2019 Membership

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Steve Dore

International Trade Facilitator
Aug 30, 2004
27,518
37,261
a three hour tour.
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Minnesota Vikings, Canadiens, Ports
Flogging discounted tickets to a game that should draw, and has previously drawn, a big crowd smells of desperation. The club needs to realise that things will only be worse next season if we still have Hinkley serving up the same garbage week in week out.
 

Andre

Premium Platinum
Sep 3, 2002
23,436
25,620
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Flogging discounted tickets to a game that should draw, and has previously drawn, a big crowd smells of desperation. The club needs to realise that things will only be worse next season if we still have Hinkley serving up the same garbage week in week out.
The club knows, but lacks the spine to fix it. KT has lost the will to fight and Koch won't admit being wrong about anything and push for Ken to go. They'll hang around for 2020, then retire having overseen our 150th turn into a clusterfu** of poor crowds, lack of sponsors, s**t performances, further player discontentment at Hinkley (especially our young players and KPP's we most want to keep), assistants looking elsewhere (except Voss and Bassett) and fans pi**ed at the club for trying to celebrate everything except the thing wanted most (the Prison Bars). If you were an opposition fan who hated Port wishing ill on us, you wouldn't get through all of the above, as you'd have stopped half way through the list thinking that's enough to ruin any club for a decade.
 

Lawnchair Larry

All Australian
Apr 1, 2015
994
1,145
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Weve lost members in 2 tranches:
~2000 members pre Xmas
~1000 members post Xmas

I presume the 2000 pre Xmas are our "tried and truers" who are maybe disillusioned or who perhaps have fallen on harsh employment times.
The Post Xmas 1000 are presumably those who: dont have readily disposable income/ recovering from Xmas bills/ reconsidering their disillusionment/ strong discretionary spenders making consideration of how worthwhile a membership is.

Pretty hard to analyse pre Xmas data - the club must be swamped. The day to day uptake may not be real, and possibly determined by how fast they can accumulate and present data. There is also insufficient data pre Xmas, particularly for 2019.

Post Xmas is a little easier with diminished uptake rates. Had a quick look at post Xmas data by obliterating pre Xmas memberships and zeroing out the days after 27 October previous to the 2018 and 2019 membership years - ie returning all data post Xmas to (0,0). The intention has been to look at the membership curve shapes for both years, post Xmas. I have actually fitted each year post Xmas to a lineshape to make the data easier to interpret (called the Hill lineshape) Data fits these lines really well. I then subtracted the 2018 from the 2019 data to make a difference curve.
It clearly shows the loss of ca 1000 members post Xmas.
More interestingly it shows that the drop away begins on 23 March 2019 (+ or - 2 days)- the absolute start of the season:

Post Xmas Membership 2018 vs 2019.jpg

Here is the message to the club:
#Hammer the phones 2 weeks before Xmas
#Hammer the phones 2 weeks before the start of the season
if you need to retrieve membership.
Below is all the accumulated data:
membership uptake 2019 240619.jpg
 

Lockhart Road

Cultural Attache
Mar 26, 2013
4,337
18,797
Happy Valley Bar & Grill, Hong Kong
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Port Adelaide Magpies
Weve lost members in 2 tranches:
~2000 members pre Xmas
~1000 members post Xmas

I presume the 2000 pre Xmas are our "tried and truers" who are maybe disillusioned or who perhaps have fallen on harsh employment times.
The Post Xmas 1000 are presumably those who: dont have readily disposable income/ recovering from Xmas bills/ reconsidering their disillusionment/ strong discretionary spenders making consideration of how worthwhile a membership is.

Pretty hard to analyse pre Xmas data - the club must be swamped. The day to day uptake may not be real, and possibly determined by how fast they can accumulate and present data. There is also insufficient data pre Xmas, particularly for 2019.

Post Xmas is a little easier with diminished uptake rates. Had a quick look at post Xmas data by obliterating pre Xmas memberships and zeroing out the days after 27 October previous to the 2018 and 2019 membership years - ie returning all data post Xmas to (0,0). The intention has been to look at the membership curve shapes for both years, post Xmas. I have actually fitted each year post Xmas to a lineshape to make the data easier to interpret (called the Hill lineshape) Data fits these lines really well. I then subtracted the 2018 from the 2019 data to make a difference curve.
It clearly shows the loss of ca 1000 members post Xmas.
More interestingly it shows that the drop away begins on 23 March 2019 (+ or - 2 days)- the absolute start of the season:

View attachment 697810
Here is the message to the club:
#Hammer the phones 2 weeks before Xmas
#Hammer the phones 2 weeks before the start of the season
if you need to retrieve membership.
Below is all the accumulated data:
View attachment 697818
Thank you for this valuable data. The record is all the more comprehensive as a result.

