Prediction 2019 Starting 22

jackess

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My concern with NRobbo would be that he doesn't quite have the athleticism to deal with Darling - last year he was great on medium forwards like Breust, but when he had to go onto De Goey against Collingwood he couldn't really keep up. Darling isn't as explosive as De Goey but he is extremely physical and quick on the lead.

As an aside I hope we recontract NRobbo even if he plays more NEAFL this year - he has improved a lot and is one of our few natural defenders, even if he doesn't have the most attacking flair.
Yeah not the best option but without Dizzy we're struggling. Even Dizzy probably isn't strong enough.

Hopefully if Kennedy is out whoever plays on Darling can get some help.
 

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a mayes ing

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Yeah not the best option but without Dizzy we're struggling. Even Dizzy probably isn't strong enough.

Hopefully if Kennedy is out whoever plays on Darling can get some help.
Can't see Dizzy being ready. How match fit would he be to go from injury straight into seniors. Plus Lynch did his PCL last year at GC and is still 50/50 for round 1. You would think there would have t be more recorvery time
 

buttermuffs

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Can't see Dizzy being ready. How match fit would he be to go from injury straight into seniors. Plus Lynch did his PCL last year at GC and is still 50/50 for round 1. You would think there would have t be more recorvery time
Lynch’s knees have a high chance of just being absolutely ****** generally.
 

marooned

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I wasn't impressed with him defensively last year. Wouldn't want him on Darling and I'm not sure Andrews is mobile enough to go with Darling.



I think Lester will be the backup backman unless we need someone quicker or taller than him. He's now a competent backmen but he just can't play on the really tall forwards or the really quick forwards.

NRobbo might have been an option for Darling if he wasn't injured or out of form.
So Lester can only play on short/ slow forwards.Plenty of them playing in the afl.
 

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jackess

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So who takes Oscar Allen? And Darling?


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Lester will likely have to play on one of those 2 if Gardiner is not fit. Hopefully Gardiner/Walker/Andrews can matchup on Darling/Allen or Kennedy/the resting ruckman and Lester probably doesn't play.
 
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There has been quite a few comments against the 3 tall forward line but I believe we should persist with this setup. 3 talls straightens up our game and assists so much in our transition from HB to FF. Guys like Witho, Berry, McL, Bailey, Matho etc are very young and don't have the football nous/experience yet to find that short hole in a defensive zone. Guys like Dizzy, Walker, Robinson etc aren't offensive geniuses; their first instinct is to bomb it long down the line. Having 3 tall forwards gives us a predictable (which is important for a young team) but successful method of transferring the football out of FB.

Its always the same rebound strategy - Walker/HA spoils/marks the ball at FF at either pocket. Rich/Hodge/Witho/Gardiner runs to the other pocket. At HB Martin/OMac is down the line as a bailout down the original/skinny side of the ground. One of the 3 talls (usually McStay or Hipwood) runs across or up the ground and is on the lead at HB for when the switch occurs. Now two plays usually result - either a clearing kick down the line to the ruck or a transfer across the goalface either via hands or a kick to Rich/Witho who roosts it long to the leading forward on the opposite wing. There is then overlap run from Rich/Witho/Bailey/Lewy. The fat side winger runs across is now an option on the 45 in the middle. The skinny side winger runs up the line to act as a short option downfield. One tall forward/resting Martin + one small forward remains down the line st HF as a long option and the third tall (Hipwood/Mcstay) runs into the forward pocket/top of the square - dragging the defender. This means we can transition via hands through the midfield or to 50-50 contests via foot to a wide open forward line.

If the transition slows down then you still have two talls at HB and two talls at HF to kick to which simplifies the play and means we can gain territory down to HF without risking a defensive intercepting mark/turnover from the oppo at our HF line resulting in a quick rebound 50 (eg the McGovern rebound from the grandfinal). Modern defense is centred around intercepting marks and rebound 50s. Having 3 200cm+ forwards and a ruckman means we will always have a contest at a bailout kick meaning more stoppages down the line. Similarly having 2 tall forwards jumping may appear congested forward line may look terrible on TV but it does ensure we get a forward pocket stoppage which lets Charlie/Zorko/Rayner/McCarthy etc exploit our ruck domination and generate from the stoppage.

