Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

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blue shark

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
 

Lach72

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
In their situation it's a no brainer
 

Nothing

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Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
Have you accounted for our picks moving up after GWS used their late picks? I thought our late picks effectively stayed the same.
 

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Monument Hills

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Interesting post on the main board about WC and how Kelly will lift them into the GF. They have traded twice their
first round picks,, and the later second rounds.
We seem to be fine trading second, third, etc, but keep our firsts.
Short term gain, but in a few years? Apparently their trade manager is a genius.
Moneyball?
I would have done the same (sold the farm) for Kelly.

WC had 17 of their 22 in their losing semi final that were 27y or older. They have probably one or two more goes at it before well and truly going off a cliff. Kelly could get them over the line next year and it's been worth every pick they've given up. The biggest issue they will have next year is carefully managing their oldies through the season to be ready for finals. JK is on last legs but when on field they rarely lose. I saw the stats a while back but from memory with Darling and JK, they hardly lose, with one of them - win about 50% of the time, and when both were out, generally lost. Nic nat will have to be in cotton wool for the finals. Other injuries to key players avoided as much as possible. Will be interesting to see if they win a flag with Kelly, or the inj. and old age stacks up and they start to decline late in the year like us and north circa '15.

Good thing for us, is for once we'll be on the way up without WC also doing the same (they'll be going the other way fast) so we can maximise derby wins for ladder effect like they have the past few years.

Hope for Kelly's sake he chose right. He may pull off a premiership in the next year or two, or spend the rest of his career leading WC through a big rebuild at the bottom.
 
Last edited:

Paracleet

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Have you accounted for our picks moving up after GWS used their late picks? I thought our late picks effectively stayed the same.
Yes you're right, it only effects the picks where more than two in between are consumed, otherwise they move down one then back up one.

So I actually ran the numbers and I was wrong, we should have bid with the benefit of hindsight (apologies theGav56). It would have pushed us just under the cut off for deficit exhaustion:
2019-12-02 10_01_02-Book1 - Excel.png


I suppose while they had planned for Carlton to bid they didn't conceive of a circumstance where Green was still on the table, but they bid on Henry first anyway. Not sure it would have been the right thing to do even if they had anticipated it, as it's a pretty small return for publically telling Serong he wasn't next on our list.
 

blue shark

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They paid a lot though, and if he wanted to come to Freo i'd have reservations about paying what the Toast paid personally.
He's only 1 player, and will be 25 next year ??
I'm sort of glad he didn't want to come to Cockburn actually
If they had taken Kelly before Allen though, this is where Mark Dufield has it wrong. WC would
Of absolutely smashed the second round this year with Robertson, Rivers, Sharp, Taylor on the board.
 

Superkoops

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Pretty sure this is not right. If we had bid on Green at 8 it would have reduced by 80 points the amount we had to match, but would have devalued the picks we traded for, and our existing late picks, by around 50 points. We would still have a deficit.

Its speculation as to if we had anticipated this exact scenario or not (and hence done “badly”). However on balanced I’d say it was factored in and the trade we had organised for it was more or less the best we could do. I.E. we were prepared to cop the penalty.

There has been a fair bit of complaint in here about what we got for our future picks. Looking at the enormous write down in value every club got for their futures frankly I’m surprised. People need to get it through their heads futures are intiniscally devalued by their very nature.
After listening to the likes of ole mate and his best bud Sumich bang on about how things would have been so much better if we got pick 6 so I decided to go through and check this myself with similar trades, see below:

Langdon, 26 > 22, 2020 2nd
BHill > 6, Acres
2020 3rd, 2020 4th > Aish, 2020 4th
2020 2nd > 52+55

The net affect is we have been in a better position but only slightly. That is at least 1 4th round pick for 2020 and the points deficit wiped. This assumes that Collingwood would have accepted 3rd round pick (which we didn’t have) and St Kilda offering Acres with pick 6 which they did not just prior to trading it away. It also assumes that St Kilda definitely intended offering pick 6, given that without them splitting that pick I can’t see how they would have got all their trades done.

In the other scenario of us actually bidding on Green at 8 it would have saved us 59pts:
10 = 1395 x 0.8 = 1116
9 = 1469 x 0.8 = 1175

Look these are matters for the board to review. We could have done better but we did ok. Live trading and bidding is certainly an area for us to improve on and quickly because it becomes critical with all the academy and F/S draftees coming into the mix starting 2020.
 

theGav56

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Yes you're right, it only effects the picks where more than two in between are consumed, otherwise they move down one then back up one.

So I actually ran the numbers and I was wrong, we should have bid with the benefit of hindsight (apologies theGav56). It would have pushed us just under the cut off for deficit exhaustion:
View attachment 787884

I suppose while they had planned for Carlton to bid they didn't conceive of a circumstance where Green was still on the table, but they bid on Henry first anyway. Not sure it would have been the right thing to do even if they had anticipated it, as it's a pretty small return for publically telling Serong he wasn't next on our list.
No apologies necessary.

