Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

theGav56

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 11, 2004
20,661
15,906
Bali
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Fremantle
If they had taken Kelly before Allen though, this is where Mark Dufield has it wrong. WC would
Of absolutely smashed the second round this year with Robertson, Rivers, Sharp, Taylor on the board.
That's amazing. I am not a fan of the big trades, and your post confirms that for me. There are probably times when it is the right move(Richmond with Lynch), and maybe that will be the case with Kelly and WC, but I don't see it.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

wild side

Premiership Player
Mar 29, 2010
3,933
3,400
perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Still a joke though, how he could end up at the strongest club in the land shows you the system is very corrupt.
He is going to be very hard to stop next season after only 1 year at Tigerland
 

maccamk

Club Legend
Aug 12, 2016
1,176
1,752
AFL Club
Fremantle
It makes little sense the way that most assess trading and the draft. People use the most visible index which is draft pick points which is very one dimensional.

Unfortunately points don’t play games, kick goals or dispose the football effectively.

If you you really want to understand the impact of drafting and trade you need to look at the number of games played by draft pick overlaid with quality of those games played (not all games played are equal).

Until someone has done that analysis can we please stop throwing stones at our list management team.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

Snuffaluphagus

Moderator
Sep 10, 2015
4,676
12,922
AFL Club
Fremantle
It makes little sense the way that most assess trading and the draft. People use the most visible index which is draft pick points which is very one dimensional.

Unfortunately points don’t play games, kick goals or dispose the football effectively.

If you you really want to understand the impact of drafting and trade you need to look at the number of games played by draft pick overlaid with quality of those games played (not all games played are equal).

Until someone has done that analysis can we please stop throwing stones at our list management team.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
I don’t get this. We are on a discussion forum for discussing football. People are allowed to be critical where they are doing it calmly and respectfully. No one is angry, no one is saying the list management team are morons just saying there is clear and obvious room for improvement...
 

Johnny Dalmas

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2015
1,277
1,981
Albany
AFL Club
Fremantle
I don’t get this. We are on a discussion forum for discussing football. People are allowed to be critical where they are doing it calmly and respectfully. No one is angry, no one is saying the list management team are morons just saying there is clear and obvious room for improvement...
The criticism about draft points leading to a one dimensional discussion is totally on point.

Draft points (like picks) are a means not an end, and getting the player you want is more important than "winning" the points value in a trade.

The evidence from actual trades done is that the moment clubs truly believe they can land the player they want, then they are more than prepared to throw picks and points around like confetti.
 

Snuffaluphagus

Moderator
Sep 10, 2015
4,676
12,922
AFL Club
Fremantle
The criticism about draft points leading to a one dimensional discussion is totally on point.

Draft points (like picks) are a means not an end, and getting the player you want is more important than "winning" the points value in a trade.

The evidence from actual trades done is that the moment clubs truly believe they can land the player they want, then they are more than prepared to throw picks and points around like confetti.
Normally yes, but draft points were specifically relevant for us this year. Our future 1st is being downgraded because of them.

If you want to remove draft points then trading a future 2nd and 60 for 52 and 55 is even more relevant. Draft points are important to the discussion, and, for us this year, an important measure of our trading.

We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
 

blue shark

Premiership Player
Aug 15, 2009
3,092
2,187
perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Normally yes, but draft points were specifically relevant for us this year. Our future 1st is being downgraded because of them.

If you want to remove draft points then trading a future 2nd and 60 for 52 and 55 is even more relevant. Draft points are important to the discussion, and, for us this year, an important measure of our trading.

We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
 

Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2009
7,062
13,683
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
Not sure if you are talking about the previous regime being the Steve’s, Brad Lloyd or Lyon. The timing of each differ.

Sylvia was a free agency trade in 2013
Gumbleton cost pick 55 in 2013
Anthony was taken in the preseason draft in 2010.

As bad as all three were (for different reasons), none cost much.

As far as the two first rounders for McCarthy, it never got to the offer stage because GWS refused to enter discussions about a trade for Cam. We don’t know what offer would have been tabled.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
Jun 30, 2011
3,457
5,325
AFL Club
Fremantle
Not sure if you are talking about the previous regime being the Steve’s, Brad Lloyd or Lyon. The timing of each differ.

