2019 Premiership Predictions + Dark Horses to play finals

Will Richmond win the 2019 premiership?

  • Yes

    Votes: 40 24.2%
  • Finish Runners Up

    Votes: 13 7.9%
  • Bow out in the Prelims

    Votes: 60 36.4%
  • Semi Finalists

    Votes: 28 17.0%
  • First round exit

    Votes: 12 7.3%
  • Won't play finals

    Votes: 12 7.3%

  • Total voters
    165
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I think Bulldogs and North both strong chances to play finals this year, they would be my dark horses. North need their tall defenders to stay injury free. Bulldogs I liked the way they finished last year will be a lot more competitive than most people think, they have a whole host of players ready to take the next step.
 

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Scotland

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What is the definition of dark horse?

Four teams finished 2018 on 12 wins, Geelong finished 8th on 13. I don't think it's a massive stretch to say that North or Port could play finals in 2019.

I reckon only the bottom 6 are legitimate dark horse contenders to make the 8. Freo are a good shout. Missed out the last 3 years winning 4, 8, 8 games. Neale going out will hurt but they still have a superstar mid in Fyfe and adding Hogan and Lobb will make a huge difference. Last year Walters was the leading goalkicker with 22, in 2017 it was McCarthy with 25, and in 2016 it was Walters with 36. Hogan has kicked 40+ in 3 of the last 4 seasons and kicked 20 in 10 the year he was sick. Lobb is less of a goalkicker but adds ruck depth and is a great marking target.

I like Brisbane, too. Rarely does a team win 5 games all year and have a percentage of 89. 5 losses under 10 points last year, ouch. Neale and Lyons will be handy additions. Just need Hipwood and McStay to continue to improve up forward.
 

Macpotata

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Thread starter #104
What is the definition of dark horse?

Four teams finished 2018 on 12 wins, Geelong finished 8th on 13. I don't think it's a massive stretch to say that North or Port could play finals in 2019.

I reckon only the bottom 6 are legitimate dark horse contenders to make the 8. Freo are a good shout. Missed out the last 3 years winning 4, 8, 8 games. Neale going out will hurt but they still have a superstar mid in Fyfe and adding Hogan and Lobb will make a huge difference. Last year Walters was the leading goalkicker with 22, in 2017 it was McCarthy with 25, and in 2016 it was Walters with 36. Hogan has kicked 40+ in 3 of the last 4 seasons and kicked 20 in 10 the year he was sick. Lobb is less of a goalkicker but adds ruck depth and is a great marking target.

I like Brisbane, too. Rarely does a team win 5 games all year and have a percentage of 89. 5 losses under 10 points last year, ouch. Neale and Lyons will be handy additions. Just need Hipwood and McStay to continue to improve up forward.
Dark horse imo is an outsider. A smokey.


Dark horse definition

a candidate or competitor about whom little is known but who unexpectedly wins or succeeds.

"a Gloucester side that could be a dark horse for the title"


As you are aware.


Good post btw enjoyed it:thumbsu:
 

Scotland

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There are dark horses for the flag, but tipping a team that won 12 games and was still in the top 8 in Rd 21 to make the finals isn't really going out on a limb.

My flag dark horse would be Essendon. Finished a game outside the top 8 and Joe Daniher was a non factor. Played the first handful of games, clearly wasn't fit then didn't play again after kicking 65 goals in 2017. They're a bit like Melbourne in that they can be awesome one week and rubbish the next but their best footy is very good. Added Smith (B&F) last year plus Saad and Stringer and this year will have Shiel who is a jet.
 

Young Gun #6

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Dark horse to play finals relies definitely out of Port, North and Brisbane. The others below them are way too far back ie Carlton, Gold Coast etc and most are predicting that these 3 won’t play finals so alas they are the most likely Smokeys imo.
 

bungalow_bill

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What is the definition of dark horse?

Four teams finished 2018 on 12 wins, Geelong finished 8th on 13. I don't think it's a massive stretch to say that North or Port could play finals in 2019.

I reckon only the bottom 6 are legitimate dark horse contenders to make the 8. Freo are a good shout. Missed out the last 3 years winning 4, 8, 8 games. Neale going out will hurt but they still have a superstar mid in Fyfe and adding Hogan and Lobb will make a huge difference. Last year Walters was the leading goalkicker with 22, in 2017 it was McCarthy with 25, and in 2016 it was Walters with 36. Hogan has kicked 40+ in 3 of the last 4 seasons and kicked 20 in 10 the year he was sick. Lobb is less of a goalkicker but adds ruck depth and is a great marking target.

I like Brisbane, too. Rarely does a team win 5 games all year and have a percentage of 89. 5 losses under 10 points last year, ouch. Neale and Lyons will be handy additions. Just need Hipwood and McStay to continue to improve up forward.
Apparently McCarthy is flying at the moment. If he stays fit will also be a handy addition. Same with Marcus Adams
 

JPetro83

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Richmond will win the flag
Collingwood will finish between 7th-10th
Adelaide will finish top 4 (Dark Horse for flag.. well not really a darkhorse with our list/age/games played etc but we will be the team outside the 8 to push up)
side note prediction: Port will beat the Dees in round 1 (Port are the darkhorse to make finials)
 

harrythetiger

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Interesting stuff here. Sydney really low but their finish to the year explains some of that.

16 teams are modelled to win between 8 and 15 games. That tells me the league is really close.

I don't like Freo or St Kilda's chances of playing finals but both should at least get to 7 or 8 wins if they stay healthy. If either side burst out the gate with a hot start they'd drastically increase their chances of playing finals. Same goes for the Dogs. Lions and Port should be around the mark.