I wanted to point out that the total unaudited membership position is, in fact, worse than losing 3,000 pre-existing Club members.

The targeted increase in membership should not be overlooked. We are thus 6,000 down.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
55,727
73,789
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Thank you for this valuable data. The record is all the more comprehensive as a result.

I wanted to point out that the total unaudited membership position is, in fact, worse than losing 3,000 pre-existing Club members.

The targeted increase in membership should not be overlooked. We are thus 6,000 down.
The Target was 65,000 including all categories. Richo in early March at the Club 1870 event, said almost 3,000 long term members who went thru 2011-12 years and signed up for the early years at AO hadn't resigned.

I wonder how many Auskickers were expected to be signed up to get to 65,000.


697894


Rooch last year wrote

......
The SA market is further complicated with - for the fifth year - the 8000 stadium members at Adelaide Oval being allocated on a 72-28 split favouring the Crows.

Adelaide is listed with 64,739 members - up on last year’s figure of 56,865 that was a record with a different counting system. The Crows’ figure this season includes 6500 registered Auskickers - and 72 per cent of the Adelaide Oval stadium membership pool (5748).

Port Adelaide is listed with 54,386 members - also up on last year when the Power audit figure was 52,129. It also is a record, surpassing the 54,057 in 2015. The Power’s count this season includes 2500 Auskickers - and 28 per cent of the Oval membership base (2252).

Port Adelaide general manager Matthew Richardson told The Advertiser the Power figures include a 93 per cent retention of 11-game members - second only to Richmond. “We put enormous value on membership of our club - and know our members are loyal and committed,’ he said.

Removing Auskickers and the Oval memberships, the Crows have 52,491 members; Port Adelaide has 49,634.
.......
 

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Lockhart Road

Cultural Attache
Mar 26, 2013
4,337
18,797
Happy Valley Bar & Grill, Hong Kong
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Port Adelaide Magpies
The Target was 65,000 including all categories. Richo in early March at the Club 1870 event, said almost 3,000 long term members who went thru 2011-12 years and signed up for the early years at AO hadn't resigned.

I wonder how many Auskickers were expected to be signed up to get to 65,000.


View attachment 697894

Rooch last year wrote

......
The SA market is further complicated with - for the fifth year - the 8000 stadium members at Adelaide Oval being allocated on a 72-28 split favouring the Crows.

Adelaide is listed with 64,739 members - up on last year’s figure of 56,865 that was a record with a different counting system. The Crows’ figure this season includes 6500 registered Auskickers - and 72 per cent of the Adelaide Oval stadium membership pool (5748).

Port Adelaide is listed with 54,386 members - also up on last year when the Power audit figure was 52,129. It also is a record, surpassing the 54,057 in 2015. The Power’s count this season includes 2500 Auskickers - and 28 per cent of the Oval membership base (2252).

Port Adelaide general manager Matthew Richardson told The Advertiser the Power figures include a 93 per cent retention of 11-game members - second only to Richmond. “We put enormous value on membership of our club - and know our members are loyal and committed,’ he said.

Removing Auskickers and the Oval memberships, the Crows have 52,491 members; Port Adelaide has 49,634.
.......
My aim is to emphasise the double shortfall based on a 2019 target of 65k members of whatever denomination.

This double shortfall is further emphasised, in my cut-throat opinion, by the truth of a whiz kid from Sydney having been employed to find supersonic formulae to, by this time, ramp up the membership to 100k.
 

afl2004

Premiership Player
Feb 7, 2014
3,885
6,215
reynella
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Chelsea FC , Boston Red Sox/celtics
My aim is to emphasise the double shortfall based on a 2019 target of 65k members of whatever denomination.

