Discussion 2019 Planning Thread

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Obese Arachnid

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Thats a far deeper question that is separate to the topic on hand. All players score differently. You are asking to go through and explain why all players score they way they do and then figure out what effect teammate may have on that. Sorry but not interested in doing a PHD on supercoach.
Let's settle this over a beer.

 

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gutsroy

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The total price pool seems to be around 270m if you double count the DPP players, 244.4m if you only count them once.

Thought out would be a round number for some reason, but it doesn't seem to be.
 

gutsroy

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I don't get guys starting with Goldy and talking of trading him out to the fallen Grundy/Gawn.
wouldn't it make more sense to start Hoff then swing him fwd when we have funds and price has bottomed out on The big G's?
I thought one of the golden rules was don't trade playing premos...what am I missing here guys?
if you start with Goldy you back him for the year, if you start with someone like Kreuzer/Hickey or really anyone under 500K I could see it.
...not Goldy though!
wasted trades!
Hoff gives good flexibility, just a fair few would be thinking be might revert to the career mean a bit, and then he's a touch expensive for what he offers.
Agree on Goldy, makes more sense to go him if you reckon he'll go close enough to Grundy and / or Gawn that you start and retain.
But say one of the big two drops a heap of cash (like Gawn working with Preuss early, losing cash, and then Preuss gets dropped) and Goldy pulls a ridiculous 200 or something up against some bandy-legged pygmy, you could trade Goldy at his peak for Gawn and even pocket cash on the transaction.
Not saying that will happen, just that stuff like that can happen sometimes, never say never.
 

nameless

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Hoff gives good flexibility, just a fair few would be thinking be might revert to the career mean a bit, and then he's a touch expensive for what he offers.
Agree on Goldy, makes more sense to go him if you reckon he'll go close enough to Grundy and / or Gawn that you start and retain.
But say one of the big two drops a heap of cash (like Gawn working with Preuss early, losing cash, and then Preuss gets dropped) and Goldy pulls a ridiculous 200 or something up against some bandy-legged pygmy, you could trade Goldy at his peak for Gawn and even pocket cash on the transaction.
Not saying that will happen, just that stuff like that can happen sometimes, never say never.
If Goldy is pulling 200s, you sure you gonna trade him?

This is what I don't get about starting 2nd tier rucks.
If they're averaging 110 and Gawn/Grundy are averaging 90 and then maybe pull a 150 game, are you really going to use a trade for that?

Lets face it, you'll likely be dealing with injuries/suspensions/forms drops elsewhere, plus a rookie could be on the bubble that you need to jump on, while another position may have a fallen premo who's turned it around that you can upgrade a rookie to.

Either pick Goldy etc. to keep (or trade in last few rounds as luxury) or pick a cheap ruck who will go up in value (hard to find, I know), or just start with Gawndy and be done with it.
 

gutsroy

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If Goldy is pulling 200s, you sure you gonna trade him?

This is what I don't get about starting 2nd tier rucks.
If they're averaging 110 and Gawn/Grundy are averaging 90 and then maybe pull a 150 game, are you really going to use a trade for that?

Lets face it, you'll likely be dealing with injuries/suspensions/forms drops elsewhere, plus a rookie could be on the bubble that you need to jump on, while another position may have a fallen premo who's turned it around that you can upgrade a rookie to.

Either pick Goldy etc. to keep (or trade in last few rounds as luxury) or pick a cheap ruck who will go up in value (hard to find, I know), or just start with Gawndy and be done with it.
If you think the 200 has him priced higher than true value and the Preuss thing having hampered Gawn but Gawn having a clear run moving forward (meaning he would be underpriced vs projected output), why not take advantage of the market inefficiency or at least consider it?
Reckon people stick too rigidly to the dogma on not trading premiums at times, tbh.
Thirty trades gives you a couple for ‘sidewaysing’.
Not my plan at all, I’m picking Goldy because I reckon he’ll do well and the gap to whomever I don’t go of Gawn and Grundy will be less than the starting price differential, but always reevaluate your squad with a fresh pair of eyes and look at true value vs priced to value.
 

gutsroy

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Good podcast on Dr SuperCoach taking a look at early results of rule changes for those interested.
For those with less time, their answer seemed to be: Less than they thought.
 
