2019 Non-Crows AFL Chat #3 - the off-season

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

arrowman

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 27, 2004
11,151
11,941
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
The bonus player at the high end in 2019 has directly cost them their 2020 first

How did they upgrade from 29 to 16? It cost them that 2020 1st.

It's not a bonus pick given they had a 2020 1st and now they don't.
Oh sure, not denying that. I guess I'm looking at it from the point of view of overall value.

Pick 29 holds/held little value for them, if they were going to use it on Mead and they can get Mead with points from later picks. As for the first - OK, they've effectively upgraded 29 to 16 at the cost of their 2020 first, while (sort of) keeping 29 in "value" terms.

So if their 2020 first is, say in the range of about 9, then it's cost them 9 for 16, which is a loss purely in terms of draft position, yes. And it's very unlikely their 2020 first will be in the 16 range, so yes, it's very likely to be a loss in those terms. But I can see the logic in going for some extra "cream" in 2019 depending on their views on the 2020 draft and the players they have their eye on in both drafts.

You can't make much of a case that it's a good trade in terms of raw draft positions, and maybe if it was me I wouldn't make that trade. But in terms of strategy over a couple of years... maybe.

I don't know if that makes any sense :)
 

Log in to remove this ad.

ad victoriam

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 2, 2016
9,482
8,109
Barossa
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
CDFC
Using 29 on Mead is irrelevant.

They either were using that pick to match the bid, or trading it. Either way it wasn't a live pick for Port.

The big question is why did they spend their 2020 first to upgrade pick 29?

Their 2020 1st alone will likely be worth MORE than they received for the entire deal. Then they gave 29 on top of that!

Usually you give up two later picks to move up the order. Not a pick ahead of the pick you get back
They would also be hoping Taj Schofield or Lachie Jones improve giving them a free hit in the 1st rd next year.
 

Scorpus

Sack Them All
Apr 16, 2014
40,600
95,430
AFL Club
Adelaide
Oh sure, not denying that. I guess I'm looking at it from the point of view of overall value.

Pick 29 holds/held little value for them, if they were going to use it on Mead and they can get Mead with points from later picks. As for the first - OK, they've effectively upgraded 29 to 16 at the cost of their 2020 first, while (sort of) keeping 29 in "value" terms.

So if their 2020 first is, say in the range of about 9, then it's cost them 9 for 16, which is a loss purely in terms of draft position, yes. And it's very unlikely their 2020 first will be in the 16 range, so yes, it's very likely to be a loss in those terms. But I can see the logic in going for some extra "cream" in 2019 depending on their views on the 2020 draft and the players they have their eye on in both drafts.

You can't make much of a case that it's a good trade in terms of raw draft positions, and maybe if it was me I wouldn't make that trade. But in terms of strategy over a couple of years... maybe.

I don't know if that makes any sense :)
Yeah that's fair. As I said, the value comes from whether Port believe pick 16 this year is better than their 2020 1st.

I suspect Port believe they will make finals next year, which could see their 1st in the 12-14 range. Swapping 14 for 16 is a much of a muchness.

But I have Port missing the finals again, which could have their 2020 1st more around the 6-8 mark. Even with the compromised draft next year, that's a big downgrade
 

Thetrader15

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2015
20,266
23,992
AFL Club
Adelaide
Finally someone who understands this .
The only issue is they have about 4 later picks they want to use (66, 67, 68, 71), but won't be able to unless they have the space on their list. This would mean they have to have 33 (max) on their list when it comes to the draft so they can use 7 picks at the draft.

They removed Broadbent, Johnson, Frampton, Howard, Ryder and Gray, and added Buzza, so if they started with 38, now have 33, so are in a good spot unless they add someone else to the list.

I like their strategy - 3 kids + Mead then go into the season with 38 unless they like a DFA
 

ShadeyP

Premiership Player
Jul 1, 2017
4,662
5,774
AFL Club
Adelaide
The only issue is they have about 4 later picks they want to use (66, 67, 68, 71), but won't be able to unless they have the space on their list. This would mean they have to have 33 (max) on their list when it comes to the draft so they can use 7 picks at the draft.

They removed Broadbent, Johnson, Frampton, Howard, Ryder and Gray, and added Buzza, so if they started with 38, now have 33, so are in a good spot unless they add someone else to the list.

I like their strategy - 3 kids + Mead then go into the season with 38 unless they like a DFA
They will likely trade 2-3 of those for something next year IMO ... they should never have paid for Motlop and need massive seasons from Watts and Rockliff otherwise all three of those moves are very costly . They are not letting it get stale though and for that i think they will open up a big window of contending from 2021-22 onwards with players coming off the books in Boak , Gray , Dixon , and likely those other 3 mentioned not long after . They will flip some more mature players again at the end of 2020 if they miss finals continuing the super aggressive rebuild .
 

