It is still a fallacy. Can you name all the reasons why players have and haven't changed clubs?What if there is ample evidence to suggest a likely reason, such as never in the history of the AFL having happened before?
YES! Exactly my point. You follow the evidence. The evidence in this situation is the specific reasons why Ed and Connor might go - not the history of other players.Expanding on my point, you can quite easily be rational by following evidence and coming to a rational conclusion. You dont have to have all the facts to be rational/logical
In the absence of facts critical to your evaluation, the correct answer is not to guess, or assume it is the same as other players, but to say "I don't know". In the evaluation of:
Q: Is it a big deal if Ed or Connor leave?
The critical evidence is the reason they left.