2019 Membership

Canoogs

Club Legend
Apr 29, 2012
1,563
1,991
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Port Adelaide
I missed the 1870 event this week because I had something come up at the last minute, although my brother was there. How did other 1870ers find it? Interesting comments from Matthew Richardson. Definitely still a sense of apathy (including me), but I think we're open to be re-engaged if the product on field is appealing. It's a perfect storm for this Saturday to either throw us into the abyss or start winning us back.
 

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RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,445
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I missed the 1870 event this week because I had something come up at the last minute, although my brother was there. How did other 1870ers find it? Interesting comments from Matthew Richardson. Definitely still a sense of apathy (including me), but I think we're open to be re-engaged if the product on field is appealing. It's a perfect storm for this Saturday to either throw us into the abyss or start winning us back.
Better venue - Lindsay Head Terrace back of level 5 Riverbank stand - than the previous 2 years in the small Ridings Bar in 2017 and Bodyline Bar last year. Hope its there again next year as being outdoors in March has a good vibe.

Players were good, Baz standard questions to draw out info. Brodie Grundy was a star and lasted to the end of the night, when most of the boys left at half way point with Lycett and one other hanging around 15 more minutes.. Food not as plentiful as previous year, but that might have been me as I didnt eat lunch.

Yeah Richo was a bit more forth coming than previous years. Good to catch up with a few bigfootyites and a few others I know. Must have been around 150 of the 300 members turn up.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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I'd love to see the churn rate on long term members if the captaincy was announced earlier.
yeah might have been a couple of thousand more. Those who sign up before Christmas basically are reserved seat members who dont want to lose their seat, and other rusted on SA based, interstaters and overseas based fans and I doubt an announcement would have happened before the camp finished, so I wouldn't have expected any drop offs before Christmas.
 

Papa G

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 13, 2006
21,248
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Saw an acquaintance at the under 23 game at Thebby. Basically said he wasn't going to sign up until the last minute, "it's my little form of protest"..... reckon there will a few like that. If we get some good wins on the board early.....they'll come.
 

Forzaport

Moderator
May 27, 2004
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From recollection GMH Elizabeth shut down in October 2017.
I suspect PAFC has quite a few affected northerners who might have directed some of their 2017 redundancy payout in a splash for membership - maybe one last time even.
Would be interesting to see geographically where membership losses are occurring.
From recollection, when Mitsubishi went down (a long time ago), over half its workforce did not work again.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data are basically rubbish as well, when it comes to unemployment and underemployment.Employment criteria and data collection methodologies are junk, and underestimate the work situation.
I much prefer Roy Morgan unemployment+under employment data, which sits just under 20%. It's big, and coupled with insecure work, it is not adding to confidence in spending money on leisure

While home resale values have not slipped significantly here, the issues in Sydney and Melbourne are firing warning shots over the bow.

It doesn't make for a favourable membership outcome, all things considered.
The economy is much ****ter than we’re being led to believe. It’s going to be a tough couple of years (or longer) for many. Wouldn’t surprise me if memberships really slip next year. This year I’m mainly putting it down to our 2018 results but next year could be out of our control.
 

Papa G

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Apr 13, 2006
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The economy is much ****ter than we’re being led to believe. It’s going to be a tough couple of years (or longer) for many. Wouldn’t surprise me if memberships really slip next year. This year I’m mainly putting it down to our 2018 results but next year could be out of our control.
Tend to agree on the economy. Think we will soon be having the first recession anyone under 30 has ever seen. If Labor is does half the **** it's proposing to do when in power it could be a long one.
 

Canoogs

Club Legend
Apr 29, 2012
1,563
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Tend to agree on the economy. Think we will soon be having the first recession anyone under 30 has ever seen. If Labor is does half the **** it's proposing to do when in power it could be a long one.
I don't think our economy is as weak as people think. There are certainly a number of risks, but falling property prices in Sydney and Melbourne could actually be good for our GDP as it will reduce crowding out for other more productive forms of investment. However, I am concerned by low wage growth driving lower consumption.

In terms of avoiding a recession, immigration will continue to make a long recession very unlikely. But then, two successive negative quarters of GDP growth doesn't really affect most people's living standards anyway...
 

Andre

Premium Platinum
Sep 3, 2002
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I don't think our economy is as weak as people think. There are certainly a number of risks, but falling property prices in Sydney and Melbourne could actually be good for our GDP as it will reduce crowding out for other more productive forms of investment. However, I am concerned by low wage growth driving lower consumption.

In terms of avoiding a recession, immigration will continue to make a long recession very unlikely. But then, two successive negative quarters of GDP growth doesn't really affect most people's living standards anyway...
Property prices keeps the economy up by having money from increased values (redraws) to tap. And construction is a big sector. This is already having some affect and will have more. At present the economy hasn't passed the tipping point, so many are able to hold onto their properties rather than sell low. If it tips and there's a bunch of distressed sellers, then prices will really drop.

