Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

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tants

Norm Smith Medallist
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What if there is ample evidence to suggest a likely reason, such as never in the history of the AFL having happened before?

That wouldnt be applicable to this situation though correct? The expansion clubs had unprecedented cap limits to bring players in. Also, aside from McGovern, which best 22 players have they lost to a non-home state after expansion.

edit: looking through wikipedia, they also lost Lyons and Vince, and while I dont know all the info around it, that makes 3 in 5 years...


edit2 for Joao : Expanding on my point, you can quite easily be rational by following evidence and coming to a rational conclusion. You dont have to have all the facts to be rational/logical
Also Jake Lever, Sam Kerridge and more. They've lost a few.
 

Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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What if there is ample evidence to suggest a likely reason, such as never in the history of the AFL having happened before?
It is still a fallacy. Can you name all the reasons why players have and haven't changed clubs?

Expanding on my point, you can quite easily be rational by following evidence and coming to a rational conclusion. You dont have to have all the facts to be rational/logical
YES! Exactly my point. You follow the evidence. The evidence in this situation is the specific reasons why Ed and Connor might go - not the history of other players.

In the absence of facts critical to your evaluation, the correct answer is not to guess, or assume it is the same as other players, but to say "I don't know". In the evaluation of:

Q: Is it a big deal if Ed or Connor leave?

The critical evidence is the reason they left.
 

Tayl0r

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Can a club like gold coast simultaneously be a bad club that loses it's players not back to their home state and a good club that attracts players not from their state?
 

Superkoops

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Blakely ain’t going to GCS. It is time to move him permanently into the mid. If I remember Crozier was lost due to our reluctance to play him off HBF. It does have a familiar theme regarding Blakely but won’t be GCS.

If Ed goes it will be to Vic. No chance anywhere else. It doesn’t necessarily need to be Collingwood but he is very very tight with his brother. Can’t believe this rubbish rumour is even being talked about.

SHill to GCS now that is a real possibility based on the amount of money genuinely being put forward for him.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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It is still a fallacy. Can you name all the reasons why players have and haven't changed clubs?


YES! Exactly my point. You follow the evidence. The evidence in this situation is the specific reasons why Ed and Connor might go - not the history of other players.

In the absence of facts critical to your evaluation, the correct answer is not to guess, or assume it is the same as other players, but to say "I don't know". In the evaluation of:

Q: Is it a big deal if Ed or Connor leave?

The critical evidence is the reason they left.
We are going to go round in circles here since we have a fundamentally different view on the matter. You appear to be looking at every case individually (entirely logic based and avoiding any form of extrapolation) where as I am applying facts from historical evidence to formorulate a conclusion on the state of matters within the club.

Given we'd never know the full story, some extrapolation would be needed and historical evidence suggests that losing 6 best 22 players in the space of three years does not happen to a strong club environment. Given no club would have ever lost 6 best 22 players in the space of three years to non-home states, regardless of the motives each player had, this would be horrific player retention, which is a funamental aspect of player management. It doesnt matter the motives, the club is responsible for retaining best 22 players. That result would be a fundamental failure on that behalf, just like it was for Brisbane and the go-home 5, but i would argue worse. This would require a complete review and clean-out of the department
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Blakely ain’t going to GCS. It is time to move him permanently into the mid. If I remember Crozier was lost due to our reluctance to play him off HBF. It does have a familiar theme regarding Blakely but won’t be GCS.

If Ed goes it will be to Vic. No chance anywhere else. It doesn’t necessarily need to be Collingwood but he is very very tight with his brother. Can’t believe this rubbish rumour is even being talked about.

SHill to GCS now that is a real possibility based on the amount of money genuinely being put forward for him.
I agree, we have moved to a theoretical argument/discussion on logic and list management
 

Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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We are going to go round in circles here since we have a fundamentally different view on the matter. You appear to be looking at every case individually (entirely logic based and avoiding any form of extrapolation) where as I am applying facts from historical evidence to formorulate a conclusion on the state of matters within the club.

