Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Jeremias]

I agree with HARKER.

Earlier this year I said I have us finishing above both St Kilda and the Gold Coast. I've seen nothing yet to alter my views - if anything they have become more concrete.

The competition is very even and it doesn't take a lot for the ladder to change dramatically. There is certainly a case to be made for us to finish ahead of some or all of Fremantle, North Melbourne and the Bulldogs - and you can probably add a few other sides to that also.

Not suggesting it will happen (still think we will likely end up in the bottom 4) but things can change very quickly, and it doesn't take a lot for it to happen.

Having said that...it also doesn't take a lot for us to see a repeat of 2018...but I don't want to talk about that.

 

[james Dean]

If we have to make 5-6 senior changes this season I'd say theyd be

Simpson and Thomas (retired) Pickett, Lobbe and Garlett (delisted) and 1 of Plowman, Williamson, JSOS, and Macreadie to be delisted.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I agree with HARKER.

Earlier this year I said I have us finishing above both St Kilda and the Gold Coast. I've seen nothing yet to alter my views - if anything they have become more concrete.

The competition is very even and it doesn't take a lot for the ladder to change dramatically. There is certainly a case to be made for us to finish ahead of some or all of Fremantle, North Melbourne and the Bulldogs - and you can probably add a few other sides to that also.

Not suggesting it will happen (still think we will likely end up in the bottom 4) but things can change very quickly, and it doesn't take a lot for it to happen.

Having said that...it also doesn't take a lot for us to see a repeat of 2018...but I don't want to talk about that.

Yeh it’s really hard to know how we will go and why I think we shouldn’t judge ourselves on wins for the year.
We could play well with no luck and win 3-4 or we could play well with luck and win 7-8
Next year that all changes though.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

If we have to make 5-6 senior changes this season I'd say theyd be

Simpson and Thomas (retired) Pickett, Lobbe and Garlett (delisted) and 1 of Plowman, Williamson, JSOS, and Macreadie to be delisted.

None of Plowman JSos Macreadie or Plowman will be delisted end of year. Dafuq you taking? Off the senior list all of Schumacher, Pickett, Polson, Lang, Casboult, Phillips, Cottrell and kerr are way more likely. You've literally chosen a starting defender, an injured young gun, a developing key position player and one of our better plug a gap type players. Bananas.

 

[Blue__Balls]

If we have to make 5-6 senior changes this season I'd say theyd be

Simpson and Thomas (retired) Pickett, Lobbe and Garlett (delisted) and 1 of Plowman, Williamson, JSOS, and Macreadie to be delisted.

Think I might have caught a glimpse of your credibility as it disappeared into the distance

Garlett is currently best 22 with a reasonably fit list - at the very least he's first or second on the depth list when others come back.
Plowman is best 22, despite what many think. Same deal as Garlett, if he gets overtaken he doesn't get delisted, he gets retained as reliable depth. Also contracted for 2020...
Williamson and Macreadie are developing youngsters held back by injury. Both now close to fit and will likely be afforded at least one more year after this to see what they can do with a preseason. Especially given they're contracted for 2020...
JSOS is a quintessential journeyman, can plug gaps anywhere on the field in a pinch, and will likely be a later developer (physically). Not going anywhere soon.

Simmo and Thomas in the discussion for retirement, but both still have plenty to offer. Reckon one goes, one stays.

Pickett I have to agree with - but if Russell can get his head right through his rehab program......maybe not.

Lobbe - might be retained as cheap depth, no rush.

Lang, Lebois, Casboult the first three names on my list.
One of the old hats to retire, maybe two.
Pickett on notice.
Maaaaaybe one of the ruckmen.

5-7 changes there, depending on what's available on the market.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Think I might have caught a glimpse of your credibility as it disappeared into the distance

Garlett is currently best 22 with a reasonably fit list - at the very least he's first or second on the depth list when others come back.
Plowman is best 22, despite what many think. Same deal as Garlett, if he gets overtaken he doesn't get delisted, he gets retained as reliable depth. Also contracted for 2020...
Williamson and Macreadie are developing youngsters held back by injury. Both now close to fit and will likely be afforded at least one more year after this to see what they can do with a preseason. Especially given they're contracted for 2020...
JSOS is a quintessential journeyman, can plug gaps anywhere on the field in a pinch, and will likely be a later developer (physically). Not going anywhere soon.

Simmo and Thomas in the discussion for retirement, but both still have plenty to offer. Reckon one goes, one stays.

Pickett I have to agree with - but if Russell can get his head right through his rehab program......maybe not.

