2019 United Kingdom Election CONSERVATIVE WIN

[its free real estate]

Yeah I dunno, the SNP were consistent in their position (it was allowed in the indyref) and I'd have to check but think is Labour policy pre-existing.

Asking for it as contingent on the election being called is the desperation. That aside the franchise should only extend to citizens.

 

[Sainteric]

Racist

Says a supporter of corbyn

 

[The Warlord]

Which alternative universe does this guy live in. Aah lefty Oxford tower. Labours vote is about to be decimated by 10 to 20%

By who?

 

[ChappyUK]

By who?

Lib Dems.

They are the only real Remain party. Labour has pitched themselves in no mans land.

No one like Corbyn. Even lefty late night shows are bagging him out as much as Boris.

Some polls have the Tories on 40%

 

[The Warlord]

If the Johnson/Cummings plan is re-run the referendum in a general election, it won't end well for them.

 

[The Warlord]

Lib Dems.

They are the only real Remain party. Labour has pitched themselves in no mans land.

No one like Corbyn. Even lefty late night shows are bagging him out as much as Boris.

Some polls have the Tories on 40%

Polls mean nothing at this stage and the Lib Dems are just likely to take votes off the Tories.

The only element I see as sure is the SNP winning seats back off the Tories in Scotland.

 

[Mofra]

If the Johnson/Cummings plan is re-run the referendum in a general election, it won't end well for them.

Corbyn's pitch is to hold a second referendum.

Big gamble. Traditional heartlands in the midlands and north were pro-leave. I suspect whoever wins is going to face a nightmare of competing small parties holding the balance of power in the Commons.

 

[its free real estate]

Polls mean nothing at this stage and the Lib Dems are just likely to take votes off the Tories.

The only element I see as sure is the SNP winning seats back off the Tories in Scotland.

What path to government do you see for the non-Conservative parties?

 

[The Warlord]

Corbyn's pitch is to hold a second referendum.

Big gamble. Traditional heartlands in the midlands and north were pro-leave. I suspect whoever wins is going to face a nightmare of competing small parties holding the balance of power in the Commons.

I reckon the whole Labour Leave is massively overplayed.

Voting Leave one off three and a half years ago is very different to voting not just Tory but Boris Johnson Tory in six weeks time.

They're far more likely to vote Brexit Party, which screws Johnson.

Agree another hung parliament likely.

A Labour/SNP pact then comes into play.

But let's see what happens.

 

[The Warlord]

What path to government do you see for the non-Conservative parties?

Labour - SNP deal.

I can see a deal where the SNP support Labour in return for a new referendum on independence.

 

[Mofra]

Labour - SNP deal.

Quite possibly.

I did see interviews in Wigan last night, has been a Labour seat since 1918 and they are pro-Brexit. There is a real backlash against the major parties, an anti-London sentiment which seems pervasive across the UK. Reports from Nissan workers mirror the sentiment.

 

[its free real estate]

Labour - SNP deal.

I can see a deal where the SNP support Labour in return for a new referendum on independence.

You think Labour will win enough seats?
Personally I think this will be a bloodbath for Labour. Will require a very broad and unstable coalition for them to govern.

 

[The Warlord]

You think Labour will win enough seats?
Personally I think this will be a bloodbath for Labour. Will require a very broad and unstable coalition for them to govern.

Yeah I just don't know.

Will be interesting to see what plays out with the Brexit party and the Lib Dems.

I don't say any party having majority government.

 

[The Warlord]

FPTP is what makes this utterly unreadable. I reckon you'll see lots of seats won with very small majorities after significant tactical voting.

I also reckon the Remainers are more motivated turnout wise that the Leavers, especially the quasi-mythical Labour Leave voters of the Midlands or North.

Its the same with Trump v Clinton.

Who is going to be more motivated to out in the shitty December weather to vote?

Remainers who are all fired up, fear they were too lazy and complacent last time, and know this is their absolute last chance?

