Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

wahooo

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Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
Hahahaha in what strange universe is where we finish not relevant? It's a competition, the idea is to rank teams. Where we finish is completely relevant, it'll determine what picks we get or whether you hold a premiership.

I don't doubt the club did everything they could to protect themselves as best they could from a bid, moving from 10 to 8 got us another top ten talent. You negative nancy's keep banging on about how the club could have done better but you have no way of telling what efforts the club made. No one on here can tell me the club didn't push for 45 from Adelaide instead of 49 or that we didn't ask for higher picks from Port, you simply have no way of knowing. But sure you can repeat it until you turn black and blue.

My let's move on advice wasn't for the club but good job, some of your best work there mate. Bloody hell, I hope the club doesn't think "where we finish is irrelevant" I hope they think "let's improve and learn from this".
 

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theGav56

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Hahahaha in what strange universe is where we finish not relevant? It's a competition, the idea is to rank teams. Where we finish is completely relevant, it'll determine what picks we get or whether you hold a premiership.

I don't doubt the club did everything they could to protect themselves as best they could from a bid, moving from 10 to 8 got us another top ten talent. You negative nancy's keep banging on about how the club could have done better but you have no way of telling what efforts the club made. No one on here can tell me the club didn't push for 45 from Adelaide instead of 49 or that we didn't ask for higher picks from Port, you simply have no way of knowing. But sure you can repeat it until you turn black and blue.

My let's move on advice wasn't for the club but good job, some of your best work there mate. Bloody hell, I hope the club doesn't think "where we finish is irrelevant" I hope they think "let's improve and learn from this".
You seem pretty agitated by the idea of a discussion and want to see things in terms of "negative nancy" style comments.

My not relevant comment is about the discussion point. The comment has no connection to where we finish on the ladder. Regardless of where we finish on the ladder our first round pick will be degraded by the points deficit, and that was unnecessary. On the other hand, how we perform at the draft and in all facets of List Management is totally relevant to where we finish on the ladder.

List Management it underpins where we finish. How the club performs in all facets of its off-field operations is the starting point for on-field results, and that includes the draft. Our history has been defined by a lack of fastidiousness in our off-field work and it remains an area we need to continuously improve.

If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit. Most draft watchers would take Green ahead of Serong, and I certainly would (and more relevantly GWS recruiters would too which is why they had traded up in the first place).

Smart work by Carlton, and we shouldn't have given them the opportunity.
 

Dockeroo

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
 

theGav56

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
O'Driscoll is terrific midfielder. Grainger-Barrass is a Key Defender. There is also a ruck/forward from SA called Thilthorpe who will be top rated. Draft picks before the NGA's/etc are going to be highly valued.
 

blue shark

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
I think it really depends on Hogan for us, he is our X factor key forward and the only one capable of kicking over 40 goals if fit.
The others may help in Tabs, Cox, Lobb, but for me it's Hogan.
If he struggles with injury, Navicular always plays up we can make finals, but winning a GF?
Going by history ruckman are not so important in grand finals, you can cover, the back line can be juggled to function.
The forward line needs to be very good, overall quality, for me its another first round forward.
 

wahooo

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You seem pretty agitated by the idea of a discussion and want to see things in terms of "negative nancy" style comments.

My not relevant comment is about the discussion point. The comment has no connection to where we finish on the ladder. Regardless of where we finish on the ladder our first round pick will be degraded by the points deficit, and that was unnecessary. On the other hand, how we perform at the draft and in all facets of List Management is totally relevant to where we finish on the ladder.

List Management it underpins where we finish. How the club performs in all facets of its off-field operations is the starting point for on-field results, and that includes the draft. Our history has been defined by a lack of fastidiousness in our off-field work and it remains an area we need to continuously improve.

If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit. Most draft watchers would take Green ahead of Serong, and I certainly would (and more relevantly GWS recruiters would too which is why they had traded up in the first place).

Smart work by Carlton, and we shouldn't have given them the opportunity.
I'm not at all agitated by the idea of a discussion you've come to that conclusion yourself. I'm sorry if my tone upsets you, I certainly don't consider anything I said to be overly combative.