Lobbe - might be retained as cheap depth, no rush.

Lang, Lebois, Casboult the first three names on my list.
One of the old hats to retire, maybe two.
Pickett on notice.
Maaaaaybe one of the ruckmen.

5-7 changes there, depending on what's available on the market.

5-7 senior changes and a rookie or two looks likely.

 

[james Dean]

None of Plowman JSos Macreadie or Plowman will be delisted end of year. Dafuq you taking? Off the senior list all of Schumacher, Pickett, Polson, Lang, Casboult, Phillips, Cottrell and kerr are way more likely. You've literally chosen a starting defender, an injured young gun, a developing key position player and one of our better plug a gap type players. Bananas.

Plowman is probably the least likely to go there. Mixed reports on Williamson's health, if his back is truly rooted then it is a no-brainer. Casboult I did forget about and yeah he is definitely gone, but JSOS is not a developing KPP, he either needs to make it as a flanker or he won't make it, and he hasn't shown anywhere near enough to me that he will be AFL quality. Polson, Schumacher, Phillips and Kerr are all contracted.

 

[gbatman]

I predict that well before the end of the season you will say to yourself. What a silly sausage I was. Kennedy is a ripper.

I hope so and I am not writing that off at all but he certainly has some things to work on. If he gets those things right then he's a chance. The thing is if you aren't quick and overly mobily then you have to be really really good in other areas to make up for it and contribute in other ways. Might take him a week, it might take him half the season, we will see. If our coaches are good and see the problems which I have seen in his stoppage work it really shouldn't take too long but he is going to need to be strong in the shoulders so any injuries there will hold him back.

Are you for real?
The bloke is managed for one preseason game and suddenly he is substandard and "needs development" akin to a draftee.
The bloke debuted in 2016 kicking 3 goals first up. Played 3 games when opportunity presented for a draftee in a packed list of supremely talented young players. His second year in 2017 at GWS produced 16 games, playing predominantly forward, despite being a mid first. His prime role in a team documented as being light on for defensive workers at the time, was as a pressure forward. He racked up 73 tackles, a bit better than 4.5 per game. 16 games in a line up such as that of GWS is no mean feat, yet he should spend his time ironing out his deficiencies in our seconds.

The bloke has endured a shocking time with injury since joining us, clearly mismanagement or simply having the guts and team ethos to play hurt has been an issue. I will grant you the new 6-6-6 rules may reduce the need for multiple "bulls" to do the grunt work at repeat stoppages. This may effect the dynamic of our midfield mix, and the quality of Walsh, Setterfield, SPS, Fisher and Dow impact. We seem keen to exclude Murph and Ed from the main midfield rotations ASAP. This leaves Kennedy as our number two inside midfielder, at least on the score of experience. We are keen to get minutes in to the kids, why is it so difficult to believe MK & LOB playing two's during JLT was as much about time management as anything?

Kennedy is an integral part of our midfield as is O'Brien and in time Stocker. The balance is an unknown and a work in progress, but to make such a derogatory assessment of one of our own is to say the least ordinary.

I am very much for real. The midfielders we have picked so far through JLT don't have as many weaknesses in their game and by that I mean they aren't as slow and have good lateral movement which means their potential to contribute defensively is significantly greater. Not only that, they have all demonstrated good ball winning abilities and form so when you put together a best 22 Kennedy is an emergency for mine.

My opinion, this will be the best 22 for round 1. Do we need any more midfielders? Numbers look fairly good. Quality is ok. Balance is good. If you were going to improve it you would improve it with a quick ball winner who can kick goals.

B: Plowman Jones Newman
HB: Simpson Weitering Thomas
C: Murphy Cripps Fisher
HF: Fasolo Curnow Gibbons
F: McKay McGovern Cuningham
OB: Phillips Dow SPS
IC: Garlett Setterfield Curnow Walsh
EM: Kennedy Silvagni O'Brien ????

He doesn't suddenly need development, he just needs it. Maybe you can't see it but I can. I hope our coaches can see it. For what it's worth he's played match simulation and a practice against Hawthorn as well. I'm guessing perhaps he didn't impress enough to get a run in the JLT. If we didn't have those players coming in then sure he could develop in the seniors but no JLT games and a VFL practice match where his kinks to me were obvious doesn't get him into that side unless you restructure it and I wouldn't restructure it. By that you could drop out a small forward like Fasolo or Gibbons and play Murphy or Curnow in that role but I am not sure that is a good thing.

