2019 Planning Thread

[Tyruddanaut]

What do people see Miles averaging?

~80

 

[HEYTRUEROO]

What do people see Miles averaging?

Averaged 100 in 2014 (12 games), 97 in 2015 (22 games) and 90 in 2016 (19 games).

I think it's fair to guess at 90-95 ave provided he gets a fair crack at games 20-ish.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Averaged 100 in 2014 (12 games), 97 in 2015 (22 games) and 90 in 2016 (19 games).

I think it's fair to guess at 90-95 ave provided he gets a fair crack at games 20-ish.

You'd think that would make him a lock.

He's priced at roughly 62 average. He's scored under 62 ten times in his career (one was a sub game, so really nine). Most being in his first few years at GWS. Gonna have a lot more ball now compared Richmonds midfield. I think he can go 100+.

 

[HEYTRUEROO]

You'd think that would make him a lock.

He's priced at roughly 62 average. He's scored under 62 ten times in his career (one was a sub game, so really nine). Most being in his first few years at GWS. Gonna have a lot more ball now compared Richmonds midfield. I think he can go 100+.

Love the optimism. He's in my team atm and very unlikely to get cut too.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Changes I'm making to 2019:

No more speculative/'value' picks and an increase of premium options:
This goes for most mid-pricers, although I am open to a few, e.g. Blakey, Brayshaw and Lynch. By taking the players that you can almost guarantee to be top scorers, you theoretically can increase team output to begin the season, and reduce the risk of luxury trades.
Rookies have an average MVP value of $2,200 per point. Almost all other players will have the MVP value of the magic number, which is around 5440±50 this year. By having fewer premiums, there is space for more rookies, therefore, having a lower average MVP value and maximising value for money. To maximise potential point production, having the best of the best will be necessary, which, byes aside, might mean going with G + G in the rucks.
I have ruled out Liberatore - Last time he had a year off football his average dropped by 20 and 10 the year after that to 80. Going with the same trend, I don't see him averaging more than 75.
I have ruled out Williams - Only has shown potential to average 95+ but never really shown us he could. I would prefer to choose Hibberd at that price.

No deliberate 'loophole players':
I am looking to begin the season with around 5 Bulldogs players (Macrae, Dunkley, Smith, Cavarra, Hayes), and 3 Fremantle players (Valente, Bewley and Schultz). I have no guarantee that those Fremantle players will play in the initial half of the season but expect 5 or more games overall for each of them. A similar concept with the Bulldogs players, I will be removing those who do not appear in round one and believe that Cavarra and Hayes will not still be playing on the other end of the season when the Dogs have most of their home games. Once last season I faced a doughnut, and the other time I was forced to put Keefe on the field, when his initial function was to swing with Sicily and TMac. In the rucks, I will either purchase an expensive R3 or a player who will potentially player later in the season (Fort, Clarke, De Koning)

Excellent post & some good thoughts

Regarding the

Rookies have an average MVP value of $2,200 per point. Almost all other players will have the MVP value of the magic number, which is around 5440±50 this year. By having fewer premiums, there is space for more rookies, therefore, having a lower average MVP value and maximising value for money

I've seen a few teams that have a lot of midpricers and less Rookies .....IMO you have to get that mix correct, as the object is two-fold; maximize ranking / competition wins, whilst generating cash from Rookies to get to full premo

Last year, those $200K Rookies, failed to score sufficient to generate cash quickly enough .....if you take a Miles, Libba, Hannerberry ....they're more for match-day points, rather than cash generation ....but you have to get the team mix correct

I haven't gone Williams, as I agree he's a 90 average player ......yet looking at Birchell, at $200K cheaper his average is 84 approx .....so for me he's the better value, if he can get up

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Averaged 100 in 2014 (12 games), 97 in 2015 (22 games) and 90 in 2016 (19 games).

I think it's fair to guess at 90-95 ave provided he gets a fair crack at games 20-ish.

Is Miles a keeper in your mind, or a stepping stone?

 

[HEYTRUEROO]

Is Miles a keeper in your mind, or a stepping stone?

Stepping stone, however circumstances could change and would make for a very handy M9 come end of year.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Miles is an interesting one.

He is a ball magnet, i think you can carry a maximum of 2 out of Miles, Hanners and Libba.

Who do you take!?

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Stepping stone, however circumstances could change and would make for a very handy M9 come end of year.

Has the ideal round 14 bye too, so you could dump him then for a premo fresh off their bye.

I don't mind Miles as a pick, but just can't see how he is assured games in a team where Barlow couldn't get a gig. Don't trust Dew.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Miles is an interesting one.

He is a ball magnet, i think you can carry a maximum of 2 out of Miles, Hanners and Libba.

Who do you take!?

None. If I was forced to take one then Libba

 

[Daniel McL]

I don’t know if I can stay away from Libba anymore, I’m not strong enough

 

[bananatigz]

I don’t know if I can stay away from Libba anymore, I’m not strong enough
View attachment 596627

For a guy who we know is more than capable of averaging 100+, I’m not sure why people are so apprehensive of him at 300k. That is super dooper cheap, he’s come back to pre-season in good knick and if he gets through a full summer and lines up for that first centre bounce come round 1, he’s a no brainer for me.

 

[Daniel McL]

For a guy who we know is more than capable of averaging 100+, I’m not sure why people are so apprehensive of him at 300k. That is super dooper cheap, he’s come back to pre-season in good knick and if he gets through a full summer and lines up for that first centre bounce come round 1, he’s a no brainer for me.