Given we'd never know the full story, some extrapolation would be needed and historical evidence suggests that losing 6 best 22 players in the space of three years does not happen to a strong club environment. Given no club would have ever lost 6 best 22 players in the space of three years to non-home states, regardless of the motives each player had, this would be horrific player retention, which is a funamental aspect of player management. It doesnt matter the motives, the club is responsible for retaining best 22 players. That result would be a fundamental failure on that behalf, just like it was for Brisbane and the go-home 5, but i would argue worse. This would require a complete review and clean-out of the department
This is not about views or opinions (yours or mine). Your reasoning is fallacious - end of story (again, not my opinion, it is a fact).

That doesn't necessarily mean you are wrong. You can have a sound and valid logical argument that is incorrect. Likewise, you can have a fallacious argument that is correct. Make no mistake though, you are committing logical fallacies.

If you genuinely are interested in logic and consider yourself a logical person I sincerely recommend looking up logical reasoning, syllogisms and common fallacies. You'd probably be amazed at how often your and others' arguments are fallacious (I was heavily guilty of it, and probably still am). You'll never look at BF the same again.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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This is not about views or opinions (yours or mine). Your reasoning is fallacious - end of story (again, not my opinion, it is a fact).

That doesn't necessarily mean you are wrong. You can have a sound and valid logical argument that is incorrect. Likewise, you can have a fallacious argument that is correct. Make no mistake though, you are committing logical fallacies.

If you genuinely are interested in logic and consider yourself a logical person I sincerely recommend looking up logical reasoning, syllogisms and common fallacies. You'd probably be amazed at how often your and others' arguments are fallacious (I was heavily guilty of it, and probably still am). You'll never look at BF the same again.
I am genuinely interested here, if you tell me the following is not logical reasoning I will go and read everything there is about fallacies over the next few weeks and attempt more to understand your stance

Facts
1) In the situation devised, the club would have lost 6 best 22 players in the space of 3 years, none of which went to their home state
2) That would not have happened before in the AFL
3) No club has won a flag losing at least two best 22 players on average every year.

Logical conclusion: Points 1 and 2 indicate a fundamental failure with regards to player retention. The club will not be able to be successful with its current player retention
 

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Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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I am genuinely interested here, if you tell me the following is not logical reasoning I will go and read everything there is about fallacies over the next few weeks and attempt more to understand your stance

Facts
1) In the situation devised, the club would have lost 6 best 22 players in the space of 3 years, none of which went to their home state
2) That would not have happened before in the AFL
3) No club has won a flag losing at least two best 22 players on average every year.

Logical conclusion: Points 1 and 2 indicate a fundamental failure with regards to player retention. The club will not be able to be successful with its current player retention
Struggling to remember exactly what this is called but essentially, just because X has happened before does not mean X will happen again.

Can't think of a good analogy, but I have a bad one that might illustrate the fallacy. If I flip a coin ten times and get heads all 10 times, what does that tell you about the 11th flip?
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Struggling to remember exactly what this is called but essentially, just because X has happened before does not mean X will happen again.

Can't think of a good analogy, but I have a bad one that might illustrate the fallacy. If I flip a coin ten times and get heads all 10 times, what does that tell you about the 11th flip?
Thats besides the point though no?

It doesnt necessarily mean it will happen again, but the club has already failed in its player retention, and, given a situation has occurred that has never happened before it simply wouldnt be good enough, regardless of the motivation behind the players leaving
 

Tayl0r

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We've lost a group of best twenty two players.. but we have also brought some in.

I don't think we have Lobb or Hogan without it. Hamling is vital, Wilson is important, as is Conca, Brad Hill is handy, McCarthy could be anything.

A lot of footy movement is money related.
 

Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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Thats besides the point though no?

It doesnt necessarily mean it will happen again, but the club has already failed in its player retention, and, given a situation has occurred that has never happened before it simply wouldnt be good enough, regardless of the motivation behind the players leaving
Probably a little because I can't think of something directly analogous. The key concept is there though.

