Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Soapy V]

Drums keep beating Martin, is a very unique player. Predominantly high half forward, but not a great shot at goal. Can play wing and spent a couple of seasons playing plenty off half back. Excellent field kick and can go through the guts if necessary. Remains fairly slight despite having plenty of time in the system.

Not easily categorised or compared to others. Different style of player, but reads as a Shaun Burgoyne type who can fill the gaps wherever needed, but certainly projects as a playmaker. IMO would need to find a genuine goalkicking pressure forward type as well, but would suit our needs admirably.

If we can get a very good one I'm all for it. I just don't see it as a priority.

At the moment we have Owies, LeBois, Fasolo, Deluca, Garlett on our list and Polson, Murphy, Fisher & Thomas who can play that role then possibly Jack Martin.

Logic says that Owies will stay, LeBois & Fasolo need to do something quick and DeLuca may be more an inside mid. If Murphy is allowed to play small forward I think he can play for another season, Thomas and/or Simpson the same especially with Doc & Willo coming back. Polson I'd like to see play midfield. Garlett I want see play under Teague.

When we have a midfield that has Walsh Dow Stocker Fisher O'Brien Lang Cuningham Gibbons supporting Cripps & Setterfield as well how can we fit them all in? Plus Martin and a couple of others?

 

[Soapy V]

Re: Fitness

Looking forward to seeing

Marchbank
Williamson
Walsh
Stocker
Fisher
Dow
O'Brien
SPS
Cuningham
Polson
Macreadie
Jack
McKay
Charlie
Kennedy
Schumacher
Kerr
Setterfield


so much better prepared for AFL football in 2020. Comments have been they are 1-3 years behind where they should be. Talk is of a massive change in strength and body shape.

A fitter McGovern will be great as well.

 

[gbatman]

I think if we had the picks we'd have another bit of a clean out. But I think we will hold onto a few players we probably don't need rather than delve into 4th round picks and so on.

Probably explore a few trades. I can see clubs enquiring about Casboult and Goddard. Slim chance Kennedy has interest but you never know.

Fitness will be a big deal. There are a lot of guys who aren't big and strong enough and some who haven't got their running up to scratch.

No side can have success unless it develops physicality across the board.

We have guys who are regular reserves players who will remain regular reserves players I feel but will probably remain on the list and be trickled out over time. We need to maintain a strong reserves side and it's improved a lot but it could be better.

 

[gbatman]

Gee Gibbons a real surprise packet...the guy can seriously play. Endurance, work rate, a good kick on both feet, decent at roving packs and seems like a goal-kicker. And to think he was overlooked at last years national and rookie drafts yet again, poor guy.

Following a similar path to Sam Mitchell. Not saying he is as good but I hope he gets a good chance to prove himself in the midfield as well. He's definitely improved his game though. His kicking which I have seen as a real weakness has improved to a fairly decent standard.

Worked his arse off to get a go at AFL and on his fitness and he's earned his spot as a regular AFL player. Hope he finishes the year off playing mostly midfield.

 

[BluesRule]

Hopefully we can get a hold of some of the more premium players out there.

The midfield needs some strong players capable of getting a lot of the footy. Ball winning is a real art but they also need to be able to kick and run. We don't need to add anymore slow or poor kicks. We need to add to Cripps and Walsh so it's going to take some real quality. We need to limit how many mids with deficiencies we carry and we carry a lot. Don't get enough of the ball, don't use it well enough, slow, don't tackle well and lack physicality etc.

I would be looking at mids that tick these boxes: Regularly gets 25 possessions plus, good disposal, not slow, strong body, hard at it. Bonus features would be also being a goal kicking mid and being 20-23 with these qualities.

Small forward, that is an art too. That ability to kick goals and crumb and get to the right spots at the right time is something special and finding players who can do this but also tackle is even rarer but this is the task ahead. I would say the requirements would be to kick at least a goal a game and apply good pressure. Bonus ability would be to be able to also find the footy a bit.

