Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[Purpellian Anchor]

Wowee what painful reading the last few pages of this thread make. My hot take on the melts is this:

If the media (or the west) says we're doing a s**t job, posters on here automatically assume the media is wrong and offer dogged defences for Belly and co. Take for example the Brad Hill trade this year, the media were liars and Belly had a plan all along

Vs

If the media (or the west) says we've done a pretty good job and made some pretty astute moves, we melt. For example, the last few pages of bullshit on this thread.

In conclusion I believe 50% of Freo supporters posting on here lack critical thinking skills and have a severe mistrust of the media. Their default is to believe the exact opposite of what the media says before even attempting to analyse a scenario.

Thanks for reading my psychology thesis.

Beware of being self righteous... Plato's Philosopher King are they who are humble and tolerant of those less gifted...all make up this wonderful BigFooty utopia

 

[freo_leo29]

How do you work out what Carlton was going to do before our pick swap. Their strategy has more than likely changed now that they can't affect our pick 10. Do you think now they will bid when there is now zero chance of getting Henry due to the trouble we have gone to, and all if does is determine how many points we go into deficit? Maybe to keep Freo "honest" but why make the effort for no perceived benefit? Some other club will bid at some stage so at least they can say they did their due dilligence but which club and what pick will that be? Fact is, you will never be able to determine whether or not it was a stuff up unless Carlton (and Melbourne) come out later and honestly say they were never going to bid on Henry.

You are looking at the draft like its mind games or something

If Calrton rate Henry as best available they will pick him, exact same scenario as beforehand...

 

[MrDanggazz]

If all 3 of Young, Robertson and Stephens are available, what combo would everyone prefer?

Young and Stephens
Young and Robertson
Robertson and Stephens

I've made peace with getting Robertson and Stephens purely because I thought Young would be off the board but him being there complicates things. Young and Stephens sounds tantalising

Robertson and Stephens for me, some inside talent and some outside talent.

 

[Midnite65]

Not really left field but I think Serong will be right in the mix for our picks. Based on what I saw at the champs he looks good on the inside and outside, plus he can go forward, take strong overhead marks and kick goals. He looks a more complete player than Robertson IMHO.

Wasn't Serong's DE something like 47%, we need to get more talented users of the ball.

 

[Monument Hills]

You are looking at the draft like its mind games or something

If Calrton rate Henry as best available they will pick him, exact same scenario as beforehand...

sorry, but we will have to respectfully agree to disagree that it's that simple.

 

[Purple Suit]

You are looking at the draft like its mind games or something

If Calrton rate Henry as best available they will pick him, exact same scenario as beforehand...

But what happens if he is the best unavailable? Do you not bother and stand your pick up on stage instead?

 

[dexter_]

Wasn't Serong's DE something like 47%, we need to get more talented users of the ball.

no idea. Based on the eye test his kicking looked sound to me. Comparable to most other inside mids.

 

[theGav56]

We don't have much leverage when a player wants out. And suggestions that we force them to honour contracts won't make us a place players want to come to. I think we've done alright with the hand dealt

So we won't be attractive to players who are not committed to being here? I can live with that.

If they don't want to be here, don't sign a (front-loaded) contract extension, and then seek to move on for a bigger contract. The club's stance that it will only consider trades of contracted players if the trade works in the club's interests is appropriate. Running the club professionally should be what makes a club attractive, not a willingness to accept contracts being broken.

 

[malpaso]

what's the bet Hawks fix his knee and Kemp becomes the next Fyfe/Cripps.

Fixing the knee isn't the issue, it's the fact he is more susceptible to do it again. Nothing the Hawks or anybody else can do to guarantee that won't happen.

 

[wahooo]

Probably not needed as he will likely go earlier, but worried about taking Young. He is from Melbourne and has a brother on rookie list with Bullies I believe. Could see him leaving Langdon style in a few years (apparently for nothing ). Not worth the risk IMO.