The economy already has had a population independent recession the last couple of quarters (taking the growth due just to increased numbers of people out). To avoid recession it needs policies to encourage businesses, but those have struggled to get implemented in the current parliament and it's 'style over substance' to make the Left base happy after the upcoming trouncing the Libs are getting. Unless the Government goes heavily into further debt we aren't avoiding a recession. Though given all parties are so afraid of recessions (which are bad, but a short sharp recession is not as bad as overloading debt to avoid one, like with Rudd), we probably are about to see debt go up significantly.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
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I don't think our economy is as weak as people think. There are certainly a number of risks, but falling property prices in Sydney and Melbourne could actually be good for our GDP as it will reduce crowding out for other more productive forms of investment. However, I am concerned by low wage growth driving lower consumption.

In terms of avoiding a recession, immigration will continue to make a long recession very unlikely. But then, two successive negative quarters of GDP growth doesn't really affect most people's living standards anyway...
Last recession in 1990 -1991 period, people who lost jobs never worked full time again and that was only 2 quarters, then 1 quarter of small growth and then 2 more quarters of negative growth. All up GDP fell 1.7% over those 5 quarters. Unemployment went from 6% to 11% by 1992. Unemployment is a laggard stat.

When the GFC hit in 2008, there were a few senior Treasury officials from 1990-1991 who remembered that including Treasury head Ken Henry, and that's why they advised to splash the cash and if their was to be waste post GFC, it would via a budget deficit and not double digit unemployment like most of the rest of the world.
In the 1990-91 recession manufacturing in SA and Victoria was gutted. Some of those jobs lost then, went for ever. Technology is driving the end of service jobs this time.
 

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TeeKray

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Mar 1, 2014
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Talking national GDP based recessions are ******** anyway when you are talking about people living and working in Adelaide or any other metro or regional location that isn't Sydney or Melbourne. WA for instance has been in recession for years, nobody here gives a **** that everything is still rosy in Sydney. SA I assume is very similar.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Nov 16, 2004
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Talking national GDP based recessions are ******** anyway when you are talking about people living and working in Adelaide or any other metro or regional location that isn't Sydney or Melbourne. WA for instance has been in recession for years, nobody here gives a **** that everything is still rosy in Sydney. SA I assume is very similar.
I agree, median housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall another $100k to $150k and it doesnt have a big impact on the real economy until you get there. But other parts of the economy are stagnate. Personal debt levels are high so if something drove up interest rates 4-5% then a big recession happens. Can't see it happening soon but nobody say oil prices rise 200% in October 1973 and then another 200% 6 months later and start years of stagflation and not being able to get inflation and interest rates low like the last 10-15 years.

So how do clubs react to a recession?? Membership prices may have to drop but 3-5 game packages might be heavily marketed as a way to hold onto members.
 

ab56452001

Club Legend
Aug 23, 2009
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Losing the longer term supporters is concerning but not surprising. Higher expectations of what the Club should stand for and less tolerance for failure. We get what we deserve.
Yep , that's why our Family has decided not to sign up this year , add to that the DGV fiasco and the general ripoff at AO . Its really a hard thing to do after such a long time as members . really the way we ended up last year and KH's role in it just really made the blood boil thinking about that 3 year extension , got to the point now where as I previously supported Kochie ,now I want who ever signed off on it to piss of aswell , Koch, KT or both.
 

Lockhart Road

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Mar 26, 2013
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Yep , that's why our Family has decided not to sign up this year , add to that the DGV fiasco and the general ripoff at AO . Its really a hard thing to do after such a long time as members . really the way we ended up last year and KH's role in it just really made the blood boil thinking about that 3 year extension , got to the point now where as I previously supported Kochie ,now I want who ever signed off on it to piss of aswell , Koch, KT or both.
Both ... with Cardone standing half a pace behind holding Koch’s coat and pate polishing apparatus, metaphorically.
 

Canoogs

Club Legend
Apr 29, 2012
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I agree, median housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall another $100k to $150k and it doesnt have a big impact on the real economy until you get there. But other parts of the economy are stagnate. Personal debt levels are high so if something drove up interest rates 4-5% then a big recession happens. Can't see it happening soon but nobody say oil prices rise 200% in October 1973 and then another 200% 6 months later and start years of stagflation and not being able to get inflation and interest rates low like the last 10-15 years.

So how do clubs react to a recession?? Membership prices may have to drop but 3-5 game packages might be heavily marketed as a way to hold onto members.
I love that we've turned the 2019 Membership thread into a talk about recessions.
Last recession in 1990 -1991 period, people who lost jobs never worked full time again and that was only 2 quarters, then 1 quarter of small growth and then 2 more quarters of negative growth. All up GDP fell 1.7% over those 5 quarters. Unemployment went from 6% to 11% by 1992. Unemployment is a laggard stat.