Thetrader15

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2015
20,266
23,992
AFL Club
Adelaide
They will likely trade 2-3 of those for something next year IMO ... they should never have paid for Motlop and need massive seasons from Watts and Rockliff otherwise all three of those moves are very costly . They are not letting it get stale though and for that i think they will open up a big window of contending from 2021-22 onwards with players coming off the books in Boak , Gray , Dixon , and likely those other 3 mentioned not long after . They will flip some more mature players again at the end of 2020 if they miss finals continuing the super aggressive rebuild .
Other than salary cap, they really didn't pay much for Wots, Slops and Rocks. That said, I'd argue these three cost them Polec who was better than any of them, especially Slops who has been terrible (we dodged a bullet there). However, it was probably then that they said 'we aren't going to win a flag with this lot, let's make somes changes'. Credit to them, they are at least doing that.

Once Dixon is gone they'll be better too. I'd have shipped him off before Howard personally, but then you need to have takers (see Hartigan v Keath)
 

ShadeyP

Premiership Player
Jul 1, 2017
4,662
5,774
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other than salary cap, they really didn't pay much for Wots, Slops and Rocks. That said, I'd argue these three cost them Polec who was better than any of them, especially Slops who has been terrible (we dodged a bullet there). However, it was probably then that they said 'we aren't going to win a flag with this lot, let's make somes changes'. Credit to them, they are at least doing that.

Once Dixon is gone they'll be better too. I'd have shipped him off before Howard personally, but then you need to have takers (see Hartigan v Keath)
Agreed and nicely worded ... on the same page bud .
 

arrowman

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 27, 2004
11,151
11,941
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
They will likely trade 2-3 of those for something next year IMO ... they should never have paid for Motlop and need massive seasons from Watts and Rockliff otherwise all three of those moves are very costly . They are not letting it get stale though and for that i think they will open up a big window of contending from 2021-22 onwards with players coming off the books in Boak , Gray , Dixon , and likely those other 3 mentioned not long after . They will flip some more mature players again at the end of 2020 if they miss finals continuing the super aggressive rebuild .
I think everything they've done in the last couple of years, and this year, clearly says "aggressive rebuild", and rightly so, but the club won't say that out loud.

Top off their last few trade/draft periods with a new coach :) and they'll be (should be) back on track.

(And FWIW and I know Port aren't supposed to be our benchmark, but I believe we're not behind them, on balance. We've done better on the coaching front, but our yoof is largely untried, but... on balance, we're in a similar position.)
 

ShadeyP

Premiership Player
Jul 1, 2017
4,662
5,774
AFL Club
Adelaide
I think everything they've done in the last couple of years, and this year, clearly says "aggressive rebuild", and rightly so, but the club won't say that out loud.

Top off their last few trade/draft periods with a new coach :) and they'll be (should be) back on track.

(And FWIW and I know Port aren't supposed to be our benchmark, but I believe we're not behind them, on balance. We've done better on the coaching front, but our yoof is largely untried, but... on balance, we're in a similar position.)
Agreed , they are hedging their bets on the surface but in full rebuild mode behind closed doors which is a smart play IMO .
Crows are 12-24 months behind on rebuild path ... but ...no reason why that can not be caught up over the next year or 2 .
Both clubs need to find out exactly who they are over that period or the lean times will continue for SA footy .
Schoey is the man for Port from 2021 onwards .
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

SaltPeter

"I’m a professional bullshitter"
Jan 6, 2018
10,589
12,051
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
I think everything they've done in the last couple of years, and this year, clearly says "aggressive rebuild", and rightly so, but the club won't say that out loud.

Top off their last few trade/draft periods with a new coach :) and they'll be (should be) back on track.

(And FWIW and I know Port aren't supposed to be our benchmark, but I believe we're not behind them, on balance. We've done better on the coaching front, but our yoof is largely untried, but... on balance, we're in a similar position.)
I think our list has far better balance now.

They drafted well last year, but we are yet to see who they draft this year and how they develop. They'd expect a few decent F/S next year. However they are on the cusp of losing a lot of their old reliable talent.
 

Dudersaurus

All Australian
Oct 7, 2018
917
1,755
AFL Club
Adelaide
WTH with North and Hawthorn pick swap?

North get pick 30 and give away picks 50, 73 and a future 2nd, most likely <30.

And help Hawthorn out of a trading bind.

Well done Hawthorn.

North need the Viagra eye drops so they can take a long hard look at themselves.
 
Last edited:

Pea Nut

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 9, 2013
10,653
12,618
AFL Club
Adelaide
WTH with North and Hawthorn pick swap?

North get pick 30 and give away picks 50, 73 and a future 2nd, most likely
And help Hawthorn out of a trading bind.

Well done Hawthorn.

North need the Viagra eye drops so they can take a long hard look at themselves.
So they can see how hard they f’ed themselves.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad