Preview 2019 Round 22 - Richmond vs West Coast, Sunday 18th of August @ MCG, 1:10pm

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thedreamisreal

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Sep 27, 2017
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History at the MCG
For an entire decade, from 2008 through 2017, West Coast had won just 5 of 23 encounters at The MCG (three 12-goal-ave wins over Melbourne, a 7-point win over Carlton, and The Tigs’ R12 ’15 loss).

Whilst WC was struggling to shake their MCG hoodoo; Richmond was embarking on an unparalleled period of dominance at the same venue. Since R1 ‘17, Richmond has won 36 of 41 matches at The ‘G. This record includes a streak of 22 consecutive wins which eclipsed the 62-year-old VFL/AFL record previously held by Melbourne.

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Consecutive Wins at the MCG
However, West Coast appear to have turned a corner in this regard, since R1 ’18 they haven’t dropped a game. Like many of the interstate premiers that came before them; they now travel to the home of footy sitting equal first for all-time consecutive wins at The MCG for an interstate side.

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Consecutive Wins at the MCG (Interstate Teams Only)​

In other words – this weekend West Coast are playing for the title of best non-Victorian MCG performer of all time. To win the title, they must defeat the best Victorian performer of all time in Richmond.

Recent Form
Any-and-all spots in the Top 4 are currently up for grabs by any-and-all of the four teams sitting within it (Geel, Bris, WC, Rich). Much has been made of form lines since the bye and how these sides are timing their run into finals. For those following along at home; Geelong (LWLWLWLW) has struggled v. some average opposition and Brisbane (WWWWWWWW) has been red-hot, winning every game by an average of 38 points (two of those v Top 8 sides).

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West Coast have maintained decent pre-bye form vs. average opposition, winning by an average of 32 points and dropping one game by a point to the only Top 8 side faced (Collingwood at home).

Having recovered from a horrific run of injuries before the bye, Richmond have been white-hot, winning every game by a 40-point average. Convincingly beating fellow Top 4 contenders in GWS and Collingwood, Top 8 side Port and recent scraps over Melbourne and Carlton.

The Importance of this Game
The points for/against differential between our two teams is astounding this late in a season. A 30-point win Richmond’s way would mean a single (one) point away/for differential either way, and we’d sit less than 0.0001% above WC on the ladder. Should we lose however, Collingwood and GWS are hot on our heals and will no doubt snap up our Top 4 spot before the season’s out. We absolutely must win this game to consolidate our second chance in the finals.

Last Time We Met
R9 ’18, WC (20.10.130) def. Rich (12.11.83) @ Optus Stadium

West Coast had us on the ropes from the outset and recorded an emphatic eighth win on their path to 10-straight (their best run since 1996).

After quarter time, The Tigs applied their trademark pressure and were able to wrestle back a 22-point deficit, entering the main break with scores level.

In the second half, however, everything went West Coast’s way. Hurn and McGovern were impassable in defence and the home side’s precise kicking game cut Richmond to pieces.

Jack Darling continued his dominant run as WC’s KPF and arguably the best performing player in the competition, with a career-high 6 goals and 7 contested marks.

The sell-out home crowd willed The Eagles (and the umpires) on, kicking 13 goals to 6 in the second half and running out 47-point winners, overtaking Richmond atop the ladder.

Riewoldt (5 goals, 4 contested marks) was Richmond’s best, with Nankervis putting forward a courageous performance versus the Naitanui/Lycett double-team. Martin (17 contested pos, 8 SI’s and 8 clearances) was also impressive but mostly unassisted in the middle.

Last Weeks’ Teams
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BEST
Richmond:
1) Graham, 2) Prestia, 3) Vlastuin, 4) Edwards, 5) Ross
West Coast: 1) Darling, 2) Rioli, 3) Yeo, 4) Shuey, 5) Allen

INJURIES
Richmond:
Nil
West Coast: Nil

POTENTIAL CHANGES
Richmond –
IN: Martin, Soldo, OUT: Bolton (Omitted), Chol (Omitted)
West Coast – IN: Cameron, OUT: Petruccelle (Omitted)

How the Game’s Won
Richmond are the undisputed best at what they do; their game relies on intercepts, high tackle differentials and repeated inside 50’s. Through relentless pressure, they force teams to make mistakes and turn it over to a lighting fast run and spread.