Or some Leavers who voted on a wide variety of issues in 2016 and have come to the view that its all stitch up innit anyway?

Obviously hardcore Leavers will still vote ... but will they vote Tory or BXT?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

 

[its free real estate]

FPTP is what makes this utterly unreadable. I reckon you'll see lots of seats won with very small majorities after significant tactical voting.

I also reckon the Remainers are more motivated turnout wise that the Leavers, especially the quasi-mythical Labour Leave voters of the Midlands or North.

Its the same with Trump v Clinton.

Who is going to be more motivated to out in the shitty December weather to vote?

Remainers who are all fired up, fear they were too lazy and complacent last time, and know this is their absolute last chance?

Or some Leavers who voted on a wide variety of issues in 2016 and have come to the view that its all stitch up innit anyway?

Obviously hardcore Leavers will still vote ... but will they vote Tory or BXT?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

the problem is the remain vote is even more split than the leave vote. BXP likely finished since Johnson became PM, only BXP holdouts are people who’d never vote Conservative

 

[The Warlord]

the problem is the remain vote is even more split than the leave vote. BXP likely finished since Johnson became PM, only BXP holdouts are people who’d never vote Conservative

Hence what I said about tactical voting re Remainers.

Dunno about that on Brexit Party and Johnson ... he did after all go to Brussels and negotiate a new deal. And didn't get them out by October 31.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

FPTP is what makes this utterly unreadable. I reckon you'll see lots of seats won with very small majorities after significant tactical voting.

I also reckon the Remainers are more motivated turnout wise that the Leavers, especially the quasi-mythical Labour Leave voters of the Midlands or North.

Its the same with Trump v Clinton.

Who is going to be more motivated to out in the shitty December weather to vote?

Remainers who are all fired up, fear they were too lazy and complacent last time, and know this is their absolute last chance?

Or some Leavers who voted on a wide variety of issues in 2016 and have come to the view that its all stitch up innit anyway?

Obviously hardcore Leavers will still vote ... but will they vote Tory or BXT?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

This is where the deal being discussed amongst the remainers is interesting. If pulled off, the Libs, Greens, ex-tories, and PC will agree to only stand one candidate in 70 welsh and english electorates, and incumbents will be allowed to run uncontested from the rest.

if that occurs, and if they coordinate it well (lots of ifs....) it will stop a lot of the fracturing of the remain voters under FPTP

 

[Bradesmaen]

Can't see either side winning a majority. Will just delay things more. Brexit Party will collapse to UKIP levels, won't get a seat. Look at how their vote collapsed after being a single issue joke party.

 

[its free real estate]

Hence what I said about tactical voting re Remainers.

Dunno about that on Brexit Party and Johnson ... he did after all go to Brussels and negotiate a new deal. And didn't get them out by October 31.

From all the evidence I’ve read, tactical voting makes zero difference to a result. Less than 1% vote tactically.

 

[aCunningPlan]

 

[its free real estate]

This is where the deal being discussed amongst the remainers is interesting. If pulled off, the Libs, Greens, ex-tories, and PC will agree to only stand one candidate in 70 welsh and english electorates, and incumbents will be allowed to run uncontested from the rest.

if that occurs, and if they coordinate it well (lots of ifs....) it will stop a lot of the fracturing of the remain voters under FPTP

If Labour aren’t a party to it it doesn’t matter.

 

[Lebbo73]

Your warped view of the world is about to cop another pasting Bomber. You’ll never wise up though because you’re too far gone.

 

[Leon]

Much though I hate Johnson (and Brexit), I’d be surprised if he didn’t win this.


Corbyn is pathetic.

 

[Lebbo73]

Which alternative universe does this guy live in. Aah lefty Oxford tower. Labours vote is about to be decimated by 10 to 20%

They’re going to cop a pounding not seen since black on white.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

If Labour aren’t a party to it it doesn’t matter.

This is a remain coalition, having labour on board kills that because Corbyn wants brexit