Opinion 2019 Non Crows - Watts love got to do with it? #pick1herewecome

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StonesThrow said:
Maybe need a minimum scoring shots and perhaps position played?
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That's why I suggested a minimum of 20+ goals. Harder to filter by positions played, given that most databases only have quantitative information recorded.

** All three Captains meet the 20+ goal criteria.
 
Vader said:
That poses an interesting question. Who was Adelaide's least accurate goal scorer of all time? To keep it simple, could someone calculate goals/(goals+pts) for each player? Maybe limit it to those who have kicked 20+ goals, just to make it manageble (and statistically meaningful).
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While useful, that's still not the ideal way to figure it out. For starters it doesn't include kicks that were OOF.

The important part it doesn't take into account though is the difficult of the kick. You need to be able to compare the likelihood of kicking a goal from a particular spot, compared to the player's actual conversion rate. For example, I remember Nick Gill having several shots 20m out, directly in front that he absolutely sprayed. A shot from there is probably made 90% of the time, yet he'd probably be 50/50.

Similarly, Eddie Betts often takes shots at goal that other players don't even attempt. You can't consider a shot on the run from the boundary to be as bad as a set shot from 25m out, directly in front as it unfairly disadvantages players that take on more difficult shots. The trouble is, I'm not sure this data is actually tracked (or if it is, how long it's been tracked for). I know Champion Data have done comparisons of expected kicking efficiency vs actual kicking efficiency to show which player is the best kick, but I'm not sure if they've done the same for goalkicking.

Edit: Found an article from 2016 that shows what I mean in regards to kicking efficiency - https://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-20/who-is-the-best-kick-in-the-afl-the-results-may-surprise-you
 

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
While useful, that's still not the ideal way to figure it out. For starters it doesn't include kicks that were OOF.

The important part it doesn't take into account though is the difficult of the kick. You need to be able to compare the likelihood of kicking a goal from a particular spot, compared to the player's actual conversion rate. For example, I remember Nick Gill having several shots 20m out, directly in front that he absolutely sprayed. A shot from there is probably made 90% of the time, yet he'd probably be 50/50.

Similarly, Eddie Betts often takes shots at goal that other players don't even attempt. You can't consider a shot on the run from the boundary to be as bad as a set shot from 25m out, directly in front as it unfairly disadvantages players that take on more difficult shots. The trouble is, I'm not sure this data is actually tracked (or if it is, how long it's been tracked for). I know Champion Data have done comparisons of expected kicking efficiency vs actual kicking efficiency to show which player is the best kick, but I'm not sure if they've done the same for goalkicking.

Edit: Found an article from 2016 that shows what I mean in regards to kicking efficiency - https://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-20/who-is-the-best-kick-in-the-afl-the-results-may-surprise-you
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It's not even useful.

It's just interesting.

Finding out that Player X was 0.13% less than Player Y isn't gonna change the world, so this level of detail is really pointless for us average schmoes.
 
Vader said:
That poses an interesting question. Who was Adelaide's least accurate goal scorer of all time? To keep it simple, could someone calculate goals/(goals+pts) for each player? Maybe limit it to those who have kicked 20+ goals, just to make it manageble (and statistically meaningful).
Click to expand...

Of those who kicked 15 goals or more

Most accurate: Sam Kerridge (23 goals, 6 behinds, 79.3%)

Least accurate: Simon Tregenza (16 goals, 31 behinds, 34.0%)

Other highly inaccurate players include Brodie Martin, Marty Mattner and Greg Anderson, who went at under 45%
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
While useful, that's still not the ideal way to figure it out. For starters it doesn't include kicks that were OOF.

The important part it doesn't take into account though is the difficult of the kick. You need to be able to compare the likelihood of kicking a goal from a particular spot, compared to the player's actual conversion rate. For example, I remember Nick Gill having several shots 20m out, directly in front that he absolutely sprayed. A shot from there is probably made 90% of the time, yet he'd probably be 50/50.

Similarly, Eddie Betts often takes shots at goal that other players don't even attempt. You can't consider a shot on the run from the boundary to be as bad as a set shot from 25m out, directly in front as it unfairly disadvantages players that take on more difficult shots. The trouble is, I'm not sure this data is actually tracked (or if it is, how long it's been tracked for). I know Champion Data have done comparisons of expected kicking efficiency vs actual kicking efficiency to show which player is the best kick, but I'm not sure if they've done the same for goalkicking.

Edit: Found an article from 2016 that shows what I mean in regards to kicking efficiency - https://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-20/who-is-the-best-kick-in-the-afl-the-results-may-surprise-you
Click to expand...
I absolutely agree with you. My first draft of my previous post mentioned that it didn't take into account kicks which failed to score, either by going OOTF or falling short. The problem is that stats for these aren't publicly available.

Champion Data do have some of those stats, which is presumably how Foxtel come up with the kick % they show when players are taking a set shot. However, while the data exists, it's not available to the general public - only the AFL, clubs, and media organisations who pay big $$$ for the service. Even then, they only have data going back to the start of their contract. They don't have stats for games played in 1991.

So, given the data which is publicly available, goals / (goals + points) is the best we can do.
 
