Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 28, 2015
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
I haven’t fully thought it through, but my concern with the “new” rule of clubs being allowed to trade picks while there is a bid in the system, further dilutes the available draft pool.I agree in general but want to dig in to one specific angle...
Draft value and figuring out what we got the equivalent in points doesn't really work if you're factoring in what potential bids might shift the pick around. In that scenario either way we'd get at least the 19th best player we have available to us. Whether that's pick 19 or pick 25 (due to bidding) doesn't matter - bidding doesn't affect the value of that pick with regards to "points".
Example. Bulldogs hold picks 13, 45, 49 and 67. A bid comes for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Instead of using 13 and 45 and 100 odd points from pick 49 to pay for the bid, Bulldogs trade 13 and 67 to Fremantle for picks 21 and 25, which cover the bid in its entirety, and keeps 45 and 49 intact, as they have two more kids later in next years draft as well.
Clubs will be incentivised to trade up and get ahead, or trade back and accumulate extra points, which to me means there will be very little matching of early bids with later first round picks.
In 2020 instead of pick 16 being pushed back to pick 19, it will be pushed back to pick 21.
Unless it’s an incredibly deep first round, picks in the mid to late first round might become the least sort after/wanted/valued picks in a draft.