Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

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more_of_bito

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Complaining about the Carlton bid is like complaining about the umps when you lose a game.
I’m with you Salim. Blues Crows could have pick swapped and we wouldn’t have got Young. If there’s a bloke imo that could be better than Fyfe it’s Young. Pendles like if he can transition into the midfield with that kick ( on both feet). We smashed this draft. Respect all have opinions and mine is those that are complaining can never be happy.
 

Purpellian Anchor

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All good, and I have confidence that we will be doing one or two trades next year and gain a few late picks even though our first pick will probably be around pick 16-20 (if our big guns stay injury free throughout).
 

Superkoops

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I’m with you Salim. Blues Crows could have pick swapped and we wouldn’t have got Young. If there’s a bloke imo that could be better than Fyfe it’s Young. Pendles like if he can transition into the midfield with that kick ( on both feet). We smashed this draft. Respect all have opinions and mine is those that are complaining can never be happy.
Apparently the offer required by Adelaide was 9 and 2020 1st for 6 and chump change. Hence Carlton pulled out because they thought 2020 2nd would get the job done.

We paid 32 and 2020 4th to go from what ended up as being 12 down to 8. GWS paid a 2020 1st to push up from 6 to 4. GCS paid 2020 1st to get pick 27 and GCS paid pick 22 to push up from 17 to 11. The deal with Melbourne was a very reasonable outcome. I felt we could have squeezed a bit more out of Adelaide.

The timing of Port trade was the issue. We had no negotiation power and had to just accept what we could to minimise the draft pts deficit. Squeezing out a 2020 pick back in our direction was a must but we had no bargaining power.

We need to learn and improve for next year and I agree forget the goodwill and be more willing to bid.
 

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Purpellian Anchor

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Little bit of history on Serong; Age 16 bad collar bone break and recovered well with the support and encouragement of- guess who - Leigh Brown - the coach. Guttsy little beggar is Serong.

 

sherrif

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Little bit of history on Serong; Age 16 bad collar bone break and recovered well with the support and encouragement of- guess who - Leigh Brown - the coach. Guttsy little beggar is Serong.

Everything about him points to the fact he will make the most of every opportunity. Has a little of the Joel Selwood attitude on the field.
 

theGav56

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How high are you expecting us to finish next year? I think we need to be realistic in our expectations for next year, it's quite likely that we go into next year's draft with a high pick that will only slide a little after adjusting for the deficit.

I know Grainger-Barrass is likely to go top 10 but we'd have to turn things around pretty drastically to not have a pick in the draft around about his range.

Heck I'll take the deficit and a QUALITY player with a year's development any day of the week. Let's move on
Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
 

theGav56

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I reckon Port maybe a little pi**ed that we stole the Monaro.
I'm not clear about his situation re being a Power NGA.

His twin was drafted last year, which to me suggests they may both have been NGA last year. Having not taken him last year he is then freely available. Their call if that's the case.
 

rgauci

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Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
We’ve made some ridiculously good trades recently, Hamling, Wilson, B.Hill etc.

It’s when we trade futures we do poorly.
 

theGav56

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We’ve made some ridiculously good trades recently, Hamling, Wilson, B.Hill etc.

It’s when we trade futures we do poorly.
Yes. It surprises me that we can get one so right, and then drop away in the other. Been a good period over all for us though.
 

blue shark

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Yes. It surprises me that we can get one so right, and then drop away in the other. Been a good period over all for us though.
That period between 2001-2006 for the Hawks though they nailed only two draft year top picks, and 2007 when they picked Rioli.
They also missed plenty, 2001 was supposedly a super draft where they got Hodge, but Mitchell was a pick in the thirties.
04's three top ten picks fixed their list holes, and Cyril was the cherry on top in 07.
01-06 period was five top ten pick winners out of 8. Xavier Ellis was a priority pick.
From 2016-2019 we have six top ten picks. Logue, Brayshaw, Cerra, Young, Serong, Henry.
Going by the above we still need to nail the 2020 first round pick, but none of our picks appear a bust :) :)
Also I haven't added in the Hogan factor, and Aish at pick 7.
If people are still complaining just doing the maths it appears we are tracking well?
 

theGav56

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If people are still complaining just doing the maths it appears we are tracking well?
I assume the complaining comment is directed at me, which I am not. I am commenting on a discussion board about things that our club can do to improve. Pretty standard fare I would think, and stuff that the club would almost certainly be undertaking themselves in a post-draft review, especially given that they seemed unprepared for the Henry bid before the Green bid. In the future I expect them to be prepared rather than surprised.

