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2019 Planning Thread

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JustInsideFifty said:
Big fan of going cheap in the rucks, but that is REALLY cheap, and I can't see where the money went.
D goes to 1.5
M is deep and good, but that's also where the best rookies usually are.
R goes to 0
F goes to 1.75

I count 12 keepers if everything goes beautifully. If it doesn't, maybe 9?

Cut a couple of mids and upgrade elsewhere. 180k (Smith) on the bench isn't ideal.
Click to expand...
Cheers for the feedback. Yeah I'm toying with moves like Smith-->bottom priced rookie, premo-->Liberatore and English to Grundy. Or swap a premium mid for Laird or Heeney and get a rookie mid. I just don't trust rucks and paying so much for Grundy isn't super appealing. If English fails (which is very possible) I can move to Mumford who'll be on the bubble before round 5. I'll wait and see how the rookies look then decide before round 1.
SterlingArcher said:
Rookies in mids are normally best bang for your buck (think Tim Kelly), in your team you would potentially be wasting a Kelly on the bench. Dropping 2 mids to rookies would give you an extra good forward and defender and allow you to potentially upgrade a Smith/Wingard to the next 'tier'. Having said that, most teams go with approx 5 good mids (generally with good reason), but it'd make your team different at least to 95% of other teams.
Click to expand...
I think I'll sit on this team now, purely because it's different from everyone else and then decide how much it needs changing prior to round 1. I'm set on Cripps, Neale, Merrett and Yeo in the mids. The other gun mids could go out for premiums in other positions if there's lots of midfield rookies available for round 1. Alternatively I'll roll with seven premium midfielders if they aren't so good.
 
Most plan on having a complete side by the end of the byes. Any uber premiums not started need to be traded in before round 14.
Here are the price fluctuations and averages of players after a 120+ season

1548163477009.png
There were 5 last year, Grundy, Mitchell, Gawn, Macrae and Dangerfield.
Excluding these 5 there have been 27 120+ seasons.
In the following season:

4/27 (15%) suffered long term injury.

Of the remaining 23 players, all decreased in price before round 14
Only 4/23 (17%) became more expensive at any point before round 14.
15/23 (65%) will decrease $100,000+ at their cheapest before round 14.

7/23 (30%) remained over $600,000 for the entire first 14 rounds
13/23 (57%) were priced $500,000 to 600,000 at their cheapest before round 14.
3/23 (13%) became under $500,000 at their cheapest before round 14.

5/23 (22%) averaged 130+
12/23 (52%) averaged 120+
16/23 (70%) averaged 115+
21/23 (91%) averaged 110+
22/23 (96%) average 100+

Still unsure whether to start them or not
 

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turtles said:
Most plan on having a complete side by the end of the byes. Any uber premiums not started need to be traded in before round 14.
Here are the price fluctuations and averages of players after a 120+ season

View attachment 609162
There were 5 last year, Grundy, Mitchell, Gawn, Macrae and Dangerfield.
Excluding these 5 there have been 27 120+ seasons.
In the following season:

4/27 (15%) suffered long term injury.

Of the remaining 23 players, all decreased in price before round 14
Only 4/23 (17%) became more expensive at any point before round 14.
15/23 (65%) will decrease $100,000+ at their cheapest before round 14.

7/23 (30%) remained over $600,000 for the entire first 14 rounds
13/23 (57%) were priced $500,000 to 600,000 at their cheapest before round 14.
3/23 (13%) became under $500,000 at their cheapest before round 14.

5/23 (22%) averaged 130+
12/23 (52%) averaged 120+
16/23 (70%) averaged 115+
21/23 (91%) averaged 110+
22/23 (96%) average 100+

Still unsure whether to start them or not
Click to expand...
Quality.
Seems the list is full of inconsistent performers. Except for the Ablett's and Pendlebury's of the world. Its just so hard to stay at that level. The only one I see maintaining it from that list is Mitchell, but he's gone.
I'd imagine the others will drop back to a 105-115. Which is still very good, but not great value. Thats what makes the rucks so hard this year. Even at a 110 average, it's still well above what most other rucks are going to put out.
 