Here's a few I would chase...

Midfielders
Tim Taranto - GWS - Premium quality midfielder who gets a lot of it, tackles, runs fast, kicks goals. Victorian and out of contract next season. So would have to trade two first rounders to get. Ideal fit for our side. Only 21 years old and averages over 28 disposals. Should be our number one target IMO he's perfect for us.

Brayden Fiorini - GCS - Only 21 years old and averages over 28 disposals. Genuine ball winner. Tackles. Does all that. Would be an enormous get for us and would make a powerful ball winning midfield alongside Cripps and Walsh. He's a Victorian and out of contract next year.

Stephen Coniglio - GWS - 25 year old so he's a little older than some I've mentioned but still a good age for us. Averages over 27 disposals and is a damaging player who kicks goals. Former Western Australian but is a restricted free agent so we just have to get him to want to come and offer the right contract.

Ed Langdon - Fremantle - Averaging over 25 disposals this season. Been injury prone but is a former Victorian and out of contract this season. We don't hit our marks this season with the premium players he may well be worth asking the question. Only 23 years old too but we may end up overpaying is my worry.

Will Brodie - GCS - We've been linked to him before. 20 year old who averages over 24 disposals and lays tackles. Strong midfielder who can get it and is very young, ticks a lot of boxes. He's a Victorian and out of contract next season.

Jackson Hately - GWS - Bit from left field but we'd have to enquire if we don't get our targets. First round pick. Teenager who has played two games, averaged over 21 disposals and averages over 27 NEAFL disposals. I don't know much about him but fair chance he can play. South Australian but that's never stopped us. Out of contract next season

Forwards
Tom Papley - Sydney - I think he would be absolutely ideal for us. 22 years old, averages 1.8 goals per game, tackles, can find the footy and is a former Victorian who is out of contract next season. No idea what it would cost to get him to us but as I said he would be ideal for our side.

Jamie Elliott - Collingwood - He's 26 and injury prone so a little less desirable but he is a restricted free agent so available for just salary. Gun player when up and going and has had a reasonable season. Probably not keen to leave Collingwood but worth asking the question.

What we've got
Adelaide's first round pick. 2 third round picks. Future picks. Possible Priority Pick?

Hopefully Adelaide bomb out a bit, they don't have to bomb all the way out but I think we should be looking to trade future picks as well.

We might have players to trade. We have an excessive amount of key defenders. Casboult is proving himself. Jones has proven himself. Goddard is dominating the VFL. Weitering is playing well as is Marchbank. Macreadie is developing. Could we get back into the second round and perhaps the early second round with player and pick swaps?

I think Adelaide having our first round pick and us having theirs will hopefully become irrelevant. I think we will push really hard to trade it with another pick for someone good. Having such a poor season would not be helping at this stage though as will not having a coach.

We need to players to want to come to us, inspect our club and be presented with the best club with the best staff and best facilities they see when they come looking around Victoria. Unfortunately when the top players inspect the Victorian teams they look at the clubs with the superstar former players as assistants and see super impressive facilities and meet impressive coaches and with us I just don't know if we impress the better players, especially being last on the ladder. I think we might overcome that if we finish this season off strongly. Let's hope we can take the next steps and get the big names to chose us as they have with Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond.

In an ideal world we would trade our one or two third rounders and a player for a decent second round pick, trade our future second and current second for someone like Papley then trade two first round picks for one of the real premium midfielders then land Coniglio as a RFA.

I don't think we are too badly off going into next year's draft, I'd rather have a second round pick though, I think that is the one which really bites. I think we may also need Adelaide to drop down the ladder a bit but at this stage it might be alright. Time will tell. We just need players to chose us.

Really well thought out and reasoned post gbatman.
I like and dislike a few, but love your reasoning. Would love to get Taranto but cannot see GWS letting him go at any cost. Would give us 3 of the very best mids in the AFL.