Sylvia was a free agency trade in 2013
Gumbleton cost pick 55 in 2013
Anthony was taken in the preseason draft in 2010.

As bad as all three were (for different reasons), none cost much.

As far as the two first rounders for McCarthy, it never got to the offer stage because GWS refused to enter discussions about a trade for Cam. We don’t know what offer would have been tabled.
Yes its the received wisdomb we would have offered the two first rounders, but even two pick 18s seems to much even at the time.
Any final deal would have had something significant going back our way if it was two firsts (like a second and a third). Or, more likely, not two firsts.
 

wayToGo_

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 24, 2015
9,909
29,833
AFL Club
Fremantle
We shouldnt be going into next year with a deficit
But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.
 

Clems Knee

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2009
7,062
13,683
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.
And the worse we finish, the less the downgrade will be anyway.
 

maccamk

Club Legend
Aug 12, 2016
1,176
1,752
AFL Club
Fremantle
Points and picks are just numbers. It the output you get out of those points and picks that matters. It is a very one dimensional view to say we need to improve when you cant see and don’t know what metrics the club use to measure draft success.

If you really want to get into it you also need to look at draft board positioning of the players we pick up.

Throwing stones at our recruiters is like laughing at Columbus for saying the world is round


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

Snuffaluphagus

Moderator
Sep 10, 2015
4,676
12,922
AFL Club
Fremantle
But what you think we could get for a trade and what was actually possible are likely to be very different. We had a plan in place if Henry got bid before #7 but you think they didn't do their homework on all the possible options should a bid come at #9?

It cost Brisbane a future 2nd to go up just one pick in the 2nd round. Clearly future picks (especially after the 1st round) had very little value this trade and draft period. You look at all the trades done using future picks and no club got good value out of them but people are expecting we should have? At least we got a 2nd rounder equivalent back from our future 2nd. If another club (that wasn't waiting to match bids) had multiple 3rd/4th rd picks worth points I would agree we could have reduced our deficit further - unfortunately none did. You can only work with the cards that are available to you.

We effectively got a pick #9 without spending our future 1st - we just downgraded it by 2 picks. As a comparison it cost Melbourne their future 1st (they finished 2nd bottom remember), #26 and #50 to get pick #8 originally.

Without our own future 2nd and a downgraded 1st we should also be motivated to climb the ladder. If we make finals a 2 pick downgrade from say #10 to #12 will look like nothing at all. It'll only look bad if we finish bottom 4 - so lets not.
I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
 

blue shark

Premiership Player
Aug 15, 2009
3,092
2,187
perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Points and picks are just numbers. It the output you get out of those points and picks that matters. It is a very one dimensional view to say we need to improve when you cant see and don’t know what metrics the club use to measure draft success.

If you really want to get into it you also need to look at draft board positioning of the players we pick up.

Throwing stones at our recruiters is like laughing at Columbus for saying the world is round


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Compared to Lloyd, Bond, I'd take Bell over them both. Lloyd got better but we had an entire post
on him, warts and all.
Bell is far from perfect, the Hogan trade could go either way, but he has time on his side. I'm pretty happy with
Lobb 😀
What stands out now is the character, work ethic, with the list, Plus Skills.
We have been lucky with Mitch Clark, Cloke and unlucky with Bennell, free agency appears to be the best way
to target Messiah players.
 

Superkoops

Premiership Player
May 7, 2009
3,049
4,702
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
I agree - we could have squeezed a bit more out of Adelaide.

With regards to Port trade I had a look at a few different scenario’s and I don’t think we could have done much better in terms of points. The two picks we got were the equivalent of pick 38. What we should have done is got fourth rounder for 2020. The pick 66 we gave them is irrelevant because we couldn’t use for the bid match. If we did the trade at our pick 8 and placed a bid at that time on Green our position would have less of a deficit and a pick in the fourth round.

I understand posters getting annoyed with focus on pts but that is where the draft has headed unfortunately.

Your earlier pt about our club thoroughly reviewing live trading to improve for next year is very valid.
 

wayToGo_

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 24, 2015
9,909
29,833
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think its poor negotiating not to get 45 instead of 49 from Adelaide, especially when 49 becomes 48 after a bid is matched anyway. Adelaide are just being dicks for the sake of it at that stage.

