 - two or three solid players who are either struggling to hold their spot in a very strong side, or have lost faith with their own club. Newnes, Billings, Gresham, Miller, Martin, Bolton.
2020 - one key signing to tip us over the edge. Grundy or Whitfield look good to me.

 

[CJMB]

We may as you say not acquire that top-shelf player, but it probably won't be for lack of trying.
Attaining a couple of the right mature players that may be achieved by using the first rounder we have from Adelaide, could well be the go.

We don't need any second grade mids though. There'd be very little point.
The players we do get have to be ready to step into a clearly-defined vacant position and not just brought in for depth......obviously.

When I think 'foot soldiers' and the types that often implies, I'm not necessarily conjuring images of c-grade mids but rather position-specific role players. Fairly similar to those we acquired recently; Newman, Fasolo, Bugg (maybe even Goddard). Guys who can come in and fill a void to improve the team but also don't require significant remuneration and will actually play some senior footy.

We aim to keep adding and improving to our midfield stocks through the draft and the occasional higher stakes trade. Try and get top quality, ideally without selling the farm, and keep a steady intake of talented kids coming in the door to maintain the cycle.

Like most, I think we're most likely going to try and trade the Crow's first for a player, potentially packaged with another pick. However if nothing eventuates then a mid-late 1st is normally pretty good for getting a pretty handy small forward (ie Rioli, Higgins, etc) and that may be of interest depending on how Pickett, Polson, Fasolo, Bugg, LeBois, etc have performed come September.

 

[HARKER]

2019 - two or three solid players who are either struggling to hold their spot in a very strong side, or have lost faith with their own club. Newnes, Billings, Gresham, Miller, Martin, Bolton.
2020 - one key signing to tip us over the edge. Grundy or Whitfield look good to me.

2 or 3 pf those guys? Yes please.
You can even pick them out of a barrel if you want

I'd more than settle for a Billings & Bolton, if their heads are in the right place.
Both could easily slot straight into our starting 22 and that's what it's going to be about. It has to be.

I don't care as much as attaining what may be seen to be the better players, but just the types that can start to complete the squad which still has gaps.
Of course I wouldn't knock back Coniglio should our TPP allow, but working around the edges of the list is now as important as any single gun.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Another class midfielder in the 25-27 age range would be ideal, but probably not necessary. While the age range might be skewed a little lower, the games player should be about right, as we're pumping more games into a lot of these kids than they'd expect to get at most other clubs.

The point I'm making isn't about what, specifically, we need to add though - it's about when we need to add it.

It's important for our list that we continue to add a few Newman/Fasolo/Bugg types each year. It's an easier sell to those players while we're down the bottom of the ladder, and while our list is young and relatively low on the pay-scale. As we improve, and our players start to command higher wages, it becomes harder to prise solid foot soldiers out of other clubs because we're not offering a pay-rise or stronger job security.

As far as timing goes - getting in a few more meat and potatoes players at the end of this year improves our ability to weather injuries, which in turn should improve our ladder position in 2020 making us a more attractive proposition for a big fish.

I suppose what I'm driving at here is that I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go land a top shelf player this coming off-season, and instead look to bolster the 15-30th ranked player on our list.

Mmmm

I think people sometimes underestimate the feeling valued factor in players preferences and being able to play the role they want. Players on an AFL list are the cream from a wide cast net. There's a concentration of very ambitious and seof confident types I think.

What I see from our list turnover is there are two strong motivators to leave.

1. Wanting to play AFL for guys struggling to break into our 22 ( this wont be an issue going forward for AFL grade players).

2. Guys who are overshadowed by their teamates and aren't getting the role and the recognition they want. Devon Smith is an example of a guy that saw us fighting tooth and nail for Kelly while offering him a take it or leave it contract as a defensive forward. He sees himself as a star mid so he goes to a club that will give him an opportunity to show it.

I see Taranto mentioned a bit. Although he's been in our best 22 since he was drafted. Rested one game in 2017 when not injured. He rarely attends clearances and plays a "backstop" role at the back of the square at centre bounces. The assumption is he'll integrate into the midfield with Shiel gone, if that happens I expect him to stay long term. If he was jumped by Bonar or Shipley for that spot I could easily see his eyes turning elsewhere.

My point is a developing team could be a great option for guys like that. The opportunity to take on a central role and be the incumbent when success starts to happen. There are 10 teams in Vic to choose from so I get it'll never be easy though.