I guess there's the potential that Young will go home for similar reasons to Langdon but the comparisons should stop there. Young can actually kick the ball. He's widely rated as the third best player in the draft for many reasons, there's no way he'd be leaving "for nothing". Definitely worth the risk

 

[freo_leo29]

sorry, but we will have to respectfully agree to disagree that it's that simple.

If Carlton think Henry is best available then they will take him

If Carlton don't think he is then they won't take him as they wouldn't want to risk being stuck with him, when they could have picked someone they rate higher.


I know everyone likes a conspiracy etc but in reality that is how it works.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

Sorry to say it but can't see our 2020 1st being worth more than a 1000 points in a pick exchange.

No need to be sorry for that!

 

[Sir Deadly]

If all 3 of Young, Robertson and Stephens are available, what combo would everyone prefer?

Young and Stephens
Young and Robertson
Robertson and Stephens

I've made peace with getting Robertson and Stephens purely because I thought Young would be off the board but him being there complicates things. Young and Stephens sounds tantalising

I’ll be happy with any combination that includes Robertson.

 

[Monument Hills]

I guess there's the potential that Young will go home for similar reasons to Langdon but the comparisons should stop there. Young can actually kick the ball. He's widely rated as the third best player in the draft for many reasons, there's no way he'd be leaving "for nothing". Definitely worth the risk

Disagree. Unless you're GC or GWS and you get a stack of high picks, IMO no top 10 draftee is worth the risk if they will be back home within 4y. Damages momentum and culture. Your top 10 picks (which we rarely get) should be aimed at 200+ game players. Young is a low chance for that IMO.

 

[mike91]

Disagree. Unless you're GC or GWS and you get a stack of high picks, IMO no top 10 draftee is worth the risk if they will be back home within 4y. Damages momentum and culture. Your top 10 picks (which we rarely get) should be aimed at 200+ game players. Young is a low chance for that IMO.

Purely because he's from Melbourne? Literally makes no sense. Also at the completion of this draft, we'll have 5, possibly 6 top 10 picks within the last few years.

 

[Taylor]

The picks 1 to 10 get to 200 games about 28% of the time.

All of them would have been selected with the expectation that they play 200 games.

There are no sure things.

 

[wahooo]

Disagree. Unless you're GC or GWS and you get a stack of high picks, IMO no top 10 draftee is worth the risk if they will be back home within 4y. Damages momentum and culture. Your top 10 picks (which we rarely get) should be aimed at 200+ game players. Young is a low chance for that IMO.

Hahaha mate, in that case would you have us only spend our top 10 picks on WA kids? Let's ignore the rest of Australia as they may go home in 4 years. Forget Stephens we're not interested, Rowell and Anderson can bugger off too, oh and Sam Walsh well he's a spud.

What qualifies you to speculate on the length of Young's career? Your opinion contradicts pretty much every afl journo and recruiter. Young will go early, he is quality.

Edit: I am aware Walshy went last year but was just labouring the point

 

[Monument Hills]

If Carlton think Henry is best available then they will take him

If Carlton don't think he is then they won't take him as they wouldn't want to risk being stuck with him, when they could have picked someone they rate higher.


I know everyone likes a conspiracy etc but in reality that is how it works.

Respectfully still disagree.

Carlton would have thought there would be some (albeit potentially small) chance that we considered 10 too high for Henry. Club did not publicly say we were guaranteed to take him there. Or, Freo may have someone else we wanted in mind who we preferred over Henry. Therefore, worth the bid. At worst, costs Freo a second top 10 pick (aside from Henry) and Carlton would think this is at least a small win as they are likely to be competing with us as we both move up the ladder in the next few years. i.e. one less top 10 player to fight it out against us with.

Now, we get to take Henry from any bidder for essentially a bag of chips. Zero chance of letting him go to the bidder according to all reports and reporters. No (or very little in terms of points) damage to Freo. If I was Carlton I wouldn't bother and prefer to say to my top 10 pick who you put on stage in your jumper, we really wanted you (as opposed to you were the next best in line).

