List Mgmt. 2019 Trade Thread

[StCicatriz]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

There's a lot of pressure on that poor kid because of that deal.

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

 

[TheJackal]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

Even if he ends up a very good player it still should cost him his job. That trade is negligent af.

 

[TheJackal]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

Carlton ranked Stocker as a top five or six pick in that draft. So in their eyes they grabbed their pick six another teens pick for a future pick which their inflated egos thought would land around pick 10. That was their thought process, the rest of the world laughed...

 

[triggering bro]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

I put it down to typical Carlton arrogance. Thought they got a bargain & thought they would finish much higher this year.

 

[bird_man]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

It was a a mixture of SOS believing they were on the improve and the fact they rated Stocker really highly. I don't think there would have been too many recruiters that had Stocker as high as the Blues.

 

[Mikka84]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

Or pick 1 ends up a dud...

 

[ScrappyDo]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

I've zero doubt that this was Adelaide's price for releasing McLovin from his contract. The Scum were always going to have pick 1 or 2 this year and could have done a much more favorable pick swap with many other clubs, but no, they traded with the Crows for a kid not even in the top 10 conversation. Pigs Arse is the phrase that comes to mind..

 

[triggering bro]

Or pick 1 ends up a dud...

Matt Rowell about as bulletproof a pick as you can get. Poor Carlton. Not.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

It was a a mixture of SOS believing they were on the improve and the fact they rated Stocker really highly. I don't think there would have been too many recruiters that had Stocker as high as the Blues.

Little bit more to it potentially. Yes they rated Stocker towards the top end of last years draft, and yes the considered this years crop inferior at the pointy end (no idea if that is a good assessment or not at this stage).

But they have also had trouble putting together deals for mature talent over the last few years. Last year they feel they were caught in no mans land trying to put together a deal for Shiel largely because they considered pick 1 too valuable to part with. The logic (whether you agree with it or not) is that they have picked enough young top end kids (1-3), and that a pick between 6-14 would be better currency to trade for a mature player.

So rather than pick 1 (Walsh) and a 2019 pick 1-4 (say Anderson), they preferred Walsh, Stocker (who they rated highly) AND another mature body between 23-28. So the logic goes SOS will attempt to on-trade Adelaide's first for someone like Dunkley, J. Martin, Blakely or Z. Jones.

To be clear, I absolutely don't agree with that strategy, and I think they have overrated their list massively (when you look at their really unhealthy 2018 B+F results, I have no idea where they thought the improvement was coming from). But that is the thought process as I understand it.

Pretty sure they are fu**ed whatever they do so lets all just sit back and enjoy the laughs!

 

[bird_man]

Little bit more to it potentially. Yes they rated Stocker towards the top end of last years draft, and yes the considered this years crop inferior at the pointy end (no idea if that is a good assessment or not at this stage).

But they have also had trouble putting together deals for mature talent over the last few years. Last year they feel they were caught in no mans land trying to put together a deal for Shiel largely because they considered pick 1 too valuable to part with. The logic (whether you agree with it or not) is that they have picked enough young top end kids (1-3), and that a pick between 6-14 would be better currency to trade for a mature player.

So rather than pick 1 (Walsh) and a 2019 pick 1-4 (say Anderson), they preferred Walsh, Stocker (who they rated highly) AND another mature body between 23-28. So the logic goes SOS will attempt to on-trade Adelaide's first for someone like Dunkley, J. Martin, Blakely or Z. Jones.

To be clear, I absolutely don't agree with that strategy, and I think they have overrated their list massively (when you look at their really unhealthy 2018 B+F results, I have no idea where they thought the improvement was coming from). But that is the thought process as I understand it.

Pretty sure they are fu**ed whatever they do so lets all just sit back and enjoy the laughs!

Not sure if that is true, but if it is, it makes it even stranger. Trading pick one to make it easier to trade in an average mature player. Normally if you get those types of players to agree to come to your club, it's pretty easy to find a way to get the deal done.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

Remember the media the next day: “oh brilliant and bold Carlton, backing themselves in”.

I remember hearing it while watching the draft and just stopping dead, mouth ajar, “that can’t be right”.

 

[Connorn99]

We were gonna do the same deal as Adelaide to get Collier-Dawkins weren't we?