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

Thanks for the lesson in rose colored hindsight. As Doro points out, it was only in the second half of his career that Ratten became a darling of the supporter base. In the first half of his career, he was quite the opposite. Stand in the crowd at a home game and you would rarely hear "Ratten" unless it was immediately preceded by "**** ing useless".

I am old enough to have been there and experienced it. I wonder if you are.

Let us also consider another player who in his early years was widely believed to be talented but too lazy to use his gifts. Gary Ablett Junior. Eventually GAJ got his finger out, applied himself and became the undisputed number one player in the game for some years.

Nobody suspects Le Bois is that good. But if we think past the superficial GAJ is a fine example of young men maturing at different rates. Both physically and mentally.

I was old enough to be there at the start of Rattens career and had rats number 7 on my footy jumper in 1993,

So far you’ve mentioned Ratten and Ablett when talking about players developing at different rates but these two were developing playing SENIOR footy and contributing from day one,

Lebois if you have ever seen him play or train live which I doubt was lucky not to be playing vfl seconds last year such was his poor performances, at this stage of his development a much better comparison for lebois is viojo rainbow or clem smith rather than Brett Ratten or Gary Ablett.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Yeah, I'm considering it from the perspective of the players, and what they get out of the deal.

In 2019, we probably finish bottom 6. Slight chance we surprise and do better, but the odds would have to be on us landing in the bottom third of the ladder. Playing kids, not making finals, still a bit of room in the salary cap. For an elite player, finals is often a strong motivator. Job security is irrelevant, they'd get a game at any club. Money is a factor, but as we saw with Shiel it's not always as high on the list as we might think. We're also likely going to be competing with other clubs who have money to spend and not enough sense to do it responsibly. Solid role players, on the other hand, can often find themselves in and out of strong sides, or taking significant pay cuts to hang around. Money is a strong motivator, as is job security. Finals is a factor, but these players don't often have the luxury of being able to cherry pick the club they think will win a flag.

In 2020, ideally, it should be the reverse situation. We finish inside, or on the edge of, the top 8. We may not have as much money to offer an elite player, but it would be competitive, and we'd be offering the chance to join a club poised to challenge for multiple flags. The solid role players though - we're offering them less money, and a longer shot at making the senior side with more players having developed and established themselves.

If an out and out gun wants to come to us later this year, we'd be silly to turn them away. But reading the tea-leaves, I think we're probably still another two seasons away from becoming a genuine threat in September, and as such we'll be pushing the proverbial uphill to bring across a Josh Kelly type when we're still a finals non-factor.

2019 - two or three solid players who are either struggling to hold their spot in a very strong side, or have lost faith with their own club. Newnes, Billings, Gresham, Miller, Martin, Bolton.
2020 - one key signing to tip us over the edge. Grundy or Whitfield look good to me.

I agree with your timeline. However, I think players from other clubs would know we are on the way up and after 2019, id say the trajectory could be extremely fast.

I see carlton finishing bottom 4 this year. No ifs nor buts. It is what it is imo.

You add 15-22 more games into our best 25 and I think you see a team ready to go to the next level in 2020. I even predict finals in 2020 (whether we bring in a big name or 2 this off season or not).

I dont think it will be as hard a sell come the end of this year as it was to Shiel.

Grundy is the one i want the following year but id suggest that wont happen.

2019 is the last year before people really take notice of us

 

[Love the Drake]

We need to add quality and class to our best 22.

I'm rapt at the amount of quality youngsters we finally have on the list, and believe we may even have a couple of surprise wins this year when they get their confidence up early.

By the end of the year we will know the areas we have to address and they will go hard on chasing A grade talent.

 

[Arr0w]

Think Brent Moloney squeezed out of Geelong.

We are no where near that level at the moment, although that will change over the next 3 years

 

[Laphroaig]

I was old enough to be there at the start of Rattens career and had rats number 7 on my footy jumper in 1993,

So far you’ve mentioned Ratten and Ablett when talking about players developing at different rates but these two were developing playing SENIOR footy and contributing from day one,

Lebois if you have ever seen him play or train live which I doubt was lucky not to be playing vfl seconds last year such was his poor performances, at this stage of his development a much better comparison for lebois is viojo rainbow or clem smith rather than Brett Ratten or Gary Ablett.

It appears that the point is so far over your head it may be in danger of altitude sickness.

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

It appears that the point is so far over your head it may be in danger of altitude sickness.

The point is you made a terrible uneducated comparison that should never have been made, I would love for lebois to start showing something but the signs aren’t good we need to start winning games and players with questionable work ethic aren’t going to cut it anymore.