When the GFC hit in 2008, there were a few senior Treasury officials from 1990-1991 who remembered that including Treasury head Ken Henry, and that's why they advised to splash the cash and if their was to be waste post GFC, it would via a budget deficit and not double digit unemployment like most of the rest of the world.
In the 1990-91 recession manufacturing in SA and Victoria was gutted. Some of those jobs lost then, went for ever. Technology is driving the end of service jobs this time.
I think that the biggest difference now vs 1990-91 is monetary policy which keeps our lows higher, and ours highs lower. There's a number of big risks (e.g. our cash rate being so low and cost of credit overseas increasing for lendors while debt levels are high, foreign trade risks, and our unemployment rate being sluggish to respond to low inflation numbers as big ones for mine), but I don't think we're staring at the edge of the abyss.

I think SA and WA are good examples of what would happen in a recession, with SA experiencing a mild contraction and WA experiencing a big one over the last few years. Our membership numbers stayed relatively stable despite this, and you'd imagine that we'd be likely to keep annual membership cost increases minimal with not much pressure on inflation. Freo and West Coast don't appear to have struggled too much during the hit in WA.
 

Canoogs

Club Legend
Apr 29, 2012
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Property prices keeps the economy up by having money from increased values (redraws) to tap. And construction is a big sector. This is already having some affect and will have more. At present the economy hasn't passed the tipping point, so many are able to hold onto their properties rather than sell low. If it tips and there's a bunch of distressed sellers, then prices will really drop.

The economy already has had a population independent recession the last couple of quarters (taking the growth due just to increased numbers of people out). To avoid recession it needs policies to encourage businesses, but those have struggled to get implemented in the current parliament and it's 'style over substance' to make the Left base happy after the upcoming trouncing the Libs are getting. Unless the Government goes heavily into further debt we aren't avoiding a recession. Though given all parties are so afraid of recessions (which are bad, but a short sharp recession is not as bad as overloading debt to avoid one, like with Rudd), we probably are about to see debt go up significantly.
There's not a whole lot of productive investment based on redrawing from homes. Building a home creates jobs for a few months but then locks up capital in a non-productive form. If we have less credit tied up in housing it can reduce cost of capital for businesses so more jobs can be created.

It's also not public debt that scares me at all. Our public debt to GDP ratio is okay but private debt is scary. Neither party are particularly different when it comes to debt and we'll continue to be at the mercy of export prices to determine whether we're running surpluses or deficits. I'm also concerned that the RBA has very little downwards room to stimulate our economy. If we do hit a recession fiscal policy is going to need to be extremely well executed.
 

Lawnchair Larry

All Australian
Apr 1, 2015
921
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To simplify have only included this year and 2018 data.
What happened before Xmas has persisted up to the present time.
Before Xmas membership take-up ultimately reflects "diehards" in my opinion, so PAFC is right in suggesting that rusted on supporters have been the major deviation in membership - for whatever reason that is (economics, unemployment, franking credits etc....).
So far the 2019 curve is just a translation DOWN of the 2018 curve, to a lower membership, post Xmas.
PAFC Membership 210319.jpg
 

drcollossimo

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Jun 22, 2008
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To simplify have only included this year and 2018 data.
What happened before Xmas has persisted up to the present time.
Before Xmas membership take-up ultimately reflects "diehards" in my opinion, so PAFC is right in suggesting that rusted on supporters have been the major deviation in membership - for whatever reason that is (economics, unemployment, franking credits etc....).
So far the 2019 curve is just a translation DOWN of the 2018 curve, to a lower membership, post Xmas.
View attachment 638823
Nah doubling down on Kern for no reason, selling the farm for what might be magic beans (it also might not) and spitting in the face of 150 years of tradition because ït gives us the best chance to win for reasons I havent explained at all in anyway whatsoever"are more likely..

I'm a rusted on fan who went through 2010-2012 etc etc and I really only renewed because of habit truly I'm not looking forward to this season at all
 

Boxx

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Mar 2, 2014
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Yep , that's why our Family has decided not to sign up this year , add to that the DGV fiasco and the general ripoff at AO . Its really a hard thing to do after such a long time as members . really the way we ended up last year and KH's role in it just really made the blood boil thinking about that 3 year extension , got to the point now where as I previously supported Kochie ,now I want who ever signed off on it to piss of aswell , Koch, KT or both.
I’m sure once we start to show signs of success - you will jump back on the bandwagon...
 

Interstater

#BringBackTheBars
Jun 7, 2015
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Our membership number just now: 54321

Looking forward to seeing what it is next Saturday.
 

VineValerian

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Mar 10, 2014
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Win by ten goals v Carlton and you will see a decent spike.
 
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