Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

TheMcManusNose

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Tobe Watson? Is around 190/191cm but still needs to add some size to his frame but developing reasonably well at Peel. Was forced to carry the defence at times last year and played FB quite a bit.
Watson seems like a pretty reasonable prospect from what i've seen (ie. not much). Seems to be a decent size and kick.

I agree.

I was disappointed that we didn’t leave a rookie spot to be filled by a mature ruck or key back if we got an injury.
It is probably our weakest area. Can't fill every hole though.

I think Logue can fool people a bit in that he's played a bit more for us as a flanker/CHB. But he's 193cm and 101kg. Not to mention only 21 years old and is top-5 in the time trial. I'd back him to be a gun KPD/hybrid thing in a year or two. Cox only 21 too. Personally i'd rather those guys get a few games if we have a Pearce/Hamling injury rather than a mature KPD.

Ruck wise we're at Lobb/Darcy/Meek. Really need to maybe see Meek in an AFL game this year as well. 3 rucks is maybe 1 short (5 was absolutely too many) but there is the mid-season draft which would allow us to grab a mature backup as an emergency if required. Assume we might take one as a rookie next year.
 

tacopavlich

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Thrilled with the talent we have picked up. But some of the pick trading we have done has been woeful. This has really limited our hand next season. I’m not sure who is responsible for these trading decisions but some of them absolutely stank the place out. Port picked up our second rounder in 2020 (projects as a early 20’s pick to other teams given we are ranked as one of the bottom teams in the league by most other clubs). Whether we do end up near the foot of the ladder or not next season, the fact that most other sides see us as a bottom 4 or 5 side in 2020 should have meant out picks in 2020 had more value than say Richmond or GWS. Instead we got picks 52 and 55 for potentially pick 20-24. What a rubbish trade that was.
Not bidding on Tom Green was another error costing us valuable points in 2020. Got to be ruthless at this level - GWS were always going to match no matter where the bid came. Now we have an even bigger deficit than they do in 2020!!
The Adelaide/Melbourne trade was also pretty imbalanced given what we coughed up to move from 10 to 8, but it wasn’t as bad as the port Adelaide live trade after the Henry bid. We are always told you lost points to trade up but you gain points to trade down. We lost points in both scenarios!
What was clear during the draft was the massive imbalance in trades between some clubs. The likes of Geelong, the crows and port simply cleaned up for next years draft - (port also got a 2020 second rounder to move back from 22 to 23 - what a steal!).
As for the suns - well what a joke, don’t get me started. High Draft picks are like loose change to those guys!
None of these imbalanced trades would ever occur outside of live trading.
A proper experienced list manager at live trading has the potential to make major inroads for any club that is switched on enough. You’d expect those imbalanced trades to be less frequent in a couple of years as clubs cop on to the fact that there is major opportunity here.
The problem with analyzing trading is it's reciprocal. We can have the best negotiators in the world but at the end of the day we probably knew or had some idea Carlton were going to bid on Henry and then our hands were completely tied and turning 10 to 8 was always going to be an unpleasant process. Port had no obligation to deal with us at all so we didn't have much room to move. You can only reasonably argue trading is poor when walking away and doing nothing would be the better outcome, which wasn't the case since we still ended up with 3 first round quality players.

I don't particularly like Bell but it's hard to criticize when we got the desired outcome we wanted with minimal negotiating power. Not bidding on Green is the only oversight but I guess we valued goodwill over ruthlessness which I dislike but understand.
 
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theGav56

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Good will is gold.

Having picks 7,8,9 is pretty romantic and all the picks felt great.

Unless it’s a no brainer I wouldn’t bid, it pisses off the player you pick next.
That's all nice, but next year when we don't have a high enough pick to consider Grainger-Barrass because of our points deficit.... bummer. And I highly doubt Serong would be pissed off because we bid on Green.
 
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theGav56

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I don't particularly like Bell but it's hard to criticize when we got the desired outcome we wanted with minimal negotiating power. Not bidding on Green is the only oversight but I guess we valued goodwill over ruthlessness which I dislike but understand.
Ruthlessness? A number of aligned players were bid on and the bid not matched in this draft. I have no issue with Carlton bidding, and we should have anticipated it. Bidding on a player is an attempt to draft them, and quite legitimate. If Melbourne bid at pick 3 they have a real chance they get Henry.

Green at any of our picks would have been a bargain, and certainly before Serong, and we should have taken a shot. At some point they will be bid on, otherwise may as well just give clubs a free hit.
 

tacopavlich

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Ruthlessness? A number of aligned players were bid on and the bid not matched in this draft. I have no issue with Carlton bidding, and we should have anticipated it. Bidding on a player is an attempt to draft them, and quite legitimate. If Melbourne bid at pick 3 they have a real chance they get Henry.

Green at any of our picks would have been a bargain, and certainly before Serong, and we should have taken a shot. At some point they will be bid on, otherwise may as well just give clubs a free hit.
I agree it was a poor decision and not something I would have done. I would call it misguided rather than incompetent though. Carlton had every right to bid on Henry and it's a bit childish for some on here to get upset over it.
 

Walkingwounded

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Carlton had inside knowledge of Henry... May have had a input to there decision making process... or as implied by Twomey the were bidding to bide time whilst they got a down scale trade lined up.
 

blue shark

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I agree it was a poor decision and not something I would have done. I would call it misguided rather than incompetent though. Carlton had every right to bid on Henry and it's a bit childish for some on here to get upset over it.
The reality is though the GWS academy kid is Not what we were after, exactly the same with Robertson.
JLo wanted skilled, dual players, and yes Carlton wanted Henry.
Imagine GWS not matching and then taking our targeted players.
I reckon Port maybe a little pi**ed that we stole the Monaro.
 

wahooo

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That's all nice, but next year when we don't have a high enough pick to consider Grainger-Barrass because of our points deficit.... bummer. And I highly doubt Serong would be pissed off because we bid on Green.
How high are you expecting us to finish next year? I think we need to be realistic in our expectations for next year, it's quite likely that we go into next year's draft with a high pick that will only slide a little after adjusting for the deficit.