 

[Laphroaig]

The point is you made a terrible uneducated comparison that should never have been made, I would love for lebois to start showing something but the signs aren’t good we need to start winning games and players with questionable work ethic aren’t going to cut it anymore.

I'm sure you were really cute in your little footy jumper, but it kind of makes your opinion on the subject suspect.

Whether you like it or not, if the voice of the supporter base had been heeded Ratten would not be a Club legend, he'd be a trivia question.

That's the point.

And don't call me uneducated.

 

[Aphrodite]

Play nice thanks folks.

NO personal attacks and don't play the 'man'!

 

[Soapy V]

I agree with your timeline. However, I think players from other clubs would know we are on the way up and after 2019, id say the trajectory could be extremely fast.

I see carlton finishing bottom 4 this year. No ifs nor buts. It is what it is imo.

You add 15-22 more games into our best 25 and I think you see a team ready to go to the next level in 2020. I even predict finals in 2020 (whether we bring in a big name or 2 this off season or not).

I dont think it will be as hard a sell come the end of this year as it was to Shiel.

Grundy is the one i want the following year but id suggest that wont happen.

2019 is the last year before people really take notice of us

It's why I think this could be a settling year. The last three years have seen massive change. Let the side settle, get games and develop together. In another year we will then have a very clear idea of what our list is like and what our key needs are. We should also be on the way up and an exciting option for players. We should also have the money.

1 x FA, 1-2 needs trades and 3-4 draft picks is what we will do

By that stage it should be names like McLuggage Cerra Ainsworth Hopper that we chase

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

I'm sure you were really cute in your little footy jumper, but it kind of makes your opinion on the subject suspect.

Whether you like it or not, if the voice of the supporter base had been heeded Ratten would not be a Club legend, he'd be a trivia question.

That's the point.

And don't call me uneducated.

I’d say your opinion on the subject is the one that is suspect considering you brought up and disrespected Ratten in the first place by mentioning him and lebois together calling Ratten a butcher at the age of 25, even though he was best and fairest in a premiership year aged 24 and was playing regular senior footy in his second year, they developed in completely different ways with Ratten a competitive beast and lebois to put it kindly not.

Anyway I think we should move on let’s hope lebois takes a leaf out of young players like Kennedy, Walsh, silvagni and Williamson’s book and at least give himself a chance to make it by getting some competitiveness about the way he plays and trains.

 

[katmanblue]

Another class midfielder in the 25-27 age range would be ideal, but probably not necessary. While the age range might be skewed a little lower, the games player should be about right, as we're pumping more games into a lot of these kids than they'd expect to get at most other clubs.

The point I'm making isn't about what, specifically, we need to add though - it's about when we need to add it.

It's important for our list that we continue to add a few Newman/Fasolo/Bugg types each year. It's an easier sell to those players while we're down the bottom of the ladder, and while our list is young and relatively low on the pay-scale. As we improve, and our players start to command higher wages, it becomes harder to prise solid foot soldiers out of other clubs because we're not offering a pay-rise or stronger job security.

As far as timing goes - getting in a few more meat and potatoes players at the end of this year improves our ability to weather injuries, which in turn should improve our ladder position in 2020 making us a more attractive proposition for a big fish.

I suppose what I'm driving at here is that I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go land a top shelf player this coming off-season, and instead look to bolster the 15-30th ranked player on our list.

Look at you with your well thought out points and logic. I think you are in the wrong place.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HARKER]

I really like Phillips and have liked him right from the first few times I watched him at training, but; If he can't stay fit on the field, I can't see his contract being extended.
I feel he'd be in a better place playing the 18 or so good games in the VFL, than to play some better games in the senior squad yet end up missing half the year for one injury or another.
Same may go for LeBois, as these guys just acquire too many non-collision injuries to warrant being relied upon.

I know we have Russell now and he'll likely be very good for the group, but maybe be best just wait and see before claiming him as the recruit of the off-season. Proof....pudding....

 

[Coona Blues]

I really like Phillips and have liked him right from the first few times I watched him at training, but; If he can't stay fit on the field, I can't see his contract being extended.
I feel he'd be in a better place playing the 18 or so good games in the VFL, than to play some better games in the senior squad yet end up missing half the year for one injury or another.
Same may go for LeBois, as these guys just acquire too many non-collision injuries to warrant being relied upon.

I know we have Russell now and he'll likely be very good for the group, but maybe be best just wait and see before claiming him as the recruit of the off-season. Proof....pudding....