Lets be clear about what the contention is.

- My position is that you can't judge (the club in a negative way) the hypothetical situation that Ed and Connor leave for GC unless you know the reason/s why.

- I believe yours to be that you can judge completely without the key evidence (their reason/s) because there is no previous instance of certain amount of players leaving a club.

My issue with that is as follows:
- Just because you can't think of an acceptable reason for them leaving doesn't mean one doesn't exist. It is a fallacy to assume as much.
- Assuming that because an outcome happened under a given set of circumstances before does not necessarily mean that under the same circumstances it will happen again - to be clear, I am not apply this forward (to other players leaving past this year). It is a reply to your list of facts in your previous post where you use past events to predict what happens in the future. It is also a fallacy as illustrated by the coin example.
 

Tayl0r

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Gold Coast = very good money on a long term deal, a club that the locals don't know so you can live your life outside without being stopped in the street and given an earful of opinion, good weather.
 

Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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Gold Coast = very good money on a long term deal, a club that the locals don't know so you can live your life outside without being stopped in the street and given an earful of opinion, good weather.
Bolded depends on how much you like humidity in summer and the fact that it doesn't really get cold in winter.

Connor as a surfer might like it though.
 

Freoforever86

Norm Smith Medallist
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Gold Coast = very good money on a long term deal, a club that the locals don't know so you can live your life outside without being stopped in the street and given an earful of opinion, good weather.
Can’t imagine we’re offering him peanuts and Blakely wouldn’t be overly noticeable here.

Him going to GC sounds like pure rubbish
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Probably a little because I can't think of something directly analogous. The key concept is there though.

Lets be clear about what the contention is.

- My position is that you can't judge (the club in a negative way) the hypothetical situation that Ed and Connor leave for GC unless you know the reason/s why.

- I believe yours to be that you can judge completely without the key evidence (their reason/s) because there is no previous instance of certain amount of players leaving a club.

My issue with that is as follows:
- Just because you can't think of an acceptable reason for them leaving doesn't mean one doesn't exist. It is a fallacy to assume as much.
- Assuming that because an outcome happened under a given set of circumstances before does not necessarily mean that under the same circumstances it will happen again - to be clear, I am not apply this forward (to other players leaving past this year). It is a reply to your list of facts in your previous post where you use past events to predict what happens in the future. It is also a fallacy as illustrated by the coin example.
I mainly agree with your points, though I think the first one is being a little impractical and too theoretical when applied to the actual scenario. Is there some scenario that absolves the club of most/all responsibility for the exodus? Sure, but I think this is monumentally low given historical evidence. To the letter of logic though, you would be correct.

The second point I dont believe to be relevant as thats not how I was trying to use that evidence. The fact it hadnt happened before was to point out that it is a clear indicator that it would be a monumental failure in the clubs ability to retain players, given, no club had failed that poorly in the history of the AFL. The failure is so great that the decreases the likelihood there is an acceptable explanation
 

Joao

Norm Smith Medallist
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I mainly agree with your points, though I think the first one is being a little impractical and too theoretical when applied to the actual scenario. Is there some scenario that absolves the club of most/all responsibility for the exodus? Sure, but I think this is monumentally low given historical evidence. To the letter of logic though, you would be correct.

The second point I dont believe to be relevant as thats not how I was trying to use that evidence. The fact it hadnt happened before was to point out that it is a clear indicator that it would be a monumental failure in the clubs ability to retain players, given, no club had failed that poorly in the history of the AFL. The failure is so great that the decreases the likelihood there is an acceptable explanation
I think the sticking point here is the difference between being correct and having a logically sound and valid argument. You may well be right (I would at least be a little suspicious if those two left) but you argument can still be irrational.

To your second point, its only a monumental failure if you know the reasons why and make the judgement. You are still assuming no credible reason exists to make this argument - because if it does, there is no way you can make that rational assertion without knowing the reason.
 
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