There are a few I could add:

1. Apparently (last nights news) there is team disharmony at Adelaide. Could we chase out of contract (OOC) Reilly O'Brien (ruck)? Still young and has upside, plus gives TDK more time to develop/depth. The angst of doing this trade would be interesting... and not sure we could get it done unless he was prepared to walk.

2. Could we try for one of Richmonds excess small forwards who want more games. Liam Baker is OOC and looks a beauty, was a rookie, only 21yo, only played 12 games, so could be cheapish (2nd rounder?), but rising star nomination may push higher. Else Shai Bolton or Dan Butler may be cheap OOC options.

3. Other notable OOC's are: Jack Billings (wing), Luke Dunstan (mid), Harry Cunningham (25yo Syd RFA), Caleb Daniel (def) or Josh Dunkley (mid). Sydney are cap squeezed and Cunningham also plays out of defence so could fill a need and add quality (Simpson replacement?) for a low cost. But Lisfranc history could be a worry and his upside is nowhere near as high as Taranto.

 

[true blue19]

Brodie just had a career game and wasn’t far behind McCluggage in his draft year before sliding quickly in the month leading up to the draft.

He’s a good footballer, who’s in the right age bracket for us though, if he’d want to join. The Paul (?) Brodie connection is a decent thing to have.

Kind of spells the end for Kennedy though.

Brodie is the same as Kennedy both are inside clearance player, not quick and not versatile.

If Brodie was on our list he would be behind Cripps, Fisher, Walsh, Dow, SPS, Setterfield, Ed and probably Murphy and Cunningham and playing for the Ants

 

[Weiterbot23]

Following a similar path to Sam Mitchell. Not saying he is as good but I hope he gets a good chance to prove himself in the midfield as well. He's definitely improved his game though. His kicking which I have seen as a real weakness has improved to a fairly decent standard.

Worked his arse off to get a go at AFL and on his fitness and he's earned his spot as a regular AFL player. Hope he finishes the year off playing mostly midfield.

Do you take Dow or SPS out as Gibbons is performing better? or force feed games into the high draft picks as they have higher ceilings?


I think we all just need some wins for sanity, push the kids aside and throw Gibbons and Ed in the guts, lets get some wins!

 

[Mr_Plow]

Brodie is the same as Kennedy both are inside clearance player, not quick and not versatile.

If Brodie was on our list he would be behind Cripps, Fisher, Walsh, Dow, SPS, Setterfield, Ed and probably Murphy and Cunningham and playing for the Ants

Not quite correct, Brodie has decent straight line speed once he gets going, certainly a lot more than Kennedy. Agree that he is not versatile, is essentially a stoppage player, and his vision + ball use certainly nothing more than average.

 

[blue healer]

Do you take Dow or SPS out as Gibbons is performing better? or force feed games into the high draft picks as they have higher ceilings?


I think we all just need some wins for sanity, push the kids aside and throw Gibbons and Ed in the guts, lets get some wins!

I don't think it would hurt us to set up a resting/rotation system for our younger players as the year goes on.

 

[Blues90]

W

I think if we had the picks we'd have another bit of a clean out. But I think we will hold onto a few players we probably don't need rather than delve into 4th round picks and so on.

Probably explore a few trades. I can see clubs enquiring about Casboult and Goddard. Slim chance Kennedy has interest but you never know.

Fitness will be a big deal. There are a lot of guys who aren't big and strong enough and some who haven't got their running up to scratch.

No side can have success unless it develops physicality across the board.

We have guys who are regular reserves players who will remain regular reserves players I feel but will probably remain on the list and be trickled out over time. We need to maintain a strong reserves side and it's improved a lot but it could be better.

We need to keep Goddard. Jones and Casboult both 29 he ain't going anywhere.

 

[Blues90]

The list needs stability not another massive change... players can't learn to play with each other if they keep changing

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Sorry mate, not true.
There are numerous articles dating back to December last year that outline our vacant list spots and who filled them.

Pickett was not one of them.