I'm not sure what GWS structure was at the time, I could imagine they were quality and could accomodate a few slower types and were looking for big bodies. With our structure I'm not sure we need an inside midfielder who isn't a good mover and hasn't got form behind him. Either way I want to see him picked on form not potential as we have been doing with players up until now. He is certainly not playing for GWS' 2016 side. Lets face it, he might be alright but this might be the same situation as Josh Kennedy at Hawthorn. He's a really good player but he didn't fit into Hawthorn's side structurally. That's just how it is when you have talent but you aren't a great mover and a bit limited. There's a limit on how many of those types you can accommodate in a side. You don't really improve your ball winning ability by playing extra ball winners, you just play the right amount and get your balance and structure right.

If Kennedy and O'Brien playing JLT meant that they weren't going to get much game time so it was about time management and they played a full VFL game instead. Doesn't this suggest that them not getting much of a run in the JLT would mean they are behind all these other players who got fair game time? If the coach is going to pick players and he knows he's not going to play them much then that suggests he's rating of those players is not as high as the rest.

If Kennedy plays round one it may be in a negating role against Dustin Martin which I would not be against because that could be important and he may have potential in this role but I just think he will be lucky to be selected. We didn't seem too keen on him with our JLT selections which I believe we used to get a look at most of our best 22 and ones we aren't too sure of.

I'm not worried about players playing in the twos, it's a sign we're building depth and it doesn't mean they will finish up there, just means they need to earn a place in the side. You know, like what happens at good footy clubs.

Tell me where I have been derogatory because you are wrong here.

 

[Blue and Blue]

I hope so and I am not writing that off at all but he certainly has some things to work on. If he gets those things right then he's a chance. The thing is if you aren't quick and overly mobily then you have to be really really good in other areas to make up for it and contribute in other ways. Might take him a week, it might take him half the season, we will see. If our coaches are good and see the problems which I have seen in his stoppage work it really shouldn't take too long but he is going to need to be strong in the shoulders so any injuries there will hold him back.

Excellent response gbatman I really feel that the problems you allude to centre on lack of confidence in his body. That has to be put right then he needs a block of games to get that concern out of his head. If he is fit he is a weapon I am certain.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Plowman is probably the least likely to go there. Mixed reports on Williamson's health, if his back is truly rooted then it is a no-brainer. Casboult I did forget about and yeah he is definitely gone, but JSOS is not a developing KPP, he either needs to make it as a flanker or he won't make it, and he hasn't shown anywhere near enough to me that he will be AFL quality. Polson, Schumacher, Phillips and Kerr are all contracted.

Fair enough but the developing kpp was Macreadie haha.

 

[gbatman]

Excellent response gbatman I really feel that the problems you allude to centre on lack of confidence in his body. That has to be put right then he needs a block of games to get that concern out of his head. If he is fit he is a weapon I am certain.

Yeah confidence comes from maturity, feeling fit and doing something well repetitively. Being strong which he wasn't last season but looks this season and might be able to go further with and developing an ability to own his space at stoppages will change things for him significantly. Add a few things to his bow like getting out in space more and tagging IMO and he's a really big chance of cementing a spot.

I feel we've got a good midfield coming on and that we will be attempting to add to it to make it elite and that means you will have to offer a lot and be very good to get in.

He's not best 22 at the moment, if he lifts a level adds things to his game and becomes best 22 then that's great. Same goes for a few others who have good qualities like Silvagni, Polson, O'Brien, TDK etc.

We're just starting to look like a half decent footy club because we have more than 18 good footballers on the list, we have more than 22 and we can't play them all.

It's realistic that we might have Marchbank, Kreuzer, Kennedy, O'Brien, Macreadie and Williamson playing VFL at some stage this season working their way back into senior football.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I can't even begin to stress the importance of having our best 22 on the field, particularly our defence....that will in turn flow into the over all team structure. We haven't had our best 22 on the field for a year now.

Having a fit and healthy Doc, Willo and Marchy in our back 6 totally reinforces our defensive structure...so we don't need to rely on mids to fill that role...Garlett can shift up to half forward with a fit and healthy Pickett. Throw Cuners into the mix along with our 'big three' tall forwards and Fas, then all of a sudden our forward and defence look pretty ominous.

And our midfield will just improve and improve. No need to even go into that.

SOS, Agresta and co will have our list structure sorted....we're in a trade period, so the addition of a Billings, Martin, Hunt etc will only add to what is building to a really talented list. Coniglio as a FA would be the icing on the cake, but highly unlikely.