There's no conspiracy theory, it's just basic strategy.

 

[freo_leo29]

Respectfully still disagree.

Carlton would have thought there would be some (albeit potentially small) chance that we considered 10 too high for Henry. Club did not publicly say we were guaranteed to take him there. Or, Freo may have someone else we wanted in mind who we preferred over Henry. Therefore, worth the bid. At worst, costs Freo a second top 10 pick (aside from Henry) and Carlton would think this is at least a small win as they are likely to be competing with us as we both move up the ladder in the next few years. i.e. one less top 10 player to fight it out against us with.

Now, we get to take Henry from any bidder for essentially a bag of chips. Zero chance of letting him go to the bidder according to all reports and reporters. No (or very little in terms of points) damage to Freo. If I was Carlton I wouldn't bother and prefer to say to my top 10 pick who you put on stage in your jumper, we really wanted you (as opposed to you were the next best in line).

There's no conspiracy theory, it's just basic strategy.

pretty sure everyone goes on the stage now that first round has its own day anyway, (that is how it worked last year) kind of blows your theory out of the water

 

[Monument Hills]

The picks 1 to 10 get to 200 games about 28% of the time.

All of them would have been selected with the expectation that they play 200 games.

There are no sure things.

That's appears like a strawman Taylor. Are you just playing devil's advocate or seriously believe in the current climate a top 10 Melbourne kid, particularly one who's brother plays for a Melbourne club, is only as much of a risk in going home as a kid from WA, SA or one e.g. who has family here (Brayshaw or potentially Ash).

 

[wahooo]

That's appears like a strawman Taylor. Are you just playing devil's advocate or seriously believe in the current climate a top 10 Melbourne kid, particularly one who's brother plays for a Melbourne club, is only as much of a risk in going home as a kid from WA, SA or one e.g. who has family here (Brayshaw or potentially Ash).

No one said the risk of going home is the same, you can't pick based purely on a player's home state. You actually have to consider the quality of the player too?

 

[Monument Hills]

pretty sure everyone goes on the stage now that first round has its own day anyway, (that is how it worked last year) kind of blows your theory out of the water

I'm sorry, my theory is blown out of the water because of how many people stand on the stage. seriously? Any problem with my actual theory?

 

[Taylor]

That's appears like a strawman Taylor. Are you just playing devil's advocate or seriously believe in the current climate a top 10 Melbourne kid, particularly one who's brother plays for a Melbourne club, is only as much of a risk in going home as a kid from WA, SA or one e.g. who has family here (Brayshaw or potentially Ash).

I'm saying that the chances we get one 200 game player out of all three picks isn't guaranteed, but Young being from Victoria doesn't factor into that.

As far as mitigating risk goes, picking only WA might take out one facet of it.

 

[freo_leo29]

I'm sorry, my theory is blown out of the water because of how many people stand on the stage. seriously? Any problem with my actual theory?

Your theory was that Blues would pick someone else at 10 so they could stand on stage with them?

11 gets to stand on stage too...

 

[Superkoops]

If Carlton think Liam Henry is worth pick 10 they bid on him. Why do they care whether we do or don’t match that bid. We have bid on a few players ourselves and wanted that player at pick x.

I doubt that has changed based on the fact that we have 7/8 (8/9). But we don’t really know what Carlton will do because we don’t know who will be available at their pick 10. If he gets pas pick 10 then he may well slide all the way to 15.

The Pick upgrade demonstrates the desire to confirm 2 picks before Liam is bid andshould give us access to two quality mid in the top 9.

Port Adelaide haven’t bundled up their multiple 60 picks and only have 6 list spots so I assume they lose two of their late 60’s picks. Leaving us with 547pts (49/58/65) and if Henry isn’t bid until 15 then that is only a deficient of 343pts.