West Coast’s game is the polar opposite and they’re also the best at what they do. Their game relies on frequent and accurate kicking, a low disposal/scoring ratio, they rarely turn it over and they rarely get tackled.

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Def v. Fwd – Grimes v. Ryan & Rioli

Once the ball’s I50, West Coast perform very similar to us – if Darling and Kennedy aren’t clunking marks, their smalls are going to work and creating opportunities from thin air. Once they’re in, they usually score. Grimes is in All-Australian form and we’ve seen him do a number on talls and smalls alike, time and time again.

Midfield – Graham v. Shuey

The Eagles are unstoppable on the outside, so we need to deny them first use of the ball. Shuey is their best clearance player and Graham is the pressure machine that will bring him down.

Fwd v. Def – Lynch v. McGovern

McGovern and Hurn’s intercept and rebound 50 numbers are something to behold – if you thought Vlasy and Houli’s numbers were good, they pale in comparison. McGovern’s contested marking numbers are among the best in the competition, second only to Tom Lynch.

At the end of Round 21, the punters have Richmond and WC as equal flag favourites, form-wise the two sides are also on par. This is a great opportunity to see how our game stacks up against the reigning premiers, but it’s also a must win for both teams.

Weather
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Milestones
Broad (50 games played)

Verdict
The Bookies – Richmond by 8
Squiggle.com.au – Richmond by 15
My Heart – Richmond by 30
My Head – Richmond by 29

C'mon Tigers!
 
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Lsta062

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Awesome preview!

Boy oh boy is this a big game and I am looking forward to it. Finals technically starts for us and Brisbane this round due to the difficult opponents we face.

Our forward line needs to be better than what it was with the amount of inside 50s we had. Seems that West Coast has the same issue yesterday too though.

Also, I really hope that Hardwick swaps Baker and Stack. Baker is better as a forward and Stack is better in our half back.

Go Tigers!
 

TheBeardedEagle

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Aug 31, 2015
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Great review. Seriously great stuff

I've been looking forward to what should have been the Grand Final last year. Time has passed and what was then is very different to what is now. You guys are in top form and it's going to be a ball tearer if we both bring our A-Game.

I don't know why the AFL made us wait so long to have this game I would have thought we would have played each other twice this season with us both finishing last year in the top 2 in the Home and Away and top 3 in the finals.

I seriously think the winner of this game is going to be in the GF quite potentially both of us. We both not only need a win, but we need to score highly and defend each goal to protect our own respective %, which is bound to decide home final(s) with a second chance. It's also highly plausible that we'll be replaying each other during the finals so getting the better of each other is going to be a huge psychological advantage.

We both have some current champions out of the game which no-one likes to see. Your Rance and Higgins and our Nic-Nat are going to be sidelined but I'm sure they will be assisting with key positioning strategies to their respective coaches and replacements. Believe it or not I want both Cotchin and Dusty fit and ready. We want to play your best available team (You've kept us waiting over 11 months for this)

In saying that we both have some massive guns and Dusty in form scares any team. While we have defence ready with Hutch and or Yeo, you can never be certain anyone can contain one of the best players in the the competition so hence having Yeo ready to be pulled from offence to defence if Dusty is cutting thru Hutch (who only returned yesterday from injury).

I'm not going to lie I back our forwards, backs and mids who are ready to play and even our #2 ruckman is playing some of his best footy of his life.

I want this game to be a serious example of elite AFL at its best and I want us both to play the game of the season.

I'm betting eagles but I'm putting a safety bet on a draw, which none of us want leading into the finals but it makes sense with the two teams that bookies have pegged as most likely to win the GF.

I Seriously can't wait for this!
 
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harrythetiger

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Great review. Seriously great stuff

I've been looking forward to what should have been the Grand Final last year. Time has passed and what was then is very different to what is now. You guys are in top form and it's going to be a ball tearer if we both bring our A-Game.

I don't know why the AFL made us wait so long to have this game I would have thought we would have played each other twice this season with us both finishing last year in the top 2 in the Home and Away and top 3 in the finals.

I seriously think the winner of this game is going to be in the GF quite potentially both of us. We both not only need a win, but we need to score highly and defend each goal to protect our own respective %, which is bound to decide home final(s) with a second chance. It's also highly plausible that we'll be replaying each other during the finals so getting the better of each other is going to be a huge psychological advantage.