This is an area that Bell has under his control, and along with S&C they are critical to any future success. It is also about a club ethos. One of the things I was really pleased with the drafting of Young and Serong is that I see a clear strategy from the club about our list management. They weren't distracted by smaller issues such as the state of origin of the players, or the status of individuals such as Robertson. For me, they had some moments they could have done better, but in general did well.
 

wahooo

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Grainger-Barrass is an example, and where we finish is irrelevant. If the club had anticipated a bid at that stage we could/should have taken steps to protect our position. If you translate those points to this draft it could perhaps mean the opportunity to have secured Stephens and Young instead of Young and Serong. It is definitely worth having that kind of option available.

Draft and trading is a major plank in a club's strategy to build a finals and premiership tilt from. As with on-field the club needs to do everything possible to get it all right. It has its own skill set that can be improved (I think we could use someone with better strategic thinking involved in draft trading, and are short staffed). It is a critical area of our club where we need to do the very best that we can.

I really hope that after looking back over their work they don't come away with"Lets move on". I hope they come away with "Let's improve and learn from this".
Hahahaha in what strange universe is where we finish not relevant? It's a competition, the idea is to rank teams. Where we finish is completely relevant, it'll determine what picks we get or whether you hold a premiership.

I don't doubt the club did everything they could to protect themselves as best they could from a bid, moving from 10 to 8 got us another top ten talent. You negative nancy's keep banging on about how the club could have done better but you have no way of telling what efforts the club made. No one on here can tell me the club didn't push for 45 from Adelaide instead of 49 or that we didn't ask for higher picks from Port, you simply have no way of knowing. But sure you can repeat it until you turn black and blue.

My let's move on advice wasn't for the club but good job, some of your best work there mate. Bloody hell, I hope the club doesn't think "where we finish is irrelevant" I hope they think "let's improve and learn from this".
 

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theGav56

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Hahahaha in what strange universe is where we finish not relevant? It's a competition, the idea is to rank teams. Where we finish is completely relevant, it'll determine what picks we get or whether you hold a premiership.

I don't doubt the club did everything they could to protect themselves as best they could from a bid, moving from 10 to 8 got us another top ten talent. You negative nancy's keep banging on about how the club could have done better but you have no way of telling what efforts the club made. No one on here can tell me the club didn't push for 45 from Adelaide instead of 49 or that we didn't ask for higher picks from Port, you simply have no way of knowing. But sure you can repeat it until you turn black and blue.

My let's move on advice wasn't for the club but good job, some of your best work there mate. Bloody hell, I hope the club doesn't think "where we finish is irrelevant" I hope they think "let's improve and learn from this".
You seem pretty agitated by the idea of a discussion and want to see things in terms of "negative nancy" style comments.

My not relevant comment is about the discussion point. The comment has no connection to where we finish on the ladder. Regardless of where we finish on the ladder our first round pick will be degraded by the points deficit, and that was unnecessary. On the other hand, how we perform at the draft and in all facets of List Management is totally relevant to where we finish on the ladder.

List Management it underpins where we finish. How the club performs in all facets of its off-field operations is the starting point for on-field results, and that includes the draft. Our history has been defined by a lack of fastidiousness in our off-field work and it remains an area we need to continuously improve.

If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit. Most draft watchers would take Green ahead of Serong, and I certainly would (and more relevantly GWS recruiters would too which is why they had traded up in the first place).

Smart work by Carlton, and we shouldn't have given them the opportunity.
 

Dockeroo

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
 

theGav56

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
O'Driscoll is terrific midfielder. Grainger-Barrass is a Key Defender. There is also a ruck/forward from SA called Thilthorpe who will be top rated. Draft picks before the NGA's/etc are going to be highly valued.
 

blue shark

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Where does Grainger Barass play? Defender? Also is he any relation to the Barass guy at the eagles I wonder. I heard something about an o’Driscoll kid from WA who is also in the mix for the first round next season, apparently his sister plays for freos AFLW side..
Hopefully we will have a big year in 2020 and that first rounder slides right back though!
I think it really depends on Hogan for us, he is our X factor key forward and the only one capable of kicking over 40 goals if fit.
The others may help in Tabs, Cox, Lobb, but for me it's Hogan.
If he struggles with injury, Navicular always plays up we can make finals, but winning a GF?
Going by history ruckman are not so important in grand finals, you can cover, the back line can be juggled to function.
The forward line needs to be very good, overall quality, for me its another first round forward.
 

wahooo

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You seem pretty agitated by the idea of a discussion and want to see things in terms of "negative nancy" style comments.

My not relevant comment is about the discussion point. The comment has no connection to where we finish on the ladder. Regardless of where we finish on the ladder our first round pick will be degraded by the points deficit, and that was unnecessary. On the other hand, how we perform at the draft and in all facets of List Management is totally relevant to where we finish on the ladder.

List Management it underpins where we finish. How the club performs in all facets of its off-field operations is the starting point for on-field results, and that includes the draft. Our history has been defined by a lack of fastidiousness in our off-field work and it remains an area we need to continuously improve.