Phillips is a key to our list management with regard to our ruck division.

Clearly De Koning is the successor to the no.1 role, but while he may be able to play sooner due to his forward prowess, it is hard to see him assuming
the mantle full-time for 2-3 years.

Lobbe turns 30 before the season and our warhorse and first choice Kreuzer turns 30 during the season. Both have had their issue with injury and
could have remaining careers between 1 and 3 years realistically. We will be most likely parting ways with long term 2nd ruck/forward Casboult at
the end of the season, and it would seem unlikely that all of Kreuze, Lobbe and Sauce will remain beyond 2019, providing TDK continues a natural
progression with his development.

If Sauce Phillips has another compromised year with soft tissue injury, he would surely be gone, however if he can finally "come solid" with the
assistance of Russell, and display some durability, he provides that crucial couple of years grace of having an AFL quality ruckman to fill a
possible void.

Most, if not all of the "gettable" mature rucks have found new homes in the last 2 years. There is a bit of young talent coming through some lists,
but to poach/recruit them would still leave us with a monumental age imbalance should we need to part with Phillips. Personally, I would be happy
use a latish first round pick(likely Adelaide's) on the likes of Luke Jackson who is the standout junior ruck of this years crop. Quality ruckmen are
more difficult to trade in than many believe, so surely it makes sense to develop our own.

I understand that many are against using high picks on rucks, but I feel our list balance is "there" barring ruck, "breakaway" half back and small/medium forward "dynamo". Sure we have to wait for the "kids" to mature, but our best 22 midfield projects as a "No Vacancy" in my opinion, unless we can coax
an absolute top liner (Coniglio). We can relatively easily add depth without high expectation, read Gibbons, Sam Fisher types to balance our second tier
depth insurance and to provide a competitive Northern Blues development ground.

 

[HBF]

list management advice from fremantle........see andew mcleod........

And trading away #1 for Croad.

 

[HBF]

Is Rioli out of contract at end of season at richmond ?
Would love to land him or Gresham/Billings using adelaide's 2019 pick as the guts of a trade.
One of the above blokes and Stocker for our 2019 pick sits ok with me ...

Getting Rioli out of Richmond would be tough, and costly.

 

[HBF]

Mr Kennedy is one of my favorites TSG. A real footballer. A real mid. A real teammate.

Loving hearing that he's so fit and moving well. A Cripps and Kennedy combo is our future engine imo.

Having him fit will make a huge difference in 2019.

 

[thylacine60]

Phillips is a key to our list management with regard to our ruck division.

Clearly De Koning is the successor to the no.1 role, but while he may be able to play sooner due to his forward prowess, it is hard to see him assuming
the mantle full-time for 2-3 years.

Lobbe turns 30 before the season and our warhorse and first choice Kreuzer turns 30 during the season. Both have had their issue with injury and
could have remaining careers between 1 and 3 years realistically. We will be most likely parting ways with long term 2nd ruck/forward Casboult at
the end of the season, and it would seem unlikely that all of Kreuze, Lobbe and Sauce will remain beyond 2019, providing TDK continues a natural
progression with his development.

If Sauce Phillips has another compromised year with soft tissue injury, he would surely be gone, however if he can finally "come solid" with the
assistance of Russell, and display some durability, he provides that crucial couple of years grace of having an AFL quality ruckman to fill a
possible void.

Most, if not all of the "gettable" mature rucks have found new homes in the last 2 years. There is a bit of young talent coming through some lists,
but to poach/recruit them would still leave us with a monumental age imbalance should we need to part with Phillips. Personally, I would be happy
use a latish first round pick(likely Adelaide's) on the likes of Luke Jackson who is the standout junior ruck of this years crop. Quality ruckmen are
more difficult to trade in than many believe, so surely it makes sense to develop our own.

I understand that many are against using high picks on rucks, but I feel our list balance is "there" barring ruck, "breakaway" half back and small/medium forward "dynamo". Sure we have to wait for the "kids" to mature, but our best 22 midfield projects as a "No Vacancy" in my opinion, unless we can coax
an absolute top liner (Coniglio). We can relatively easily add depth without high expectation, read Gibbons, Sam Fisher types to balance our second tier
depth insurance and to provide a competitive Northern Blues development ground.

quality post is quality

 

[HereComesJuddy]

My big call is that Newman will finish in the top 10 of our best and fairest. I feel this guy will surprise many. Can play back, mid and forward. Can rack up possessions.

This guy could be the steal of last trade period imo

 

[thylacine60]

we might end up with more steals than bhp.............