For me it’s because of the two ACL’s & ongoing management (weeks off) and arthroscopes of the knee if it starts getting sore during the season which is likely to happen, it just depends how sore it is, if it’s minor or somehow nonexistent then Libba will be able to play through it and it’s not a worry.

Also you’ve got Macrae in the midfield, Bontempelli (unless they want to keep him forward more), Hunter can play an outside role but still would play inside at times, Dunkley was fantastic when given a chance in there late in the season, McLean at times, Wallis at times, how many games Bailey Smith will get in the midfield in his debut season, all taking away from Libba’s point scoring.

The thing that helps Libba is that he can only play inside mid compared to a Bont (forward), Hunter (wing), McLean & Wallis (forward). If he has a full preseason then fantastic but I’m still going to wait and see in the JLT to see if they play Libba in the centre at all times or trial him out of position like a wing or half forward which if that happens I’ll pass on him because he has to be inside mid racking up contested possessions and tackles.

 

[Tyruddanaut]

I don't understand stepping stones.

If a player is ~3 times the price of a rookie, they need to score ~4 times as much to have a better return on investment

 

[Leftyitis]

I don't understand stepping stones.

If a player is ~3 times the price of a rookie, they need to score ~4 times as much to have a better return on investment

I guess the probability of a higher average than a 1st year player. You'ld think in this case with Miles, he'll play loads of midfield minutes and has previous shown good numbers. Definitely a discounted player. He's in my team at this point.

 

[DERIBERATE]

I don't understand stepping stones.

If a player is ~3 times the price of a rookie, they need to score ~4 times as much to have a better return on investment

Because the most points wins, not the most money

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Because the most points wins, not the most money

Yep, it's getting the balance correct to score points each week, but also generate enough cash to upgrade, to score even more points

 

[Tyruddanaut]

Because the most points wins, not the most money

Same deal with points, it's better to have one 700k player and 2 100k rookies than 3 300k players because of value for money

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Same deal with points, it's better to have one 700k player and 2 100k rookies than 3 300k players because of value for money

And the cash generation from the low priced Rookies .....so agree, the 1 x $700K + 2 x $100K rookies are best .....but only if the Rookies play regularly & score more than 25 p a match .....and ATS this is what we don't know

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Anyone see a reason why Heppell can’t go to 110+? I can see plenty of reason to start him and Merrett with Sheil coming in.

 

[gutsroy]

None. If I was forced to take one then Libba

Was keen on Hanners, but his hamstring awareness has given me cactus awareness for the time being.

 

[Kadog]

Changes I'm making to 2019:

No more speculative/'value' picks and an increase of premium options:
This goes for most mid-pricers, although I am open to a few, e.g. Blakey, Brayshaw and Lynch. By taking the players that you can almost guarantee to be top scorers, you theoretically can increase team output to begin the season, and reduce the risk of luxury trades.
Rookies have an average MVP value of $2,200 per point. Almost all other players will have the MVP value of the magic number, which is around 5440±50 this year. By having fewer premiums, there is space for more rookies, therefore, having a lower average MVP value and maximising value for money. To maximise potential point production, having the best of the best will be necessary, which, byes aside, might mean going with G + G in the rucks.
I have ruled out Liberatore - Last time he had a year off football his average dropped by 20 and 10 the year after that to 80. Going with the same trend, I don't see him averaging more than 75.
I have ruled out Williams - Only has shown potential to average 95+ but never really shown us he could. I would prefer to choose Hibberd at that price.

No deliberate 'loophole players':
I am looking to begin the season with around 5 Bulldogs players (Macrae, Dunkley, Smith, Cavarra, Hayes), and 3 Fremantle players (Valente, Bewley and Schultz). I have no guarantee that those Fremantle players will play in the initial half of the season but expect 5 or more games overall for each of them. A similar concept with the Bulldogs players, I will be removing those who do not appear in round one and believe that Cavarra and Hayes will not still be playing on the other end of the season when the Dogs have most of their home games. Once last season I faced a doughnut, and the other time I was forced to put Keefe on the field, when his initial function was to swing with Sicily and TMac. In the rucks, I will either purchase an expensive R3 or a player who will potentially player later in the season (Fort, Clarke, De Koning)

You sure you’re only 15?

 

[gutsroy]

You need to give yourself a good shake-up & slap around .....your search for that POD is giving you irrational thoughts ....snap out !

Yeah, wouldn't consider most unless there were really strong reasons to, just seeing what is there in terms of 'value' players.
Darcy Moore 250-odd k with DPP, GHS etc., but none of them look that promising. Cockatoo for mine potentially an outside chance, body would be a worry even short term, though.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yeah, wouldn't consider most unless there were really strong reasons to, just seeing what is there in terms of 'value' players.
Darcy Moore 250-odd k with DPP, GHS etc., but none of them look that promising. Cockatoo for mine potentially an outside chance, body would be a worry even short term, though.

No and No ......the search continues

 

[Me Myself and I]

Anyone see a reason why Heppell can’t go to 110+? I can see plenty of reason to start him and Merrett with Sheil coming in.

I just think people are over rating the effect Shiel will have on Essendon. Give the guy his due, he's a good player but a very good or elite player no. Don't think he will be copping all of the opposition's attention. OK, he a good pick up but can't see him having the impact being suggested. He'll be a solid consistent player who will play his role well each week while the other two are likely to hurt the opposition more. 110 a bit optimistic for Heppell, nearer 100 in my books.