 

[bergholt]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

I think it's cohort theory. They're trying to get a group of good players all around the same age because that's generally how flags are won. The group is basically from Docherty down:

25: Docherty (92 games)
24: Plowman (81), McGovern (55), Cripps (89)
23: Gibbons (8), Lang (55)
22: Garlett (30), Marchbank (41), C Curnow (52), Kennedy (31)
21: Weitering (64), J Silvagni (47), McKay (23), Setterfield (7), Petrevski-Seton (50), Polson (16)
20: Fisher (42), Williamson (17)
19: O'Brien (23), Dow (28), Stocker (0)
18: Walsh (8)

If they swap Stocker for a guy drafted this year who's currently 17, maybe it stretches out the age range a bit too much. (Though surely if they'd thought it would actually be pick one they still would have kept it.)

The stats basically show that if you use your first to fourth round picks each year, you'll get one good player a year on average. Do that for ten years and you've still only got ten good players, and the oldest are 28 at that point. So obviously you've got to do something else, and trading for picks that give you more shots sooner is a reasonable strategy if you don't get reamed as they did.

I actually don't mind their list. It's no worse than ours. On that list above they've got one more genuine star than we do (Cripps) and an A-grader (Docherty). A guaranteed future A-grader in Walsh. In the same age range we've got no stars, no A-graders or guaranteed future A-graders.

And just like us a bunch of guys just hitting the number of games and age where they could take the next step: Curnow, SPS, Weitering, Silvagni, Fisher; probably also McKay, Kennedy, Marchbank, almost Dow and O'Brien. They won't all be busts and at least 3 of those show A-grade potential (Curnow, McKay, Dow).

So while their performances aren't great right now, I don't think they're much worse off than is. I'd expect to see them win a few games in the second half of the year this year - hopefully they don't start against us - and add a real coach next year (presumably Ratts) and they could jump to midtable pretty quickly.

 

[bird_man]

We were gonna do the same deal as Adelaide to get Collier-Dawkins weren't we?

Yeah pretty much.

 

[TheEnsign]

So while their performances aren't great right now, I don't think they're much worse off than is. I'd expect to see them win a few games in the second half of the year this year - hopefully they don't start against us - and add a real coach next year (presumably Ratts) and they could jump to midtable pretty quickly.

I don't disagree with your analysis re: the list - but do you think Ratts would go back?

 

[sunny3193]

Currently it’s pick 19 & 16 for pick 1. Ouch. Might cost SOS his job unless Stocker ends up a gun mid.

Here’s some interesting tidbits about Stocker.
Didn’t kick a ball in anger till he was ten.
Grew up in Hong Kong and China.
Sandringham kid.
Family follows St Kilda.
Were hoping he’d be drafted by us.

 

[Jughead77]

can anyone explain to me why carlton did that deal. it's horrendous. like i can't see the thinking behind it. even if they forecast ending 10th i still don't understand it given the risk.

If you want a good laugh head over to the blues pick swap thread. The level of verbal gymnastics is truly breathtaking.

When the trade was first done it was, 'Great deal SOS, it wont be any worse than a pick 5/6 for pick 9/10 and Stocker.'

Then when the crows started the year slowly and the blues seemed somewhat competent, 'Sos does it again. We may get pick 4 from the crows for our 8-10 + Stocker.'

Then as their losses started piling up and the crows kept winning its now, 'Hey, pick 1 or 2 doesn't mean anything. We dont need Rowell or Anderson. That Adelaide pick we get in return(currently pick 16) was always going to be used on a mature player this year.(ignoring the fact that a higher pick is better currency to get a better mature player) In any case, Stocker is a gun.'

There are pages and pages on Stocker and how no matter what the outcome they got a steal because they valued him at pick 6. When ppl point out that obv no one else rated him that highly because he lasted till pick 19, my god their justifications, you just have to see for yourself.

There's probably some delusion involved, but i reckon the vast majority of it is sheer arrogance and a steadfast refusal to acknowledge that golden boy Sos could have made a mistake. If they finish bottom and crows win the flag, they wont even concede that crows are in front of the trade at that moment. 'If you want to judge the trade properly, wait a decade till Stocker gets to 200 games. He could have 2 flags by then. You wont say Blues lost the trade then!'