If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit. Most draft watchers would take Green ahead of Serong, and I certainly would (and more relevantly GWS recruiters would too which is why they had traded up in the first place).

Smart work by Carlton, and we shouldn't have given them the opportunity.
I'm not at all agitated by the idea of a discussion you've come to that conclusion yourself. I'm sorry if my tone upsets you, I certainly don't consider anything I said to be overly combative.

Our discussion has been regarding next year's draft pick, which is tied directly to where we finish on the ladder next year and then the deficit will be subtracted from that. It could not be more relevant. I was simply saying that even after the deficit is applied to our pick we'll likely still have a pick in the range that Grainger-Barass is likely to go. I'm not overly optimistic about next year.

And look, the deficit isn't ideal but it's not the end of the world. This board has been consumed by comments of we could have got pick x or y, or as you (and many others) have pointed out we could have bid. We did well at the draft and I think the extra development we get out of 3 top 10 picks will be worth the minor deficit.
 

Superkoops

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What will be will be.

I predict we’ll finish somewhere between 10-16th on the ladder. Will be close around that range. That will mean we end up with a top 15 pick (prob even top 12) after the deficit has been applied. I also expect Melbourne to be around that mark or best case for them squeeze into 8. That will mean a second pick around late 20’s to early 30’s.

So we’ll prob end up with something like 13, 30. We have some academy kids rated around the 2nd to 3rd round so will need to work on bringing a couple of 3rd/4th round picks in. We can offset the lack of picks by picking a FA. Mason Wood comes to mind. Someone we were reportedly interested in trading for at low cost in the knowledge he is a 2020 FA.
 
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theGav56

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And look, the deficit isn't ideal but it's not the end of the world. This board has been consumed by comments of we could have got pick x or y, or as you (and many others) have pointed out we could have bid. We did well at the draft and I think the extra development we get out of 3 top 10 picks will be worth the minor deficit.
Nobody is saying it is the end of the world either. But it is an area we can improve. And if we don't improve at every opportunity, we lose out.

I am not sure if you are actually getting what I am saying. We still get 3 top 10 picks, and almost certainly the same players we drafted. Nothing changes, apart from we pay for the Henry bid within this draft, not into next year. The minor deficit you mention is actually quite significant.

This draft we just witnessed the value that a couple of positions make especially in the top 10 selections. And despite our draft haul, we are very much in need of elite talent, and to a large extent that gets determined by a couple of draft picks spots up or down. It can be the difference between Mathew Pavlich and Leigh Brown for example. In this draft we just saw clubs paying 2 x first round draft picks to shift up a couple of spots.

I also expect that next year early draft picks will be priced at an absolute premium because clubs will be scrambling to get picks ahead of where their aligned players are going to be bid. just as happened this year, but with more players being linked via NGA etc, and more clubs scrambling for those early picks.
 

Dockeroo

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This year, clubs like ourselves and GWS tended to pay for first round academy bids with a suite of junk picks, in the 40s 50s etc. that’s all good and well when there’s only a handful of academy players in the top end of the draft. But next year, there will apparently be several of these types. Clubs can’t all have low end picks so some clubs will have to pay for these bids with what would be considered decent picks - ie late first rounders and early seconds.. what will that dynamic do to the draft next year? It’s quite interesting.
 

theGav56

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This year, clubs like ourselves and GWS tended to pay for first round academy bids with a suite of junk picks, in the 40s 50s etc. that’s all good and well when there’s only a handful of academy players in the top end of the draft. But next year, there will apparently be several of these types. Clubs can’t all have low end picks so some clubs will have to pay for these bids with what would be considered decent picks - ie late first rounders and early seconds.. what will that dynamic do to the draft next year? It’s quite interesting.
Yes it is going to be interesting and clubs will need to be quite strategic about it. This year we did the right move getting ahead of Carlton's pick, and also having cover if one of our other NGAs was bid on. Next year will be much more 3D, and Carlton already began the 2020 game by forcing our hand.
 

Hazelsnuts

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I thought we could reduce the deficit by trading picks and accumulating picks during the trade period next year?
Or is the deficit only applied to the 1st pick at the end of this years draft?
I did think it was somehow salvageable?
 

Taylor

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I thought we could reduce the deficit by trading picks and accumulating picks during the trade period next year?
Or is the deficit only applied to the 1st pick at the end of this years draft?
I did think it was somehow salvageable?
The points are deducted at the end of the 2020 season before the trade period.
 

Paracleet

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If you think they had anticipated that bid prior to a bid on Green (which is the entire reason we have a points deficit) then we see things differently. In review, if the club had bid on Green at the Serong pick, we either end up with Green or Serong, and also with no 2020 points deficit.
Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
 

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