There's 10 teams from the Crows up who probably expect to play finals.
The closeness of the ladder is what happens when you aggregate data. The cats, for example finish on top in this with under 15 wins, but that's because there's plenty of simulations with very few wins acting against ones with 15+. If there was a table showing 'average wins of 1st' (etc.), it would look more normal.
 

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Can Melbourne end the longest premiership drought in the AFL? A couple of our experts believe the Demons have the list to go all the way and win their first flag since 1964. All of them expect the red and the blue to feature prominently in September. But reflecting the evenness at the pointy end of the ladder, there are also those who are bullish about Collingwood and Richmond lifting the cup. Oh, and what about last year’s premiers, West Coast? The consensus is that they will at least make it through to preliminary final weekend, with some believing they can go back to back.

Who will be the big improvers?
The shared belief is that Adelaide will bounce back from their annus horribilis and not only play in the finals again, but possibly contend for the flag. And then there’s Essendon, who have the longest drought in the AFL without a finals win, dating back to the days when Jobe Watson was just a chubby teenager trying to make a name for himself (2004). All of our experts believe that the Bombers’ aggressive recruiting policy over the past two seasons will be rewarded with a chance to end that barren spell come September.

Two of the powerhouses of the past decade are the teams nominated to drop away this season: Hawthorn and Sydney. Time may finally catch up with the ageing Swans and the loss of Tom Mitchell could be a telling blow for the Hawks. There is only one pundit prepared to back in each club for September. Then again, both clubs have been written off before in recent times and defied the critics.



aving lost three captains in as many years and a handful of other stars along the way, the young Gold Coast outfit is odds on to take bottom spot on the ladder. But there are a couple of other clubs nominated to emerge with the spoon this year. The good news for fans of last year’s wooden spooners, Carlton, is that most believe the Blues will show signs that they are turning it around this season.
 

Balls In

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I think West Coast will win the 2019 flag and not necessarily for the reasons people think. As an interstate club ladder position will be the key for us headed into finals as we cant be travelling week after week away. I think we now have 32 players who can rotate through a best 22 including coverage on every line and so we will win enough to slot top four.

Willy Rioli enters his second year with a seemingly open ended ceiling, former good average player Sheed has now played 7 straight games like peak Judd - has thrashed all his PB time trials and is looking big through his upper torso could go next level. Vardy is the version Geelong dreamed of before injuries derailed him, Darling is looking like a monster. Schofield might get squeezed out of our best 22 or win an AA as a key back. Gaff, Nic Nat and Sheppard come in for who? Depth will get us to the stage.
 

DontArgue4

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I think West Coast will win the 2019 flag and not necessarily for the reasons people think. As an interstate club ladder position will be the key for us headed into finals as we cant be travelling week after week away. I think we now have 32 players who can rotate through a best 22 including coverage on every line and so we will win enough to slot top four.

Willy Rioli enters his second year with a seemingly open ended ceiling, former good average player Sheed has now played 7 straight games like peak Judd - has thrashed all his PB time trials and is looking big through his upper torso could go next level. Vardy is the version Geelong dreamed of before injuries derailed him, Darling is looking like a monster. Schofield might get squeezed out of our best 22 or win an AA as a key back. Gaff, Nic Nat and Sheppard come in for who? Depth will get us to the stage.
:tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy: get your hand off it, peak Judd hahaha

Also, lol at schofield being pushed out of your best 22 despite him being an AA chance. Just, no.
 

kaiserchief13

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:tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy: get your hand off it, peak Judd hahaha

Also, lol at schofield being pushed out of your best 22 despite him being an AA chance. Just, no.
He destroyed De Gooey in the grand final

Yeah and unfair on Judd, Sheed is a much better kick
 
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Tigers finished 2 games and percentage clear on top at the end of the home and away 2018 add into that the acquisition of Lynch and presumably a desire to avenge last years preliminary final implosion and they should be in it up to their eyeballs

Prior to disastrous injury pre season would have said dockers a smokey for the eight not so sure know . Lions for me to make the eight
 
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Tigers finished 2 games and percentage clear on top at the end of the home and away 2018 add into that the acquisition of Lynch and presumably a desire to avenge last years preliminary final implosion and they should be in it up to their eyeballs

Prior to disastrous injury pre season would have said dockers a smokey for the eight not so sure know . Lions for me to make the eight
Question is if their knock on at all cost frantic game style has a third year in it or has it’s use by date expired?
 

rogiebear93

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Premiers:
Adelaide. Most even team all around in my opinion, fit and have added genuine young talent from trading away Lever and now McGovern who I don't believe they'll miss too much. Brodie Smith returning, Brad Crouch finally fit again and another year of development for Darcy Fogarty puts them in good stead. 2018 an aberration.
Surprise Finals Miss:
Sydney. Can see Buddy potentially missing games Lebron style in order to keep himself fresh, and some substantial changes over the off season should see them drop off for a year. My double-up prediction is that if they do miss 2019 it's in the hopes that Buddy is cherry ripe for 2020 and in that case they will definitely be back in contention.
Surprise Finals Appearance:
Brisbane. Neale and Lyons add a hard and experienced edge to a midfield unit that is already ripe with young talent. Harris Andrews will have an AA calibre year. McLuggage and Berry to continue to take steps forward in the middle and will surprise a few on the way to a top 8 berth. With the help of Hodge in his final season I'd even back them in to win an EF before bowing out in the semis.
 
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Question is if their knock on at all cost frantic game style has a third year in it or has it’s use by date expired?
If you don't improve you are going backwards. Think lynch makes them a 2 goal a game better side . Going on last years numbers to beat Richmond this year you are going to have to kick just shy of eighteen goals a game . Only one side capable of doing that on a regular basis is Melbourne
 
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