Our discussion has been regarding next year's draft pick, which is tied directly to where we finish on the ladder next year and then the deficit will be subtracted from that. It could not be more relevant. I was simply saying that even after the deficit is applied to our pick we'll likely still have a pick in the range that Grainger-Barass is likely to go. I'm not overly optimistic about next year.

And look, the deficit isn't ideal but it's not the end of the world. This board has been consumed by comments of we could have got pick x or y, or as you (and many others) have pointed out we could have bid. We did well at the draft and I think the extra development we get out of 3 top 10 picks will be worth the minor deficit.
 

Superkoops

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What will be will be.

I predict we’ll finish somewhere between 10-16th on the ladder. Will be close around that range. That will mean we end up with a top 15 pick (prob even top 12) after the deficit has been applied. I also expect Melbourne to be around that mark or best case for them squeeze into 8. That will mean a second pick around late 20’s to early 30’s.

So we’ll prob end up with something like 13, 30. We have some academy kids rated around the 2nd to 3rd round so will need to work on bringing a couple of 3rd/4th round picks in. We can offset the lack of picks by picking a FA. Mason Wood comes to mind. Someone we were reportedly interested in trading for at low cost in the knowledge he is a 2020 FA.
 
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theGav56

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And look, the deficit isn't ideal but it's not the end of the world. This board has been consumed by comments of we could have got pick x or y, or as you (and many others) have pointed out we could have bid. We did well at the draft and I think the extra development we get out of 3 top 10 picks will be worth the minor deficit.
Nobody is saying it is the end of the world either. But it is an area we can improve. And if we don't improve at every opportunity, we lose out.

I am not sure if you are actually getting what I am saying. We still get 3 top 10 picks, and almost certainly the same players we drafted. Nothing changes, apart from we pay for the Henry bid within this draft, not into next year. The minor deficit you mention is actually quite significant.

This draft we just witnessed the value that a couple of positions make especially in the top 10 selections. And despite our draft haul, we are very much in need of elite talent, and to a large extent that gets determined by a couple of draft picks spots up or down. It can be the difference between Mathew Pavlich and Leigh Brown for example. In this draft we just saw clubs paying 2 x first round draft picks to shift up a couple of spots.

I also expect that next year early draft picks will be priced at an absolute premium because clubs will be scrambling to get picks ahead of where their aligned players are going to be bid. just as happened this year, but with more players being linked via NGA etc, and more clubs scrambling for those early picks.
 

Dockeroo

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This year, clubs like ourselves and GWS tended to pay for first round academy bids with a suite of junk picks, in the 40s 50s etc. that’s all good and well when there’s only a handful of academy players in the top end of the draft. But next year, there will apparently be several of these types. Clubs can’t all have low end picks so some clubs will have to pay for these bids with what would be considered decent picks - ie late first rounders and early seconds.. what will that dynamic do to the draft next year? It’s quite interesting.
 

theGav56

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This year, clubs like ourselves and GWS tended to pay for first round academy bids with a suite of junk picks, in the 40s 50s etc. that’s all good and well when there’s only a handful of academy players in the top end of the draft. But next year, there will apparently be several of these types. Clubs can’t all have low end picks so some clubs will have to pay for these bids with what would be considered decent picks - ie late first rounders and early seconds.. what will that dynamic do to the draft next year? It’s quite interesting.
Yes it is going to be interesting and clubs will need to be quite strategic about it. This year we did the right move getting ahead of Carlton's pick, and also having cover if one of our other NGAs was bid on. Next year will be much more 3D, and Carlton already began the 2020 game by forcing our hand.
 

Hazelsnuts

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I thought we could reduce the deficit by trading picks and accumulating picks during the trade period next year?
Or is the deficit only applied to the 1st pick at the end of this years draft?
I did think it was somehow salvageable?
 

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Taylor

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I thought we could reduce the deficit by trading picks and accumulating picks during the trade period next year?
Or is the deficit only applied to the 1st pick at the end of this years draft?
I did think it was somehow salvageable?
The points are deducted at the end of the 2020 season before the trade period.
 

Paracleet

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If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit.
Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
 

blue shark

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
 

Lach72

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
In their situation it's a no brainer
 

tants

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Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
Have you accounted for our picks moving up after GWS used their late picks? I thought our late picks effectively stayed the same.
 

Monument Hills

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
I would have done the same (sold the farm) for Kelly.