 

[Soapy V]

I thought last night showed how important now it is to get mature bodies onto the list now. Not only top end talent but particular role players. The positions needed will sort themselves out as the year goes but 5-6 23-26 year olds is what is needed

 

[Doro]

I thought last night showed how important now it is to get mature bodies onto the list now. Not only top end talent but particular role players. The positions needed will sort themselves out as the year goes but 5-6 23-26 year olds is what is needed

I think time is doing it by itself. If we have a positive season, we'll have interest. I'd prefer we win first, analyse what's missing second

 

[Soapy V]

I can't even begin to stress the importance of having our best 22 on the field, particularly our defence....that will in turn flow into the over all team structure. We haven't had our best 22 on the field for a year now.

Having a fit and healthy Doc, Willo and Marchy in our back 6 totally reinforces our defensive structure...so we don't need to rely on mids to fill that role...Garlett can shift up to half forward with a fit and healthy Pickett. Throw Cuners into the mix along with our 'big three' tall forwards and Fas, then all of a sudden our forward and defence look pretty ominous.

And our midfield will just improve and improve. No need to even go into that.

SOS, Agresta and co will have our list structure sorted....we're in a trade period, so the addition of a Billings, Martin, Hunt etc will only add to what is building to a really talented list. Coniglio as a FA would be the icing on the cake, but highly unlikely.

Agree. I would love a 25 year old Callum Ward type player. Even another 2 Newman type players cheap. Makes a big difference.

I have no doubt sos is working on it already

 

[Blue and Blue]

I thought last night showed how important now it is to get mature bodies onto the list now. Not only top end talent but particular role players. The positions needed will sort themselves out as the year goes but 5-6 23-26 year olds is what is needed

Well we can't do that till next year but this season will give a much clearer idea of exactly what to bring in. I still think we have players already that will improve a lot more next year rather than this year.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Darcy Parish been forced out of * team round 1 to make way for Shiel....and out of contract the end of the year....hmmmmmm

Maybe missing out on Shiel could end up working to our advantage.

 

[Soapy V]

Well we can't do that till next year but this season will give a much clearer idea of exactly what to bring in. I still think we have players already that will improve a lot more next year rather than this year.

We have a great young list but we now need size around them. We will target trades over draft picks this year and next

 

[Soapy V]

Darcy Parish been forced out of * team round 1 to make way for Shiel....and out of contract the end of the year....hmmmmmm

Maybe missing out on Shiel could end up working to our advantage.

Rated him as a junior but hasn’t stepped up. Interested to know why

 

[Doro]

We have a great young list but we now need size around them. We will target trades over draft picks this year and next

By 2020, the size will have developed in house. SOS will be on the again though. What do we need post round one most? Kelly/Cogs, Billings, - I'm not sharing the urgency because I don't know what the side lacks yet.

 

[Soapy V]

By 2020, the size will have developed in house. SOS will be on the again though. What do we need post round one most? Kelly/Cogs, Billings, - I'm not sharing the urgency because I don't know what the side lacks yet.

No one said anything about urgency?? it’s List Management. We have the young talent. We will make anywhere between 5-8 changes and I believe most will be mature recruits.

 

[Doro]

No one said anything about urgency??

it’s List Management. We have the young talent. We will make anywhere between 5-8 changes and I believe most will be mature recruits.

Yeah that was the point. The young talent is becoming mature talent Not sure what we think is needed in rd1 will match the thinking post season. Establish what's weak and work out the offer accordingly.

 

[DangerousD]

I am wondering who's spot Marchbank takes when he returns? Marchy is a great player when fit, but im not sure who he will replace.
Jones for all his flaws, brings so much to the table, Weitering is coming along nicely and that leaves Plow who i see as being at risk, unless we will strange our structure.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

Im a little worried about our fwd set up with Harry, Charlie, Gov and then Fasolo> Fs looked slow and underdone last night and i wonder if he is in completion with Kennedy and SOS for a starting spot. He really needs to be getting the ball 12-15 times a game to hold his spot imo.

 

[Soapy V]

Yeah that was the point. The young talent is becoming mature talent Not sure what we think is needed in rd1 will match the thinking post season. Establish what's weak and work out the offer accordingly.

The end of 2019 was always about adding mature talent. Not sure what Rd 1 or what’s weak has to do with it. The club knows we need mature bodies whatever position

 

[Doro]

The end of 2019 was always about adding mature talent. Not sure what Rd 1 or what’s weak has to do with it. The club knows we need mature bodies whatever position

Mature bodied what? Not sure why there needs to be a fixed position of need at round one.