There's a higher chance of Trump admiting wrong doing than any of those guys saying they lost. That level of pretentiousness and hubris i remember as a schoolboy in the 90s is still very much alive. I was starting to feel sorry for them and their many years of pain. Lol. That lasted a micro second, thanks to the constant reminders of the massive flogs they are. Long may they suck.

 

[bergholt]

I don't disagree with your analysis re: the list - but do you think Ratts would go back?

NFI, but he does seem the obvious candidate, along with Caracella and presumably a couple of others I can't remember right now.

 

[goodie23]

If you want a good laugh head over to the blues pick swap thread.


If you want a good laugh head over to the blues pick swap thread. The level of verbal gymnastics is truly breathtaking.

When the trade was first done it was, 'Great deal SOS, it wont be any worse than a pick 5/6 for pick 9/10 and Stocker.'

Then when the crows started the year slowly and the blues seemed somewhat competent, 'Sos does it again. We may get pick 4 from the crows for our 8-10 + Stocker.'

Then as their losses started piling up and the crows kept winning its now, 'Hey, pick 1 or 2 doesn't mean anything. We dont need Rowell or Anderson. That Adelaide pick we get in return(currently pick 16) was always going to be used on a mature player this year.(ignoring the fact that a higher pick is better currency to get a better mature player) In any case, Stocker is a gun.'

There are pages and pages on Stocker and how no matter what the outcome they got a steal because they valued him at pick 6. When ppl point out that obv no one else rated him that highly because he lasted till pick 19, my god their justifications, you just have to see for yourself.

There's probably some delusion involved, but i reckon the vast majority of it is sheer arrogance and a steadfast refusal to acknowledge that golden boy Sos could have made a mistake. If they finish bottom and crows win the flag, they wont even concede that crows are in front of the trade at that moment. 'If you want to judge the trade properly, wait a decade till Stocker gets to 200 games. He could have 2 flags by then. You wont say Blues lost the trade then!'

There's a higher chance of Trump admiting wrong doing than any of those guys saying they lost. That level of pretentiousness and hubris i remember as a schoolboy in the 90s is still very much alive. I was starting to feel sorry for them and their many years of pain. Lol. That lasted a micro second, thanks to the constant reminders of the massive flogs they are. Long may they suck.

This from the club that rated Blaine Boekhurst ahead of De Goey, Lever, Steele, Touk Miller and many more on the strength of trading for Kristian Jacksh and Liam Jones...

 

[gringo2011]

This from the club that rated Blaine Boekhurst ahead of De Goey, Lever, Steele, Touk Miller and many more on the strength of trading for Kristian Jacksh and Liam Jones...

I refuse to laugh at others recruiting when ours looks ordinary as well. Sounds like we did what they did and tried to trade with Adelaide, we tried to get Boyd on a huge deal and he rejected us, we were the same laughing at a faltering Hawks when it looked like they would give us a top 4 pick, then pretended we didn't care when they improved etc. Carlton have some good kids and if they get a decent coach at some point the could jump us. They have some kids that look very good.

Liam Jones actually looks like an excellent defender these days as well. He cost them pick 46 and some wanted him in the AA conversation last year when he had a bit of a run of form.

 

[Sab22]

If Steven leaves, I'm trading our first + whatever we get for Steven to Adelaide for that #1.

Matt Rowell is your Bont, Cripps day one mids

 

[VDS66]

If Steven leaves, I'm trading our first + whatever we get for Steven to Adelaide for that #1.

Matt Rowell is your Bont, Cripps day one mids

If Steven leaves, he won't be going to another club...

 

[St Muir]

If Steven leaves, he won't be going to another club...

Really hope you’re wrong about this VDS. Losing our best player for nothing, following on from Paddy, Roberton and Stevens is really crappy luck.
Are you working off a hunch or have you heard something?

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Really hope you’re wrong about this VDS. Losing our best player for nothing, following on from Paddy, Roberton and Stevens is really crappy luck.
Are you working off a hunch or have you heard something?

If that happens we need a priority pick purely for being so jinxed.
Even found myself thinking about jinx cleansing when the boys were washing themselves in smoke from the smoking ceremony.

 

[VDS66]

Really hope you’re wrong about this VDS. Losing our best player for nothing, following on from Paddy, Roberton and Stevens is really crappy luck.
Are you working off a hunch or have you heard something?

Both.

I heard he's not well. So can't see how swapping clubs will help him.

As you know, beating this stuff isn't as simple as you think.