Vader said:
I absolutely agree with you. My first draft of my previous post mentioned that it didn't take into account kicks which failed to score, either by going OOTF or falling short. The problem is that stats for these aren't publicly available.

Champion Data do have some of those stats, which is presumably how Foxtel come up with the kick % they show when players are taking a set shot. However, while the data exists, it's not available to the general public - only the AFL, clubs, and media organisations who pay big $$$ for the service. Even then, they only have data going back to the start of their contract. They don't have stats for games played in 1991.

So, given the data which is publicly available, goals / (goals + points) is the best we can do.
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Yep, I agree with everything you said. It's a pity all the interesting stats are hidden away by CD.
 
It's great to be feeling justifiably optimistic about the coming season. It's great to be able to, quite reasonably, believe that we are contenders. It's great to be a supporter of a club that is in such good shape.


But this feeling is as nothing - nothing, I tell you - compared to the optimism of some supporters of other clubs. I offer you this:

"We'll concede some goals but eventually once everyone learns the system it will create so many mismatches around the ground that people will lose their **** minds and think their team must be doing something incredibly wrong … And then all the opposition coaches will be trying to replicate it in the off season, only to realise that s**t, Port built their fitness base up for 5 years to be able to play that sort of style..."

Think you're an optimist? Think you're even delusional at times about your own team's prospects? Read that and weep. You are an amateur.
 
arrowman said:
It's great to be feeling justifiably optimistic about the coming season. It's great to be able to, quite reasonably, believe that we are contenders. It's great to be a supporter of a club that is in such good shape.


But this feeling is as nothing - nothing, I tell you - compared to the optimism of some supporters of other clubs. I offer you this:

"We'll concede some goals but eventually once everyone learns the system it will create so many mismatches around the ground that people will lose their **** minds and think their team must be doing something incredibly wrong … And then all the opposition coaches will be trying to replicate it in the off season, only to realise that s**t, Port built their fitness base up for 5 years to be able to play that sort of style..."

Think you're an optimist? Think you're even delusional at times about your own team's prospects? Read that and weep. You are an amateur.
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Has to be J
 

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arrowman said:
"We'll concede some goals but eventually once everyone learns the system it will create so many mismatches around the ground that people will lose their **** minds and think their team must be doing something incredibly wrong … And then all the opposition coaches will be trying to replicate it in the off season, only to realise that s**t, Port built their fitness base up for 5 years to be able to play that sort of style..."

Think you're an optimist? Think you're even delusional at times about your own team's prospects? Read that and weep. You are an amateur.
Click to expand...

I’m getting déjà vu. Is it 2014 again?
 
arrowman said:
It's great to be feeling justifiably optimistic about the coming season. It's great to be able to, quite reasonably, believe that we are contenders. It's great to be a supporter of a club that is in such good shape.


But this feeling is as nothing - nothing, I tell you - compared to the optimism of some supporters of other clubs. I offer you this:

"We'll concede some goals but eventually once everyone learns the system it will create so many mismatches around the ground that people will lose their **** minds and think their team must be doing something incredibly wrong … And then all the opposition coaches will be trying to replicate it in the off season, only to realise that s**t, Port built their fitness base up for 5 years to be able to play that sort of style..."

Think you're an optimist? Think you're even delusional at times about your own team's prospects? Read that and weep. You are an amateur.
Click to expand...
Because fitness just magically appears in the 5th year after being average to below average for the previous 5 years of building.
 
arrowman said:
It's great to be feeling justifiably optimistic about the coming season. It's great to be able to, quite reasonably, believe that we are contenders. It's great to be a supporter of a club that is in such good shape.


But this feeling is as nothing - nothing, I tell you - compared to the optimism of some supporters of other clubs. I offer you this:

"We'll concede some goals but eventually once everyone learns the system it will create so many mismatches around the ground that people will lose their **** minds and think their team must be doing something incredibly wrong … And then all the opposition coaches will be trying to replicate it in the off season, only to realise that s**t, Port built their fitness base up for 5 years to be able to play that sort of style..."

Think you're an optimist? Think you're even delusional at times about your own team's prospects? Read that and weep. You are an amateur.
Click to expand...

How do you build a fitness base over 5 years? How does it take that long? Fitness isn't Janus's erotic Port Power fan fiction collection, it doesn't grow perpetually.
 
Squiba said:
Because fitness just magically appears in the 5th year after being average to below average for the previous 5 years of building.
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It's why Port can steamroll any other team at the death, even if they've been behind all game.

Or am I getting my opposition teams mixed up?
 
Really it’s in our best interests if Port has the odd win against the higher ranked teams.

It won’t make any difference as they are going nowhere except for cementing themselves as a 9-12 ranked side.
 
Elite Crow said:
Really it’s in our best interests if Port has the odd win against the higher ranked teams.

It won’t make any difference as they are going nowhere except for cementing themselves as a 9-12 ranked side.
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I reckon Port will make the finals they'll finish 8 and lose the elimination final, Kenny gets praise, the team 'is on the right track' they'll trade their pick 12 for another missing piece.
We sit and laugh at them
 
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