I want our off-field to set the bar as high as we expect for the on-field and vice versa.

On-field often talk is about the importance of the one percent-ers, and just as after a game, our recruiting guys would do a debrief about the draft and learn any lessons that are available to them for next time. Bidding on Green is possibly a one percent-er which could translate into a better first round pick next season. Equally, deciding not to bid on Green could be the decision they decide is the best way to go. Either way, I want to have the confidence they are ahead of the game rather than victims of it, which is what I think happened this time around.
 

theGav56

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If they had taken Kelly before Allen though, this is where Mark Dufield has it wrong. WC would
Of absolutely smashed the second round this year with Robertson, Rivers, Sharp, Taylor on the board.
That's amazing. I am not a fan of the big trades, and your post confirms that for me. There are probably times when it is the right move(Richmond with Lynch), and maybe that will be the case with Kelly and WC, but I don't see it.
 

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wild side

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Still a joke though, how he could end up at the strongest club in the land shows you the system is very corrupt.
He is going to be very hard to stop next season after only 1 year at Tigerland
 

maccamk

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It makes little sense the way that most assess trading and the draft. People use the most visible index which is draft pick points which is very one dimensional.

Unfortunately points don’t play games, kick goals or dispose the football effectively.

If you you really want to understand the impact of drafting and trade you need to look at the number of games played by draft pick overlaid with quality of those games played (not all games played are equal).

Until someone has done that analysis can we please stop throwing stones at our list management team.




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Snuffaluphagus

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It makes little sense the way that most assess trading and the draft. People use the most visible index which is draft pick points which is very one dimensional.

Unfortunately points don’t play games, kick goals or dispose the football effectively.

If you you really want to understand the impact of drafting and trade you need to look at the number of games played by draft pick overlaid with quality of those games played (not all games played are equal).

Until someone has done that analysis can we please stop throwing stones at our list management team.




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I don’t get this. We are on a discussion forum for discussing football. People are allowed to be critical where they are doing it calmly and respectfully. No one is angry, no one is saying the list management team are morons just saying there is clear and obvious room for improvement...
 

Johnny Dalmas

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I don’t get this. We are on a discussion forum for discussing football. People are allowed to be critical where they are doing it calmly and respectfully. No one is angry, no one is saying the list management team are morons just saying there is clear and obvious room for improvement...
The criticism about draft points leading to a one dimensional discussion is totally on point.

Draft points (like picks) are a means not an end, and getting the player you want is more important than "winning" the points value in a trade.

The evidence from actual trades done is that the moment clubs truly believe they can land the player they want, then they are more than prepared to throw picks and points around like confetti.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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The criticism about draft points leading to a one dimensional discussion is totally on point.

Draft points (like picks) are a means not an end, and getting the player you want is more important than "winning" the points value in a trade.

The evidence from actual trades done is that the moment clubs truly believe they can land the player they want, then they are more than prepared to throw picks and points around like confetti.
Normally yes, but draft points were specifically relevant for us this year. Our future 1st is being downgraded because of them.

If you want to remove draft points then trading a future 2nd and 60 for 52 and 55 is even more relevant. Draft points are important to the discussion, and, for us this year, an important measure of our trading.

We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
 

blue shark

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Normally yes, but draft points were specifically relevant for us this year. Our future 1st is being downgraded because of them.

If you want to remove draft points then trading a future 2nd and 60 for 52 and 55 is even more relevant. Draft points are important to the discussion, and, for us this year, an important measure of our trading.

We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
 

Clems Knee

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If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
Not sure if you are talking about the previous regime being the Steve’s, Brad Lloyd or Lyon. The timing of each differ.

Sylvia was a free agency trade in 2013
Gumbleton cost pick 55 in 2013
Anthony was taken in the preseason draft in 2010.

As bad as all three were (for different reasons), none cost much.

As far as the two first rounders for McCarthy, it never got to the offer stage because GWS refused to enter discussions about a trade for Cam. We don’t know what offer would have been tabled.
 

Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
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Not sure if you are talking about the previous regime being the Steve’s, Brad Lloyd or Lyon. The timing of each differ.

Sylvia was a free agency trade in 2013
Gumbleton cost pick 55 in 2013
Anthony was taken in the preseason draft in 2010.

As bad as all three were (for different reasons), none cost much.

As far as the two first rounders for McCarthy, it never got to the offer stage because GWS refused to enter discussions about a trade for Cam. We don’t know what offer would have been tabled.
Yes its the received wisdomb we would have offered the two first rounders, but even two pick 18s seems to much even at the time.
Any final deal would have had something significant going back our way if it was two firsts (like a second and a third). Or, more likely, not two firsts.
 

wayToGo_

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We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.
 

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