I know Grainger-Barrass is likely to go top 10 but we'd have to turn things around pretty drastically to not have a pick in the draft around about his range.

Heck I'll take the deficit and a QUALITY player with a year's development any day of the week. Let's move on
 

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more_of_bito

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Complaining about the Carlton bid is like complaining about the umps when you lose a game.
I’m with you Salim. Blues Crows could have pick swapped and we wouldn’t have got Young. If there’s a bloke imo that could be better than Fyfe it’s Young. Pendles like if he can transition into the midfield with that kick ( on both feet). We smashed this draft. Respect all have opinions and mine is those that are complaining can never be happy.
 

Purpellian Anchor

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All good, and I have confidence that we will be doing one or two trades next year and gain a few late picks even though our first pick will probably be around pick 16-20 (if our big guns stay injury free throughout).
 

Superkoops

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I’m with you Salim. Blues Crows could have pick swapped and we wouldn’t have got Young. If there’s a bloke imo that could be better than Fyfe it’s Young. Pendles like if he can transition into the midfield with that kick ( on both feet). We smashed this draft. Respect all have opinions and mine is those that are complaining can never be happy.
Apparently the offer required by Adelaide was 9 and 2020 1st for 6 and chump change. Hence Carlton pulled out because they thought 2020 2nd would get the job done.

We paid 32 and 2020 4th to go from what ended up as being 12 down to 8. GWS paid a 2020 1st to push up from 6 to 4. GCS paid 2020 1st to get pick 27 and GCS paid pick 22 to push up from 17 to 11. The deal with Melbourne was a very reasonable outcome. I felt we could have squeezed a bit more out of Adelaide.

The timing of Port trade was the issue. We had no negotiation power and had to just accept what we could to minimise the draft pts deficit. Squeezing out a 2020 pick back in our direction was a must but we had no bargaining power.

We need to learn and improve for next year and I agree forget the goodwill and be more willing to bid.
 

Purpellian Anchor

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Little bit of history on Serong; Age 16 bad collar bone break and recovered well with the support and encouragement of- guess who - Leigh Brown - the coach. Guttsy little beggar is Serong.

 

sherrif

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Little bit of history on Serong; Age 16 bad collar bone break and recovered well with the support and encouragement of- guess who - Leigh Brown - the coach. Guttsy little beggar is Serong.

Everything about him points to the fact he will make the most of every opportunity. Has a little of the Joel Selwood attitude on the field.
 

theGav56

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How high are you expecting us to finish next year? I think we need to be realistic in our expectations for next year, it's quite likely that we go into next year's draft with a high pick that will only slide a little after adjusting for the deficit.

I know Grainger-Barrass is likely to go top 10 but we'd have to turn things around pretty drastically to not have a pick in the draft around about his range.

Heck I'll take the deficit and a QUALITY player with a year's development any day of the week. Let's move on
Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
 

theGav56

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I reckon Port maybe a little pi**ed that we stole the Monaro.
I'm not clear about his situation re being a Power NGA.

His twin was drafted last year, which to me suggests they may both have been NGA last year. Having not taken him last year he is then freely available. Their call if that's the case.
 

rgauci

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Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
We’ve made some ridiculously good trades recently, Hamling, Wilson, B.Hill etc.

It’s when we trade futures we do poorly.
 

theGav56

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We’ve made some ridiculously good trades recently, Hamling, Wilson, B.Hill etc.

It’s when we trade futures we do poorly.
Yes. It surprises me that we can get one so right, and then drop away in the other. Been a good period over all for us though.
 

blue shark

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Yes. It surprises me that we can get one so right, and then drop away in the other. Been a good period over all for us though.
That period between 2001-2006 for the Hawks though they nailed only two draft year top picks, and 2007 when they picked Rioli.
They also missed plenty, 2001 was supposedly a super draft where they got Hodge, but Mitchell was a pick in the thirties.
04's three top ten picks fixed their list holes, and Cyril was the cherry on top in 07.
01-06 period was five top ten pick winners out of 8. Xavier Ellis was a priority pick.
From 2016-2019 we have six top ten picks. Logue, Brayshaw, Cerra, Young, Serong, Henry.
Going by the above we still need to nail the 2020 first round pick, but none of our picks appear a bust :) :)
Also I haven't added in the Hogan factor, and Aish at pick 7.
If people are still complaining just doing the maths it appears we are tracking well?
 

theGav56

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If people are still complaining just doing the maths it appears we are tracking well?
I assume the complaining comment is directed at me, which I am not. I am commenting on a discussion board about things that our club can do to improve. Pretty standard fare I would think, and stuff that the club would almost certainly be undertaking themselves in a post-draft review, especially given that they seemed unprepared for the Henry bid before the Green bid. In the future I expect them to be prepared rather than surprised.

This is an area that Bell has under his control, and along with S&C they are critical to any future success. It is also about a club ethos. One of the things I was really pleased with the drafting of Young and Serong is that I see a clear strategy from the club about our list management. They weren't distracted by smaller issues such as the state of origin of the players, or the status of individuals such as Robertson. For me, they had some moments they could have done better, but in general did well.
 

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