I think one of the key improvements in our defense has been having this 3 tall forward setup ensuring our bailout kicks go to ground. I remember 2016/2017 seeing Hipwood or McStay getting double teamed at HB resulting in multiple turnovers and repeat i50s for the oppo. HA/Walker would do well to repeal 2-3 entries and then finally succumb on the 4th. I was always scared when watching us trying to get out of our backline. Now I am always confident that we can get the ball to at least midfield whenever we repel an attack.

McStay, Hipwood and OMac should be automatic locks. OMac needs to be in the team as he is the only capable ruck forward we have. OMac at F50 stoppage lets us play Martin at HF to take that intercept mark from the quick clearance. It also means we can play HA in the middle of the ground so he can either run up off his man and intercept or run back to the square from a defensive clearance out of our F50. I dont know how we will cope if OMac gets injured. I dont know if Archie can play as a ruck forward and Ballenden needs a few more years in the gym. I guess in that case we'd either hope Adams gets up and we can play either him or HA as the third tall or maybe rely on Skinner.

Edit: another argument for the 3 tall forward line is the number of times Hipwood as been isolated one on one. In 2017 Hipwood would always face a 2 on 1 when McStay would get up the field to receive the ball. This would mean a forward half turnover in our F50 every time the ball would come in quick. Having OMac there means the guy playing on our small cant double team. This means the ball is more likely to be marked by our team or hit the ground which plays into the hands of Hipwoods strengths and also our small forwards.
 
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LongLion

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There has been quite a few comments against the 3 tall forward line but I believe we should persist with this setup. 3 talls straightens up our game and assists so much in our transition from HB to FF. Guys like Witho, Berry, McL, Bailey, Matho etc are very young and don't have the football nous/experience yet to find that short hole in a defensive zone. Guys like Dizzy, Walker, Robinson etc aren't offensive geniuses; their first instinct is to bomb it long down the line. Having 3 tall forwards gives us a predictable (which is important for a young team) but successful method of transferring the football out of FB.

Its always the same rebound strategy - Walker/HA spoils/marks the ball at FF at either pocket. Rich/Hodge/Witho/Gardiner runs to the other pocket. At HB Martin/OMac is down the line as a bailout down the original/skinny side of the ground. One of the 3 talls (usually McStay or Hipwood) runs across or up the ground and is on the lead at HB for when the switch occurs. Now two plays usually result - either a clearing kick down the line to the ruck or a transfer across the goalface either via hands or a kick to Rich/Witho who roosts it long to the leading forward on the opposite wing. There is then overlap run from Rich/Witho/Bailey/Lewy. The fat side winger runs across is now an option on the 45 in the middle. The skinny side winger runs up the line to act as a short option downfield. One tall forward/resting Martin + one small forward remains down the line st HF as a long option and the third tall (Hipwood/Mcstay) runs into the forward pocket/top of the square - dragging the defender. This means we can transition via hands through the midfield or to 50-50 contests via foot to a wide open forward line.

If the transition slows down then you still have two talls at HB and two talls at HF to kick to which simplifies the play and means we can gain territory down to HF without risking a defensive intercepting mark/turnover from the oppo at our HF line resulting in a quick rebound 50 (eg the McGovern rebound from the grandfinal). Modern defense is centred around intercepting marks and rebound 50s. Having 3 200cm+ forwards and a ruckman means we will always have a contest at a bailout kick meaning more stoppages down the line. Similarly having 2 tall forwards jumping may appear congested forward line may look terrible on TV but it does ensure we get a forward pocket stoppage which lets Charlie/Zorko/Rayner/McCarthy etc exploit our ruck domination and generate from the stoppage.