Deliverance said:
Quality.
Seems the list is full of inconsistent performers. Except for the Ablett's and Pendlebury's of the world. Its just so hard to stay at that level. The only one I see maintaining it from that list is Mitchell, but he's gone.
I'd imagine the others will drop back to a 105-115. Which is still very good, but not great value. Thats what makes the rucks so hard this year. Even at a 110 average, it's still well above what most other rucks are going to put out.
Click to expand...
I did read a few seasons ago, to be wary of selecting players who had a 30+ average score increase on the previous year ....often that average falls back close to the players annual average scoring

I still factor this thinking into my team selection, plus how a player finishes his previous season over the last 4 games
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
I did read a few seasons ago, to be wary of selecting players who had a 30+ average score increase on the previous year ....often that average falls back close to the players annual average scoring

I still factor this thinking into my team selection, plus how a player finishes his previous season over the last 4 games
Click to expand...

So, Grundy must be a concern at $708K?

1548200156606.png

At least Gawn has been 115+ before.
 
Dan12 said:
Just threw this together and have no clue if it's good. Apologies if my rucks make you spew.
View attachment 609008
Click to expand...
Bailey Smith currently looking unlikely to get a round 1 spot. Still hasn’t joined full training so probably coming from too far back.
 

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Changa10 said:
So, Grundy must be a concern at $708K?

View attachment 609266

At least Gawn has been 115+ before.
Click to expand...
based on the theory .... yes

would not surprise to see him drop back to a 115 ave .... but he’s still a keeper at that average and might as well save a trade by starting him
 
Deliverance said:
Quality.
Seems the list is full of inconsistent performers. Except for the Ablett's and Pendlebury's of the world. Its just so hard to stay at that level. The only one I see maintaining it from that list is Mitchell, but he's gone.
I'd imagine the others will drop back to a 105-115. Which is still very good, but not great value. Thats what makes the rucks so hard this year. Even at a 110 average, it's still well above what most other rucks are going to put out.
Click to expand...

Excluding Ablett and pendles, they seem to average 110 to 120.
My current position:
Macrae: not selected as cheaper mids can achieve this.
Dangerfield: selected, no cheaper forwards will achieve this.
Gawn and Grundy: unsure. Possible cheaper rucks achieve this.
Starting Grundy or not is my real dilemma
 
Northernsoul74 said:
Bailey Smith currently looking unlikely to get a round 1 spot. Still hasn’t joined full training so probably coming from too far back.
Click to expand...
So is Smith injured ... or not up to the fitness levels ??
 

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WaynesWorld19 said:
based on the theory .... yes

would not surprise to see him drop back to a 115 ave .... but he’s still a keeper at that average and might as well save a trade by starting him
Click to expand...

But, if he reverts back to his 97/98 averages of 2016/17, then others like Goldy or Big Boy would be better value. Does Beams inclusion, and Treloar's return from injury affect Grundy's scoring? Pies mids tend to rack up the points, although Grundy is almost another mid himself averaging 20 disp and 5 tackles last year!

This is probably the thing that is doing my head in the most. Gawn/Grundy, Grundy/Goldy, Gawn/Goldy, or Goldy/Big Boy. Suppose it depends a lot on what I can achieve with the extra cash. A long way off deciding on rucks atm.

At this stage I'm on Grundy/Goldy, but Maxy just keeps staring me down.
 
Changa10 said:
But, if he reverts back to his 97/98 averages of 2016/17, then others like Goldy or Big Boy would be better value. Does Beams inclusion, and Treloar's return from injury affect Grundy's scoring? Pies mids tend to rack up the points, although Grundy is almost another mid himself averaging 20 disp and 5 tackles last year!

This is probably the thing that is doing my head in the most. Gawn/Grundy, Grundy/Goldy, Gawn/Goldy, or Goldy/Big Boy. Suppose it depends a lot on what I can achieve with the extra cash. A long way off deciding on rucks atm.

At this stage I'm on Grundy/Goldy, but Maxy just keeps staring me down.
Click to expand...
The popular theory is Ruckman will be even more important this year, due to the 6 x 6 x 6 structure opening up the midfield more

IMO this will also favour the clearance kings more in the midfield
 
BuddysBuddy23 said:
513775. League code for anyone wanting a spot. All welcome. No cash, just sick of playing against my campaigner mates each year who keep bringing down the league average
Click to expand...
I'm In ....League Average should go up now :moustache:
 
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