I suppose we can leave the PA trade and right it down to "we'll never know what clubs were doing"

We could have bid on Green and there would be no points deficit.

The Brisbane trade isnt comparative. There were several clubs trying to get that pick so they had to outbid others. The first 2nd round pick will always have a stupid amount of value because of the overnight trading
Fair enough - I don't personally agree with any of these points...

I think the Brisbane trade is relevant because they were the only club that could offer just a one pick downgrade.

I don't think we should have bid on Green because I don't think you should bid on a player you don't rate as high as others still available (I personally think Green was over rated by Twomey - he always overrates the GWS academy kids imo, I assume because he has a heap of info about them). Id' certainly have Young ahead of Green, and Twomey had he and Serong ahead of him for most of the year.

I think the live Port trade is about what you can expect given what was available/other trades. It was certainly better than taking a ~700 point deficit into 2020.

The 45 instead of 49 is a minute detail in the grand scheme. What would it have been worth? An extra ~60 points or so?

The day before the draft I ran a few scenarios myself and I was really worried about a bid before #7 or Carlton at #9 because the only way I could see us ending up with no deficit is if we got a pick in the 30s equivalent back for our future 2nd. That seemed highly unlikely given other trades that weren't getting anything close to that. So I was really hoping Twomey was right and the Henry bid would come later.

Given the masters of working bids and points (GWS) still got stuck with a deficit despite Green getting bid on far later than most anticipated I feel fairly comfortable that our Freo recruitment team did a reasonable job.

BTW if I had have run the scenarios before the draft and seen some real opportunities to do better than we did I'd be making the same criticisms as you are. I think you are basing it on "gut feels" rather than reality though.
 

theGav56

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 11, 2004
20,661
15,906
Bali
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Fremantle
If we can trade for Sam Taylor, Hill, from GWS in the future then the goodwill may pay off?
People complain on here about Bell, but when you think of the previous regime and the 2 first rounders
for McCarthy. The trading for Silvia, Gumbleton, Anthony, no wonder we fell off a cliff, that's besides chasing
talls, thank God they didn't take the money, we got outbid.
I don't think many complain about Bell, which I think is a quite different thing than making comments or observations about what happened during trading and drafting. The AFL has made massive changes to the player recruitment landscape over the past few years and it will take all clubs some time to adjust. Those adjustments get made by doing a review of what happened, what worked, and what could have been done better. That is what is being discussed.

Personally I think we could have done better in some areas but overall rate the work done very highly.

I also think it would be pretty immature if clubs hold any kind of grudge because of bidding on players who are available. At some stage Green gets bid on, and he would be a legitimate target for Fremantle for a competitive price at pick 8. GWS traded well ahead of that pick to ensure they got in another top talent, so they already anticipated an earlier bid than what we could have done. He certainly doesn't get to them as a Cat B.

But if you want Taylor and Hill, you draft Green and offer him in a trade deal next year.

Also worth noting that you are talking about developing goodwill with the club who refused to discuss trading McCarthy despite his clear issues, eventually forcing him to sit out for a year. I don't think that history has a long lasting effect in the scheme of things, and we did indeed trade with them the following year.

Its business.
 
Last edited:

Superkoops

Premiership Player
May 7, 2009
3,049
4,702
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
For those counting the points.

Has anyone accounted for the change to the Port picks if we had forced GWS at pick 8.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Yep unchanged - GWS had pick 40

Therefore 40 moves forward and the rest of the order between 40 to 58 remains unchanged. Then they also had 59/60 so picks after 60 move forward two spots including our own 66 to 64 which instead of just giving away we could have swapped for a fourth rounder knowing that after a bid on Henry (which I expected in the first 14 selections) to push that up a further 3 spots to 61.
 

Paracleet

Emotion is not going to get the job done..
Jun 30, 2011
3,457
5,325
AFL Club
Fremantle
For those counting the points.

Has anyone accounted for the change to the Port picks if we had forced GWS at pick 8.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
It's earlier in the thread.

(They stay the same. The only time a later pick will move up or down in those circumstances is if there are no picks to be consumed between it and the pick the bid is at, or more than one. If there is one, as there was in this case, it's + 1 - 1 = 0 movement)
 

Top Bottom