I can only go by what is reported. Whether it's accurate or not, this is what was reported in afl.com just prior to the mid season draft.
To be honest dd, I found it all pretty confusing, with the AFL seemingly changing the rules of eligibility along the way from a 'season ending injury', to a 'long term injury'.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-27/midseason-rookie-draft-order-your-clubs-picks

 

[Weiterbot23]

W

We need to keep Goddard. Jones and Casboult both 29 he ain't going anywhere.

One of Cas or Jones should be on the trade table

Dogs need a tall defender

Give them Crows pick, 2020 first and Jones back for Bont

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

My targets:

1. Petracca - would love to see him under a preseason with Russell. Would cost a fair bit though.

2. Martin - would slot in on a HFF. Would cost Adelaides 1st pick

3. Brodie - would spell the end for Kennedy but give us a giant midfield with Cripps and Setters. Would cost a future second.

Dreamland: Taranto, Bont

 

[gbatman]

Really well thought out and reasoned post gbatman.
I like and dislike a few, but love your reasoning. Would love to get Taranto but cannot see GWS letting him go at any cost. Would give us 3 of the very best mids in the AFL.

There are a few I could add:

1. Apparently (last nights news) there is team disharmony at Adelaide. Could we chase out of contract (OOC) Reilly O'Brien (ruck)? Still young and has upside, plus gives TDK more time to develop/depth. The angst of doing this trade would be interesting... and not sure we could get it done unless he was prepared to walk.

2. Could we try for one of Richmonds excess small forwards who want more games. Liam Baker is OOC and looks a beauty, was a rookie, only 21yo, only played 12 games, so could be cheapish (2nd rounder?), but rising star nomination may push higher. Else Shai Bolton or Dan Butler may be cheap OOC options.

3. Other notable OOC's are: Jack Billings (wing), Luke Dunstan (mid), Harry Cunningham (25yo Syd RFA), Caleb Daniel (def) or Josh Dunkley (mid). Sydney are cap squeezed and Cunningham also plays out of defence so could fill a need and add quality (Simpson replacement?) for a low cost. But Lisfranc history could be a worry and his upside is nowhere near as high as Taranto.

I would like O'Brien but I think it would cost more important players such as midfielders and small forwards which I believe should take priority over rucks. I think Kreuzer can hold the forte for a few more seasons and I think we are selling TDK short if we go out chasing a ruck. I think TDK will be ready and a very good player by the time Kreuzer is done and using prime picks on a ruck now, which we would have to to get O'Brien would be seen as a waste in a year or so time.

I'm happy to bide our time and let the ruck and small forwards be the last piece of the puzzle for good reason. Focus must be on the midfield. The successful teams have done it this way and forwards and rucks are only valuable when you have a good midfield and we don't yet.

Baker is a good option. We have third rounders and potential trades. He's a promising young player that's for sure. He's worth asking about.

Billings would be more than handy, Cunningham is alright and yes, could step into a defensive role. Daniel I don't think we have a huge need for, Dunkley would cost a bit but he would improve our side that's for sure.

I think we just need to start at the top and work our way through this.

I would be sceptical about trading our future first pick for anyone who isn't a genuine star. Two first rounders, that needs to go for someone who is averaging high 20's or 30's with their possessions and are a complete package type. I wouldn't want to miss out on an opportunity to trade for one of these types next season.

I would however do the Stocker pick swap trade again. Trade our future first for a early second or late first this season. This could get us into some serious trade territory if possible.

GWS will often have salary issues with their players. Taranto should be our number one target IMO. Two first round picks. He's probably worth more. Push Coniglio as well. I doubt we would get both as if one goes then the other would be able to stay I would think. It's important we put contract pressure on them though but also give ourselves a chance to get them

My gut feeling is that with this year's poor season and our coaching department looking really "blegh" at the moment and teams like GWS probably not being under salary pressure this year that we might not land the big names this season but I think next year if we get all this together we can do it so it all needs to play out.

The thing is if we land a few really big names this year we could really jump like Brisbane have this year. It's a big big moment for us, I just feel that we might not be attractive enough at the moment to be able to achieve it.