We both have some current champions out of the game which no-one likes to see. Your Rance and Higgins and our Nic-Nat are going to be sidelined but I'm sure they will be assisting with key positioning strategies to their respective coaches and replacements. Believe it or not I want both Cotchin and Dusty fit and ready. We want to play your best available team (You've kept us waiting over 11 months for this)

In saying that we both have some massive guns and Dusty in form scares any team. While we have defence ready with Hutch and or Yeo, you can never be certain anyone can contain one of the best players in the the competition so hence having Yeo ready to be pulled from offence to defence if Dusty is cutting thru Hutch (who only returned yesterday from injury).

I'm not going to lie I back our forwards, backs and mids who are ready to play and even our #2 ruckman is playing some of his best footy of his life.

I want this game to be a serious example of elite AFL at it's best and I want us both to play the game of the season.

I'm betting eagles but I'm putting a safety bet on a draw, which none of us want leading into the finals but it makes sense with the two teams that bookies have pegged as most likely to win the GF.

I Seriously can't wait for this!
Agree fully.
In particular I can't wait to see how we go against your forward line. It is IMO the best in the competition and the true test of how our defence will hold up without Rance.
 

Michaels

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brilliant preview thedreamisreal , love all the stats and figures!

this might seem biased but have the best preview writers on the site I reckon!


Huge game, this game will tell both sides a lot about where they are at.

From an overall viewpoint I still think the Eagles are the team to be for the Premiership.

They are so strong across all lines.


Darling and Kennedy are in great form and their smalls are showing to be as good if not better than ours.


For me this game will be detemined by how hard our midfield want to work. If we slack off and let them get easy use they will cut us up and give our defenders no chance.

We must negate McGoverns intercepting as well. make him accountable and don't just blaze away to his area if he is the spare player.


should be a great contest!
 

TheBeardedEagle

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We must negate McGoverns intercepting as well. make him accountable and don't just blaze away to his area if he is the spare player.
You think his intercept marking is impressive and want to distract him? Just take a Corona and or a Cheeseburger onto the field. He will take you out mid-air to get his hands on one of those!
 

thedreamisreal

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You think his intercept marking is impressive and want to distract him? Just take a Corona and or a Cheeseburger onto the field. He will take you out mid-air to get his hands on one of those!
Don't you mean a delicious Hungry Jacks Whopper (TM)?

Jetta and Rioli will have a piece of that too!
 

tony__montana

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Jan 25, 2018
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This is the one Ive been waiting for - ridiculous we've had to wait till the second last round to get a crack at the premiers. WCE are an incredibly well balanced football side structurally. Looking fwd to seeing how our defence goes against what i think is the best fwd line in the comp. Our pressure will need to be at high intensity, cant let them hit up targets all day like they did in Perth last year - theyre so efficient they make teams pay when they get on top.
 

joelsyt

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Mar 11, 2016
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Awesome preview!

Cannot wait for this round of football.

Two potential grand final previews with Brisbane v Geelong and then Us v WCE.

Going to be brilliant to watch!

West Coast worry me, ever since the WA government did what other interstate government’s should have done (built a mini MCG for their AFL teams) WCE have had no fear of the G.

I actually think both teams are fairly evenly matched, at their best.

The two best forward lines in the comp, when going, the two best back lines in the comp, they have us in the midfield though I think.

Hopefully Cotch (if fit), Dusty (if fit), Ross, Graham, Prestia, Lambert and Sheds can at least match them in there this weekend.
 

SloppyJoe

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Really good preview. Usually oppo previews get a lot of the other team's info wrong, but you are spot on with almost everything (except your MCG streak ended in the PF round, not QF). You're probably right with that one change to our side. We need a player like Cameron against the Tiges.

On paper it's damn near game of the year; hopefully it delivers. No rain dancing!
 

roacheee

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Aug 25, 2015
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Really good preview. Usually oppo previews get a lot of the other team's info wrong, but you are spot on with almost everything (except your MCG streak ended in the PF round, not QF). You're probably right with that one change to our side. We need a player like Cameron against the Tiges.

On paper it's damn near game of the year; hopefully it delivers. No rain dancing!
It is a winning streak...not a losing streak...so the last win is where it ended
 
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