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Good podcast on Dr SuperCoach taking a look at early results of rule changes for those interested.
For those with less time, their answer seemed to be: Less than they thought.
This feedback from the Crows Defensive Coach about last weeks U23 game

The new rules gave a glimpse of what to expect in 2019, with defenders at a significant disadvantage with the introduction of the 6-6-6 centre bounce structure rule.

“The biggest impact is the 6-6-6 because it really opens up the ground,” he said.

“If we lose the centre bounce, defenders are one-on-one in the goal square, so they’ll have to get the job done on their own without relying on support.”
 

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SterlingArcher

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If Goldy is pulling 200s, you sure you gonna trade him?

This is what I don't get about starting 2nd tier rucks.
If they're averaging 110 and Gawn/Grundy are averaging 90 and then maybe pull a 150 game, are you really going to use a trade for that?

Lets face it, you'll likely be dealing with injuries/suspensions/forms drops elsewhere, plus a rookie could be on the bubble that you need to jump on, while another position may have a fallen premo who's turned it around that you can upgrade a rookie to.

Either pick Goldy etc. to keep (or trade in last few rounds as luxury) or pick a cheap ruck who will go up in value (hard to find, I know), or just start with Gawndy and be done with it.
Yes.

Your example is an obvious embellishment of plans. No one is planning on Goldstein averaging 110 and Gawn/Grundy averaging 90, no one at all is planning on that.

People are planning on Gawn/Grundy averaging maybe 115 early on, and Goldy in the 105-110 range which at 150k less is a win. Then as the season progresses, that 150k will be close to 0k. At which stage you sideways and hope Gawn/Grundy lift to 2018 scores.

That's the plan. If Goldstein scores 200 I`d 100% trade him out too if Gawn/Grundy were in form too because that's a clear outlier and while it will boost his season average - it's about buy low sell high. As an example - Goldstein averages 105 for the year - add in a 200 as an outlier and the other 21 games are at 100.5...do you bank that 200 and chase the 115 a week from Grundy, or do you go “nah he got 200 he`s gonna average 105!”
 

SterlingArcher

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I don't get why planning on trading a subpremo to a super premo that starts the year needing to maintain a what, 133? 135? average to not drop in price is such a no-no. It costs 1 trade yes but you have 30 - you're telling me that you can't plan 1 sideways?? To get a super premo for 150k less than everyone else AND with increased form exposure etc?
 

Hai_Newman

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Funny example of this was big bootaaaaah when he traded Dangerfield who was priced at 730-750 if I recall correctly.
Danger hit his max then BB sideways traded him to Doc when he broke out.
3 weeks later the jaggy kent gets Danger at 570ish, many on this board where super impressed by his pure arsey move.
 

Obese Arachnid

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Is Roberton at D3 to thin in defence ? Or is anyone else getting a swolen chol at the thought of that extra $$$ spent elsewhere
Not sure but I had a swollen Chol a couple of days ago, stepped on a rake.

Have a party to go to this weekend, so thinking of doing it again, so I can wave it around impressively.
 

Girthquake

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Not sure but I had a swollen Chol a couple of days ago, stepped on a rake.

Have a party to go to this weekend, so thinking of doing it again, so I can wave it around impressively.
Ah yes quite a nice move if I do say so myself , old family trick my grandfather taught me was inserting the chol into a cylinder shaped piece of Tupperware and making it do the Kylie Jenner lip challenge before social gatherings, Girth is my specialty
 
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Ah yes quite a nice move if I do say so myself , old family trick my grandfather taught me was inserting the chol into a cylinder shaped piece of Tupperware and making it do the Kylie Jenner lip challenge before social gatherings, Girth is my specialty
It says so right there in your user name :moustache:
 

Suma Magic

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I guess this is the right place.

I am making a spreadsheet where you input assumptions and it will, organised by position and premium/mid-priced/rookie, spit out:
- price increases over time
- r1 score
- bye implications
- estimated number of games missed (based on assumption about injury/JS risk).

So you can weigh up these 4 considerations for various team combos to help inform squad selection.

Thought I’d share it once done, but then I thought maybe there could be other outputs to add which could be useful. I’m happy to add any in, noting my excel skills could be described as “advanced beginner”.
 

GhostofJimJess

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It's bound to have been asked somewhere, but scrolling through 150+ pages is just not gonna happen - does anyone know where I can download or copy/paste a complete list of players and their 2019 prices for a private draft league? Preferably in ranked pre-season order of Grundy to Stack?
Cheers in advance,
Ghost
 
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