Ideal offseason scenario:

Trade future first (for example with Adelaide again) get Adelaide's future first and pick 19ish back to us

Trade pick 47, 37 and Casboult to Richmond (for example) for pick 31 & Small forward type

End up with
Pick 13
Pick 19
Pick 31
Plus a player, say Liam Baker for example

All future picks in tact.

Trade pick 13 and future first for a Taranto or Fiorini. One of the big young mature ball winners.
Coniglio as a RFA
Trade pick 19 for Papley & 51
Use Picks 31 and 51 how we please, probably on smaller forwards/defenders or project ruck
Maybe trade 30 and future second for Reilly O'Brien

Possibly get AFL permission to trade future second and third rounders as well if needed.

If half of that played out that would be a great result. But it may be tough if our coaching department ins't looking too great and we aren't winning games.

But if that did play out we would be expecting to play finals that's for sure.

 

[I bleed Blue]

My targets:

1. Petracca - would love to see him under a preseason with Russell. Would cost a fair bit though.

2. Martin - would slot in on a HFF. Would cost Adelaides 1st pick

3. Brodie - would spell the end for Kennedy but give us a giant midfield with Cripps and Setters. Would cost a future second.

Dreamland: Taranto, Bont

Dream scenario for me-
Coniglio - free agent cost no draft picks
Papley- 2020 first round pick with some change coming bsck
Martin- adeliade 2019 first

Desperately need some x factor zipping around in the forward line.

Also quick running HBF is another need to address.

 

[gbatman]

W

We need to keep Goddard. Jones and Casboult both 29 he ain't going anywhere.

Yes I would be firm with Goddard, obviously if someone offers overs and it leads to getting a greater played then yes by all means we would be open to a trade.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Sorry mate, not true.
There are numerous articles dating back to December last year that outline our vacant list spots and who filled them.

Pickett was not one of them.

I can only go by what is reported. Whether it's accurate or not, this is what was reported in afl.com just prior to the mid season draft.
To be honest dd, I found it all pretty confusing, with the AFL seemingly changing the rules of eligibility along the way from a 'season ending injury', to a 'long term injury'.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-27/midseason-rookie-draft-order-your-clubs-picks

View attachment 690911

Pretty sure Bamboo is right on this one.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-27/midseason-rookie-draft-order-your-clubs-picks

Last two paragraphs of the article as well. Gibbons and Cottrell were taken preseason to fill the empty rookie spot and the spot opened by Bugg. Pickett added to the LTI list ahead of the mid season draft to allow us to take DeLuca. Docherty still "indefinite" as the club didn't want to rule out a late season appearance.

 

[dlb99]

Do you take Dow or SPS out as Gibbons is performing better? or force feed games into the high draft picks as they have higher ceilings?


I think we all just need some wins for sanity, push the kids aside and throw Gibbons and Ed in the guts, lets get some wins!

We need to pick our best team to win each and every game. This team needs wins. Wins will directly lead to a better list at years end.

That means Gibbons and Ed in the middle, yes.

Good thing with the Stocker trade is there no incentive to lose, actually the opposite.

 

[gbatman]

Do you take Dow or SPS out as Gibbons is performing better? or force feed games into the high draft picks as they have higher ceilings?


I think we all just need some wins for sanity, push the kids aside and throw Gibbons and Ed in the guts, lets get some wins!

Yes. 90% of the time play your best team. The top sides develop their young players in the reserves and if a guy like Dow goes back to the reserves and has a few 30 possession games as he should and gets used to dominating and being a focus on the field then that is going to be good for his football.

SPS I don't see as needing to play reserves as he can play in a number of positions and his output is close to Gibbons.

There is nothing wrong with developing and playing young players in the reserves.

I would work around VFL KPI's. Inside players like Dow need to be getting 35-40 possessions plus in the reserves. Outside players need to be getting 26-30 possessions plus and being damaging, kicking the odd goal etc. Forwards need to be kicking 3+ goals a game. Tall backs need to be getting around 15 disposals, taking marks and beating their man. Small defenders need to be getting 25-30 plus disposals and beating their man.