WC had 17 of their 22 in their losing semi final that were 27y or older. They have probably one or two more goes at it before well and truly going off a cliff. Kelly could get them over the line next year and it's been worth every pick they've given up. The biggest issue they will have next year is carefully managing their oldies through the season to be ready for finals. JK is on last legs but when on field they rarely lose. I saw the stats a while back but from memory with Darling and JK, they hardly lose, with one of them - win about 50% of the time, and when both were out, generally lost. Nic nat will have to be in cotton wool for the finals. Other injuries to key players avoided as much as possible. Will be interesting to see if they win a flag with Kelly, or the inj. and old age stacks up and they start to decline late in the year like us and north circa '15.

Good thing for us, is for once we'll be on the way up without WC also doing the same (they'll be going the other way fast) so we can maximise derby wins for ladder effect like they have the past few years.

Hope for Kelly's sake he chose right. He may pull off a premiership in the next year or two, or spend the rest of his career leading WC through a big rebuild at the bottom.
 
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Paracleet

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Have you accounted for our picks moving up after GWS used their late picks? I thought our late picks effectively stayed the same.
Yes you're right, it only effects the picks where more than two in between are consumed, otherwise they move down one then back up one.

So I actually ran the numbers and I was wrong, we should have bid with the benefit of hindsight (apologies theGav56). It would have pushed us just under the cut off for deficit exhaustion:
2019-12-02 10_01_02-Book1 - Excel.png


I suppose while they had planned for Carlton to bid they didn't conceive of a circumstance where Green was still on the table, but they bid on Henry first anyway. Not sure it would have been the right thing to do even if they had anticipated it, as it's a pretty small return for publically telling Serong he wasn't next on our list.
 

blue shark

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They paid a lot though, and if he wanted to come to Freo i'd have reservations about paying what the Toast paid personally.
He's only 1 player, and will be 25 next year ??
I'm sort of glad he didn't want to come to Cockburn actually
If they had taken Kelly before Allen though, this is where Mark Dufield has it wrong. WC would
Of absolutely smashed the second round this year with Robertson, Rivers, Sharp, Taylor on the board.
 

Superkoops

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Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
After listening to the likes of ole mate and his best bud Sumich bang on about how things would have been so much better if we got pick 6 so I decided to go through and check this myself with similar trades, see below:

Langdon, 26 > 22, 2020 2nd
BHill > 6, Acres
2020 3rd, 2020 4th > Aish, 2020 4th
2020 2nd > 52+55

The net affect is we have been in a better position but only slightly. That is at least 1 4th round pick for 2020 and the points deficit wiped. This assumes that Collingwood would have accepted 3rd round pick (which we didn’t have) and St Kilda offering Acres with pick 6 which they did not just prior to trading it away. It also assumes that St Kilda definitely intended offering pick 6, given that without them splitting that pick I can’t see how they would have got all their trades done.

In the other scenario of us actually bidding on Green at 8 it would have saved us 59pts:
10 = 1395 x 0.8 = 1116
9 = 1469 x 0.8 = 1175

Look these are matters for the board to review. We could have done better but we did ok. Live trading and bidding is certainly an area for us to improve on and quickly because it becomes critical with all the academy and F/S draftees coming into the mix starting 2020.
 

theGav56

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Yes you're right, it only effects the picks where more than two in between are consumed, otherwise they move down one then back up one.

So I actually ran the numbers and I was wrong, we should have bid with the benefit of hindsight (apologies theGav56). It would have pushed us just under the cut off for deficit exhaustion:
View attachment 787884

I suppose while they had planned for Carlton to bid they didn't conceive of a circumstance where Green was still on the table, but they bid on Henry first anyway. Not sure it would have been the right thing to do even if they had anticipated it, as it's a pretty small return for publically telling Serong he wasn't next on our list.
No apologies necessary.

I want our off-field to set the bar as high as we expect for the on-field and vice versa.

On-field often talk is about the importance of the one percent-ers, and just as after a game, our recruiting guys would do a debrief about the draft and learn any lessons that are available to them for next time. Bidding on Green is possibly a one percent-er which could translate into a better first round pick next season. Equally, deciding not to bid on Green could be the decision they decide is the best way to go. Either way, I want to have the confidence they are ahead of the game rather than victims of it, which is what I think happened this time around.
 

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