I think one of the key improvements in our defense has been having this 3 tall forward setup ensuring our bailout kicks go to ground. I remember 2016/2017 seeing Hipwood or McStay getting double teamed at HB resulting in multiple turnovers and repeat i50s for the oppo. HA/Walker would do well to repeal 2-3 entries and then finally succumb on the 4th. I was always scared when watching us trying to get out of our backline. Now I am always confident that we can get the ball to at least midfield whenever we repel an attack.

McStay, Hipwood and OMac should be automatic locks. OMac needs to be in the team as he is the only capable ruck forward we have. OMac at F50 stoppage lets us play Martin at HF to take that intercept mark from the quick clearance. It also means we can play HA in the middle of the ground so he can either run up off his man and intercept or run back to the square from a defensive clearance out of our F50. I dont know how we will cope if OMac gets injured. I dont know if Archie can play as a ruck forward and Ballenden needs a few more years in the gym. I guess in that case we'd either hope Adams gets up and we can play either him or HA as the third tall or maybe rely on Skinner.

Edit: another argument for the 3 tall forward line is the number of times Hipwood as been isolated one on one. In 2017 Hipwood would always face a 2 on 1 when McStay would get up the field to receive the ball. This would mean a forward half turnover in our F50 every time the ball would come in quick. Having OMac there means the guy playing on our small cant double team. This means the ball is more likely to be marked by our team or hit the ground which plays into the hands of Hipwoods strengths and also our small forwards.
I'm a strong believer in the 3 talls up forward. Hopefully their synergy together will improve as time goes on. Interesting that Fages has said that the Big O is the best true tap ruckman we have so having him in the forward line is a bonus plus his backup to Stef in the centre when needed.
 

davemc_lions

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3 talls work for us as Hipwood is so good at ground level crumbing. So even though he 200+ he can work down at his ankles.
McStay is not bad as well down low as well.
I have no problems with 3 talls Hipwood/McStay/Big O and Raynor/Cameron/McCarthy as forwards with 1-2 rotating through the middle with Zorko/Berry/McCluggage.

Down back is where i think we have a problem if we play Andrews, Walker and Dizzy.
Hodge, Witho and Rich are not quick to break the lines we counting on Witho/Rich feet not run and carry
Like someone like Christensen or Bailey to play down back.. Although who do you remove? Or have them running wing/HB
Personally I play Rich up the ground have him last kick into forward line to break the zone. Although he looks a lock backline
 

wantok

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Bailey has played very well in the backline and shows great promise as an attacking HBF. He uses the ball very well and chooses good options. He's a lock for Round I. I strongly doubt Dizzy will play so the Eagles talls, Allen and Darling will be covered by Andrews and Walker, Rioli and Ryan are speedsters so Bailey gets one of those, Rich will go to Venables. Hodgey will need to do the job he did against Melbourne's Harmes on Ryan and out position him. Wthers gets the resting Ruckman Vardy to Run off. Will be a problem if the ball is coming in long and high. Midfield pressure will need to be spot on. If it doesnt work out Mcstay will need to go to defence and the forward spot taken by a smaller player. Still leaves Hippy, Oscar and Rayner as marking options up forward.

HF: Rioli Darling Venables
FF: Vardy Kennedy/O. Allen Ryan
 
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hey guys sorry for intruding...

just on andrews, not sure why he was trialed at CHF as one of the best KPD in the comp... but anyways, do you see this experiment continuing in the early rounds of the season? and when adams is back and ready does that change anything?
 

LongLion

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hey guys sorry for intruding...

just on andrews, not sure why he was trialed at CHF as one of the best KPD in the comp... but anyways, do you see this experiment continuing in the early rounds of the season? and when adams is back and ready does that change anything?
I can't see it happening early & if Adams plays I suspect it will be more likely him to pinch hit in the forward line when required.
 
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