This double shortfall is further emphasised, in my cut-throat opinion, by the truth of a whiz kid from Sydney having been employed to find supersonic formulae to, by this time, ramp up the membership to 100k.
He's done an average job that so called "whiz kid"
 

agmsy

Senior List
Sep 28, 2014
258
727
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
The SA market is further complicated with - for the fifth year - the 8000 stadium members at Adelaide Oval being allocated on a 72-28 split favouring the Crows.
People act as though Leigh Whicker carried two stone tablets inscribed with "72" and "28" down from Mount Lofty after communicating with Max Basheer in an ayahuasca-induced fever dream.

Given how easy it would be to conduct a census of stadium members at the time of registration/renewal, or to base the split on audited ticket scans, the reasons for holding to 72-28 are as obvious and backwards as everything else in SA footy administration.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
55,727
73,789
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Seriously. Have they actually audited that?
The AFL accept it so who knows how adequate any audit was. You would like to think the club has actually looked thru the process and has approved it rather than just accepted it.

If you look at the time stamp of Rooch's article linked above, it is 2.51pm on 2/8/2018 and the one below the club put out was at 1.09pm 2/8/2019. I'd put good money on Rooch just regurgitating Port's annual statement on the membership breakdown, rather than get any info from the SMA.

 

OneGreatClub

Hall of Famer
Nov 6, 2014
34,914
36,740
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
The AFL accept it so who knows how adequate any audit was. You would like to think the club has actually looked thru the process and has approved it rather than just accepted it.

If you look at the time stamp of Rooch's article linked above, it is 2.51pm on 2/8/2018 and the one below the club put out was at 1.09pm 2/8/2019. I'd put good money on Rooch just regurgitating Port's annual statement on the membership breakdown, rather than get any info from the SMA.

What is your profession REH?
Your research is meticulous.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
55,727
73,789
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
What is your profession REH?
Your research is meticulous.
Blame Paul Keating and the big tax changes announced in September 1985 after the July Tax Summit, and the legislation hit parliament in February 1986 a few weeks after I started my first professional job in accounting after Uni. Had to sit in with managers and partners with 20 and 30 years experience and was expected to keep up, read draft bills and final legislation before the training sessions, and contribute in them. No sitting on the side lines and not contributing. Always got, what do you think REH? I don't know, didn't cut the mustard. Many of the sections of the different acts you had to read 10-15 other sections with definitions to correctly understand that section. It was great rigorous training. I don't read tax law these days, but the good training stays with you for life.
 

OneGreatClub

Hall of Famer
Nov 6, 2014
34,914
36,740
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Blame Paul Keating and the big tax changes announced in September 1985 after the July Tax Summit, and the legislation hit parliament in February 1986 a few weeks after I started my first professional job in accounting after Uni. Had to sit in with managers and partners with 20 and 30 years experience and was expected to keep up, read draft bills and final legislation before the training sessions, and contribute in them. No sitting on the side lines and not contributing. Always got what do you think REH? I don't know didn't cut the mustard. Many of the sections of the different acts you had to read 10-15 other sections with definitions to correctly understand that section. It was great rigorous training. I don't read tax law these days, but the good training stays with you for life.
Wow that explains it for sure. A real asset.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
55,727
73,789
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
tax law is a real ******, don’t get me started on fringe benefit exemption calculations
Haha, FBT was considered the best written of all those big new 1986 legislation changes - Capital Gains tax, Company tax and Imputation changes, FBT, Substantiation and documentation changes, Controlled Foreign Corporations, Superannuation, etc, even negative gearing for 1 year before Hawkie pulled it.

The bloke who headed up the writing of the FBT laws, came and worked for my firm a year or so later because his wife didn't like Canberra and she was best friends with one of the partners wife, so that partner recruited him and it was a big coup for the firm. He still is a good friend all these years on.

I know this is even more off topic than above, but that's why Labor f’ed up the election. They should have said we will have another Tax Summit like in 1985, bring representative of everyone involved in, so we don't have big unintended consequences and from the summit we will come up with the agreed changes. Trying to make so many big bang changes to the tax system from opposition left them badly exposed because they couldn't explain the changes clearly especially to pensioners. The Tax Summit was a promise at the November 1984 election.
 

Butters Made Me Do It

secretly Portia, ssh
Mar 16, 2019
2,399
12,573
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Sack Hinkleys
Great call.

Far better than when Rudd basically said “we’re nerfing company cars/novated leases WITH NO GRANDFATHERING” as an election promise, ignoring how many CBAs explicitly include access to such things, and how much government employees love car-based tax shenanigans

Though even that is better than Shorten’s visionless attempt to win by default

Hmm what thread is this again
 

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