2019 Mid Pricers

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Pea Nut said:
There are a whole number of relevant mid price options for this year. How many is too many ?? Who is going to make the cut in your starting side ??
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Pea Nut, that is exactly my query. How many is too many?
Let's look at the real options.
Defenders: Hartlett, Kolodjashnij, Williams, Smith, Roberton, Hanley, Moore & Birchall.
Mids: Rockliff, Wingard (F), Hopper, Worpell (F), Hall, Hanners, Miles & Libber.
Rucks: English, Mumford & Longer.
Forwards: Wingard, Worpell, Gresham, Kennedy, TJ Lynch & Kent.
You could seriously mount a strong case for every one of the players mentioned and they all SHOULD make money.
As we all know from experience that picking mid pricers is like playing the stock market. Pick the right ones and you make a lovely profit and the team is flying. Pick the wrong ones and watch your team crash & burn.
Let's face it though, you cannot truly succeed in this comp by playing it 100% safe. Risks do need to be taken and picking the right ones from the list above goes a long way to gaining you with that success.
Personally, I have atm got the following in my squad:
Smith, Hanley, Hall, Hanners, Longer, Worpell, Lynch and Kent. 8 in total in my starting 22. I do feel that that is 1 or 2 too many however I am really struggling to figure which of them will go. I feel they all represent great value and are all likely to increase by at least 20 points per game. A few of them have the potential to be keepers in fact.
Anyway, this is why we love this game so much. Even if it has a bloody ridiculous rolling lockout.
 
Bandicoot said:
Pea Nut, that is exactly my query. How many is too many?
Let's look at the real options.
Defenders: Hartlett, Kolodjashnij, Williams, Smith, Roberton, Hanley, Moore & Birchall.
Mids: Rockliff, Wingard (F), Hopper, Worpell (F), Hall, Hanners, Miles & Libber.
Rucks: English, Mumford & Longer.
Forwards: Wingard, Worpell, Gresham, Kennedy, TJ Lynch & Kent.
You could seriously mount a strong case for every one of the players mentioned and they all SHOULD make money.
As we all know from experience that picking mid pricers is like playing the stock market. Pick the right ones and you make a lovely profit and the team is flying. Pick the wrong ones and watch your team crash & burn.
Let's face it though, you cannot truly succeed in this comp by playing it 100% safe. Risks do need to be taken and picking the right ones from the list above goes a long way to gaining you with that success.
Personally, I have atm got the following in my squad:
Smith, Hanley, Hall, Hanners, Longer, Worpell, Lynch and Kent. 8 in total in my starting 22. I do feel that that is 1 or 2 too many however I am really struggling to figure which of them will go. I feel they all represent great value and are all likely to increase by at least 20 points per game. A few of them have the potential to be keepers in fact.
Anyway, this is why we love this game so much. Even if it has a bloody ridiculous rolling lockout.
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There's a couple of names there that I hadn't even considered in Hartlett and Kent. There's some proven players in that list. Even if you do end up with 6 in your side going in to round 1, that's still a lot of mid-pricers. Is that due to you not seeing the security from the big dollar premo's ?? In the last couple of years I have seen the benefits and the pitfalls of mid-price players. Nailing several last year set up my season and I watched everyone else in my cash league scrambling to bring those players in to their side. The year prior I also had what I thought was some good mid price options and they were a total bust and screwed my year. I set an emphasis on nailing my starting side, but nailing mid-pricers along with solid rookies who are scoring well and making cash puts you a long way ahead. Thinking about it, the past couple of years the teams leading the pack after the early rounds had definitely taken more risks with mid-pricers and had them all come off. Maybe might be worth another crack and take an extra one or two this year.
 

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Pea Nut said:
There's a couple of names there that I hadn't even considered in Hartlett and Kent. There's some proven players in that list. Even if you do end up with 6 in your side going in to round 1, that's still a lot of mid-pricers. Is that due to you not seeing the security from the big dollar premo's ?? In the last couple of years I have seen the benefits and the pitfalls of mid-price players. Nailing several last year set up my season and I watched everyone else in my cash league scrambling to bring those players in to their side. The year prior I also had what I thought was some good mid price options and they were a total bust and screwed my year. I set an emphasis on nailing my starting side, but nailing mid-pricers along with solid rookies who are scoring well and making cash puts you a long way ahead. Thinking about it, the past couple of years the teams leading the pack after the early rounds had definitely taken more risks with mid-pricers and had them all come off. Maybe might be worth another crack and take an extra one or two this year.
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No doubt, it is a huge risk. I gained/suffered a similar past to yourself. Started with a number of midprice players last year with most succeeding. This greatly helped me get to my final ranking of 26.
Two years prior to that, most of the mid priced players didn't make anywhere near enough cash to allow for the required upgrades.
Difference with this year's crop is that I am very confident that they will increase their average by 20 or more thereby generating cash and providing good scores from round 1. In previous years I was hoping they would do so.
Problem with going predominantly guns/rookies is that it usually takes three trades to do an upgrade. Only being able to do two any one week it can be limiting unless you have built up a treasure trove. With successful mid pricers it only takes two trades to get the premium you want. Another advantage is that this also gives you a few weeks to see who the new premiums are.
 
Bandicoot said:
No doubt, it is a huge risk. I gained/suffered a similar past to yourself. Started with a number of midprice players last year with most succeeding. This greatly helped me get to my final ranking of 26.
Two years prior to that, most of the mid priced players didn't make anywhere near enough cash to allow for the required upgrades.
Difference with this year's crop is that I am very confident that they will increase their average by 20 or more thereby generating cash and providing good scores from round 1. In previous years I was hoping they would do so.
Problem with going predominantly guns/rookies is that it usually takes three trades to do an upgrade. Only being able to do two any one week it can be limiting unless you have built up a treasure trove. With successful mid pricers it only takes two trades to get the premium you want. Another advantage is that this also gives you a few weeks to see who the new premiums are.
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* it ..... All in !!! You've convinced me !!!
 
I'm going to throw James Cousins's name into the ring as a low-end mid-pricer to watch in the JLT.

Has previously been primarily used as a tagger at AFL level, hence his starting price of $289K (basically an overpriced rookie), based off an average of 51 from 4 games last year. At VFL level for the Hawks, however, he was an absolute ball magnet, averaging 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 5.5 tackles per game.

Watchers of the Hawks pre-season see him as a seeming to get first crack at filling Mitchell's role in the centre square, and I'd suggest it's more likely as a ball winner rather the negating role he's played previously.
 
HolyRioli said:
I'm going to throw James Cousins's name into the ring as a low-end mid-pricer to watch in the JLT.

Has previously been primarily used as a tagger at AFL level, hence his starting price of $289K (basically an overpriced rookie), based off an average of 51 from 4 games last year. At VFL level for the Hawks, however, he was an absolute ball magnet, averaging 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 5.5 tackles per game.

Watchers of the Hawks pre-season see him as a seeming to get first crack at filling Mitchell's role in the centre square, and I'd suggest it's more likely as a ball winner rather the negating role he's played previously.
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Interesting. On top of the once proven players who are now mid-pricers for one reason or another, there's the break out players who are about to cement themselves as premos after dramatically increasing their scoring ability. Quite often due to a role change. Mills and McGrath are 2 that have been considered breakout candidates the last year or 2 and are no doubt high on the watch list again after suggestions they will get midfield roles this year.
 
Pea Nut said:
Interesting. On top of the once proven players who are now mid-pricers for one reason or another, there's the break out players who are about to cement themselves as premos after dramatically increasing their scoring ability. Quite often due to a role change. Mills and McGrath are 2 that have been considered breakout candidates the last year or 2 and are no doubt high on the watch list again after suggestions they will get midfield roles this year.
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Agree, someone like Ryan Clarke could also be of similar interest.

The difference I have with someone like Cousins and the two you've mentioned is starting price - if you're investing $530K into Mills, you kinda need him to come through.

Cousins averages the same as a rookie (60-65+) and it's no big loss; he'll still make you money. IF he gets the role I suggested (which watching the JLT should give some indication of) he's significantly less risk IMO.
 
I feel that predicting break out players is far more risky than the underpriced players mentioned above.
 
go you pups said:
Underpriced players are normally a safer bet than breakouters

Seen the likes of Gaff, Gawn, Coniglio, Devon Smith etc bust out the points

Hence why I'm keen on the likes of Brodie Smith, Williams, Greene etc

Shuey, Hanners and Sloane could be worth it too
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Why do you think there is so much interest in Williams from GWS ?? Both this format and Fantasy. Nothing about his scoring history gets me excited at all.
 

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Pea Nut said:
Agree completely, but the break out players tend to be more likely to become keepers and must haves at the end of the season.
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Problem is that many of them don't break out. In fact for every successful breakout, 4 fail to do so. For those who do, they can then become upgrade targets.
 
Pea Nut said:
Why do you think there is so much interest in Williams from GWS ?? Both this format and Fantasy. Nothing about his scoring history gets me excited at all.
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Averaged like over 80 in 2017 after showing some scoring promise the year before that and looked to be coming along nicely as a future premium before he got injured

He's 100-150k underpriced on what he's capable of imo
 
go you pups said:
Averaged like over 80 in 2017 after showing some scoring promise the year before that and looked to be coming along nicely as a future premium before he got injured

He's 100-150k underpriced on what he's capable of imo
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Yeah, averaged 83, but there's a 45, a 50 odd and a whole bunch of scores in the 60's and low 70's. Compared to some of the other mid-pricers he seems pretty risky.
 
Pea Nut said:
Yeah, averaged 83, but there's a 45, a 50 odd and a whole bunch of scores in the 60's and low 70's. Compared to some of the other mid-pricers he seems pretty risky.
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Scores in the 60s don't bother me

Most defenders throw them up then score a 90-110 the week afterwards, that's why for years the top defenders regularly averaged 85-90 (ones who played half back, not midfield like Deledio 2012 or Hodge 2015)
 
I see Williams as more of a draft player than traditional RDT. While he could prove me wrong (he's a draft favourite, so if anything I'm slightly biased in his favour), I don't see him finishing the year as a top 10, maybe top 15 defender. So while he might be value at his price, I think he'll likely need to be upgraded
 
currently have B.Smith, Hanley, Hall, Greene.

Had longer until news of his injury

Smith im pretty confident on
Hanley keen on at this stage pending JLT confirmation and no injury. If there turn out to be 4 decent def rookies he likely makes way as i do see him as high risk but im not convinced there will be 4 so having 2 def mid pricers allows me to only need on field rookie

Hall i just think has big potential ceiling but by no means locked. Hanners ruled out here for me, Miles possible but unlikely and im just not into Libba.

Greene has that potential to be a low level keeper at a bargain price. Not happy with his limited PS though and from experience with midpricers if they have poor PS they tend to start slow making them not a great pick even if they eventually hit their straps. He was in (for Heeney) in order for me to turn longer into Gawn (with spare money I already had unused). Ill want to see a decent JLT game from him, otherwise ill be looking at other options (which may well be hanley to a rookie and greene to heeney)
 
HolyRioli said:
I'm going to throw James Cousins's name into the ring as a low-end mid-pricer to watch in the JLT.

Has previously been primarily used as a tagger at AFL level, hence his starting price of $289K (basically an overpriced rookie), based off an average of 51 from 4 games last year. At VFL level for the Hawks, however, he was an absolute ball magnet, averaging 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 5.5 tackles per game.

Watchers of the Hawks pre-season see him as a seeming to get first crack at filling Mitchell's role in the centre square, and I'd suggest it's more likely as a ball winner rather the negating role he's played previously.
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https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-21/young-hawk-stakes-claim-for-vacant-midfield-spot

While not on my team due to structure, he's certainly on my watch list in JLT. A couple of good showings and he'll be a good chance of being there around one for me
 
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