AFL KPIs probably similar. Mids need to be hitting mid 20s with their possessions. Small defenders need to be hitting 20 possessions. Small forwards need to be kicking a goal a game. Tall forwards need to be kicking 2. etc etc.

Set high standards, get high results. Put young players in the VFL and when they meet their KPI's they get back in.

It would be great if we had the quality of depth to enforce this but just for now we don't quite but hey, I am all for playing young top picks in the VFL for a bit.

 

[F_therest]

Dream scenario for me-
Coniglio - free agent cost no draft picks
Papley- 2020 first round pick with some change coming bsck
Martin- adeliade 2019 first

Desperately need some x factor zipping around in the forward line.

Also quick running HBF is another need to address.

If i could only choose 1, i honestly think i'd take Papley.

Trending upwards big time, only 22 and fills a position we desperately need to fill.

 

[F_therest]

We need to pick our best team to win each and every game. This team needs wins. Wins will directly lead to a better list at years end.

That means Gibbons and Ed in the middle, yes.

Good thing with the Stocker trade is there no incentive to lose, actually the opposite.

And let's not overstate it as if we are sacrificing the development of our kids to chase wins.

Watching the Lions game again, the kids got plenty of time in the middle.

Our centre square setups inside and on the wing had guys like Walsh, Dow, LOB, Cunners, Setters, SPS & Fish rotating in those positions so they are still getting development. Add the nourishment and confidence boost of wins and there's no downside.

 

[Soapy V]

Look back 12 months ago on here and everyone was saying we had NO midfield without Cripps.

12 months on we have Cripps & Walsh who most would class as elite or will be elite. Then we have

SPS
Cuningham
Setterfield
Dow
LOB
Gibbons
Stocker
Fisher
DeLuca
Kennedy
Lang
Polson

If another 1-2 can become elite or close to and a number of the above can be very good or better we have a heck of a midfield. They are also all young, have a lot of upside and will develop together.

We will also probably add a few more at years end

 

[Blues90]

Look back 12 months ago on here and everyone was saying we had NO midfield without Cripps.

12 months on we have Cripps & Walsh who most would class as elite or will be elite. Then we have

SPS
Cuningham
Setterfield
Dow
LOB
Gibbons
Stocker
Fisher
DeLuca
Kennedy
Lang
Polson

If another 1-2 can become elite or close to and a number of the above can be very good or better we have a heck of a midfield. They are also all young, have a lot of upside and will develop together.

We will also probably add a few more at years end

1 will be cuningham... he was drafted 12 months before sps but played 28 less games and their output isn't too different except cuningham scores more his slick in the contest can turn out of some tough sittuations

 

[Moody Blue]

According to FW the list is:

1. Ben Crocker
2. Ben Reid (UFA)
3. Brayden Sier
4. Daniel Wells
5. Jack Madgen
6. Jamie Elliott (RFA)
7. John Noble
8. Levi Greenwood
9. Lynden Dunn
10. Max Lynch
11. Rupert Wills
12. Sam Murray
13. Taylor Adams
14. Tim Broomhead
15. Tom Phillips
16. Travis Varcoe
17. Tyson Goldsack (UFA)

Immediately I'm looking at Dunn, Wells, Goldsack & Reid as senior players who might be off the books next year, freeing up a decent chunk of TPP, as well as Murray although he's probably not on heaps. Then there's Greenwood, Broomhead, Varcoe who I'm not sure about. Would they might prioritise Adams, Phillips, & Elliott then Wills, Sier, and perhaps Lynch as Grundy's backup?

Phillips, Adams, Lynch, Sier and maybe Wills the ones of interest but I find it hard to believe they'd let them go at the end of the season. Plenty of older guys to jettison before then.

We haven't exactly had a great track record in chasing GWS or Collingwood players....coaches or over paid CEO's.